CSP Today Technology Series

Introduction

The following are two reports for the CSP Today Technology Series, which can be promoted as a bundle:

• CSP Solar Tower Report: Cost, Performance and Key Trends (2013)$2,995
• CSP Parabolic Trough Report: Cost, Performance and Key Trends (2013)$2,995

Buy a bundle of the two reports and save $995!

Abstract

Get ahead in your CSP business with access to top analysis, accurate data and comprehensive guidance on CSP technology

The CSP industry stands at a critical juncture in its development. As opportunities opened up by the ambitious CSP roadmaps outlined in new markets are mediated by the well-versed financial difficulties facing established key markets, the drive towards technological cost reduction and performance optimization will prove critical in enabling the industry to both negotiate its challenges and realise its possibilities.

Measure and optimize your involvement in and profitability from CSP by understanding:

• Which CSP technology offers the most viable route to grid-parity
• Current and projected LCOE's
• Expected penetration levels
• Latest R&D initiatives and technological advancements set to optimize
• performance and reduce costs
• Comprehensive cost breakdown data from CAPEX to OPEX
• Performance sensitivity analysis

CSP PARABOLIC TROUGH REPORT: Cost, Performance and Key Trends (2013)

Plan, measure and optimize your involvement and profitability in Parabolic Trough CSP by utilizing the most up-to-date, comprehensive and hard to access cost and performance data

• Critical Cost Data: Receive the most up-to-date industry validated cost data across the lifespan of a Parabolic Trough CSP plant from CAPEX to OPEX, including a comprehensive component cost breakdown, solar field costs and material replacement costs, presented also as easy to reference appendices (CAPEX and OPEX) for your convenience (in € and $). Realistic Levelized Energy Cost (LCOE) Models: Determine the LCOE of Parabolic Trough CSP based upon the latest, industry validated data. Identify the longitudinal trend with retrospective comparisons and LCOE forecasts, and understand the LCOE dependency relationship to loan conditions, loan interest rates and tariff rates.

• Performance Optimization and Cost Reduction: Utilise our cost benefit analysis of key technology choices, including dry vs. wet cooling and thermal storage vs. no storage, to determine how such features will impact upon the LCOE, lifetime cost and performance of Parabolic Trough CSP. Key Trends and Research Developments: Gain an insight into the latest global research activities and understand how such developments will impact upon the cost reduction and performance optimization of Parabolic Trough CSP, including manufacturing, installation and maintenance initiatives, heat transfer fluid and storage mediums and configurations, and cooling options.

• Market Share of Parabolic Trough CSP: Strategize your investment in and gauge your profit from Parabolic Trough - the most bankable and widely deployed CSP technology - by understanding the long-term market share, growth and viability of this technology, including key comparisons with other CSP technologies and an overview of the collective projected growth of the CSP industry over the coming decade.

• Worldwide List of All Parabolic Trough Plants: A complete and up-to-date global list of Parabolic Trough plants at all stages (‘operating', ‘under construction', ‘under development' and ‘announced'), including critical data on developer, location, MW capacity and storage capacity. Use this data to track the evolving geography of Parabolic Trough, to determine how key technology breakthroughs are being implemented, and identify where business opportunities are ‘up for grabs' for suppliers, service providers and component providers.

Introduction to CSP Parabolic Trough Report

Accounting for no less than 95.6% of the current global installed MW capacity of CSP (1774 MW), Parabolic Trough is the most bankable and widely deployed CSP technology. With a further 2282.5 MW currently in the ‘under construction' phase, Parabolic Trough is set to continue to dominate the CSP landscape for the foreseeable future. Yet, in spite of its maturity and prominence, only a small number of developers and EPC contractors know the real costs of Parabolic Trough and this is not information they are willing to share! Crucially, however, the cost of Parabolic Trough will both dictate the extent to which the potential of this technology is realized and determine the long-term viability of the CSP industry more broadly as it competes against other forms of solar energy (most notably PV), other forms of renewable energy, and conventional energy. Securing a greater degree of cost transparency will be central to the CSP industry achieving the coveted goal of grid-parity. This report brings unprecedented clarity to the costs of Parabolic Trough CSP.

