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Domestic Central Heating Market Report - UK 2012-2016 Analysis

Abstract

INTRODUCTION and OVERVIEW

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AMA Research are pleased to announce the publication of the eleventh edition of the report "Domestic Central Heating Market Report - UK 2012-2016 Analysis". The report represents an informed and up-to-date and detailed review of the market and offers excellent value for money.


Key issues covered in the report:

  • Boilers - Combination, Traditional, System etc.
  • Radiators - Standard Panel, Decorative, Towel Warmers etc.
  • Circulator Pumps - Stand-alone, Boiler-integrated.
  • Heating Controls - Programmable Thermostats, Wireless, TRVs, Compensators etc.

The report reviews developments within the industry, with emphasis on both QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE market assessment - both essential requirements to good marketing planning. Recent trends, key influencing factors and forecasts of future developments are assessed.

The UK domestic heating market is significant, with an estimated total value of £980 million at manufacturers selling prices in 2011. Like other products in the building industry this market has been impacted overall by the global financial crisis and resulting decline in UK housebuilding. However, future prospects look more positive with planned government measures such as the Green Deal and the roll-out of smart meters across the UK, which will help to stimulate this market from 2013.

Of particular interest:-

  • Impact of increasing legislation regarding the efficiency and environmental impact of domestic heating systems - EuP, Part L, Code for Sustainable Homes.
  • Significant market opportunities in the replacement sector - there is still a considerable number of inefficient non-condensing boilers in UK homes.
  • Impact of new build trends on the domestic central heating market - shift towards flats, increasing use of renewable technologies as a source of fuel.
  • Introduction of the Green Deal allowing installation of energy efficiency measures in homes at no upfront cost.
  • Roll out of smart metering and the increased consumer focus on energy efficient central heating products.
  • Trend towards low carbon homes that use a combination of fossil fuel and renewable heat sources.

Companies include:

Abacus Direct, ACV, Ariston Thermo Group, Armstrong Integrated, Baxi Heating UK, Biasi, Broag, Calpeda, Danfoss Randall, Double Quick, Ferroli, Glen Dimplex Group, Glow- worm, Grant Engineering, Grundfos, Heatline, Honeywell, Ideal Heating, Invensys Controls, Jaga Heating Products, JIS (Europe), Johnson and Starley, Kermi, Keston Heating, Kudox, Laing GmbH, MHS, Myson, Pegler Yorkshire, Quinn Radiators, Radiating Style, Radox Radiators, Ravenheat, Rettig, Salus Controls, Secure Controls, Siemens Building Technologies, Sime, Smedegaard, Stelrad Radiators, Strebel, Sunvic Controls, TFC Group, The Radiator Compan, Timeguard, Tuscan Foundry Products, Ultra Finishing, Vaillant Group, Viessmann, Vogue, Vokera, Wilo, Worcester Bosch Group, Zehnder.

Key areas covered in the report include :

CENTRAL HEATING

  • Market development of central heating installations. Product mix - boilers, radiators, pumps, controls. Ownership levels, penetration by sector, share by type of application - replacement, new build, first time installation. Source of fuel - mains gas, LPG, oil, solid fuel, and electric. Underfloor heating market. Environmental concerns - the Green Deal, CSH, and smart meters. Renewable energy technologies - ground source heat pumps, air source heat pumps, micro-CHP, and biomass. Trends for the future and key influencing factors.

BOILERS

  • Boiler market size, trends and future prospects - legislative changes, condensing sales, new build trends, impact of renewable heating solutions etc. Market share by mix of fuel - gas-fired, oil-fired, electric etc. Market mix by location - wall mounted, floor standing, back boiler etc. Product mix by type of boiler - combination, system, traditional etc. Government grants - Boiler Scrappage Scheme, Warm Front etc. Major suppliers - market shares, strengths, key characteristics, turnover etc. Forecasts through to 2016.

RADIATORS

  • Radiator market size, trends and future prospects - the increasing importance of thermal performance, growth of decorative styles, new build trends, impact of UFH etc. Product mix by type of radiator - standard, decorative, towel warmer. Key product trends - design, materials, finish, colour, functionality, and innovation. Radiator suppliers - market shares, turnover, strengths and opportunities. Forecasts through to 2016.

