UK Town Centre Retailing 2009

UK Town Centre Retailing 2009 published by Datamonitor in November, 2009. This report consists of 138 pages and the price starts from US $ 3450.

Introduction

Abstract

Introduction

This report provides detailed ranking and information on the Top 100 GB towns and shopping centres, providing shopping populations, vacancy rates, sizes and more. Moreover, it includes data and trends for town centre retailing as a whole and by sector over the last 10 years and forecasts for the next five years, as well as comprehensive analysis of current and future town centre retail issues.

Scope of this research

• Market value and growth, space, sales densities and store numbers 1998-2008 with forecasts to 2013
• Comprehensive analysis of the pipeline of all shopping centre developments over 25,000 sq m due to open 2008-2015
• Review of performance of recently opened shopping centres, such as Westfield London and Cardiff St Davids
• Analysis of top 100 GB shopping destinations by 12 criteria including vacancy rates, size, proportion of AB shoppers and size of shopping population

Research and analysis highlights

As the largest, most discretionary location and one that is being squeezed by the transfer of spend to the grocers and online, town centre is shrinking the fastest of any retail location, contracting by 3.4% in 2009. The resultant shakeout to remove excess capacity across several sectors is permanently changing the face of high street retailing.

While a number of retail developments have been put on hold owing to the economic downturn, the majority of Verdict' s Top 10 town centres have experienced recent new developments. This is a reflection of the increasing pull of these locations to the detriment of secondary town centres, a trend that we expect the economic downturn to accelerate.

Over the past year, the rise in vacancy rates has forced retailers and landlords to be more flexible. Landlords have to be more proactive in tempting retailers to take on space meaning there are some attractive deals on offer for retailers.

Key reasons to purchase this research

• Identify the leading town centre locations and how they are performing relatively to each other and their own history
• Track town centre' s retail performance as a whole, or by individual sector, both over the last decade and its likely performance moving forward
• Identify which areas of the UK are set for development of their retail propositions and how they are likely to fare

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Key findings
• Main conclusions
• Town centre summary

RETAIL ISSUES

• Recession confirms long term decline line
  • High street turmoil turns slowdown into downturn

• Heightened frugality drives polarisation of demand
  • Consumer spending on non-food becomes much more considered

• Traditional high street specialists struggle to remain relevant
  • Specialists fight waning relevance vs grocers, non-specialists and online

• Much secondary retail space disappears
  • New premium space further damages secondary locations

• Don' t pin hopes on planning and competition legislation
  • Favourable legislation will do little to aid town centres

• Dealing with unwanted space through closer collaboration
  • Vacancy rates rise
  • Pop-up stores fill vacant spaces
  • Other landlord-led innovations emerge

STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS

• Retailers need to be lean and competive as market contracts
• Landlord flexibility will protect rental income and asset value

TOP 100 TOWN CENTRES & MALLS

• Methodology
• Top 10
  • Central London
  • Glasgow
  • Manchester
  • Birmingham
  • Leeds
  • Newcastle
  • Edinburgh
  • Nottingham
  • Kingston-upon-Thames
  • Milton Keynes

TOWN CENTRE VS OTHER LOCATIONS

• Growing pressure on town centre hits high street in particular
• Retail sales by location
  • Town centre suffers from exposure to discretionary non-food retailers

• Retail spend by location
• Sales and sources of growth
  • Deflation and space closure drive declines

• Space by location
  • Significant decline due to closures, collapses and cautious approach

• Sales densities by location
• Store numbers by location
• Forecast
  • Continuing sector shakeout will see town centre diminish in significance

SECTOR SUMMARIES

• Shakeout in some sectors changes high street retailing forever
• Books, news & stationery specialists
  • To bottom out in 2011-12 as liking for high street bookshop endures

• Clothing & footwear specialists
  • Premium new space helps prop up sales growth

• Department stores
  • Retailers seek new routes to growth as consumers become more frugal

• Electricals specialists
  • Retailers close unprofitable high street stores

• Food & grocery specialists
  • Impressive growth despite space consolidation

• Furniture & floorcoverings specialists
  • Market in throes of painful contraction

• General merchandisers
  • Woolworths collapse has major impact but value operators show growth

• Health & beauty specialists
  • Recession proof sector achieves huge growth in sales densities

• Music & video specialists
  • Sales transfer online - HMV last man standing on high street

TOWN CENTRE WINNERS AND LOSERS

• Huge changes on the high street
• Total sales
  • Value orientated retailers prosper as discretionary spend declines

• Operating profit
  • Deep discounting and weak sterling impact adversely on profitability

• Operating margin
  • Town centre retailers experience marked decline in operating margins

• Space
  • Renewed focus on improving exisiting space as rate of expansion slows

• Sales densities
  • Sales densities decline as discretionary demand falls away

• Store numbers
  • Short term opportunities exist as capacity falls out of the market

• Advertising media expenditure
  • Advertising declines as town centre based retailers aim to cut costs

NEW RETAIL DEVELOPMENTS

• Major retail developments in 2008
  • Three new centres perform solidly

• Westfield London, White City
  • Benefits from prime location and differentiated proposition

