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The Concentrated Solar Power Markets Report 2012-13

  • Published:
  • 200+ Pages
  • CSP Today

Abstract

Get ahead in your CSP business with access to top analysis, accurate data and comprehensive guidance on CSP markets

  • Identify the countries that are about to experience explosive CSP growth with our exclusive 5 year forecast of global CSP markets
  • Access the facts behind the hype: uncover the markets that have the right combination of incentives, investment, electricity demand and solar resources with our CSP Markets Scorecard
  • Exclusive insight into developers' strategies, where they're building and who they're partnering with in our in-depth analysis of CSP industry trends
  • Technology trends: get data and analysis that shows how Tower and Fresnel technologies are gaining ground on Parabolic Trough as more effient, innovative technologies become more established
  • Insightful analysis of more than - CSP Markets including emerging growth markets such as South Africa, India, Chile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as well as the better known US and Spain markets
  • Get an insider's view of the CSP industry with our in-depth interviews with senior CSP experts and our wideranging survey of more than 600+ industry executives, scientists and academics

The CSP Markets Report provides you with the facts, data and analysis you need to get ahead of your competitors and get ready for the boom in global CSP markets

Get critical information on the most lucrative global CSP markets, strengthen your business strategy and get ready for growth

The CSP industry has had a momentous 12 months, with some clear trends emerging for the second half of 2012 and beyond. The key for the industry during this important time will be to take advantage of these trends to push ahead and seize market share.

One critical development is the advent of new centers of growth in emerging markets such as Chile, India, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the UAE. In these sun-drenched countries, CSP has been boosted by timely government policy and availability of fi nancial resources from both private and public sources as well as multilateral institutions such as the World Bank and regional development banks.

The shift away from traditional markets such as Spain and the USA means that companies across the CSP industry need to realign their strategies; focusing their attentions on forging new alliances with local fi rms and adapting to new regulatory and business environments in order to grow in the emerging CSP markets.

The challenge for developers, EPCs, suppliers and each segment of the CSP industry is to be able to identify the really valuable opportunities among the grand but often unsubstantiated announcements. The Concentrated Solar Power Markets Report provides you with facts, data and in-depth analysis to help you identify the right opportunities and grow your CSP business in the emerging markets.

Who will benefi t from access to this report?

Suppliers and Contractors

This report will enable your Business Development Directors and Strategists to create a winning business development strategy by identifying where Developcts. This will ensure that you're strategically placed for growth and success in the fastest growing regions.

Developers

This report will enable you to minimize the risk of CSP investments in global markets by providing you with in-depth information on the barriers and drivers in each market, identifying local suppliers and partners and highlighting the potential pitfalls of CSP Investments

A sample of the companies that bought last year's report include:

  • ABB
  • Bechtel
  • Enel Green Power
  • Eskom
  • Fichtner Co.
  • Flagsol
  • GL Grers and EPCs will build the next batch of large scale CSP projeoup
  • Haifa Chemicals
  • Hitachi
  • Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa
  • Mitsubishi Corporation
  • NREL
  • RWE
  • Skyfuel
  • Struthers Wells
  • Worley Parsons

Methodology

The CSP Markets Report has been produced following a rigorous four step research process.

STEP 1. Preliminary Research

At this stage 30+ CSP Today conducts interviews with industry executives to ensure that the information, data and analysis in the report is highly relevant to industry executives. Additionally, a broad industry survey is sent to our database, which has more than 20,000 active contacts, to validate the results.

STEP 2. Gathering and Analyzing Primary Data

CSP Today works with expert authors who carry out a thorough review of CSP related literature. Then CSP Today carries out in-depth interviews with 20+ highly targeted industry executives, scientists and government officials, these interviews give the reader an insider's view into the CSP industry. Further information is gathered through a survey sent to a select group of industry experts in our database. Finally, the information is analyzed and presented in our review.

STEP 3. Peer-Reviewing and Editing

All CSP Today reports are peer-reviewed by at least two independent experts and the resulting feedback is incorporated in the report. Once feedback is incorporated, the report is edited and designed.

STEP 4. Customer Support and Feedback

Customers are encouraged to ask questions about unclear points in the report. The feedback resulting from this interaction is incorporated into future CSP Today reports.

