CSP Parabolic Trough Report: Cost, Performance and Key Trends (2013)

Introduction

Abstract

Plan, measure and optimize your involvement and profitability in Parabolic Trough CSP by utilizing the most up-to-date, comprehensive and hard to access cost and performance data

The CSP Parabolic Trough Report provides you with the facts, data and analysis you need to stay ahead of the curve and secure profitability in this nascent CSP technology.

• Critical Cost Data: Receive the most up-to-date industry validated cost data across the lifespan of a Parabolic Trough CSP plant from CAPEX to OPEX, including a comprehensive component cost breakdown, solar field costs and material replacement costs, presented also as easy to reference appendices (CAPEX and OPEX) for your convenience (in € and $).
• Realistic Levelized Energy Cost (LCOE) Models: Determine the LCOE of Parabolic Trough CSP based upon the latest, industry validated data. Identify the longitudinal trend with retrospective comparisons and LCOE forecasts, and understand the LCOE dependency relationship to loan conditions, loan interest rates and tariff rates.
• Performance Optimization and Cost Reduction: Utilise our cost benefit analysis of key technology choices, including dry vs. wet cooling and thermal storage vs. no storage, to determine how such features will impact upon the LCOE, lifetime cost and performance of Parabolic Trough CSP.
• Key Trends and Research Developments: Gain an insight into the latest global research activities and understand how such developments will impact upon the cost reduction and performance optimization of Parabolic Trough CSP, including manufacturing, installation and maintenance initiatives, heat transfer fluid and storage mediums and configurations, and cooling options.
• Market Share of Parabolic Trough CSP: Strategize your investment in and gauge your profit from Parabolic Trough - the most bankable and widely deployed CSP technology - by understanding the long-term market share, growth and viability of this technology, including key comparisons with other CSP technologies and an overview of the collective projected growth of the CSP industry over the coming decade.
• Worldwide List of All Parabolic Trough Plants: A complete and up-to-date global list of Parabolic Trough plants at all stages (‘operating', ‘under construction', ‘under development' and ‘announced'), including critical data on developer, location, MW capacity and storage capacity. Use this data to track the evolving geography of Parabolic Trough, to determine how key technology breakthroughs are being implemented, and identify where business opportunities are ‘up for grabs' for suppliers, service providers and component providers.

At this stage 40+ CSP Today conducted interviews with industry executives (including developers, component manufacturers, service providers, financial bodies, EPC's and research labs) to ensure that the focus, scope and information in the report is highly relevant to industry executives. Additionally, a broad industry survey is sent to our database, which has more than 20,000 active contacts, to validate the results.

CSP Today works with expert authors who carry out a thorough review of CSP related literature. Then CSP Today carries out in-depth interviews with 20+ highly targeted industry executives, scientists and government officials, these interviews give the reader an insider's view into the CSP industry. The cost data presented in this report has been collected from and validated by executives across the industry to ensure it represents the most up-to-date and accurate cost of Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower. The collated data was then run through the Solar Advisory Model (SAM) developed by NREL, which is held as the industry's gold standard for testing. The results of the modeling have been analyzed to create the report.

All CSP Today reports are peer-reviewed by at least two independent experts and the resulting feedback is incorporated in the report. Once feedback is incorporated, the report is edited and designed.

Customers have the right to ask questions about unclear points in the report. The feedback resulting from this interaction is incorporated into future CSP Today reports.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. Parabolic Trough Industry Overview

• 1.1. Technology
• 1.2. Market Status
• 1.3. Industry Challenges and Opportunities
• 1.4. Technical Pros & Cons of Parabolic Troughs

2. Parabolic Trough Technology

• 2.1. Key Parameters
• 2.2. Key components
  • 2.2.1. Solar Collector Assembly
  • 2.2.2. Heat Transfer Fluid (HTF)
  • 2.2.3. Thermal Energy Storage (TES)

3. Cost and Performance Modeling

• 3.1. Methodology
  • 3.1.1. Plant Configuration
  • 3.1.2. CAPEX and OPEX 47
  • 3.1.3. Energy Yield Simulation
  • 3.1.4. LCOE Calculation
  • 3.1.5. Techno-Economical Optimal Plant Configuration
• 3.2. Financing Parameters
• 3.3. Weather Data
• 3.4. Reference Plant
  • 3.4.1. Technical Parameters
  • 3.4.2. Weather Data
  • 3.4.3. CAPEX
  • 3.4.4. OPEX
  • 3.4.5. Lifecycle Cost
  • 3.4.6. Energy Yield Results
  • 3.4.7. Economic Results
• 3.5. Sensitivity Analysis
  • 3.5.1. Power Plant Size Impact
  • 3.5.2. TES Capacity Impact
  • 3.5.3. Solar Resource Impact
  • 3.5.4. Technical Parameters Impact
  • 3.5.5. CAPEX Structure Impact
  • 3.5.6. Component Cost Impact
  • 3.5.7. Financing Assumptions Impact

