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Smartphone Markets: Worldwide Trends, Forecasts and Strategies 2014-2018

  • Published:
  • PPT and PDF (52 slides); Excel
  • Analysys Mason

Vendors will need to ramp up their ecosystems and operators will have to bundle content or push handset leasing to improve customer loyalty.

The smartphone market is about to enter a new phase as it reaches saturation in developed countries, forcing vendors and operators to change their strategies. We anticipate device ecosystems and corresponding vendor strategies will have a significant impact on operators' business in the next few years. This report aims to provide guidance and recommendations accordingly.


This report and accompanying data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of the installed base and sales demand for smartphones, including the following forecasts:
    • smartphone connections by region and by country
    • smartphone connections by operating system (OS) for France, Germany, Spain, the UK and the USA
    • unit sales by region and by country
    • worldwide unit sales by OS and by handset manufacturer
  • profiles of regional smartphone markets
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and inhibitors for the adoption of smartphones, and the strategies that players are adopting to expand smartphone adoption
  • analysis of data from our Connected Consumer Survey regarding customers' propensity to buy a smartphone
  • key implications and recommendations for mobile operators and vendors
  • a comparative analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) for Android, iOS and Windows Phone
  • SWOT analysis on Apple, HTC, Huawei, Lenovo, LG Electronics, Nokia, Samsung and Sony Mobile.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

The report includes forecasts and analysis for the following regions:

  • North America (NA)
  • Western Europe (WE)
  • Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP)
  • Latin America (LATAM)
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
  • Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

Forecasts and analysis are also provided for the following countries:

  • France
  • Germany
  • Spain
  • UK
  • USA

COMPANY COVERAGE

This report includes information on the following companies.

  • Apple
  • BlackBerry
  • Google
  • HTC
  • Huawei
  • Lenovo
  • LG Electronics
  • Microsoft
  • Motorola
  • Nokia
  • Samsung
  • Sony Mobile
  • TCL
  • Xiaomi
  • ZTE

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ronan de Renesse (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Mobile Devices and Digital Economy research programmes. His primary areas of specialisation include smartphone and tablet adoption, rich media applications and services on mobile, mobile content and data monetisation, and over-the-top (OTT) company strategies.

Ronan has been analysing the telecoms and media industry since 2003. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Ronan was a Senior Analyst and the Head of Mobile at IHS Screen Digest, where he had overall responsibility for the Mobile Media Intelligence service and all related activities. For the past 5 years, Ronan has led the conception and development of various mobile media and technology forecasts, including those for mobile applications, mobile broadband and smartphones. Ronan has also written thought-leadership reports on Facebook and Google's mobile strategies, and participated in the production of Analysys Mason's key primary research projects such as the Connected Consumer, Tablet survey and Consumer smartphone usage report series.

Before becoming an industry analyst, Ronan was an academic researcher at the Centre for Telecommunications Research at King's College London. He had numerous articles published in international technology journals and also gave various presentations at high-profile conferences. Ronan holds a PhD in Telecommunications from King's College London. He has also participated on the GSMA Global Mobile Awards judging panel.

