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The Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2013-2018

  • Published:
  • PPT and PDF (40 slides); Excel
  • Analysys Mason

Telecoms retail revenue will grow at a 1.1% CAGR in developed Asia-Pacific during 2013-2018 - mobile handset data services and mobile broadband offer the strongest opportunities for growth, and will help offset declining messaging and voice revenue.

We have increased our CAGR forecast for telecoms retail revenue in the developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) region because: handset data revenue is replacing mobile voice revenue more quickly than we had expected, and mobile VoIP and instant messaging are putting further pressure on mobile voice minutes and prices; prices in the fixed voice market are expected to hold up better than previously expected; and we have added M2M and IPTV revenue to our forecasts, both of which will grow to 2018.

This report provides:

  • an analysis of the latest developments in the telecoms market and assesses their impact on connections and revenue in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, as well as DVAP as a whole
  • an explanation of how and why our forecasts have changed since the previous edition of this report was published in March 2013.
  • detailed historical data and forecasts from 2008 to 2018.

COVERAGE

About the authors

Tom Mowat (Principal Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Tom recently rejoined Analysys Mason from PwC, where he was a Manager in the TMT Consulting team. He has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile broadband services, strategy and forecasting, regulatory issues, cost-modelling and the particular issues affecting telecoms markets in developing regions. His previous role at Analysys Mason was within the Custom Research team, developing project-based analysis for key industry clients. Tom's experience includes leading numerous projects for telecoms service providers, vendors, and regulatory and industry bodies, as an analyst and consultant. Tom has degrees in mathematical and particle physics from the University of Nottingham and the University of Durham.

Satvik Singhania (Research Analyst) joined Analysys Mason in 2012 as a Research Analyst in the Singapore office and works on our Asia-Pacific research programme. He has taken part in and led a number of key research projects as well as been involved in examining and forecasting the overall size of the telecoms market in developed and developing Asia-Pacific and producing market reports for various Asian countries. Before joining Analysys Mason, Satvik was a strategy and risk management consultant at Dragonfly, where he oversaw a number of projects in alternative energy investments for an oil major. Satvik has a degree in Economics and Finance from the Singapore Management University.

