Global Information would like to present a market research report, "The Economics of Aluminium, 9th edition 2009" by Roskill Information Services, Ltd..
World aluminium output rose by between 0.15 and 12.2%py between 1994 and 2008, averaging 5%py. Growth averaged almost 8%py after 2002 mainly due to explosive expansion in production in China. Output began to contract in the second half of 2008 and this accelerated in 2009, meaning that world aluminium production is likely to decline for the first time in fifteen years and by as much as 15 - 20%.
In common with most other aspects of the global economy, demand for aluminium slowed sharply in the third quarter of 2008 and was declining in most regions in early 2009. The Chinese market for aluminium is still expected to grow in 2009, albeit at only 3%, but in Europe, North America and Japan, demand for aluminium will almost certainly fall in 2009 and will either level out or show minimal growth in 2010. The market should start to recover in the second half of 2010 and global growth of 4 to 5% is forecast for 2011, led by China. Average growth in the global aluminium market to 2013 is likely to be around 2 to 3%py, resulting in total demand of about 58Mt.