CIRCULATOR PUMPS

  • Circulator pump market development and forecasts - legislative changes, influence of boiler trends etc. Product mix by type of circulator - stand-alone, boiler-integrated. Key product trends - high efficiency circulators, move towards boiler-integrated etc. Supplier market shares, key companies, strengths and characteristics etc. Forecasts through to 2016.

HEATING CONTROLS

  • Heating controls market size, trends and forecasts - market opportunities, impact of legislation etc. Ownership levels - types of heating controls used. Product mix - programmers, thermostats, TRVs, motorized valves, compensators etc. Key product trends - remote monitoring, zoning, wireless technology, development of compensators etc. Major suppliers, market shares, strengths and key characteristics. Forecasts through to 2016.

DISTRIBUTION

  • Distribution of domestic central heating products - Market mix by channel - builders and plumbers' merchants, DIY multiples, electrical wholesalers, Internet e-tailers, other retail, OEMs etc. Key companies, shares, strengths and characteristics etc.

SUMMARY OF REPORT CONTENTS

UK Domestic Central Heating Market by Value (£m MSP) 2008-2014

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The UK domestic heating market is significant, with an estimated total value of £980 million at manufacturers selling prices (MSP) in 2011. The market is essentially mature; around 93% of all UK homes have some type of central heating installed. However, growth opportunities exist through product innovation/design to improve thermal performance, energy efficiency and control/flexibility. Other influences on this market include the growing concerns about energy efficiency and the environment. The government has introduced a significant amount of environmental legislation in recent years placing a greater emphasis on carbon emissions and fuel efficiency.


The UK domestic central heating market has been volatile over the last 5 years. In common with other products in the building industry, the market has been impacted overall by the global financial crisis and resulting decline in UK housebuilding and home moving.

Estimated at £564 million at MSP in 2012, the boiler sector dominates the industry's sales. This is followed by radiators (£231m), heating controls (£119m) and circulator pumps (£37m).

In 2012, the market for domestic central heating products can be broken down into three key areas: refurbishment (81%), first time installations (10%) and new build (9%).

The majority of these products are distributed via the trade channels such as builders/plumbers merchants (64%) and electrical wholesalers (5%).

The outlook for the UK domestic central heating market in Q4-2012 remains uncertain. Medium-longer term prospects are dependent on the timing, speed and scale of recovery in the UK economy, with the related upturn in housebuilding and improvement in consumer confidence and spending. However, planned government measures such as the Green Deal and the roll-out of smart meters across the UK may help to stimulate this market from 2013.

The future performance of the UK domestic heating market is likely to be influenced by overall trends in house building, home improvement, fuel prices, energy efficiency legislation, renewable technologies, levels of personal disposable income, also niche market drivers such as the self build and conservatory markets. In addition, given that fossil fuels are diminishing and government targets for reduced CO2 emissions have to be met, the impact of renewable technologies on the UK central heating industry in the medium to longer term is likely to be significant.

A major area of support for the market is expected to come from the domestic refurbishment sector. With rising fuel prices and new legislative measures, householders are now more aware of energy efficiency and the environmental impact of domestic central heating products.

By 2016 the market value is forecast to be around £1.06 billion at MSP, which would represent an increase of 11% compared to the market size in 2012.

Table of Contents

CONTENTS and LIST OF TABLES & CHARTS

1 INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 BACKGROUND

2 SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

  • 2.1 SUMMARY
  • 2.2 KEY TRENDS
  • 2.3 FUTURE PROSPECTS

3 HOUSING AND ECONOMIC INFLUENCES

  • 3.1 GDP
  • 3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES
  • 3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT
  • 3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
  • 3.5 STERLING
  • 3.6 POPULATION PROFILE
  • 3.7 DOMESTIC HOUSING
    • 3.7.1 House Building Completions
    • 3.7.2 Mix of Housebuilding Completions
    • 3.7.3 House Moving Levels
    • 3.7.4 House Prices
    • 3.7.5 Self Build Market
    • 3.7.6 Conservatory Market
  • 3.8 CONCLUSIONS

4 UK MARKET FOR DOMESTIC CENTRAL HEATING

  • 4.1 DEFINITION
  • 4.2 MARKET OVERVIEW
    • 4.2.1 Market Size by Value 2007 - 2016
    • 4.2.2 Product Mix (Boilers, Radiators, Heating Controls, Circulators)
    • 4.2.3 Household Penetration (Overall Market, Tenure, Type of Boiler)
    • 4.2.4 Type of Installation (Replacement, New Housing, First Time)
    • 4.2.5 Source of Fuel
  • 4.3 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES
    • 4.3.1 Underfloor Heating Market
    • 4.3.2 Environmental Concerns (CSH, Green Deal, Smart Meters)
    • 4.3.3 Renewable Energy Technologies (Heat Pumps, Biomass, CHP, RHI, Feed-in Tariff)