Table of Contents

  • 7. Executive summary
  • 8. Executive summary: Improving customer loyalty via stronger device ecosystems will help vendors sustain their market share
  • 9. Key implications
  • 10. Key implications
  • 11. Forecasts and analysis: worldwide
  • 12. Smartphones' share of handset connections will not exceed 50% until 2018
  • 13. Almost 40% of non-smartphone users in developed markets are not really interested in smartphones
  • 14. 18% of mobile respondents will not convert to smartphones unless their phone breaks
  • 15. 2014 will be a pivotal year for vendors as the high-end smartphone market reaches saturation in developed countries
  • 16. OS worldwide market shares: Android will maintain its comfortable lead, with a 72% volume market share in 2018
  • 17. Analysis: Apple and iOS
  • 18. Analysis: Google and Android
  • 19. Analysis: Windows Phone
  • 20. Vendors' worldwide market shares: Samsung's market share of unit sales will decline from 32% in 2013 to 27% in 2018
  • 21. Vendor analysis: HTC
  • 22. Vendor analysis: Huawei
  • 23. Vendor analysis: Lenovo
  • 24. Vendor analysis: LG Electronics
  • 25. Vendor analysis: Nokia
  • 26. Vendor analysis: Samsung
  • 27. Vendor analysis: Sony Mobile
  • 28. Forecasts and analysis: regional
  • 29. Worldwide view: Latin America's contribution to the smartphone market will increase the most during the forecast period
  • 30. North America: Operators have been particularly successful at converting prepaid and other low-end customers to smartphones
  • 31. Western Europe: Making smartphones more affordable via financing plans and refurbished handsets will help maximise smartphone penetration
  • 32. Central and Eastern Europe: The region will have almost as many smartphone connections and sales as Western Europe by the end of 2018
  • 33. Developed Asia-Pacific: 96% of handset sales will be smartphones in 2018
  • 34. Emerging Asia-Pacific: 47% of connections will be smartphones by 2018, and the market will continue to grow steadily beyond the forecast period
  • 35. Latin America: The region is set to overtake North America in yearly smartphone unit sales by the end of 2015
  • 36. The Middle East and Africa: Strong demand for OTT communication apps is driving smartphone take-up
  • 37. Sub-Saharan Africa: The average selling price for smartphones will remain high in comparison with income levels and ARPU
  • 38. Forecasts and analysis: country-level
  • 39. France: Android's market share will decline by 8 percentage points during the forecast period because of a high-end-focused market
  • 40. Germany: Low ARPU and a relatively high share of prepaid connections will continue to drive low-end Android smartphone adoption
  • 41. Spain: Android smartphones will account for three out of four smartphone connections in 2018
  • 42. UK: Windows Phone will gain users from BlackBerry's user base
  • 43. USA: This is the only market we tracked in which iOS's market share will continue to grow during the forecast period
  • 44. Market definition
  • 45. Definition of geographical regions [1]
  • 46. Definition of geographical regions [2]
  • 47. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 48. About the author
  • 49. About Analysys Mason
  • 50. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 51. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Smartphone unit sales by device manufacturer, worldwide, 2011-2018
  • Figure 3: Mobile handset connections by type, and smartphones' share of connections, worldwide, 2011-2018
  • Figure 4: Propensity to buy a smartphone, 2011 and 2012
  • Figure 5: Primary reasons for getting a new handset, by type of device currently owned
  • Figure 6: Mobile handset unit sales by type, and smartphones' share of unit sales, worldwide, 2011-2018
  • Figure 7: Smartphone unit sales by operating system, worldwide, 2011-2018
  • Figure 8: Smartphone unit sales by device manufacturer, worldwide, 2011-2018
  • Figure 9: Smartphone connections by region, 2011-2018
  • Figure 10: Smartphone unit sales by region, 2011-2018
  • Figure 11: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, North America, 2011-2018
  • Figure 12: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, North America, 2011-2018
  • Figure 13: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Western Europe, 2011-2018
  • Figure 14: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Western Europe, 2011-2018
  • Figure 15: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2018
  • Figure 16: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Central and Eastern Europe, 2011-2018
  • Figure 17: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
  • Figure 18: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
  • Figure 19: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
  • Figure 20: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Emerging Asia-Pacific, 2011-2018
  • Figure 21: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Latin America, 2011-2018
  • Figure 22: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Latin America, 2011-2018
  • Figure 23: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Middle-East and North Africa, 2011-2018
  • Figure 24: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Middle-East and North Africa, 2011-2018
  • Figure 25: Smartphone connections, share of total connections and year-on-year growth, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2018
  • Figure 26: Smartphone unit sales, year-on-year growth and as a share of total handset sales, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2011-2018
  • Figure 27: Smartphone connections by operating system, and smartphones' share of total mobile handset connections, France, 2011-2018
  • Figure 28: Smartphone connections by operating system, and smartphones' share of total mobile handset connections, Germany, 2011-2018
  • Figure 29: Smartphone connections by operating system, and smartphones' share of total mobile handset connections, Spain, 2011-2018
  • Figure 30: Smartphone connections by operating system, and smartphones' share of total mobile handset connections, UK, 2011-2018
  • Figure 31: Smartphone connections by operating system, and smartphones' share of total mobile handset connections, USA, 2011-2018
  • Figure 32: Regional breakdown used in this report
  • Figure 33: Regional breakdown used in this report
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