Global Fixed Broadband Subscriber Forecast: 2008-2018 published by Dittberner Associates, Inc. in February, 2009. This report price starts from US $ 6000.
Abstract
INTRODUCTION
This interactive tool was created to analyze the growth in broadband globally.
DITTBERNER surveyed 350 service providers in 66 countries, which
represents 90% of the world' s population and over 95% of all broadband
subscribers. The information recorded from this survey includes the number of
broadband , as well as the type of access technology, fixed telephone lines,
PC Ownership and basic Cable TV customers, if any. All of this information and
more can be found in the various spreadsheets at this end of this workbook.
The tool will be updated semi-annually and modified to better fit the needs of
DITTBERNER' s customers. If you have any questions or comments, please contact
us.
1) Scope
This workbook contains data compiled during DITTBERNER' s global survey of
service providers. The information in this workbook was acquired through use
of service provider data, interviews, and DITTBERNER' s extensive databases.
This tool is meant to augment other DITTBERNER resources, "BBA Market Share
Analysis", which is an analysis of the quarterly port shipments by vendors
of DSL and FTTH equipment, "BBA Installed Base", which details the
number of ports shipped to each service provider by the equipment vendors, and
"Global Broadband Subscriber Analysis", which tracks the growth in the
350 service providers surveyed by DITTBERNER. In summary, "BBA Market
Analysis" details the shipments made by vendors, "BBA Installed
Base", details who the vendors shipped the equipment to, and "Global
Broadband Subscriber Analysis" details who the service provider is serving
with this equipment and this tool "Broadband Subscriber Forecast" which
forecasts the growth in countries served and therefore the expected growth in
shipments and installed base..
2) Rationale
DITTBERNER created this new tool as a service to its customers. There are many
reasons why an analytical forecast of the subscriber market growth is
important:
a) This tool allows DITTBERNER' s customers to identify the markets
which are experiencing the fastest growth. b) It allows customers to
determine which regions, sub-regions or countries are attractive markets by
showing the rate of growth and the preferred access technologies. c)
The data highlights which access technologies are growing fastest, and which
have the greatest future potential. d) Although the Broadband
subscriber base is growing, much of the equipment shipments are intended to
replace older installed equipment. By monitoring the growth in subscribers,
users of this tool can determine the progress of the network upgrades
undertaken by individual service providers.
3) Future Enhancements
This tool will be enhanced and updated as the market evolves and the needs of
DITTBERNER' s customers develop. Currently, DITTBERNER plans to enhance this
tool in two ways:
- a) Add New Technologies: Broadband cable is nascent so it is hard
to predict its full impact for now.
- b) Expand Countries:
4) Definition of Sorting Terms:
a) Year: the calendar year. Currently from 2001 to 2018.
b) Region: this is the geographic region of the world.
This tool conforms to the common four regions of the world: NA-North America,
CALA-Caribbean and Latin America, EMEA-Europe, Middle east and Africa, APAC-
Asia and Pacific.
Due to the spread of the telecommunication industry to many emerging markets
that previously were much smaller, DITTBERNER has further divided the regions
into sub-regions.
The sub-regions in each region are:
- i) NA
- ii) CALA
- Central America
- South America
- iii) EMEA
- Western Europe
- Eastern Europe
- Middle East and North Africa
- Central and South Africa
- iv) APAC
- Asia
- Indian Ocean and Central Asia
- Asia Pacific
c) Sub-region: geographic areas that comprise regions.
Sub-regions are usually based on locality, linguistics, and historical ties.
The growth of emerging markets has prompted re-evaluating how the regions are
classified and has caused DITTBERNER to provide further granularity in its
analysis. The sub-region classifications are not perfect, but do attempt to
group similar countries together based on level of development and other
factors. The sub-regions and the countries that comprise them that are covered
in this survey are:
- i) NA
- ii) C America
- Mexico Costa Rica El Salvador
- iii) S America
- Argentina Chile
- Brazil Peru
- Colombia Venezuela
- iv) W Europe
- Austria France Netherlands Norway Sweden
- Belgium Germany Ireland Portugal Switzerland
- Denmark Greece Italy Spain United Kingdom
- v) E Europe
- Bulgaria Estonia Hungary Poland Romania
- Croatia Finland Latvia Slovak Republic Russia
- Czech Republic Lithuania Slovenia Ukraine
- vi) MENA
- Algeria Jordan Qatar Turkey
- Egypt Morocco Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates
- Israel Oman Tunisia
- vii) C &S Africa
- viii) Asia
- China Korea Viet Nam
- Hong Kong Taiwan
- Japan Thailand
- ix) Asia Pacific
- Australia New Zealand
- Indonesia Philippines
- x) IOCA
- India Mauritius
- Malaysia Singapore
d) Country: the country the service provider is operating in.
