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LTE Infrastructure: Worldwide Demand Drivers and Base Station Forecast 2012-2017

Abstract

Three out of four base stations shipped between 2012 and 2017 will be deployed in emerging markets.

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The proliferation of smart devices in developed markets and the extension of mobile services in emerging markets is driving traffic growth, but the network capacity needs to expand to support this growth. The number of base stations deployed is set to grow at a 41% CAGR worldwide between 2012 and 2017. The market for all 3GPP air interface technologies - GSM, UMTS and LTE - will grow during the next five years.

This Report provides:

a clear statement of the market growth potential for GSM, UMTS and LTE base stations

a forecast of:

  • mobile connections
  • traffic per connection
  • devices in use, split by type (smartphones, non-smartphones, mobile broadband devices and tablets)
  • annual base station deployments, split by technology (GSM, UMTS and LTE)
  • annual base stations replaced as part of RAN refresh activity
  • total annual base station deployments, including RAN refresh.

worldwide data, which is also split into eight geographical regions:

  • North America
  • Caribbean and Latin America
  • Western Europe
  • Central and Eastern Europe
  • the Middle East and North Africa
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Developed Asia - Pacific
  • Emerging Asia - Pacific.

an analysis of the four key factors affecting network roll-out strategies in each region:

  • the age of the installed base
  • the impact of Wi-Fi offload
  • the availability of spectrum
  • the likelihood of network-sharing agreements.

a discussion of the network evolution path in each region, including network capacity upgrades

a detailed discussion of the benefits and drivers behind the LTE market, including LTE-Advanced and heterogeneous networks

an examination of the benefits of LTE in comparison with HSPA.

