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Combined Semiconductor Timing Report & Analysis CY2013 - Q1 CY2014

Product and Technology Focus

This report has specific focus in Semiconductor Timing. We split the industry segment into two main parts; Xtal and Oscillators, and Semiconductor Clock & Timing.

The fundamental difference being in Semiconductor Clock and Timing, external resonators/Xtals are utilized along with Inline, Quad, and BGA type packaging, Vs. a Module approach in Oscillators where all components are embedded in a MCM typically packaged in SMD plastic or CSP. Semiconductor Clock and Timing also includes Die/Wafer sales into FCP and RF components and modules.

We include all technologies in play today to include; SAW, Quartz, MEMS, and Compensated CMOS. Combined these two defined segments account for the full spectrum of Semiconductor Timing solutions.


Semiconductor Timing - The challenge ahead...

2013 proved to be one of the most challenging years on record for Semiconductor Timing Overall. Marked by extreme price pressure, changing application needs and requirements, MnA in the supplier base at continued high levels, new technology roll outs, revised product mixes and portfolios, and a rapidly changing market with applications pushing both performance and cost/price, Semiconductor Timing is undergoing an evolution that perhaps many suppliers will be unable to keep pace with...

Last year we reported with the Headline; “Have we reached a crescendo in Semiconductor Timing?”, and the answer is an unequivocal yes. We believe we are at the peak in Semiconductor Timing right now, and that the revenues will fall until we deliver a new technology at the right point of inflection.

This is not Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD), but a realistic analysis of the numbers, trending, technologies, and supply chain, coupled with the demand for more things of the internet and the structures and networks to support all the connectivity. Revenues for Semiconductor Clock and Timing have fallen to a new low of less than $1B usd down to ~$870 Million USD as the industry continues to concatenate ( this number does not include RF, die sales, and some high end timing solutions- see our section on the numbers for the full detail and breakdowns).

This is not revolutionary, but an expected evolutionary process, as integration and embedding of the timing function where possible, especially in Consumer Electronics Timing has cost, size, and power as prime considerations. We also warned about cannibalizing our markets last year, and we are victims of our own technology, as embedding has proven to work and has enabled much in CE Timing integration value. This is also proving true in PC Timing as the associated chip set (North and South Bridges) saw integration of most key timing functions that were traditionally external and generated a WW TAM in excess of $250 M USD just 5 short years ago. In other markets the value added appreciation for precision, high precision, and ultra-precision class semiconductor timing solutions remains high and continues to provide the balance needed for our industry.

2013 provided new highs in volume for many timing suppliers, while others saw their position slip as the vendors fight for SOM (Share of Market). This is the trend as device $ASP's slide despite the increase in volumes. Low ball pricing is a defensive almost knee jerk reaction to perceived loss of business and/or opportunity while differentiation should be the guide. Indeed, 2013 was marked with shifting SOM and not fundamental growth...

2014 is proving to be every bit the challenge we forecasted and more. As we close this first Quarter of the calendar year, we still show inventory levels at 60-90 days, $ASP erosion that is proving to be costly, continued embedding of timing functions into ASIC/ASSP/SoC's, and an evolving supplier base and solution mix. Indeed, 2014 will be yet another pivotal year for us...