Table of Contents

Introduction

1. Global CSP Industry Analysis

  • 1.1. Current Status of the CSP Industry
  • 1.2. CSP Industry Outlook
  • 1.3. CSP Drivers and Barriers
  • 1.4. Technology Alternatives
  • 1.5. CSP Industry Review
    • 1.5.1. Feed-in Tariff Moratorium in Spain
    • 1.5.2. CSP Projects Switching to PV in the USA
    • 1.5.3. End of the Loan Guarantee Program in the USA
    • 1.5.4. Decrease in US Gas Prices - Shale Gas Boom
    • 1.5.5. Indigenous Group Concerns and Environmental Issues in the USA
    • 1.5.6. Abengoa's Presence in the CSP Market
    • 1.5.7. First Round of 500-MW Ouarzazate Complex in Morocco
    • 1.5.8. Australia Moving Slower
    • 1.5.9. Solar Millennium and Solar Trust of America File for Bankruptcy
    • 1.5.10. TuNur by DESERTEC: Nur Energie plans 2 GW in Tunisia
    • 1.5.11. UAE Committed to CSP
    • 1.5.12. Saudi Arabia Targets 25 GW of CSP by 2032
    • 1.5.13. South Africa: First Round Complete, Second Round Highly Subscribed
    • 1.5.14. India Running Behind Schedule
    • 1.5.15. PV Panels from China and Trade Issues with the USA

2. Global CSP Market

  • 2.1. India
    • 2.1.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.1.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.1.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.2. Saudi Arabia
    • 2.2.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.2.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.2.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.3. USA
    • 2.3.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.3.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.3.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.4. South Africa
    • 2.4.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.4.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.4.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.5. Chile
    • 2.5.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.5.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.5.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.6. Morocco
    • 2.6.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.6.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.6.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.7. China
    • 2.7.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.7.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.7.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.8. Australia
    • 2.8.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.8.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.8.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.9. Algeria
    • 2.9.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.9.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.9.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.10. Spain
    • 2.10.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.10.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.10.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.11. United Arab Emirates
    • 2.11.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.11.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.11.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.12. Tunisia
    • 2.12.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.12.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.12.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.13. Egypt
    • 2.13.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.13.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.13.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.14. Israel
    • 2.14.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.14.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.14.3. Local Market Insight
  • 2.15. Jordan
    • 2.15.1. CSP-specifi c Policy and Electricity Market
    • 2.15.2. CSP-specifi c Market Status
    • 2.15.3. Local Market Insight

3. Market Forecast

  • 3.1. Methodology
  • 3.2. Forecasting Scenarios
  • 3.3. Global Market Forecast
  • 3.4. LCOE Forecast
  • 3.5. CSP Market Forecast by Geographic Region
    • 3.5.1. Spain
    • 3.5.2. United States
    • 3.5.3. India
    • 3.5.4. MENA
    • 3.5.5. South Africa
    • 3.5.6. Asia Pacifi c

4. Conclusions

  • 5. References
  • a) Optimistic Inclination
  • b) Conservative Inclination
  • c) Pessimistic Inclination

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Main Milestones of the CSP Industry
  • Figure 2: Global Cumulative CSP Installed Capacity
  • Figure 3: Operating CSP Capacity (Q1 2012)
  • Figure 4: Top Developers of Operating Plants (Q1 2012)
  • Figure 5: CSP Capacity Under Construction (Q1 2012)
  • Figure 6: Top Developers of CSP Plans Under Construction
  • Figure 7: CSP Current and Future Revenue Distribution
  • Figure 8: CSP Growth Drivers
  • Figure 9: CSP Growth Barriers
  • Figure 10: Levelized Cost Comparison of Solar CSP and Conventional Power Towards Grid Parity (KPMG)
  • Figure 11: Power Sales Agreement Contract Structure in India
  • Figure 12: US Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard
  • Figure 13: US Energy Mix
  • Figure 14: US Grid Distribution Interconnects (US EIA [53])
  • Figure 15: NERC Regional Entities [53]
  • Figure 16: California Summer Daily Demand Curve [54]
  • Figure 17: Natural Gas Spot Prices (Henry Hub, EIA [53])
  • Figure 18: REIPPPP Allocation (MW) per Technology in South Africa
  • Figure 19: CSP MW Allocation According to IRP 2010-2030 [7]
  • Figure 20: Current IPP Procurement Program Structure in South Africa
  • Figure 21: Electricity Price Evolution in Chilean Grid* (CNE, CER [24])
  • Figure 22: Double PPA Structure Proposed in Morocco
  • Figure 23: CSP Electricity Management Structure in Morocco
  • Figure 25: Current Chinese Electricity Market
  • Figure 26: NEM Structure
  • Figure 27: Installed Capacity in Spain (December 2011)
  • Figure 28: Distribution Utilities in Spain (Proyectos Tipo [50])
  • Figure 29: Electricity Market Structure
  • Figure 30: Spanish Winter Daily Demand Curve [51]
  • Figure 31: Spanish Summer Daily Demand Curve [51]
  • Figure 32: End-of-Year CSP Cumulative Capacity in Spain
  • Figure 33: IWPP Structure in UAE
  • Figure 34: Daily Electricity Demand (Source: IEC)
  • Figure 35: Jordan's Single Buyer Model
  • Figure 36: Global Optimistic Market Forecast
  • Figure 37: Global Conservative Market Forecast
  • Figure 38: Global Pessimistic Market Forecast
  • Figure 39: Global CSP Forecast
  • Figure 40: CSP Market Segmentation by Installed Capacity [46]
  • Figure 41: Optimistic LCOE Reduction
  • Figure 42: Conservative LCOE Reduction
  • Figure 43: Pessimistic LCOE Reduction
  • Figure 44: Forecasted LCOE Reduction - All Scenarios
  • Figure 45: Global Optimistic Installed CSP Capacity Breakdown
  • Figure 46: Global Conservative Installed CSP Capacity Breakdown
  • Figure 47: Global Pessimistic Installed CSP Capacity Breakdown
  • Figure 48: Cumulative Installed CSP Capacity in Spain
  • Figure 49: Cumulative Installed CSP Capacity in the USA
  • Figure 50: Cumulative Installed CSP Capacity in India
  • Figure 51: Cumulative Installed CSP Capacity in MENA
  • Figure 52: Cumulative Installed CSP Capacity in South Africa
  • Figure 53: Cumulative Installed Capacity in Asia Pacifi c
  • Figure 54: Forecast Strategic Factors
  • Figure 55: Technology Diffusion Lifecycle
  • Figure 56: CSP Market Indicators and Infl uential Factors

