Three out of four base stations shipped between 2012 and 2017 will be deployed
in emerging markets.
The proliferation of smart devices in developed markets and the extension of
mobile services in emerging markets is driving traffic growth, but the network
capacity needs to expand to support this growth. The number of base stations
deployed is set to grow at a 41% CAGR worldwide between 2012 and 2017. The
market for all 3GPP air interface technologies - GSM, UMTS and LTE - will grow
during the next five years.
This Report provides:
a clear statement of the market growth potential for GSM, UMTS and LTE base
stations
a forecast of:
mobile connections
traffic per connection
devices in use, split by type (smartphones, non-smartphones, mobile
broadband devices and tablets)
annual base station deployments, split by technology (GSM, UMTS and LTE)
annual base stations replaced as part of RAN refresh activity
total annual base station deployments, including RAN refresh.
worldwide data, which is also split into eight geographical regions:
North America
Caribbean and Latin America
Western Europe
Central and Eastern Europe
the Middle East and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Developed Asia - Pacific
Emerging Asia - Pacific.
an analysis of the four key factors affecting network roll-out strategies in each region:
the age of the installed base
the impact of Wi-Fi offload
the availability of spectrum
the likelihood of network-sharing agreements.
a discussion of the network evolution path in each region, including network
capacity upgrades
a detailed discussion of the benefits and drivers behind the LTE market,
including LTE-Advanced and heterogeneous networks
an examination of the benefits of LTE in comparison with HSPA.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
7.Executive summary
8.Executive summary [1]
9.Executive summary [2]
10.Summary by region: NA and CALA
11.Summary by region: WE and CEE
12.Summary by region: MENA and SSA
13.Summary by region: DVAP and EMAP
14.Key implications
15.Key implications
16.Market definition
17.The forecast takes into account RAN refresh, heterogeneous networks,
offloading and network sharing, but excludes TD-LTE
18.The forecast does not take into account the migration from CDMA to LTE
19.Definition of geographical regions [1]
20.Definition of geographical regions [2]
21.Forecasts
22.Forecasts: North America
23.North America forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum
availability and RAN refresh
24.North America forecast assumptions: network sharing
25.North America: connections, traffic per connections and devices in use
26.North America: network capacity upgrades
27.North America: base station deployments
28.North America: RAN refresh and total deployments
29.Forecasts: Caribbean and Latin America
30.Caribbean and Latin America forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload,
spectrum availability and RAN refresh
31.Caribbean and Latin America forecast assumptions: network sharing
32.Caribbean and Latin America: connections, traffic per connection and
devices in use
33.Caribbean and Latin America: network capacity upgrades
34.Caribbean and Latin America: base station deployments
35.Caribbean and Latin America: RAN refresh and total deployments
36.Forecasts: Western Europe
37.Western Europe forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload, spectrum
availability and RAN refresh
38.Western Europe forecast assumptions: network sharing
39.Western Europe: connections, traffic per connection and devices in use
40.Western Europe: network capacity upgrades
41.Western Europe: base station deployments
42.Western Europe: RAN refresh and total deployments
43.Forecasts: Central and Eastern Europe
44.Central and Eastern Europe forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload,
spectrum availability and RAN refresh
45.Central and Eastern Europe forecast assumptions: network sharing
46.Central and Eastern Europe: connections, traffic per connection and
devices in use
47.Central and Eastern Europe: network capacity upgrades
48.Central and Eastern Europe: base station deployments
49.Central and Eastern Europe: RAN refresh and total deployments
50.Forecasts: The Middle East and North Africa
51.The Middle East and North Africa forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload,
spectrum availability and RAN refresh
52.The Middle East and North Africa forecast assumptions: network sharing
53.The Middle East and North Africa: connections, traffic per connection
and devices in use
54.The Middle East and North Africa: network capacity upgrades
55.The Middle East and North Africa: base station deployments
56.The Middle East and North Africa: RAN refresh and total deployments
57.Forecasts: Sub-Saharan Africa
58.Sub-Saharan Africa forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload and spectrum
availability
59.Sub-Saharan Africa forecast assumptions: RAN refresh and network sharing
60.Sub-Saharan Africa: connections, traffic per connection and devices in
use
61.Sub-Saharan Africa: network capacity upgrades
62.Sub-Saharan Africa: base station deployments
63.Sub-Saharan Africa: RAN refresh and total deployments
64.Forecasts: Developed Asia - Pacific
65.Developed Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload
66.Developed Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: spectrum availability
and RAN refresh
67.Developed Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: network sharing
68.Developed Asia - Pacific: connections, traffic per connection and
devices in use
69.Developed Asia - Pacific: network capacity upgrades
70.Developed Asia - Pacific: base station deployments
71.Developed Asia - Pacific: RAN refresh and total deployments
72.Forecasts: Emerging Asia - Pacific
73.Emerging Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: Wi-Fi offload
74.Emerging Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: spectrum availability
75.Emerging Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: RAN refresh
76.Emerging Asia - Pacific forecast assumptions: network sharing
77.Emerging Asia - Pacific: connections, traffic per connection and
devices in use
78.Emerging Asia - Pacific: network capacity upgrades
79.Emerging Asia - Pacific: base station deployments
80.Emerging Asia - Pacific: RAN refresh and total deployments
81.Market drivers and inhibitors
82.MNOs want to increase throughput and reduce latency
83.The main driver behind LTE adoption is access to spectrum
84.In addition to new spectrum, LTE offers access to wider bandwidths
85.LTE enables improved spectrum utilisation, but not spectrum efficiency
91.Easier Web access as a driver for LTE: all-IP and reduced latency
92.LTE offers a roadmap for the continuing development of access network
technology [1]
93.LTE offers a roadmap for the continuing development of access network
technology [2]
94.LTE is not the only technology to offer a roadmap for the continuing
development of access network technology
95.Voice and the all-IP LTE network: a driver or an inhibitor?
