The 2011 - 20 forecast period will see the loss of exclusivity for the leading
non-insulin antidiabetic Actos franchise, while new launches include the first
once-weekly GLP-1 agonists and the oral SGLT-2 inhibitor class, to compete in
an increasingly crowded treatment algorithm in type 2 diabetes. This report
was updated in May 2012 to reflect recent developments in the market.
Features and benefits
Forecast leading non-insulin antidiabetic brands in the 2011 - 20 period.
Quantify the sales potential late-stage pipeline products.
Assess the impact of generic competition and sales restrictions on the
Actos (pioglitazone) franchise.
Determine the impact of recent clinical trial results and regulatory
decisions.
Highlights
Despite moderate efficacy, a benign safety profile and oral delivery will mean
that DPP-IV inhibitors continue to dominate branded non-insulin antidiabetics,
with the class forecast to be worth over $8bn in 2020, led by gold standard
Januvia.
The GLP-1 agonist class sees once-weekly product launch, but doubts about
their efficacy will allow once-daily Victoza (liraglutide; Novo Nordisk) to
retain a leading position in the class and reach blockbuster status early in
the forecast period.
The US market for key non-insulin products will decline temporarily after the
loss of exclusivity for Actos in August 2012. Use of the product in Europe has
been reduced in 2011 due to bladder cancer risk concerns. However, in Japan
Takeda's strong market position and poor generic penetration will mean a
substantial revenue stream through 2020.
Your key questions answered
Use the Datamonitor patient-based forecast to quantify key non-insulin
product sales at country, class, molecule and brand levels.
Identify which brands will grow in the 2011 - 2020 forecast period and
which markets are more receptive to growth.
Use volume data to understand overriding trends in the key non-insulin
antidiabetics market.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Update details: May 2012
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Related reports
Published diabetes reports
MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for key non-insulin antidiabetic drugs
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Methodology flow
Patent expiries
New product launches
Additional forecast methodology
MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Current and future market dynamics overview
DPP-IV inhibitors and GLP-1 agonists will dominate non-insulin
antidiabetics sales
US continues to dominate antidiabetic sales
US market declines with loss of Actos exclusivity before rising again
Japanese market provides key late-stage revenues for Actos franchise
even with generic competition
GLP-1 agonists will continue to see a high uptake in France
Germany's reimbursement regulations could raise market entry barrier for
pipeline products
DPP-IV inhibitors will dominate key non-insulin antidiabetic sales in
Italy
Marketed and pipeline products drive Spanish market growth
Strong growth in diagnosed diabetes population drives UK market
Figure: GLP-1 agonist sales in the seven major markets, by product ($m),
2011 - 20
Figure: Byetta (exenatide twice daily; Amylin) sales for diabetes, by
country ( $m ), 2011 - 20
Figure: Victoza (liraglutide; Novo Nordisk) sales for diabetes, by country
( $m ), 2011 - 20
Figure: Bydureon (exenatide once-weekly; Amylin/Alkermes) sales for
diabetes, by country ( $m ), 2011 - 20
Figure: Lyxumia (lixisenatide; Sanofi/Zealand Pharma) sales for diabetes,
by country ( $m ), 2011 - 20
Figure: Syncria (albiglutide; GlaxoSmithKline) sales for diabetes, by
country ( $m ), 2011 - 20
Figure: LY2189265 (dulaglutide; Eli Lilly) sales for diabetes, by country
( $m ), 2011 - 20
Figure: Sales of branded and generic pioglitazone (and combinations),
seven major markets ($m), 2011 - 20
Figure: Actos franchise (Takeda) sales for diabetes, by country ( $m ),
2011 - 20
Figure: SGLT-2 inhibitor sales in the seven major markets, by product
($m), 2011 - 20
Figure: Forxiga franchise (Bristol-Myers Squibb/AstraZeneca) sales for
diabetes, by country ( $m ), 2011 - 20
Figure: Canagliflozin franchise (Johnson & Johnson/Mitsubishi Tanabe)
sales for diabetes, by country ( $m ), 2011 - 20
Figure: Empagliflozin franchise (BI-10773; Boehringer Ingelheim/Eli Lilly)
sales for diabetes, by country ( $m ), 2011 - 20
Figure: Ipragliflozin franchise (ASP-1941; Astellas) sales for diabetes,
by country ( $m ), 2011 - 20
Market and Product Forecasts: Non-Insulin Antidiabetics - Incretin mimetics face off in type 2 diabetes published by Datamonitor in May 29, 2012. This report consists of Pages: 95 and the price starts from US $ 11400.