The
country is usually the political entity. One exception is Hong King, which is
a special administrative region of China, but handled separately for
historical and developmental reason.
e) Access Technology: the type of technology being used to provide
broadband services.
Five types of access technology considered currently:
Cable Modems, DSL, FTTB, (both FTTB/VDSL and FTTB/LAN), FTTH, and UTP LAN.
This tool is not meant to cover all the corporate access techniques. Five
types of access technology considered currently: Cable Modems, DSL, FTTB,
(both FTTB/VDSL and FTTB/LAN), FTTH, and UTP LAN. This tool is not meant to
cover all the corporate access techniques.
Forecast Methodology
A) Subscriber Forecast
1) Historical Data
Historical data was garnered from a number of sources, including interviews,
regulatory agencies, industry associations and company reports. DITTBERNER' s
findings for forecasting purposes depended on the access technology in
question:
i) Infrastructure
a) ADSL - Identified the fixed lines in the telephony infrastructure that had
been installed. This placed an upper limit on the possible ADSL subscribers
that could be served
b) Cable Modems:identified the number of Homes Passed with a cable TV
infrastructure capable of two-way transmission. This placed an upper limit on
the number of possible cable Modem customers.
c) FTTB - Identified the number of dwelling units passed and marketed by a
fiber network. This placed an upper limit on the number of FTTB subscribers
possible.
d) FTTH - Identified the number of dwelling units passed and marketed by a
fiber network. This placed an upper limit on the number of FTTH subscribers
possible.
e) UTP/FTP LAN - Identified the number of dwelling units passed and marketed
by a UTP/FTP LAN. This placed an upper limit on the number of UTP/FTP LAN
subscribers possible.
The information above was necessary for DITTBERNER to be able to estimate
growthin conjunction with historical information such as homes built or growth
in population as well as announced plans of service providers and governments.
ii) Past Growth
It was necessary to know the past growth of different access technologies in
different markets. The assumption was that service providers would continue
their momentum unless a momentous event occurred. The most common changes were
that a new technology had been introduced, or that market saturation had
occurred.
2) Market Saturation
In general, saturation becomes more evident once the forecasted market
penetration reaches 80%. DITTBERNER constructed its forecast model based on
the accepted economic axion "all being things equal, quality wins out in the
long run." Quality in this case is the reliability and the bandwidth of the
connection. This being the case, DITTBERNER arranged the consumer' s access
technology choices in the following order from most to least preferred:
a) FTTH and FTTB: Fiber has a 10 Tera Bps, (1013), bandwidth, is a dielectric
therefore it is immune to radiated and conducted noise and has a longer life
and lower maintenance of any media. This will allow the service provider in
the long run to offer the best bandwidth with the best reliability at the
lowest price. FTTH and FTTB serve mutually exclusive markets, so although FTTB
will use some active electronics in the building it will still be of higher
quality than any other access technology being considered for multidwelling
units.
b) Broadband Cable: this is very new and still not deployed outside of pilot
projects. It uses fiber to get close to the premise and then uses a shared
coax to reach the premise. It has the ability to offer up to 5 Gbps, but would
probably be shared and would offer 50-100 Mbps. It reuses the installed HFC
infrastructure so it avoids much of the high initial cost of FTTH and FTTB
networks.
c) Cable Modems: an upgraded HFC network can deliver 5 Gbps to the house.
