• Japanese
  • Korean
  • Chinese
Cover Image

Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2014-2019

Growth in mobile handset data revenue will offset the decline in voice and SMS, resulting in a small total retail revenue growth.

Data-related revenue (such as mobile handset data, mobile and fixed broadband) will be the key growth drivers of telecoms service revenue in the mature and saturating Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) market. LTE and fixed broadband adoption is expected to increase across the region while voice and messaging will continue to decline.


This report and accompanying data annex provide:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast of more than 100 mobile and fixed key performance indicators (KPIs) for the DVAP region, which was previously published in March 2014
  • revised forecasts based on the latest available data, which covers the period to June 2014
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts
  • a extension of the forecast period to 2019.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • Developed Asia-Pacific

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service3, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband1, M2M2
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service3, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Countries not modelled individually, but modelled as part of the region as a whole

Brunei, French Polynesia, Guam, Macau, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Northern Mariana Islands.

Voice traffic

Fixed and mobile

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

ARPU

Mobile

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice

                1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.
                2M2M connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
                3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Satvik Singhania (Research Analyst) joined Analysys Mason in 2012 as a Research Analyst in the Singapore office and works on our Asia-Pacific research programme. He has taken part in and led a number of key research projects as well as been involved in examining and forecasting the overall size of the telecoms market in developed and developing Asia-Pacific and producing market reports for various Asian countries. Before joining Analysys Mason, Satvik was a strategy and risk management consultant at Dragonfly, where he oversaw a number of projects in alternative energy investments for an oil major. Satvik has a degree in Economics and Finance from the Singapore Management University.

Nipun Jaiswal (Analyst) is an analyst in Analysys Mason's Singapore office. He specialises in the Asia-Pacific telecoms, media and related technologies markets. He is an expert in tracking, analysing and forecasting telecoms market data, and in providing corporate strategy, competitive analysis, market insights and market intelligence. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, Nipun was an industry analyst in Frost & Sullivan's ICT research and growth consulting team for Asia-Pacific, based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Nipun has a strong technical background, having worked extensively on mobile network management solutions in the OSS domain for a Tier 1 telecoms equipment vendor based in Europe and India. Nipun holds an MBA in global business from the S P Jain School of Global Management (Singapore and Dubai) and a degree in Computer Engineering from Bharati Vidyapeeth University (India).

Sherrie Huang (Research Programme Head, Asia-Pacific) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia-Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 15 key markets as well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends in the region. Sherrie has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile services and has covered the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecasting, end-user case studies, cost modelling and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia-Pacific countries in product marketing, project management, and research and consulting roles. Sherrie has a Master's degree in computer science from the University of Singapore and a Bachelor's degree in Electrical Engineering from Xiamen University, China. She speaks Cantonese, Hokkien, English and Mandarin.

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Data-related telecoms revenue will continue to dominate the revenue mix and drive telecoms service revenue up to USD237 billion in 2019
  • 7. Growth in mobile handset data and broadband revenue will offset voice and messaging decline, resulting in a small growth in retail revenue
  • 8. Smartphones and LTE will account for 95% and 80% of handsets and mobile connections (excluding M2M) respectively in DVAP in 2019
  • 9. Key regional changes since our previous forecast: Mobile broadband, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue are expected to show stronger growth
  • 10. Forecast revision: Service revenue is revised down through 2019 because of currency impacts, and a data restatement because of new data in Japan
  • 11. Individual country forecasts
  • 12. Australia: 4G take-up and fixed broadband exceed expectation, while growth in mobile connections stalls (but ARPU is up)
  • 13. Hong Kong: 4G penetration of mobile connections continues to grow strongly, while IPTV connections growth has increased
  • 14. Japan: IPTV take-up will be higher than previously expected, while mobile voice revenue will decline further
  • 15. Singapore: Mobile handsets declined in 1H 2014, so 4G grows more slowly than anticipated; fibre broadband ARPU declines
  • 16. South Korea: FMC bundled services are driving IPTV growth, while smartphone connections growth suffers because of imposed bans
  • 17. Taiwan: 4G was launched ahead of schedule and take-up has been exceptional, far exceeding our previous estimates
  • 18. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 19. About the authors
  • 20. About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Summary of report coverage
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2009-2019
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2019
  • Figure 4: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013 and 2019
  • Figure 5: Summary of major changes compared with our March 2014 forecast for Developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 7: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
  • Figure 8: Connections by type, and growth rates, Developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2018
  • Figure 9: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Australia, 2009-2019
  • Figure 10: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Australia
  • Figure 11: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2009-2019
  • Figure 12: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Hong Kong
  • Figure 13: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Japan, 2009-2019
  • Figure 14: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Japan
  • Figure 15: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2009-2019
  • Figure 16: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Singapore
  • Figure 17: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2009-2019
  • Figure 18: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, South Korea
  • Figure 19: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2009-2019
  • Figure 20: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Taiwan
Show More
Pricing