5 BOILERS

  • 5.1 MARKET OVERVIEW
    • 5.1.1 Definition
    • 5.1.2 Market Size by Value 2007 - 2016
    • 5.1.3 Market Background
    • 5.1.4 Future Prospects
  • 5.2 MARKET TRENDS
    • 5.2.1 Fuel Used (Boiler Mix by Type, Passive Flue Gas Recovery Units)
    • 5.2.2 Location (Wall Mounted, Floor Standing, Back Boilers)
    • 5.2.3 Legislative Changes (Part L, EuP Directive)
    • 5.2.4 Government Grants (Boiler Scrappage Scheme, Warm Front)
    • 5.2.5 Imports and Exports
  • 5.3 PRODUCT TRENDS
    • 5.3.1 Product Mix
    • 5.3.2 Combination Boilers
    • 5.3.3 Traditional Boilers (Heat-only, Regular)
    • 5.3.4 System Boilers
    • 5.3.5 Other Boilers (Back Boilers, Electric Boilers)
  • 5.4 SUPPLIERS
    • 5.4.1 Market Shares
    • 5.4.2 Key Company Profiles
    • 5.4.3 Other Suppliers

6 RADIATORS

  • 6.1 MARKET OVERVIEW
    • 6.1.1 Definition
    • 6.1.2 Market Size by Value 2007 - 2016
    • 6.1.3 Market Background
    • 6.1.4 Future Prospects
  • 6.2 PRODUCT TRENDS
    • 6.2.1 Product Mix
    • 6.2.2 Standard Radiators (Panel, Compact, LST, Column, Fan Convector)
    • 6.2.3 Decorative Radiators
    • 6.2.4 Towel Warmers
  • 6.3 SUPPLIERS
    • 6.3.1 Market Shares
    • 6.3.2 Key Company Profiles
    • 6.3.3 Other Suppliers

7 CIRCULATOR PUMPS

  • 7.1 MARKET OVERVIEW
    • 7.1.1 Definition
    • 7.1.2 Market Size by Value 2007 - 2016
    • 7.1.3 Market Background
    • 7.1.4 Future Prospects
  • 7.2 PRODUCT TRENDS
    • 7.2.1 Product Mix
    • 7.2.2 Stand-alone Circulators (Independent Circulators)
    • 7.2.3 Boiler-integrated Circulators
  • 7.3 SUPPLIERS
    • 7.3.1 Market Shares
    • 7.3.2 Key Company Profiles

8 HEATING CONTROLS

  • 8.1 MARKET OVERVIEW
    • 8.1.1 Definition
    • 8.1.2 Market Size by Value 2007 - 2016
    • 8.1.3 Market Background
    • 8.1.4 Future Prospects
    • 8.1.5 Home Ownership
    • 8.1.6 Legislative Changes (Part L)
  • 8.2 PRODUCT TRENDS
    • 8.2.1 Product Mix - Thermostats, Programmers, TRVs, Valves etc
    • 8.2.2 Room Thermostats (including Programmable Room Thermostats)
    • 8.2.3 Programmers
    • 8.2.4 Thermostatic Radiator Valves (TRVs)
    • 8.2.5 Motorised Valves
    • 8.2.6 Boiler Load Compensators (including Weather Compensators)
  • 8.3 SUPPLIERS
    • 8.3.1 Market Shares
    • 8.3.2 Key Company Profiles

9 DISTRIBUTION

  • 9.1 CHANNEL SHARES - MERCHANTS, DIY MULTIPLES, INTERNET, WHOLESALERS
  • 9.2 KEY COMPANIES
    • 9.2.1 Merchants
    • 9.2.2 DIY Multiples
    • 9.2.3 Electrical Wholesalers
    • 9.2.4 Internet e-tailers
    • 9.2.5 Other