However an HFC network using RF multiplex technology reserves a great amount
of that bandwidth for broadcast TV. However, it is relatively inexpensive for
a Cable Modem provider to increase the bandwidth to a premise by node
splitting, that is, installing another CMTS and moving half the existing
customers off of the existing CMTS. This would double the available bandwidth
for each customer.
d) DSL: Most but not all DSL has relatively low bandwidth, which cannot be
increased just with new equipment. The LOOP length determines the maximum
bandwidth capable. Because of this, it is felt that if a consumer had a choice
between Cable Modems and DSL he would choose Cable, largely because the Cable
Operator could increase the bandwidth beyond what the LOOP will support. In a
saturated market where the only way to grow customers is by poaching them from
your competitor, DITTBERNER believes DSL has an uphill battle against cable.
e) UTP LAN: this is used in eastern Europe and Russia. It is inexpensive and
provides good access to local servers but has low quality of service and poor
international connections. It' s biggest advantage is its low price and that it
allows unlimited content download, two features that make it very attractive
in that region.
DITTBERNER used this order of precedence to resolve market share issues in a
saturated market, by removing a subscriber from the addressable market of a
lower level service, to that of a higher level service . In essence, once a
subscriber was lost to a higher level service it was assumed that they would
never go back to a lower one. Some churn always exists, but the error
introduced by this assumption is small. Each of these access technologies
typically has some compensation because they play to a different market in
most countries. There will always be a small percentage of the households that
are so remote that they will not get any broadband except through wireless
means. There will be some who only have DSL, etc. The smallest subset of the
whole market of households will be the one that has FTTH and FTTB.
3) Miscellaneous Constraints
The upper limit constraints on the addressable market were listed in section
1) on the infrastructure. However, one of the most important constraints at
this time is the ownership of PCs. Broadband growth is driven mostly by
consumers, and the platform for launching and delivering services is the PC.
PC ownership is highest in the USA at 75 per 100 people. Most of the
developing nations have below 10 per 100 people. PC ownership had to be
catalogued and then forecasted using an acceptable addressable market. The
addressable market for PCs was set at 130% of the number of households. This
means that every household has a PC as would most of the small enterprises.
These together make up the vast majority of broadband connections in a market,
at which point the market would be saturated for PCs.
In reality, PCs are upgraded both due to failure and due to new applications
requiring more processing power. DITTBERNER' s survey assumed existing PCs were
sufficient as well as necessary for broadband subscriber growth. In the near
future, broadband services that are not PC-based will increasingly become
significant and IPTV is a very good example for such services.
The constraints used for each access technology in each country are listed at
the top of the page in the worksheet, "BB Growth by Country" Short comments on
the market and access technologies of each country can also be found there.
4) Calculation
By using past subscriber growth data and knowing the addressable markets for
each technology, DITTBERNER was able to apply general statistical methods to
calculate future growth of broadband subscribers for different access
technologies.
B) Port Shipment Forecast
The forecast for new port shipments was the sum of two components:
a) The number of ports needed for new subscribers. This was calculated as 140%
of the number of new subscribers.
b) The sum of ports needed to replace ports lost due to routine maintenance,
wear-and-tear, or network upgrades due to replacing a vendor or using newer
technology. This was calculated as 25% of the sum of the ports shipped seven
years previously, six years previously, five years previously, and four years
preoviously. In this way all ports are assumed replaced within eight years of
initial shipment. For example, in 2007 25% of the ports shipped in 2000, 2001,
2002, and 2003 are assumed replaced.
Table of Contents
Fixed Broadband Forecast and Summary Interactive Tool
Introduction
- Scope
- Rationale for Tool
- Geographic Region and Subregion Definition
- Region Definition
- Subregion
Executive Summary
- Introduction
- Global Broadband Subscriber Forecast 2001-2018:
- Annual Net Subscriber Additions:
- Annual Port Shipments Forecast by Technology:
- Fastest Growing National Markets in 2018:
- Largest Fixed Line Broadband Subscriber Countries in 2018:
- Workbook Contents Description:
- Conclusion
Forecast Methodology
- Subscriber Forecast
- Port Shipment Forecast
Regional Broadband Growth 2006-2017
Subregional Growth 2007-2017
BB Growth by Country
Growth Comparison by Country
Port Shipped Forecast by Country
Port Shipped Forecast by Technology
Cable TV Market Forecast
PC Ownership Growth Forecast
Fixed Line Growth Forecast