96.Business environment
97.The business environment for LTE
98.Migrating technologies: CDMA and WiMAX
99.Complementary and competing technologies: HSPA
100.Complementary and competing technologies: Wi-Fi
101.Regulatory changes
102.Methodology
103.Forecast methodology: a four-step process
104.Step 1: determining the number of subscribers, or connections, in a
region
105.Step 2: determining the number of subscribers that a typical base
station supports in a region [1]
106.Step 2: determining the number of subscribers that a typical base
station supports in a region [2]
107.Step 2: determining the number of subscribers that a typical base
station supports in a region [3]
108.Step 3: determining the network loading on the region's GSM, UMTS and
LTE networks from the multi-mode devices
109.Step 4: estimating the number of base stations that need to be deployed
110.About the author and Analysys Mason
111.About the author
112.About Analysys Mason
113.Research from Analysys Mason
114.Consulting from Analysys Mason
List of Figures
Figure 1: Cumulative new base station deployments by technology,
worldwide, 2012 - 2017
Figure 2: Base station refresh deployments by technology, worldwide, 2012
- 2017
Figure 3: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, and number of
sites, worldwide, 2012 - 2017
Figure 4: CDMA and 3GPP subscribers, worldwide, 2012 - 2017
Figure 5: Regional breakdown used in this report
Figure 6: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, North America,
2012 - 2017
Figure 7: Mobile devices in use by type, North America, 2012 - 2017
Figure 8: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for North
America
Figure 9: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, North
America, 2012 - 2017
Figure 10: Base station refresh deployments by technology, North America,
2012 - 2017
Figure 11: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, North
America, 2012 - 2017
Figure 12: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Caribbean and
Latin America, 2012 - 2017
Figure 13: Mobile devices in use by type, Caribbean and Latin America,
2012 - 2017
Figure 14: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for
Caribbean and Latin America
Figure 15: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Caribbean
and Latin America, 2012 - 2017
Figure 16: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Caribbean and
Latin America, 2012 - 2017
Figure 17: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Caribbean and
Latin America, 2012 - 2017
Figure 18: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Western Europe,
2012 - 2017
Figure 19: Mobile devices in use by type, Western Europe, 2012 - 2017
Figure 20: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for
Western Europe
Figure 21: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Western
Europe, 2012 - 2017
Figure 22: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Western Europe,
2012 - 2017
Figure 23: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Western
Europe, 2012 - 2017
Figure 24: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Central and
Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
Figure 25: Mobile devices in use by type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2012
- 2017
Figure 26: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for
Central and Eastern Europe
Figure 27: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Central and
Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
Figure 28: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Central and
Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
Figure 29: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Central and
Eastern Europe, 2012 - 2017
Figure 30: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, the Middle East
and North Africa, 2012 - 2017
Figure 31: Mobile devices in use by type, the Middle East and North
Africa, 2012 - 2017
Figure 32: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for the
Middle East and North Africa
Figure 33: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, the Middle
East and North Africa, 2012 - 2017
Figure 34: Base station refresh deployments by technology, the Middle East
and North Africa, 2012 - 2017
Figure 35: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, the Middle
East and North Africa, 2012 - 2017
Figure 36: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan
Africa, 2012 - 2017
Figure 37: Mobile devices in use by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2012 - 2017
Figure 38: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for
Sub-Saharan Africa
Figure 39: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Sub-Saharan
Africa, 2012 - 2017
Figure 40: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Sub-Saharan
Africa, 2012 - 2017
Figure 41: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Sub-Saharan
Africa, 2012 - 2017
Figure 42: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Developed Asia -
Pacific, 2012 - 2017
Figure 43: Mobile devices in use by type, Developed Asia - Pacific, 2012 -
2017
Figure 44: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for
Developed Asia - Pacific
Figure 45: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Developed
Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
Figure 46: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Developed Asia
- Pacific, 2012 - 2017
Figure 47: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Developed
Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
Figure 48: Mobile connections and traffic per connection, Emerging Asia -
Pacific, 2012 - 2017
Figure 49: Mobile devices in use by type, Emerging Asia - Pacific, 2012 -
2017
Figure 50: Network capacity upgrades and deployment assumptions for
Emerging Asia - Pacific
Figure 51: Cumulative base station deployments by technology, Emerging
Asia - Pacific, 2012 - 2017
Figure 52: Base station refresh deployments by technology, Emerging Asia -
Pacific, 2012 - 2017
Figure 53: Base station deployments per year and cumulative, Emerging Asia
- Pacific, 2012 - 2017
Figure 54: Frequency bands where LTE spectrum is available, selected
regions and countries, April 2012
Figure 55: LTE, LTE-Advanced, and IMT-Advanced performance targets for
downlink (DL) and uplink (UL)
Figure 56: Examples of WiMAX operators that are planning to migrate to LTE
Figure 57: Methodology for determining 3GPP subscribers per region
Figure 58: Methodology for determining 3GPP cell capacity
Figure 59: Spectral efficiency assumptions used in the forecast
Figure 60: Percentage spread of a typical capacity intervention across a
given region over the forecast period
Figure 61: Methodology for determining 3GPP distribution of cell load per
3GPP air interface
Figure 62: Methodology for determining the number of base stations that
need to be deployed
LTE infrastructure: worldwide demand drivers and base station forecast 2012-2017 published by Analysys Mason in May 17, 2012. This report price starts from US $ 7999.