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CSP SOLAR TOWER REPORT: Cost, Performance and Key Trends (2013)

Plan, measure and optimize your involvement and profitability in Solar Tower CSP by utilizing the most up-to-date, comprehensive and hard to access cost and performance data

• Critical Cost Data: Receive the most up-to-date industry validated cost data across the lifespan of a Solar Tower CSP plant from CAPEX to OPEX, including a comprehensive component cost breakdown, solar field costs and material replacement costs, presented also as easy to reference appendices (CAPEX and OPEX) for your convenience (in € and $).

• Realistic Levelized Energy Cost (LCOE) Models: Determine the LCOE of Solar Tower CSP based upon the latest, industry validated data. Identify the longitudinal trend with retrospective comparisons and LCOE forecasts, and understand the LCOE dependency relationship to loan conditions, loan interest rates and tariff rates.

• Performance Optimization and Cost Reduction: Utilise our cost benefit analysis of key technology choices, including dry vs. wet cooling and thermal storage vs. no storage, to determine how such features will impact upon the LCOE, lifetime cost and performance of Solar Tower CSP.

• Key Trends and Research Developments: Gain an insight into the latest global research activities and understand how such developments will impact upon the cost reduction and performance optimization of Solar Tower CSP, including manufacturing, installation and maintenance initiatives, heat transfer fluid and storage mediums and configurations, and cooling options.

• Market Share of Solar tower CSP: Strategize your investment in and gauge your profit from Solar Tower - the most bankable and widely deployed CSP technology - by understanding the longterm market share, growth and viability of this technology, including key comparisons with other CSP technologies and an overview of the collective projected growth of the CSP industry over the coming decade.

• Worldwide List of All Solar tower Plants: A complete and up-to-date global list of Solar Tower plants at all stages (‘operating', ‘under construction', ‘under development' and ‘announced'), including critical data on developer, location, MW capacity and storage capacity. Use this data to track the evolving geography of Solar Tower, to determine how key technology breakthroughs are being implemented, and identify where business opportunities are ‘up for grabs' for suppliers, service providers and component providers.

Introduction to CSP Solar Tower Report

With Solar Tower technology set to occupy an increasingly prominent position within the global CSP landscape - growing from its current market share of 3.3% of the global installed MW capacity to a 21.3% share in plants ‘under construction' and to a 51.2% share in plants ‘under development' - the eyes of the industry are rapidly zooming in on this nascent CSP technology. However, despite the technology having been frequently tipped as representing CSP's most promising path towards grid-parity, only a handful of developers and EPC contractors know the real cost and performance parameters of Solar Tower, and this is not information which they are prepared to share! At this historic juncture in the technology's deployment, a greater transparency in these parameters will prove pivotal to securing the long-term viability and success of both Solar Tower and the CSP industry as a whole. This report brings unprecedented clarity to the costs and performance of Solar Tower CSP.

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Methodology

The CSP Parabolic Trough and CSP Solar Tower Reports have been produced following a rigorous four step research process:

Step 1. Preliminary Research

At this stage 40+ CSP Today conducted interviews with industry executives (including developers, component manufacturers, service providers, financial bodies, EPC's and research labs) to ensure that the focus, scope and information in the report is highly relevant to industry executives. Additionally, a broad industry survey is sent to our database, which has more than 20,000 active contacts, to validate the results.

Step 2. Gathering and Analyzing Primary Data

CSP Today works with expert authors who carry out a thorough review of CSP related literature. Then CSP Today carries out indepth interviews with 20+ highly targeted industry executives, scientists and government officials, these interviews give the reader an insider's view into the CSP industry. The cost data presented in this report has been collected from and validated by executives across the industry to ensure it represents the most up-to-date and accurate cost of Parabolic Trough CSP. The collated data was then run through the Solar Advisory Model (SAM) developed by NREL, which is held as the industry's gold standard for testing. The results of the modeling have been analyzed to create the report.

