Forecasting the Commercial Impact of Wireless VoIP in the USA and Western Europe

Forecasting the Commercial Impact of Wireless VoIP in the USA and Western Europe published by Analysys Mason in August, 2006. This report price starts from US $ 1342.

Introduction

A report identifying the triggers for mass market wireless VoIP and quantifying its impact on the fixed and mobile voice markets.

This report answers your key questions:

• What are the barriers to the adoption of wireless VoIP services? How and when will these barriers be overcome, and what will drive adoption?
• What contribution will wireless VoIP make to the total (fixed and mobile) voice market, in terms of traffic volume and revenues?
• What will be the relative contributions of VoIP over 3G, WLAN and BWA?
• How will wireless VoIP usage and revenues compare to fixed voice services?
• How will the evolution of 3G networks affect the migration from circuitswitched voice services to VoIP?
• How will wireless VoIP affect the evolution of mobile voice pricing?
• What actions should operators, service providers, vendors and VoIP software providers take to seize the opportunities that wireless VoIP presents and overcome the risks?

Overview

Retail fixed-line VoIP services are already being adopted by both business and residential customers, and represent a major long-term threat to incumbent fixedtelephony revenues. There is now growing interest in delivering VoIP services over a range of wireless technologies (including 3G, WLAN and WiMAX).

Wireless VoIP services could bring significant opportunities and risks for network operators, service providers and equipment vendors. However, there is still substantial uncertainty over the extent to which wireless VoIP will be adopted and the impact it will have on the usage and revenue of voice services in general.

Currently, wireless VoIP is being driven predominantly by cellular and BWA equipment vendors, keen to sell new VoIPenabled capabilities. However, widespread deployment of wireless VoIP services will demand that mobile operators in particular see a convincing case for wireless VoIP services.

This report identifies the key turning points in the growth of wireless VoIP and quantifies the impact of cellular, WLAN and BWA VoIP on the overall voice market over the next ten years. It identifies the actions needed by network operators, services providers and equipment vendors to maximise the opportunities and minimise the threats.

0. Summary

1. Players in the mobile industry must assess the impact of wireless VoIP in the context of overall strategy

2. Mobile network operators and end users will be critical players in determining the success of wireless VoIP

• 2.1 Wireless VoIP brings potential opportunities and threats for many players in the telecoms industry
• 2.2 Industry players should not assume that VoIP services will follow the same evolutionary path on fixed and mobile networks
• 2.3 Equipment vendors, keen to sell infrastructure, handsets and services, are the main current proponents of wireless VoIP
• 2.4 Mobile network operators are crucial to the future of wireless VoIP but must be persuaded to replace their circuit-switched voice infrastructure
• 2.5 Wireless VoIP services will only succeed if they are an attractive alternative to existing voice services for end users
• 2.6 Wireless industry players need to quantify the impact of wireless VoIP on the overall voice market in order to focus on the greatest revenue opportunities

3. Improvements to cellular radio technology will create the long-term business case for mass-market wireless VoIP services

• 3.1 Early deployment of CDMA2000 1X EV-DO Revision A in the USA will give cellular VoIP a head start over Western Europe
• 3.2 Prior to the commercial deployment of 3G LTE, there will be no business case for W-CDMA operators to migrate from circuit-switched voice
• 3.3 The lower cost of delivery, enhanced network capacity and increased service benefits of 3G LTE will create the business case for W-CDMA operators to embrace VoIP
• 3.4 Migration to cellular VoIP wi ll require investment in IP core network equipment such as softswitches in order to provide sufficient capacity and quality of service
• 3.5 The production of cellular VoIP handsets will benefit from greater economies of scale than dual-mode, cellular/WLAN handsets
• 3.6 Mobile operators can take action to control arbitrage opportunities in both the short and long term
• 3.7 When cellular VoIP services mature, mobile operators must position them as premium voice services in order to maintain ARPU
• 3.8 Cellular VoIP services will be adopted earlier in the USA than in Western Europe as CDMA2000 operators introduce EV-DO Rev A
• 3.9 Cellular VoIP will begin to grow rapidly in Western Europe from 2011, following the introduction of 3G LTE
• 3.10 By 2015 cellular VoIP will carry more traffic and generate more revenue than all fixed voice services in Western Europe
• 3.11 There will be significant differences among countries and operators in the extent to which they embrace cellular VoIP services

4. The dominance of cellular VoIP services will constrain wireless VoIP on alternative networks to niche opportunities

• 4.1 VoIP on alternative wireless technologies will struggle to compete with cellular voice services
• 4.2 Residential VoWLAN services will be held back by the complexity of the service, the limitations of handsets and the lack of price differentiation from cellular services
• 4.3 Public VoWLAN will be unable to compete with the ubiquity, simplicity and cost effectiveness of cellular services
• 4.4 Enterprise VoWLAN will be an opportunity for business solution providers, but WLAN costs will constrain deployment
• 4.5 The limited deployment of BWA networks will constrain the impact of BWA VoIP services in the USA and Western Europe

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• Figur e 0.1: Annual voice minutes carried by fixed and wireless networks in the USA, 2006-15
• Figur e 0.2: Annual voice minutes carried by fixed and wireless networks in Western Europe, 2006-15
• Table 2.1: Categories of cellular networks, WLAN and BWA technologies and examples of wireless VoIP solutions that use these technologies
• Table 2.2: Potential opportunities and threats created by wireless VoIP services on cellular networks, WLAN and BWA technologies
• Table 2.3: Evolution of capabilities from W-CDMA Release 99
• Table 2.4: Evolution of capabilities from CDMA2000 1X Revision 0
• Figur e 3.1: Average voice minutes per user per month in the USA for cellular services, 2006-15
• Figur e 3.2: Annual voice minutes carried by fixed and wireless services in the USA, 2006-15
• Figur e 3.3: Average voice revenues per user per month in the USA for cellular services, 2006-15
• Figur e 3.4: Annual revenues generated by fixed and wireless voice services in the USA, 2006-15
• Figur e 3.5: Average cellular voice minutes per user per month in Western Europe, 2006-15
• Figur e 3.6: Annual voice minutes carried by fixed and wireless services in Western Europe, 2006-15
• Figur e 3.7: Average retail revenues per outgoing call minute generated by fixed and cellular voice services in Western Europe, 2006-15
• Figur e 3.8: Average voice revenue per user per month in Western Europe for cellular services, 2006-15
• Figur e 3.9: Annual revenues generated by fixed and wireless voice services in Western Europe, 2006-15
• Figur e 3.10: Penetration of fixed broadband and cellular mobile services in the USA and Western Europe, 2006-15
• Figur e 4.1: Annual voice minutes carried by VoIP services on BWA, cellular and WLAN networks in Western Europe and the USA, 2006-15
• Figur e 4.2: Annual revenues generated by VoIP services on cellular, WLAN and BWA networks in Western Europe and the USA, 2006-15

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