Datamonitor' s research shows that out to 2020, COPD will continue to be a
major threat to Chinese adults. The number of prevalent cases of COPD will
increase substantially between 2010 and 2020, increasing from approximately 42
million to nearly 56 million. This increase will be driven by demographic
changes over the forecast period, including increased survival and a larger
• Gain insight to market potential, including a robust 10-year
epidemiology forecast of COPD prevalent cases in China.
• Understand the key epidemiologic risk factors associated with COPD in China.
The strong association between age and COPD means that the prevalence of COPD
in the future will be especially sensitive to the increased survival that will
result as access to healthcare increases; even though the disease is
irreversible, its progress can be significantly slowed by quitting smoking and
seeking medical care.
Fewer than half of the estimated 42.1 million prevalent cases in 2010 were in the population between the ages of 40 and 60 years (14.6 million), which indicates that COPD is a disease of the aged in China. The number of men with COPD in 2010 (about 29.3 million) was more than twice the number of women with COPD in 2010 (about 12.8 million).
Urbanization will play a major role in the increase in the number of prevalent cases in between 2010 and 2020. The average annual growth rate in urban settings will be four times that of the rural population (5.6% versus 1.4%). Over the forecast period, the number of prevalent cases in the urban population will grow from about 18.6 to 29 million.
• What are the most robust epidemiological studies for COPD prevalence in
• How will the patient population change over the next decade in the China?
• How do changes in population structure or risk factors affect the number of COPD cases in China in the forecast period?
Epidemiologic results summary
DISEASE DEFINITION AND DIAGNOSOTIC CRITERIA
Spirometry is the gold standard for defining COPD
Classification of COPD
TRENDS IN COPD EPIDEMIOLOGY IN CHINA
Under-diagnosis is common
The burden of COPD is increasing
Models of COPD burden
Trends in COPD over the forecast period
DRIVERS OF COPD EPIDEMIOLOGY IN CHINA
EPIDEMIOLOGIC FORECASTING OF COPD IN CHINA
Sources of epidemiologic data
Segmentation by age
Segmentation by gender
Segmentation by urban-rural split
Segmentation by stage
Strengths of our epidemiologic projections
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