Step 3. Peer-Reviewing and Editing

All CSP Today reports are peer-reviewed by at least two independent experts and the resulting feedback is incorporated in the report. Once feedback is incorporated, the report is edited and designed.

Step 4. Customer Support and Feedback

Customers have the right to ask questions about unclear points in the report. The feedback resulting from this interaction is incorporated into future CSP Today reports.

About CSP Today

CSP Today is the reference point for CSP professionals and a cornerstone for communications within the industry.

We aim to provide you with industry focused news, events, reports, updates and information for the Concentrated Solar Thermal Power industry.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

CSP PARABOLIC TROUGH REPORT: Cost, Performance and Key Trends (2013)

List of Figures

List of Tables

Abbreviations

Definitions

Executive Summary

1. Parabolic Trough Industry Overview

• 1.1. Technology
• 1.2. Market Status
• 1.3. Industry Challenges and Opportunities
• 1.4. Technical Pros & Cons of Parabolic Troughs

2. Parabolic Trough Technology

• 2.1. Key Parameters
• 2.2. Key Components
  • 2.2.1. Solar Collector Assembly
  • 2.2.2. Heat Transfer Fluid
  • 2.2.3. Thermal Energy Storage

3. Cost and Performance Modeling

• 3.1. Methodology
  • 3.1.1. Plant Configuration
  • 3.1.2. CAPEX and OPEX
  • 3.1.3. Energy Yield Simulation
  • 3.1.4. LCOE Calculation
  • 3.1.5. Techno-Economical Optimal Plant Configuration
• 3.2. Financing Parameters
• 3.3. Weather Data
• 3.4. Reference Plant
  • 3.4.1. Technical Parameters
  • 3.4.2. Weather Data
  • 3.4.3. CAPEX
  • 3.4.4. OPEX
  • 3.4.5. Lifecycle Cost
  • 3.4.6. Energy Yield Results
  • 3.4.7. Economic Results
• 3.5. Sensitivity Analysis
  • 3.5.1. Power Plant Size Impact
  • 3.5.2. TES Capacity Impact
  • 3.5.3. Solar Resource Impact
  • 3.5.4. Technical Parameters Impact
  • 3.5.5. CAPEX Structure Impact
  • 3.5.6. Component Cost Impact
  • 3.5.7. Financing Assumptions Impact
  • 3.5.8. Local Conditions Impact

4. Trends and Development

• 4.1. Power Block
• 4.2. Collector Design
  • 4.2.1. Manufacturing
  • 4.2.2. Installation
  • 4.2.3. Maintenance
• 4.3. Heat Transfer Fluids
  • 4.3.1. Compressed Gas
  • 4.3.2. Direct Steam Generation
  • 4.3.3. Molten Salt
  • 4.3.4. Oil
• 4.4. Storage
  • 4.4.1. Molten Salt
  • 4.4.1. Saturated Steam
  • 4.4.2. Other
• 4.5. Plant Layout
• 4.6. Cooling

5. LCOE Forecast

6. Conclusion

7. References

APPENDIX A - Parabolic Trough Plants

APPENDIX B - Reference Plant CAPEX Breakdown (€ )

APPENDIX C - Reference Plant OPEX Breakdown (€ )

APPENDIX D - Reference Plant CAPEX Breakdown ($) Conversion from Euros to US Dollars at a rate of 1.23 on 01/08/2012

APPENDIX E - Reference Plant OPEX Breakdown ($) Conversion from Euros to US Dollars at a rate of 1.23 on 01/08/2012

