2008 contracts analysis viewpoint published by Analysys Mason in March, 2009. This report price starts from US $ 1600.
Abstract
“Analysis of the contracts announced by eight of the largest network
equipment manufacturers during 2008 reveals some of the dynamics that are
shaping the CSP market.”Roz Roseboro, Senior Analyst.
Analysys Mason' s Global Telecoms Software group (formerly OSS Observer) has
gathered information on the announced communications service provider (CSP)
customer wins in 2008 for eight of the largest network equipment manufacturers
(NEMs). Most of the 318 announcements were for equipment (88%), while the rest
were for services and software (with some of the equipment deals also having a
services component). Although this sample does not represent all deal
activity, in aggregate, these contracts provide us with some indications of
where CSPs are investing. Of particular importance to independent software
vendor (ISVs) is what these contracts mean in terms of new opportunities.
Analysys Mason has found that of the 318 contracts, 57% offer an opportunity
for new software sales because they were contracts for new networks or
services, rather than for expansion of established networks where CSPs will
likely use their existing systems.
Combined with our market intelligence, this analysis enables us to draw the
following conclusions about the dynamics that are shaping the CSP market.
- The main opportunities for WiMAX are with challengers in mature markets
for fixed broadband and in emerging markets for fixed and mobile broadband.
- Ethernet will be a disruptive technology in the CSP market.
- CSPs in some markets will be running 2G and 3G networks concurrently for
many years.
- Lots of activity in emerging markets does not necessarily translate into
lots of revenue.
- Even though emerging markets show the highest growth rates, North America
still has the largest capex.
- There are no new PSTN contracts.
- Spending on residential broadband is disproportionate to the amount of
revenue that CSPs generate from those services.
- Incumbent suppliers will benefit from the emerging market activity coming
from the subsidiaries of Tier-1 CSPs in mature markets.
We expect to see continued growth in emerging markets, but anticipate that
spending in these markets will remain below that recorded in mature markets.
The biggest opportunities in emerging markets will be for mobile services
through a combination of WiMAX, GSM/CDMA and UMTS. Fixed broadband will
continue to be a mature markets phenomenon - and WiMAX will be relegated to
challengers.
Vendors that have established relationships with Western European Tier-1 CSPs
stand to benefit as the latter pursue expansion plans in emerging markets.
This may be a better channel into emerging markets given the cost of chasing
deals with Tier-3 and Tier-4 CSPs. Vendors will play a significant role in the
continued development of Ethernet as a carrier-grade technology. We believe
CSPs will demand better management tools for Ethernet to enable to them to
reduce their mobile backhaul costs and offer lower-priced business services.
