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Pay TV in Europe: Forecasts and Analysis 2012-2017

Secondary TV sets are the most vulnerable to OTT services: pay-TV operators must reduce their prices in order to defend market share.

The pay-TV market is evolving, and boundaries are increasingly blurred between pay and free-to-air (FTA) TV services. Our forecasts take a holistic view of the market, including paid-for over-the-top (OTT) video as well as traditional pay-TV services.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for the number of pay-TV households, services (both primary and secondary), spend (split into linear and on-demand) and average spend per subscriber (ASPS)
  • split by platform: cable (all cable, analogue cable and digital cable), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite, pay analogue terrestrial and OTT services
  • forecasts based on the following countries and regional groupings: the Baltics, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the UK, Ukraine; the rest of Central and Eastern Europe; the rest of Western Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Europe; and Europe as a whole
  • an overview of the key trends and drivers in the market
  • recommendations for traditional pay-TV operators.

About the author

Cesar Bachelet (Senior Analyst) has more than 20 years' experience of the telecoms industry, and specialises in triple-play services, with a focus on pay TV, as well as emerging services and devices within the digital home. He has conducted research and delivered presentations on a wide range of topics, including fixed voice, broadband and video services, bundling and convergence strategies. He also contributes to various media-focused consulting projects. Before joining Analysys Mason, Cesar worked for various analyst companies, including Ovum. Prior to this, he worked for telecoms operator BT, where he held a range of positions, including those of Competitor Analyst in the Consumer Division (now BT Retail) and Market Analyst in BT Ignite's ASP (application service provision) unit (now BT Global Services), for 14 years.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary [1]
  • 7. Executive summary [2]
  • 8. Recommendations
  • 9. Recommendations [1]
  • 10. Recommendations [2]
  • 11. Recommendations [3]
  • 12. Forecast
  • 13. Pay-TV growth in Europe will be driven by IPTV, satellite and OTT video services while cable declines
  • 14. IPTV will account for most new pay-TV subscribers in Western Europe
  • 15. Satellite benefits from lower fixed density in Central and Eastern Europe
  • 16. Satellite is poised to overtake cable as the leading platform in Central and Eastern Europe
  • 17. The decline of analogue cable will reduce the penetration of traditional pay-TV operator multi-room services in Europe
  • 18. OTT video services will account for just under half of all secondary pay-TV services in Western Europe in 2017
  • 19. Lack of content and connectivity will initially hold back the growth of OTT video services in Central and Eastern Europe
  • 20. OTT video services are the largest single contributor to increased pay-TV spend in Europe
  • 21. Launch of OTT video services by traditional pay-TV operators boosts spend on OTT services in Western Europe
  • 22. Transition to digital cable services is the key contributor to increased spend in Central and Eastern Europe
  • 23. ASPS in Western Europe
  • 24. ASPS in Central and Eastern Europe
  • 25. The evolution of ASPS is subject to conflicting pressures, making it more challenging for pay-TV operators to monetise their subscriber base
  • 26. Western European average penetration of traditional pay TV masks significant disparities between individual countries
  • 27. Some countries in Central and Eastern Europe have reached saturation, in spite of lower overall penetration in the region
  • 28. Market drivers and inhibitors
  • 29. Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [1]
  • 30. Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [2]
  • 31. Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [3]
  • 32. Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [4]
  • 33. Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [5]
  • 34. Business environment
  • 35. Consumer appetite for video content continues, but increasing competition makes this harder to monetise
  • 36. OTT video services will become more popular as long-form online video moves from the PC to the TV
  • 37. Cable operators with large legacy analogue subscriber bases are under threat from a wide range of digital TV alternatives
  • 38. Pay-DTT is losing its appeal in Western Europe after early successes
  • 39. Satellite operators are using broadband-connected STBs to deliver true on-demand services
  • 40. Telcos are gaining ground in pay-TV services
  • 41. Market definition
  • 42. Regional breakdown used in this report
  • 43. Measures provided in the data annex
  • 44. Definitions used in this report
  • 45. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 46. About the author
  • 47. About Analysys Mason
  • 48. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 49. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Primary pay-TV services by platform, Europe, 2012 and 2017
  • Figure 2: Secondary pay-TV services by platform, Europe, 2012 and 2017
  • Figure 3: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 4: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 5: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 6: Household penetration, primary services by platform, Europe, Western Europe, and Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 and 2017
  • Figure 7: Secondary pay-TV services by platform, Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 8: Secondary pay-TV services by platform, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 9: Secondary pay-TV services by platform, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 10: Pay-TV spend by platform, Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 11: Pay-TV spend by platform, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 12: Pay-TV spend by platform, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 13: Average spend per subscriber for traditional pay-TV services by type, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 14: Average spend per subscriber for traditional pay-TV services by type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 15: Pressures on average spend per user for pay-TV services
  • Figure 16: Household penetration of traditional pay-TV services, by country/region, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 17: Household penetration of traditional pay-TV services, by country/region, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 18: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-TV market
  • Figure 19: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-TV market
  • Figure 20: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-TV market
  • Figure 21: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-TV market
  • Figure 22: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-TV market
  • Figure 23: Regional breakdown used in this report
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