APPENDIX F - LCOE Forecast Methodology

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Solar Tower Installed Capacity
• Figure 2: Global Cumulative CSP Installed Capacity Forecast
• Figure 3: Annual DNI (kWh/m2/ day) (World Resource Institute 2010)
• Figure 4: Solar One Heliostat Backside
• Figure 5: Surround-Field Configuration (source: Gemasolar)
• Figure 6: North Field Configuration (source: Abengoa PS10 and PS20)
• Figure 7: Biomimetic Heliostat Field Layout (left) and Radial Stagger Layout (right)
• Figure 8: Solar One Central External-Type Receiver
• Figure 9: Cavity-Type Receiver with Four Apertures (Battleson, 1981)
• Figure 10: Direct Steam Receiver Example (esolar, Brightsource on the left and center) and Molten Salt (Sandia National Laboratories on the right)
• Figure 11: Volumetric and Tubular Receiver (Abengoa, 2012)
• Figure 12: Molten Salt HTF and Storage Steam Turbine Solar Tower
• Figure 13: Steam HTF and Steam Turbine Solar Tower (adapted from: Guliano, Buck, & Eguiguren 2011)
• Figure 14: Air HTF Solar Tower Combined Cycle
• Figure 15: Methodology
• Figure 16: Reference Plant LCOE Optimization
• Figure 17: Reference Plant CAPEX Distribution
• Figure 18: Reference Plant OPEX Distribution
• Figure 19: Lifecycle Cost Breakdown
• Figure 20: Sankey Diagram of Energy Flows
• Figure 21: LCOE and Tariff Breakdown
• Figure 22: LCOE Dependence on Power Plant Size
• Figure 23: LCOE Dependence on TES Hours
• Figure 24: LCOE Dependency on Solar Resource (DNI)
• Figure 25: LCOE Relative Change with Parasitic and Net Energy Output
• Figure 26: LCOE Dependence of CAPEX Structure
• Figure 27: LCOE Relative Change Category-Wise
• Figure 28: LCOE Dependence on the Loan Interest Rate
• Figure 29: LCOE Dependence on the Loan Conditions
• Figure 30: Impact of Equity IRR Target in the Tariff
• Figure 31: Impact of local conditions (DNI + local labor and manufacturing cost)
• Figure 32: Maturity of Renewable Energy Technologies (Central Receiver STE refers to Solar Tower Technology)
• Figure 33: Carnot Efficiency of Various Power Cycle
• Figure 34: Possible CSP Thermal Energy Storage Technologies
• Figure 35: Curtailment of PV due to Lack of Grid Flexibility
• Figure 36: 15% PV Contribution and 10% Dispatchable CSP
• Figure 37: Thermochemical Energy Storage for CSP Application [13]
• Figure 38: Solar Tower Design with Variable Geometry (CTAER, 2012)[21]
• Figure 39: Global Cumulative Solar tower Installed Capacity Forecast
• Figure 40: Optimistic Solar Tower LCOE Forecast
• Figure 41: Conservative solar tower LCOE Forecast
• Figure 42: Pessimistic solar tower LCOE Forecast

List of Tables

• Table 1: CSP Capacity Under Operation, Construction and Development (Q2-2012)
• Table 2: Tower Industry Present and Future Capacity (MW)
• Table 3: Solar Tower Pros and Cons
• Table 4: Solar Tower Performance Indicators
• Table 5: Renewable and Conventional Power Metrics Overview (CSP Today PT Cost and Performance Report)
• Table 6: Overview of Solar Tower Technology and Providers
• Table 7: CAPEX Breakdown Structure
• Table 8: OPEX Breakdown Structure
• Table 9: Financing Parameters
• Table 10: Reference Plant Technical Parameters
• Table 11: Reference Plant CAPEX Summary
• Table 12: Reference Plant OPEX Summary
• Table 13: Reference Plant Energy Yield Results
• Table 14: Reference Plant Performance Metrics
• Table 15: LCOE Dependence on the Loan Conditions (1)
• Table 16: Local Factors for Labor and Manufacturing Costs
• Table 17: Molten Salt Multi-Component Systems
• Table 18: Overall Solar Tower Progress Rate in 2011
• Table 19: Forecasted LCOE Ranges for Solar Tower plants

