Assessment of the current and future schizophrenia market using a patient-based forecasting methodology. The analysis is designed to understand the future dynamics of the schizophrenia drug market, with a particular focus on pipeline therapies.
Coming off the end of a large patent cliff, the schizophrenia market is estimated to be worth $5.2bn in the seven major markets in 2012 (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). Ongoing US price increases and atypical antipsychotic depots will stabilize the market in the medium term, while the fate of novel oral drugs will govern the future direction of the schizophrenia market.
FEATURES AND BENEFITS
Access Datamonitor's patient-based schizophrenia market forecast in the seven major markets, with transparent methodology and clear assumptions.
Evaluate a highly granular forecast with sales value and volume projections to 2021 at the country, class, product, and line of therapy levels.
Understand schizophrenia market dynamics and which factors will lead to commercial success.
Review the products that Datamonitor forecasts to launch over the next 10 years, and how each subsequent launch will shape the market.
In the aftermath of recent patent expiries, the oral antipsychotic market with remain flat over 2012-15. However, expansion of the antipsychotic depot class will help the overall schizophrenia market to return to growth, with ongoing uptake of Invega Sustenna and the expected launches of Abilify depot, ALKS 7090, and Fanapt depot.
Abilify is the current highest-selling schizophrenia drug, but with Bristol-Myers Squibb and Otsuka due to lose exclusivity for Abilify from Q4 2014, the Abilify depot will assume the position of market leader. As well as competing with established antipsychotic depots, Abilify depot will benefit from Otsuka's strong Abilify prescriber base.
RG1678 will emerge as the most successful of the late-stage oral pipeline. Whereas the majority of its competitors are relatively undifferentiated from currently available products, RG1678 is unique in that it is first-in-class and will have a well-defined therapeutic role, bypassing competition with the fiercely competitive atypical class.
YOUR KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED
How has the schizophrenia market been affected by the influx of generic atypicals?
What will the overall schizophrenia market dynamics be over the next 10 years?
How will sales of the major drug classes in schizophrenia evolve during the forecast period?
What degree of commercial success does Datamonitor forecast for key pipeline drugs?
Which of the seven major markets provides the greatest opportunity for growth?
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Market definition for schizophrenia
Forecast methodology and assumptions
New product launches
MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Current and future market dynamics overview
Consistent growth is expected for the schizophrenia drug market through to 2021
Growth of the antipsychotic depot class will help to restore the schizophrenia market in the medium term
The schizophrenia drug pipeline is projected to deliver a 40% market share by 2021
Later-line therapy offers greater growth potential as first-line therapy becomes the domain of generics
The Abilify depot will take over the mantle from Abilify tablets as the highest selling schizophrenia drug
RG1678 is set to outperform its less innovative pipeline competitors