• Liverpool One
  • Raises city' s destination status

• Cabot Circus, Bristol
  • Experiences a solid first year but challenges mount

• Other significant developments in 2008
• Developments in the pipeline
  • New developments tail off

• St David' s II, Cardiff
  • Faces high vacancy levels on opening

• Westfield Stratford, London
  • Westfield to further challenge supremacy of central London

• On hold/cancelled developments
  • Uncertain outlook fosters new era of caution

GLOSSARY

• Terminology
• Abbreviations

TABLES

• Table: Town centre sales and space 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013e
• Table: Town centre retailers strategies for success 2009
• Table: Town centre landlords strategies for success 2009
• Table: Weighting of factors determining Top 100 centres in 2009
• Table: 1-10 of Verdict' s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009
• Table: 11-30 of Verdict' s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009
• Table: 31-60 of Verdict' s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009
• Table: 61-100 of Verdict' s Top 100 UK shopping centres 2009
• Table: Retail location definitions 2009
• Table: Retail spending by location at current prices 1998-2009e
• Table: Sales through town centre retailers 1998-2009e
• Table: Sources of growth for town centre retailers 1998-2009e
• Table: Town centre floorspace vs all stores 1998-2009e
• Table: Sales densities by location at current prices 1998-2009e
• Table: Store numbers by location 1998-2009e
• Table: Town centre summary data 2003, 2008 & 2013
• Table: Town centre vs total retail spending 1998-2013
• Table: Town centre sales and share of sector 2009
• Table: Books, news, stationery specialists in town centre 2004, 08 & 09
• Table: Clothing & footwear specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 & 09
• Table: Department stores in town centre 2004, 2008 and 2009
• Table: Electricals specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 and 2009
• Table: Food & grocery specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 and 2009
• Table: Furniture & f' covering specialists in town centres 2004, 08 & 09
• Table: General merchandise retailers in town centres 2004, 2008 & 09e
• Table: Health & beauty specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 and 2009
• Table: Music & video specialists in town centres 2004, 2008 and 2009
• Table: Key town centre retailers UK turnover record 2004-2009
• Table: Key town centre retailers operating profits 2004-2009
• Table: Key town centre retailers operating margins 2004-2009
• Table: Key town centre retailers total selling space 2004-2009
• Table: Key town centre retailers densities 2004-2009
• Table: Key town centre retailers total store numbers 2004-2009
• Table: Top 12 town centre retailers by advertising expenditure 2009
• Table: Major developments 2008
• Table: Other new developments 2008
• Table: Development pipeline 2009-2011 as at October 2009
• Table: Development pipeline 2012-2015 as at October 2009
• Table: On hold/cancelled developments 2009-2015 as at October 2009

FIGURES

• Figure: Town centre retailing key issues 2010
• Figure: Town centre sales growth rates % 1999-2009
• Figure: Polarisation of demand 2009
• Figure: Electricals channel shares - forecast changes 2013 on 2008
• Figure: Specialist proposition diversification - HMV 2009
• Figure: Timeline of major legislative developments 2005-2009
• Figure: Estimated average vacancy rates June 2008 and June 2009
• Figure: Verdict estimate of prime rental growth % 1999-2009
• Figure: Gap 1969 Pop-up store 2009
• Figure: Growth of retail sales by location 1998-2009e
• Figure: Share of total retail expenditure by location 1998-2009e
• Figure: Town centre proportion of total retail sales 2003, 2008 & 2013e
• Figure: Retail spending growth vs town centre 1998-2013
• Figure: Town centre sales sources of growth 1998-2013
• Figure: S ector breakdown of town centre sales 2004 and 2013e
• Figure: Books, news & stationery specialists town centre sales 2004-13e
• Figure: Books, news & stationery specialist town centre space 2004-13e
• Figure: Clothing & footwear specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e
• Figure: Clothing & footwear specialists town centre space 2004-2013e
• Figure: Department store town centre sales 2004-2013e
• Figure: Department store town centre space 2004-2013e
• Figure: Electricals specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e
• Figure: Electricals specialists town centre space 2004-2013e
• Figure: Food & grocery specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e
• Figure: Food & grocery specialists town centre space 2004-2013e
• Figure: Furniture & f' covering specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e
• Figure: Furniture & f' covering specialists town centre space 2004-2013e
• Figure: General merchandise retailers town centre sales 2004-2013e
• Figure: Health & beauty specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e
• Figure: Health & beauty specialists town centre space 2004-2013e
• Figure: Music & video specialists town centre sales 2004-2013e
• Figure: Music & video specialists town centre space 2004-2013e
• Figure: Key town centre retailers sales growth (adj) 2009 on 2004
• Figure: Key town centre retailers sales growth (adj) 2009 on 2008
• Figure: Space growth of key town centre retailers (adj) 2009 on 2004
• Figure: Space growth of key town centre retailers (adj) 2009 on 2008
• Figure: Sales density growth of town centre stores 2009 on 2004
• Figure: Sales density growth of town centre stores 2009 on 2008
• Figure: Change % in key town centre retailers store nos 2009 on 2004
• Figure: Change % in key town centre retailers store nos 2009 on 2008

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