Global Information would like to present a new market research report, "Five year Forecast and Analysis on the United States Agriculture Crop Market" by Doane Advisory Service.
World grain stocks generally peaked around 2000 then began a steep decline, but there has been a pretty dramatic rebound in stocks recently, especially for wheat. The world wheat stock to use ratio was near 36 percent at the beginning of the decade, but that was reduced to less than 20 percent at the end of 2007/08. The tight stocks led to high prices, inducing farmers to boost acreage. Couple that with above trend yields in both 2008 and 2009, and world wheat stocks have come roaring back. USDA predicts that the world wheat stocks to use ratio will be back up above the 30 percent mark at the end of the 2009/10 crop year. World stocks of rice and corn have bounced higher over the last few years, but stocks remain tight and weather problems could bring back concerns about shortages pretty quickly.
Net cash farm income declined sharply in 2009 as crop prices dropped from the record highs recorded in 2008. Livestock producers were hardest hit with low output prices and relatively high feed costs squeezing profits. Crop cash receipts were also down last year, but a large part of the decline in receipts was offset by falling input costs.