TABLES AND CHARTS

  • CHART 1 UK DOMESTIC CENTRAL HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2007-2016
  • TABLE 2 GDP DATA - 2010-2012 - KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS
  • CHART 3 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 1992-2016
  • CHART 4 PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 1992-2016
  • TABLE 5 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2008-2014 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES
  • TABLE 6 UK HOUSE BUILDING COMPLETIONS 2008-2014 ('000 DWELLINGS)
  • CHART 7 MIX OF HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS IN ENGLAND BY TYPE OF DWELLING (HOUSES, FLATS) - BY VOLUME 2001-2012
  • TABLE 8 UK RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS VALUED AT £40K OR ABOVE - BY VOLUME 2007-2011
  • TABLE 9 UK SELF BUILD MARKET BY VOLUME (000'S) 2008-2013
  • TABLE 10 UK CONSERVATORIES MARKET BY VALUE (£M RSP) 2008-2013
  • TABLE 11 UK DOMESTIC CENTRAL HEATING MARKET - BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2007-2016
  • CHART 12 MARKET MIX BY PRODUCT TYPE (BOILERS, RADIATORS, HEATING CONTROLS, CIRCULATORS) - BY VALUE 2011
  • CHART 13 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING IN ENGLAND - 1996, 2003 AND 2010
  • CHART 14 VOLUME OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING IN ENGLAND BY TENURE (OWNER OCCUPIED, PRIVATE RENTED, HAS, LAS) 2010
  • CHART 15 VOLUME OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING IN ENGLAND BY BOILER TYPE (CONDENSING, NON CONDENSING - STANDARD, COMBINATION) 2010
  • CHART 16 MARKET MIX BY TYPE OF INSTALLATION (REPLACEMENT, NEW HOUSING, FIRST TIME EXISTING HOUSING) - BY VOLUME 2011
  • CHART 17 MARKET MIX BY SOURCE OF FUEL USED (GAS, OIL, OTHER ETC.) - BY VOLUME 2011
  • CHART 18 RETAIL PRICE INDICES OF DOMESTIC FUEL (GAS, ELECTRICITY, OIL, COAL) Q2 2011 - Q2 2012
  • TABLE 19 UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2007-2011
  • CHART 20 ROLL-OUT OF SMART METER INSTALLATIONS - BY VOLUME 2014-20
  • TABLE 21 UK DOMESTIC BOILER MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2007-2016
  • CHART 22 BOILER SALES MIX BY TYPE OF FUEL (GAS-FIRED, OIL-FIRED, ELECTRIC, ETC.) - BY VOLUME 2011
  • CHART 22 BOILER SALES MIX BY LOCATION (WALL MOUNTED, FLOOR STANDING) BY VOLUME 2011
  • CHART 24 BOILER MIX BY TYPE (COMBINATION, TRADITIONAL, SYSTEM, ETC.) - BY VOLUME 2011
  • TABLE 25 DOMESTIC BOILER SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES - BY VALUE 2011
  • TABLE 26 UK DOMESTIC RADIATOR MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2007-2016
  • CHART 27 RADIATOR MIX BY TYPE (STANDARD, DECORATIVE, TOWEL WARMERS) - BY VALUE 2011
  • TABLE 28 DOMESTIC RADIATOR SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES - BY VALUE 2011
  • TABLE 29 UK DOMESTIC CIRCULATOR MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2007-2016
  • CHART 30 CIRCULATOR PRODUCT MIX (BOILER-INTEGRATED, STAND-ALONE) - BY VOLUME 2011
  • CHART 31 ANNUAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (FIXED SPEED CIRCULATORS, VARIABLE SPEED CIRCULATORS) - BY KWH
  • TABLE 32 CIRCULATOR SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARE - BY VALUE 2011
  • TABLE 33 UK DOMESTIC HEATING CONTROLS MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2007-2016
  • CHART 34 HOME OWNERSHIP OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF DOMESTIC HEATING CONTROLS - % BY VOLUME 2011
  • CHART 35 HEATING CONTROLS PRODUCT MIX - THERMOSTATS, PROGRAMMERS, TRVS, MOTORISED VALVES, COMPENSATORS - BY VALUE 2011
  • TABLE 36 DOMESTIC HEATING CONTROLS - LEADING SUPPLIERS 2011
  • CHART 37 MARKET DISTRIBUTION BY CHANNEL (MERCHANTS, DIY MULTIPLES, INTERNET, ELECTRICAL WHOLESALERS, ETC.) - BY VOLUME 2011
  • CHART 38 UK MERCHANTS % MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2011
  • CHART 39 UK ELECTRICAL WHOLESALERS % MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2011
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