CSP SOLAR TOWER REPORT: Cost, Performance and Key Trends (2013)

List of Figures

List of Tables

Abbreviations

Definitions

Executive Summary

1. Solar Tower Industry Overview

• 1.1. Technology
• 1.2. Market Status
• 1.3. Industry Challenges and Opportunities
• 1.4. Technical Pros & Cons of Solar Towers

2. Solar Tower Technology

• 2.1. Key Parameters
• 2.2. Key Components
  • 2.2.1. Heliostat
  • 2.2.2. Receiver-Tower
  • 2.2.3. Heat Transfer Fluid
• 2.3. System Design
  • 2.3.1. Solar Tower with Molten Salt as HTF
  • 2.3.2. Solar Tower with Direct Steam Generation (DSG)
  • 2.3.3. Solar Tower-Hybrid Combined Cycle

3. Cost and Performance Modeling

• 3.1. Methodology
  • 3.1.1. Plant Configuration
  • 3.1.2. CAPEX and OPEX
  • 3.1.3. Energy Yield Simulation
  • 3.1.4. LCOE Calculation
  • 3.1.5. Techno-Economical Optimal Plant Configuration
• 3.2. Financing Parameters
• 3.3. Weather Data
• 3.4. Reference Plant
  • 3.4.1. Technical Parameters
  • 3.4.2. Weather Data
  • 3.4.3. CAPEX
  • 3.4.4. OPEX
  • 3.4.5. Lifecycle Cost
  • 3.4.6. Energy Yield Results
  • 3.4.7. Economic Results
• 3.5. Sensitivity Analysis
  • 3.5.1. Power Plant Size Impact
  • 3.5.2. TES Capacity Impact
  • 3.5.3. Solar Resource Impact
  • 3.5.4. Technical Parameters Impact
  • 3.5.5. CAPEX Structure Impact
  • 3.5.6. Component Cost Impact
  • 3.5.7. Financing Assumptions Impact
  • 3.5.8. Local Conditions Impact

4. Trends and Development

• 4.1. Power Block
• 4.2. Solar Field and Heliostats
  • 4.2.1. Manufacturing
  • 4.2.2. Installation
  • 4.2.3. Maintenance
• 4.3. Solar Field Receiver
• 4.4. Heat Transfer Fluids
  • 4.4.1. Compressed Gas
  • 4.4.2. Direct Steam Generation (DSG)
• 4.5. Storage
  • 4.5.1. Molten Salt
  • 4.5.2. Saturated Steam
  • 4.5.3. Other
• 4.6. Plant Layout
  • 4.6.1. Plant Size
  • 4.6.2. Variable Layout
  • 4.6.3. Plant Control
• 4.7. Cooling

5. LCOE Forecast

6. Conclusion

7. References

APPENDIX A - Solar Tower plants

APPENDIX B - Reference Plant CAPEX Breakdown

APPENDIX C - Reference Plant OPEX Breakdown

APPENDIX D - Reference Plant CAPEX Breakdown ($) Conversion from Euros to US Dollars at a rate of 1.23 on 01/08/2012

APPENDIX E - Reference Plant OPEX Breakdown ($) Conversion from Euros to US Dollars at a rate of 1.23 on 01/08/2012