Table of Contents

  • 7. Executive summary
  • 8. Growth in handset data and broadband services will drive the telecoms market in the developed Asia-Pacific region during 2012-2018
  • 9. We have revised our retail revenue forecast for DVAP from decreasing to increasing, driven by growth in handset data and fixed revenue
  • 10. Mobile: significant changes since our previous developed Asia-Pacific forecast (more details in the individual country slides)
  • 11. Fixed: significant changes since our previous developed Asia-Pacific forecast (more details in the individual country slides)
  • 12. Regional forecasts
  • 13. Mobile networks will account for 73% of voice connections and 37% of broadband connections in DVAP by 2018
  • 14. Smartphones will account for 65% of active broadband connections and 76% of handsets by 2018; 18% of handsets will be prepaid connections
  • 15. Demand for fixed broadband will not be enough to offset declining fixed voice revenue during the forecast period
  • 16. Japan and South Korea are the two largest markets for M2M and IPTV in DVAP
  • 17. We expect that operators in DVAP will be able to maintain their price points leading to modest growth in overall revenue
  • 18. DVAP had more than 28 million LTE connections at the end of 2012 - 74% of mobile broadband connections and 68% of handsets will be 4G by 2018
  • 19. Individual country forecasts
  • 20. Australia: telecoms retail revenue will decline to AUD24.4 billion in 2018, as mobile and fixed voice revenue continue to decline
  • 21. Australia: 4G take-up has accelerated, and VoIP has attracted fewer consumers than expected
  • 22. Hong Kong: telecoms retail revenue will reach almost HKD60 billion in 2018, as data revenue growth offsets the decline in voice
  • 23. Hong Kong: 4G take-up continues to disappoint, while growth in fixed fibre broadband has exceeded expectations
  • 24. Japan: retail revenue will reach JPY11.4 trillion in 2018, because broadband and data revenue will offset declining voice revenue
  • 25. Japan: fixed broadband connections exceeded expectations, while fixed voice prices are proving resilient
  • 26. Singapore: telecoms retail revenue will remain at SGD5. 4 billion in 2018, but data revenue will account for a larger share
  • 27. Singapore: 2G is proving to be more resilient than expected, but handset data revenue has exceeded previous expectations
  • 28. Singapore: fixed voice minutes decreased in 2011 and 2012
  • 29. South Korea: telecoms retail revenue will decrease marginally to KRW32.2 trillion in 2018, as revenue from voice services declines
  • 30. South Korea: 4G continues to gain ground on 3G, with handset data revenue increasing accordingly in 2012
  • 31. South Korea: mobile broadband will add fewer subscribers than previously expected, and mobile voice traffic fell sharply
  • 32. Taiwan: telecoms retail revenue will decrease to TWD334 billion in 2018, as revenue from voice services decline sharply
  • 33. Taiwan: we forecast that 4G will launch sooner than expected, which may be linked to the stagnation of mobile broadband take-up in 2012
  • 34. Taiwan: the outlook for fixed-wireless broadband has changed completely as WiMAX operators look to LTE
  • 35. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 36. About the authors
  • 37. About Analysys Mason
  • 38. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 39. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 3: Growth rates of telecoms retail revenue by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue, new and previous forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2017
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rates, new and previous forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2012-2017
  • Figure 6: Details of how our forecast methodology for the mobile market has changed since the previous edition was published in March 2013, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 7: Details of how our forecast methodology for the fixed market has changed since the previous edition was published in March 2013, developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 8: Fixed and mobile voice connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 9: Broadband access connections by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 10: Broadband connections by type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 11: Smartphones as a percentage of mobile handsets, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 12: Mobile handset connections by type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 13: Fixed connections and penetration by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 14: Fixed telecoms retail revenue by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 15: IPTV penetration by country, developed Asia-Pacific 2009-2018
  • Figure 16: M2M connections by country, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 17: M2M connections by country (excluding Japan), developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2018
  • Figure 18: Fixed and mobile telecoms retail revenue, new and previous forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2017
  • Figure 19: Fixed and mobile connections by type, new and previous forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2017
  • Figure 20: 4G's share of mobile handset and mobile broadband connections, new and previous forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2017
  • Figure 21: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, Australia, 2009-2018
  • Figure 22: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Australia, 2009-2018
  • Figure 23: Connections by type, and growth rates, Australia, 2009-2018
  • Figure 24: Mobile active connections by technology generation, new and previous forecasts, Australia, 2009-2017
  • Figure 25: Fixed broadband connections by technology, Australia, 2009-2017
  • Figure 26: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, Hong Kong, 2009-2018
  • Figure 27: Telecoms retail revenue by service category, and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2009-2018
  • Figure 28: Connections by type, and growth rates, Hong Kong, 2009-2018
  • Figure 29: Mobile active connections by technology generation, new and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2009-2017
  • Figure 30: VoBB, DSL and FTTH/B connections, new and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2009-2017
  • Figure 31: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, Japan, 2009-2018
  • Figure 32: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Japan, 2009-2018
  • Figure 33: Connections by type, and growth rates, Japan, 2009-2018
  • Figure 34: Mobile broadband revenue and connections, new and previous forecasts, Japan, 2009-2017
  • Figure 35: Fixed service revenue, and fixed broadband and BFWA connections, new and previous forecasts, Japan, 2009-2017
  • Figure 36: Telecoms retail revenue by service category, Singapore, 2009-2018
  • Figure 37: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Singapore, 2009-2018
  • Figure 38: Connections by type, and growth rates, Singapore, 2009-2018
  • Figure 39: Mobile active connections by technology generation, new and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2009-2017
  • Figure 40: Mobile revenue by service, new and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2009-2017
  • Figure 41: Fixed voice outgoing minutes and minutes of use, new and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2008-2017
  • Figure 42: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, South Korea, 2009-2018
  • Figure 43: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, South Korea, 2009-2018
  • Figure 44: Connections by type, and growth rates, South Korea, 2009-2018
  • Figure 45: Mobile active connections by technology generation, new and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2009-2017
  • Figure 46: Mobile messaging and mobile handset data revenue, new and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2009-2017
  • Figure 47: Mobile broadband revenue and connections, new and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2009-2017
  • Figure 48: Mobile voice revenue and outgoing traffic, new and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2008-2017
  • Figure 49: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, Taiwan, 2009-2018
  • Figure 50: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and growth rates, Taiwan, 2009-2018
  • Figure 51: Connections by type, and growth rates, Taiwan, 2009-2018
  • Figure 52: Active mobile connections by technology generation, new and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2009-2017
  • Figure 53: Mobile broadband revenue and connections, new and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2009-2017
  • Figure 54: BFWA revenue and connections, new and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2009-2017
  • Figure 55: Mobile voice revenue and outgoing mobile voice traffic, new and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2009-2017
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