Table of Contents

  • Limited License Agreement
    • Disclaimer
      • Product and Technology Focus
      • Product Categories Covered in this report
  • CS &A Methodologies...
    • How do we do it?
  • Preface
    • Semiconductor Timing - The challenge ahead...
      • CE and Semi Timing - Fading fast
      • A rapidly changing Landscape
      • Communications Focused Semiconductor Timing Solutions...
      • Broadband Unlimited
    • More Spectrum Available?
  • The Radio Frequency Spectrum allocation
    • ITU
    • IEEE
    • EU, NATO, US ECM frequency designations
    • Waveguide frequency bands
    • Comparison of radio band designation standards[edit]
    • Spectrum By Application
      • Broadcasting
      • Air band
      • Marine band
      • Amateur radio frequencies
      • Citizens' band and personal radio services
      • Industrial, scientific, medical
      • Land mobile bands
      • Radio control
      • Radar
      • Demand for Storage continue to rise exponentially
  • More Pressure on the net
    • Relevant Factoids 2013-14
  • Timing; Definitions and Product Categories
  • Market Trending and Updates for CY2014
  • Consumer Electronics
    • What Do We Expect to See in 2014?
    • Apple's higher standard: How 51M iPhones is somehow disappointing
    • CE is Evolving into a tight and short list of Aps
    • Handsets
      • CE applications driving growth
      • Has CE Revenue in NAM peaked?
    • Video Game Consoles
      • Microsoft reports 3.9 million Xbox One shipments in 2013
      • Worldwide Video Game Console Shipments, First 6 Months of Sales
      • Worldwide Video Game Console Shipment Forecast, 2010-2017
  • Industry News and Updates
    • Foundry Business is up
    • Silicon Wafer Revenues Decline in 2013
    • Lenovo confirms deal to acquire IBM's low-end server unit
    • Nvidia to debut graphics cards with 2 GPUs
    • Avago buys LSI Logic -
    • Avago's FBAR/FMOS
    • FBAR and FMOS Technology from a MEMS Perspective
    • Set Top Boxes
  • Computing - Motherboard - Not dead yet!
    • Data Storage
    • Verizon and Tablets
  • Computing - Non Motherboard Timing Applications
    • Printers - still a synchronous system needing timing
      • Ink Jet - MFP - and Laser Printers
      • Semi Timing functions specific to the printer include;
  • Industrial Space Update
    • Military Radar System Spending Approaching $16 Billion in 2022
  • 2013-14 Communications and Semi Timing
    • Qualcomm's 5G
      • Coexistence or Conflict?
      • Proliferation of Very High speed networks
    • Small Cell Update (Femto / Pico Cells)
      • 2013 Small Cell End of Year Report Card
      • Forecast / Predictions
      • ThinkSmallCell Predictions for 2014
      • Quantenna teams up with TI for picocell Wi-Fi platform
      • New chipsets and devices lay groundwork for LTE-Advanced
      • Current LTE networks use one channel with 10MHz or 20MHz of spectrum.
    • ThinkSmallCell update
      • Mobile World Congress
      • A few new operator based Small Cell launches
      • A strong response from DAS vendors
      • Enterprise Small Cell vendors expand into LTE
      • China and Europe telecoms market promises most potential overall
      • Mobile Carriers make more use of Wi-Fi
  • VoIP - the biggest segment for commodity/precision Synthesizers
    • 32 KHz
    • Smart Watches
  • Server Update - JEDEC RDIMM's and more still on the table for Semi Timing
    • Overall Server Market Standings, by Vendor
    • CY2013 -14 Top Server Market Findings
    • Introducing ODM Direct Servers
    • x86 Industry Standard Server Market Dynamics
    • Modular Form Factor Results
    • IDC's Server Taxonomy
  • RF Timing
    • RF Semi Timing Product Mix includes;
    • Semi Clock and Timing and Oscillators in RF Modules
    • RF Timing Components and Modules use other timing solutions
    • Base Stations
    • OTT Devices to reaches 1.9 Billion in 2013
    • Disney and Dish - an OTT deal
    • The rest of the field
  • 100G, Growing fast and a good opportunity for Precision and Ultra-Precision Semi Timing
    • A 10Gb Wireless Standard? More spectrum needed
    • RF System and Module Suppliers
  • Data Converter Semiconductor Timing Support - a High Frequency opportunity
    • The JEDEC 204B Data Converter Timing Standard
    • IDT joins the supplier mix for JESD204B
    • Estimated TAM for JESD204 Timing;
  • 2014 Semi Timing Supplier Updates
  • Semiconductor Timing Supply Chain MnA 2013
    • Let's Talk about MEMS Based Semi Timing
      • Estimated MEMS Based Timing Volumes and $$Revenues
    • Compensated CMOS Based Semi Timing Providers;
    • IDT 2014
      • IDT Expands Its Timing Portfolio with Low-noise Timing Chipsets for Wireless Base Station Radio Cards
      • Is IDT winning with pMEMS?
      • Example of an IDT pMEMS Oscillator
    • Texas Instruments
      • Texas Instruments Semiconductor Timing Portfolio for 2014
    • On Semiconductor
    • Pericom Corporation / Saronix
      • Pericom's new HiFlex™ Clock Generators
    • High end Semiconductor Timing Supplier List
  • Epson
    • Epson's QMEMS™
    • QMEMS in Tuning Forks
    • QMEMS as a High Frequency Fundamental
    • Advantage of high frequency oscillation at the fundamental frequency
  • Semiconductor Clock and Timing - The Numbers
  • Supplier Rankings by $Revenues and Capabilities for the top tier
    • Semi Clock and Timing TAM
    • Consumer Segment Semi Clock and Timing
    • Industrial Segment for Semi Clock and Timing
    • RF Components and Solutions in Semi Clock and Timing
    • Forecast for Semi Clock and Timing
  • CY2013-14 Xtal and Oscillator Updates
    • Xtal and Oscillator WW TAM
    • Xtal and Oscillator Supplier Rankings by $Revenue
    • Supplier Capabilities and Technologies in Play today
    • XO's/MO's
    • TCXO's
    • VCXO / VCSO's
    • OCXO's / OCSO's
      • Forecast
      • Compensated CMOS - have the limits been reached?
      • Oscillators in RF and High end Timing Solutions
  • Summary
  • Appendix 1
    • Measuring Noise in-System
    • Jitter and Phase Noise Analysis - Two separate measurements;
  • Appendix 2
    • Rohde and Schwarz DSO Jitter Analysis
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