APPENDIX F - LCOE Forecast Methodology

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Solar Tower Installed Capacity
• Figure 2: Global Cumulative CSP Installed Capacity Forecast
• Figure 3: Annual DNI (kWh/m2/ day) (World Resource Institute 2010)
• Figure 4: Solar One Heliostat Backside
• Figure 5: Surround-Field Configuration (source: Gemasolar)
• Figure 6: North Field Configuration (source: Abengoa PS10 and PS20)
• Figure 7: Biomimetic Heliostat Field Layout (left) and Radial Stagger Layout (right)
• Figure 8: Solar One Central External-Type Receiver
• Figure 9: Cavity-Type Receiver with Four Apertures (Battleson, 1981)
• Figure 10: Direct Steam Receiver Example (esolar, Brightsource on the left and center) and Molten Salt (Sandia National Laboratories on the right)
• Figure 11: Volumetric and Tubular Receiver (Abengoa, 2012)
• Figure 12: Molten Salt HTF and Storage Steam Turbine Solar Tower
• Figure 13: Steam HTF and Steam Turbine Solar Tower (adapted from: Guliano, Buck, & Eguiguren 2011)
• Figure 14: Air HTF Solar Tower Combined Cycle
• Figure 15: Methodology
• Figure 16: Reference Plant LCOE Optimization
• Figure 17: Reference Plant CAPEX Distribution
• Figure 18: Reference Plant OPEX Distribution
• Figure 19: Lifecycle Cost Breakdown
• Figure 20: Sankey Diagram of Energy Flows
• Figure 21: LCOE and Tariff Breakdown
• Figure 22: LCOE Dependence on Power Plant Size
• Figure 23: LCOE Dependence on TES Hours
• Figure 24: LCOE Dependency on Solar Resource (DNI)
• Figure 25: LCOE Relative Change with Parasitic and Net Energy Output
• Figure 26: LCOE Dependence of CAPEX Structure
• Figure 27: LCOE Relative Change Category-Wise
• Figure 28: LCOE Dependence on the Loan Interest Rate
• Figure 29: LCOE Dependence on the Loan Conditions
• Figure 30: Impact of Equity IRR Target in the Tariff
• Figure 31: Impact of local conditions (DNI + local labor and manufacturing cost)
• Figure 32: Maturity of Renewable Energy Technologies (Central Receiver STE refers to Solar Tower Technology)
• Figure 33: Carnot Efficiency of Various Power Cycle
• Figure 34: Possible CSP Thermal Energy Storage Technologies
• Figure 35: Curtailment of PV due to Lack of Grid Flexibility
• Figure 36: 15% PV Contribution and 10% Dispatchable CSP
• Figure 37: Thermochemical Energy Storage for CSP Application
• Figure 38: Solar Tower Design with Variable Geometry (CTAER, 2012)
• Figure 39: Global Cumulative Solar tower Installed Capacity Forecast
• Figure 40: Optimistic Solar Tower LCOE Forecast
• Figure 41: Conservative solar tower LCOE Forecast
• Figure 42: Pessimistic solar tower LCOE Forecast

List of Tables

• Table 1: CSP Capacity Under Operation, Construction and Development (Q2-2012)
• Table 2: Tower Industry Present and Future Capacity (MW)
• Table 3: Solar Tower Pros and Cons
• Table 4: Solar Tower Performance Indicators
• Table 5: Renewable and Conventional Power Metrics Overview (CSP Today PT Cost and Performance Report)
• Table 6: Overview of Solar Tower Technology and Providers
• Table 7: CAPEX Breakdown Structure
• Table 8: OPEX Breakdown Structure
• Table 9: Financing Parameters
• Table 10: Reference Plant Technical Parameters
• Table 11: Reference Plant CAPEX Summary
• Table 12: Reference Plant OPEX Summary
• Table 13: Reference Plant Energy Yield Results
• Table 14: Reference Plant Performance Metrics
• Table 15: LCOE Dependence on the Loan Conditions (1)
• Table 16: Local Factors for Labor and Manufacturing Costs
• Table 17: Molten Salt Multi-Component Systems
• Table 18: Overall Solar Tower Progress Rate in 2011
• Table 19: Forecasted LCOE Ranges for Solar Tower plants

CSP Today Technology Series published by CSP Today in October 18, 2012. This report consists of 200+ Pages and the price starts from US $ 4995.