List of Tables

  • Table 1: CSP Market Technology Segmentation
  • Table 2: CSP Market Technology Segmentation (Under Construction)
  • Table 3: CSP Projects with Loan Guarantee Support (DOE)
  • Table 4: CSP Industry Project Pipeline Overview
  • Table 5: PPA Tariff Summary
  • Table 6: CSP Today Scorecard and Ranking
  • Table 7: Country overview: India
  • Table 8: Current Tariff for Allocated CSP and PV Plants in India
  • Table 9: CSP Plants Under Operation in India
  • Table 10: CSP Plants Under Construction in India
  • Table 11: CSP Plants Announced and Under Development in India
  • Table 12: CSP Drivers and Barriers in India
  • Table 13: Country overview: Saudi Arabia
  • Table 14: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Saudi Arabia
  • Table 15: Country overview: the USA
  • Table 16: Federal and State Financing in High CSP Potential States
  • Table 17. RPS Summary in CSP Favorable States
  • Table 18: CSP Operating Plants in the USA
  • Table 19: CSP Plants Under Construction in the USA
  • Table 20: CSP Plants Under Development in the USA
  • Table 21: Announced CSP Plants in the USA
  • Table 22: CSP Drivers and Barriers in the USA
  • Table 23: Country overview: South Africa
  • Table 24: CSP Projects Announced as Preferred Bidders in the First and Second Rounds of the REIPPPP
  • Table 25: CSP Plants Announced and Under Development in South Africa
  • Table 26: CSP Drivers and Barriers in South Africa
  • Table 27: Country overview: Chile
  • Table 28: CSP Plants Under Construction in Chile
  • Table 29: CSP Plants Under Development in Chile
  • Table 30: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Chile
  • Table 31: Country overview: Morocco
  • Table 32: Distribution of Responsibilities in Morocco
  • Table 33: CSP Plants in Operation, Development and Announced in Morocco
  • Table 34: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Morocco
  • Table 35: Country overview: China
  • Table 36: CSP Projects Under Operation in China
  • Table 37: CSP Projects Under Construction in China
  • Table 38: CSP Projects Announced and Under Development in China
  • Table 39: CSP Drivers and Barriers in China
  • Table 40: Country overview: Australia
  • Table 41: CSP Plants in Operation, Development and Announced in Australia
  • Table 42: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Australia
  • Table 43: Country overview: Algeria
  • Table 44: CSP Plants Announced in Algeria
  • Table 45: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Algeria
  • Table 46: Country overview: Spain
  • Table 47: CSP Operating Plants in Spain
  • Table 48: CSP Plants Under Construction in Spain
  • Table 49: CSP Plants Under Development in Spain
  • Table 50: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Spain
  • Table 51: Country overview: the UAE
  • Table 52: CSP Drivers and Barriers in UAE
  • Table 53: Country overview: Tunisia
  • Table 54: CSP Plants Announced in Tunisia
  • Table 55: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Tunisia
  • Table 56: Country overview: Egypt
  • Table 57: CSP Plants Announced in Egypt
  • Table 58: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Egypt
  • Table 59: Country overview: Israel
  • Table 60: CSP Plants in Operation, Under Development and Announced in Israel
  • Table 61: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Israel
  • Table 62: Country overview: Jordan
  • Table 63: CSP Plants Under Development and Announced in Jordan
  • Table 64: CSP Drivers and Barriers in Jordan
  • Table 65: Market Forecast Summary
  • Table 65: Primary CSP Market Growth Drivers in Model
  • Table 66: Overall CSP Progress Rate [46]
  • Table 67: Scorecard Countries
  • Table 69: CSP Installed Capacity Forecast Summary
  • Table 69: Infl uencing Factors for CSP Development
  • Table 70: High Impact Decision Points
  • Table 71: Factor Ranking System
  • Table 72: Survey-based Indicator Weights
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