4. Trends and Developments

• 4.1. Power Block
• 4.2. Collector Design
  • 4.2.1. Manufacturing
  • 4.2.2. Installation
  • 4.2.3. Maintenance
• 4.3. Heat Transfer Fluids
  • 4.3.1. Compressed Gas
  • 4.3.2. Direct Steam Generation (DSG)
  • 4.3.3. Molten Salt
  • 4.3.4. Oil
• 4.4. Storage
  • 4.4.1. Molten Salt
  • 4.4.1. Saturated Steam
• 4.4.2. Other
• 4.5. Plant Layout
• 4.6. Cooling

5. LCOE Forecast

6. Conclusion

7. References

APPENDIX A - Parabolic Trough Plants

APPENDIX B - Reference Plant CAPEX Breakdown

APPENDIX C - Reference Plant OPEX Breakdown

APPENDIX D - LCOE Forecast Methodology

• Figure 1: Parabolic Trough Power Plant Process Flow Diagram (PFD)
• Figure 2: Parabolic Trough Installed Capacity
• Figure 3: Global Cumulative CSP Installed Capacity Forecast
• Figure 4: Future Applications of CSP
• Figure 5: Annual DNI (kWh/m2/day) (World Resource Institute 2010)
• Figure 6: Solar Collector Assembly
• Figure 7: Torque-Box Collector Structure
• Figure 8: Torque-Tube Collector Structure
• Figure 9: Space frame Collector Structure
• Figure 10: Absorber Tube Schematic
• Figure 11: Methodology
• Figure 12: Reference Plant LCOE Optimization
• Figure 13: Reference Plant CAPEX Distribution
• Figure 14: Reference Plant OPEX Distribution
• Figure 15: Lifecycle Cost Breakdown
• Figure 16: Sankey Diagram of Energy Flows
• Figure 17: LCOE and Tariff Breakdown
• Figure 18: LCOE Dependence on Power Plant Size
• Figure 19: LCOE Dependence on TES Hours
• Figure 20: LCOE Dependency on Solar Resource (DNI)
• Figure 21: LCOE Relative Change with Parasitic and Net Energy Output
• Figure 22: LCOE Dependence of CAPEX Structure
• Figure 23: LCOE Relative Change Category-Wise
• Figure 24: LCOE Relative Change Component-Wise
• Figure 25: LCOE Dependence on the Loan Interest Rate
• Figure 26: LCOE Dependence on the Loan Conditions
• Figure 27: Impact of Equity IRR Target in the Tariff
• Figure 28: Maturity of Renewable Energy Technologies
• Figure 29: Carnot Efficiency of Various Power Cycle [11]
• Figure 30: Production Losses due to U-Tube Failure [12]
• Figure 31: Superheated Steam Cycle [14]
• Figure 32: Saturated Steam Cycle[14]
• Figure 33: Oil and Molten Salt HTF Parabolic Trough Schematic [15]
• Figure 34: Possible CSP Thermal Energy Storage Technologies [11]
• Figure 35: Curtailment of PV due to Lack of Grid Flexibility
• Figure 36: 15% PV Contribution and 10% Dispatchable CSP
• Figure 37: Thermochemical Energy Storage for CSP Application [16]
• Figure 38: Global Cumulative Parabolic Trough Installed Capacity Forecast
• Figure 39: Optimistic Parabolic Trough LCOE Forecast
• Figure 40: Conservative Parabolic Trough LCOE Forecast
• Figure 41: Pessimistic Parabolic Trough LCOE Forecast

• Table 1: CSP Capacity Under Operation, Construction and Development (Q2-2012)
• Table 2: Parabolic Trough Industry Present and Future Capacity (MW)
• Table 3: Parabolic Trough Pros & Cons
• Table 4: Parabolic Trough Performance Indicators
• Table 5: Renewable and Conventional Power Metrics Overview (CSP Today PT Cost and Performance Report)
• Table 6: Conventional Collector Loop Configuration
• Table 7: Parabolic Collector Structure Overview
• Table 8: Mirror Characteristics
• Table 9: Characteristics of the absorber Tube
• Table 10: Different HTF Type Characteristics
• Table 11: CAPEX Breakdown Structure
• Table 12: OPEX Breakdown Structure
• Table 13: Financing Parameters
• Table 14: Reference Plant Technical Parameters
• Table 15: Reference Plant CAPEX Summary
• Table 16: Reference Plant OPEX Summary
• Table 17: Reference Plant Energy Yield Results
• Table 18: Reference Plant Performance Metrics
• Table 19: Results Comparison with Previous CSP Today Report (Early 2011)
• Table 20: LCOE Dependence on the Loan Conditions (1)
• Table 21: Eurotrough to Ultimate Trough Component Comparison [13]
• Table 22: Molten Salt Multi-Component Systems
• Table 23: Overall CSP Progress Rate in 2011
• Table 24: Forecasted LCOE Ranges

CSP Parabolic Trough Report: Cost, Performance and Key Trends (2013) published by CSP Today in October 18, 2012. This report consists of 100+ Pages and the price starts from US $ 2995.

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