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NEMs' Network Management Systems: Worldwide Forecast 2013-2017

Abstract

CEM solutions are unlocking the potential of network management system data, but new fixed and mobile technology roll-outs continue to be the main growth driver.

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The worldwide network management systems (NMS) market is forecast to grow from USD4.5 billion in revenue in 2012 to USD5.9 billion in 2017, at a 5.8% CAGR. The NMS market is linked to equipment sales, and we expect LTE, small-cell and FTTx roll-outs to increase during the forecast period, leading to heterogeneous network (HetNet) environments.


This Report provides:

  • a detailed worldwide forecast for spending on NMS, split into:
    • four telecoms services (mobile, PSTN, business and residential broadband)
    • four geographical regions (see below).
  • a summary of the key trends and factors impacting the NMS market between 2012 and 2017
  • an examination of the key market drivers and inhibitors for the NMS market during the next 5 years
  • recommendations for communications service providers (CSPs) and network equipment manufacturers (NEMs)
  • insight into the impact of emerging technologies and opportunities - such as LTE, SON, NFV, SDN, CEM, M2M and new digital economy services - on the NMS market
  • an examination of end-user behaviour as it relates to this market.

Geographical coverage

Forecasts are split into the following four regions:

  • Asia-Pacific (APAC)
  • Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • North America (NA).

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary
  • 6.Worldwide NMS forecast, 2013-2017: new technologies will inject growth into, as well as limit growth in, this very mature OSS market
  • 7.Macro trends in 2012: Greenfield deployments are underway in MEA, but most ICT spend remained in China, Japan, Western Europe and the USA
  • 8.Fixed and mobile broadband technologies and services will drive market growth in mobile, business services and residential broadband NMS
  • 9.Growth will pick up in EMEA because of investments in LTE infrastructure, small-cell deployments and FTTx by CSPs in Western Europe
  • 10.Recommendations
  • 11.Recommendations for CSPs
  • 12.Recommendations for NEMs
  • 13.Forecast
  • 14.HetNets (LTE and small-cell deployments) will be the main driver for continued growth in the mobile NMS market
  • 15.Growth will return to EMEA as more CSPs in Western Europe launch LTE, while investment in developed APAC will decline
  • 16.Business services NMS growth will be slow until 2015, as CSPs make use of their abundant existing capacity
  • 17.APAC will register a short-term decline in business services spend while CSPs consume their surplus capacity
  • 18.Video, new digital services and HetNets will be the key market drivers for residential broadband NMS, while NBN investments decelerate
  • 19.Optical NGA investments continue to drive the overall growth in residential broadband NMS in emerging and mature markets
  • 20.PSTN NMS maintenance spend is plateauing because CSPs are doing most of the maintenance in-house to reduce spending even further
  • 21.LATAM will continue to have the slowest decline in PSTN NMS spending
  • 22.Market drivers and inhibitors
  • 23.Market drivers and inhibitors
  • 24.NMS market drivers [1]
  • 25.NMS market drivers [2]
  • 26.NMS market drivers [3]
  • 27.NMS market inhibitors [1]
  • 28.NMS market inhibitors [2]
  • 29.Business environment
  • 30.The business environment in 2012
  • 31.The business environment by region in 2012
  • 32.Fixed service retail revenue is declining as mobile gains ground, and data services will generate half of total telecoms retail revenue by 2017
  • 33.By 2017, there will be 8.4 billion active mobile connections worldwide, equivalent to 113% population penetration, compared with 86% in 2012
  • 34.Mobile traffic is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 40.8% worldwide during 2012-2017
  • 35.FTTx investments will be flat in developed APAC until 2014, and will decline in NA from 2015
  • 36.Smartphone users' churn is more-influenced by network performance than handset availability
  • 37.The 'support' process focuses on call centres and operations1
  • 38.Market definition
  • 39.Telecoms software market segmentation
  • 40.Infrastructure solution categories
  • 41.NMS overview
  • 42.NMS segment, sub-segment and revenue type definitions
  • 43.Definition of geographical regions
  • 44.Key business drivers and market characteristics and how they map to different operational and software strategies
  • 45.Our comprehensive forecast model is supported by a sound knowledge of markets
  • 46.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 47.About the authors
  • 48.About Analysys Mason
  • 49.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 50.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: NMS revenue, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 2: Top ICT spenders and growth, 2012
  • Figure 3: Highest ICT spending growth, 2003-2012
  • Figure 4: NMS revenue by telecoms service, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 5: NMS revenue by region, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 6: Mobile NMS revenue, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 7: Mobile NMS revenue by region, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 8: Business services NMS revenue, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 9: Business services NMS revenue by region, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 10: Residential broadband NMS revenue, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 11: Residential broadband NMS revenue by region, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 12: PSTN NMS revenue, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 13: PSTN NMS revenue by region, worldwide, 2012-2017
  • Figure 14a-c: Network management systems market drivers
  • Figure 15a-b: Network management systems market inhibitors
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service, worldwide, 2008-2017
  • Figure 17: Active mobile SIMs by region and worldwide mobile penetration, 2008-2017
  • Figure 18: Mobile data traffic, developed and emerging markets, 2011-2017
  • Figure 19: Mobile data traffic growth multiples, by region, 2012-2017
  • Figure 20: FTTx capex by region, developed markets, to 2018
  • Figure 21: FTTx capex by region, developed markets, 2010-2018
  • Figure 22: Key factors other than price that drive respondents to want to change mobile network provider in the next 6 months, by device type
  • Figure 23: Call centre and operational deployment scenario
  • Figure 24: Telecoms software market segments
  • Figure 25: Infrastructure solution categories
  • Figure 26: Interfaces supported by NMS
  • Figure 27: Definitions of NMS and its sub-segments
  • Figure 28: NMS revenue type definitions
  • Figure 29: Regional breakdown used in this report
  • Figure 30: Mapping of key business drivers and market characteristics according to business environment, and operational and software strategies
  • Figure 31: Key factors influencing forecast assumptions
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