Table of Contents

  • 7.Executive summary
  • 8.Executive summary [1]
  • 9.Executive summary [2]
  • 10.Summary by region: NA and CALA
  • 11.Summary by region: WE and CEE
  • 12.Summary by region: MENA and SSA
  • 13.Summary by region: DVAP and EMAP
  • 14.Key implications
  • 15.Key implications
  • 16.Market definition
  • 17.The forecast takes into account RAN refresh, heterogeneous networks, offloading and network sharing, but excludes TD-LTE
  • 18.The forecast does not take into account the migration from CDMA to LTE
  • 19.Definition of geographical regions [1]
  • 20.Definition of geographical regions [2]
  • 21.Forecasts
  • 22.Forecasts: North America
  • 23.North America forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum availability and RAN refresh
  • 24.North America forecast assumptions: network sharing
  • 25.North America: connections, traffic per connections and devices in use
  • 26.North America: network capacity upgrades
  • 27.North America: base station deployments
  • 28.North America: RAN refresh and total deployments
  • 29.Forecasts: Caribbean and Latin America
  • 30.Caribbean and Latin America forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum availability and RAN refresh
  • 31.Caribbean and Latin America forecast assumptions: network sharing
  • 32.Caribbean and Latin America: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
  • 33.Caribbean and Latin America: network capacity upgrades
  • 34.Caribbean and Latin America: base station deployments
  • 35.Caribbean and Latin America: RAN refresh and total deployments
  • 36.Forecasts: Western Europe
  • 37.Western Europe forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum availability and RAN refresh
  • 38.Western Europe forecast assumptions: network sharing
  • 39.Western Europe: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
  • 40.Western Europe: network capacity upgrades
  • 41.Western Europe: base station deployments
  • 42.Western Europe: RAN refresh and total deployments
  • 43.Forecasts: Central and Eastern Europe
  • 44.Central and Eastern Europe forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum availability and RAN refresh
  • 45.Central and Eastern Europe forecast assumptions: network sharing
  • 46.Central and Eastern Europe: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
  • 47.Central and Eastern Europe: network capacity upgrades
  • 48.Central and Eastern Europe: base station deployments
  • 49.Central and Eastern Europe: RAN refresh and total deployments
  • 50.Forecasts: The Middle East and North Africa
  • 51.The Middle East and North Africa forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum availability and RAN refresh
  • 52.The Middle East and North Africa forecast assumptions: network sharing
  • 53.The Middle East and North Africa: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
  • 54.The Middle East and North Africa: network capacity upgrades
  • 55.The Middle East and North Africa: base station deployments
  • 56.The Middle East and North Africa: RAN refresh and total deployments
  • 57.Forecasts: Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 58.Sub-Saharan Africa forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload and spectrum availability
  • 59.Sub-Saharan Africa forecast assumptions: RAN refresh and network sharing
  • 60.Sub-Saharan Africa: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
  • 61.Sub-Saharan Africa: network capacity upgrades
  • 62.Sub-Saharan Africa: base station deployments
  • 63.Sub-Saharan Africa: RAN refresh and total deployments
  • 64.Forecasts: Developed Asia - Pacific
  • 65.Developed Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload
  • 66.Developed Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: spectrum availability and RAN refresh
  • 67.Developed Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: network sharing
  • 68.Developed Asia - Pacific: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
  • 69.Developed Asia - Pacific: network capacity upgrades
  • 70.Developed Asia - Pacific: base station deployments
  • 71.Developed Asia - Pacific: RAN refresh and total deployments
  • 72.Forecasts: Emerging Asia - Pacific
  • 73.Emerging Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload
  • 74.Emerging Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: spectrum availability
  • 75.Emerging Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: RAN refresh
  • 76.Emerging Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: network sharing
  • 77.Emerging Asia - Pacific: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
  • 78.Emerging Asia - Pacific: network capacity upgrades
  • 79.Emerging Asia - Pacific: base station deployments
  • 80.Emerging Asia - Pacific: RAN refresh and total deployments
  • 81.Market drivers and inhibitors
  • 82.MNOs want to increase throughput and reduce latency
  • 83.The main driver behind LTE adoption is access to spectrum
  • 84.In addition to new spectrum, LTE offers access to wider bandwidths
  • 85.LTE enables improved spectrum utilisation, but not spectrum efficiency
  • 86.LTE enables heterogeneous networks
  • 87.LTE offers improved interference management techniques: ICIC
  • 88.LTE offers improved interference management techniques: CoMP
  • 89.Smart antenna systems
  • 90.Spectrum utilisation: smart antenna systems
  • 91.Easier Web access as a driver for LTE: all-IP and reduced latency
  • 92.LTE offers a roadmap for the continuing development of access network technology [1]
  • 93.LTE offers a roadmap for the continuing development of access network technology [2]
  • 94.LTE is not the only technology to offer a roadmap for the continuing development of access network technology
  • 95.Voice and the all-IP LTE network: a driver or an inhibitor?
  • 96.Business environment
  • 97.The business environment for LTE
  • 98.Migrating technologies: CDMA and WiMAX
  • 99.Complementary and competing technologies: HSPA
  • 100.Complementary and competing technologies: Wi-Fi
  • 101.Regulatory changes
  • 102.Methodology
  • 103.Forecast methodology: a four-step process
  • 104.Step 1: determining the number of subscribers, or connections, in a region
  • 105.Step 2: determining the number of subscribers that a typical base station supports in a region [1]
  • 106.Step 2: determining the number of subscribers that a typical base station supports in a region [2]
  • 107.Step 2: determining the number of subscribers that a typical base station supports in a region [3]
  • 108.Step 3: determining the network loading on the region's GSM, UMTS and LTE networks from the multi-mode devices
  • 109.Step 4: estimating the number of base stations that need to be deployed
  • 110.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 111.About the author
  • 112.About Analysys Mason
  • 113.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 114.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Cumulative new base station deployments by technology, worldwide, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 2: Base station refresh deployments by technology, worldwide, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 3: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, and number of sites, worldwide, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 4: CDMA and 3GPP subscribers, worldwide, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 5: Regional breakdown used in this report
  • Figure 6: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, North America, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 7: Mobile devices in use by type, North America, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 8: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for North America
  • Figure 9: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, North America, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 10: Base station refresh deployments by technology, North America, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 11: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, North America, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Caribbean and Latin America, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 13: Mobile devices in use by type, Caribbean and Latin America, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 14: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Caribbean and Latin America
  • Figure 15: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Caribbean and Latin America, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 16: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Caribbean and Latin America, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 17: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Caribbean and Latin America, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 18: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 19: Mobile devices in use by type, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 20: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Western Europe
  • Figure 21: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 22: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 23: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 24: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 25: Mobile devices in use by type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 26: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Central and Eastern Europe
  • Figure 27: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 28: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 29: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 30: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, the Middle East and North Africa, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 31: Mobile devices in use by type, the Middle East and North Africa, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 32: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 33: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, the Middle East and North Africa, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 34: Base station refresh deployments by technology, the Middle East and North Africa, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 35: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, the Middle East and North Africa, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 36: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 37: Mobile devices in use by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 38: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 39: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 40: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 41: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 42: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Developed Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 43: Mobile devices in use by type, Developed Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 44: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Developed Asia - Pacific
  • Figure 45: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Developed Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 46: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Developed Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 47: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Developed Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 48: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Emerging Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 49: Mobile devices in use by type, Emerging Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 50: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for Emerging Asia - Pacific
  • Figure 51: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Emerging Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 52: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Emerging Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 53: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Emerging Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
  • Figure 54: Frequency bands where LTE spectrum is available, selected regions and countries, April 2012
  • Figure 55: LTE, LTE-Advanced, and IMT-Advanced performance targets for downlink (DL) and uplink (UL)
  • Figure 56: Examples of WiMAX operators that are planning to migrate to LTE
  • Figure 57: Methodology for determining 3GPP subscribers per region
  • Figure 58: Methodology for determining 3GPP cell capacity
  • Figure 59: Spectral efficiency assumptions used in the forecast
  • Figure 60: Percentage spread of a typical capacity intervention across a given region over the forecast period
  • Figure 61: Methodology for determining 3GPP distribution of cell load per 3GPP air interface
  • Figure 62: Methodology for determining the number of base stations that need to be deployed
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