Assessment of the current and future schizophrenia market using a patient-based forecasting methodology. The analysis is designed to understand the future dynamics of the schizophrenia drug market, with a particular focus on pipeline therapies.
Description
INTRODUCTION
Coming off the end of a large patent cliff, the schizophrenia market is estimated to be worth $5.2bn in the seven major markets in 2012 (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK). Ongoing US price increases and atypical antipsychotic depots will stabilize the market in the medium term, while the fate of novel oral drugs will govern the future direction of the schizophrenia market.
FEATURES AND BENEFITS
Access Datamonitor's patient-based schizophrenia market forecast in the seven major markets, with transparent methodology and clear assumptions.
Evaluate a highly granular forecast with sales value and volume projections to 2021 at the country, class, product, and line of therapy levels.
Understand schizophrenia market dynamics and which factors will lead to commercial success.
Review the products that Datamonitor forecasts to launch over the next 10 years, and how each subsequent launch will shape the market.
HIGHLIGHTS
In the aftermath of recent patent expiries, the oral antipsychotic market with remain flat over 2012-15. However, expansion of the antipsychotic depot class will help the overall schizophrenia market to return to growth, with ongoing uptake of Invega Sustenna and the expected launches of Abilify depot, ALKS 7090, and Fanapt depot.
Abilify is the current highest-selling schizophrenia drug, but with Bristol-Myers Squibb and Otsuka due to lose exclusivity for Abilify from Q4 2014, the Abilify depot will assume the position of market leader. As well as competing with established antipsychotic depots, Abilify depot will benefit from Otsuka's strong Abilify prescriber base.
RG1678 will emerge as the most successful of the late-stage oral pipeline. Whereas the majority of its competitors are relatively undifferentiated from currently available products, RG1678 is unique in that it is first-in-class and will have a well-defined therapeutic role, bypassing competition with the fiercely competitive atypical class.
YOUR KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED
How has the schizophrenia market been affected by the influx of generic atypicals?
What will the overall schizophrenia market dynamics be over the next 10 years?
How will sales of the major drug classes in schizophrenia evolve during the forecast period?
What degree of commercial success does Datamonitor forecast for key pipeline drugs?
Which of the seven major markets provides the greatest opportunity for growth?
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Related reports
MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for schizophrenia
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Methodology flow
Patent expiries
New product launches
MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Current and future market dynamics overview
Consistent growth is expected for the schizophrenia drug market through to 2021
Growth of the antipsychotic depot class will help to restore the schizophrenia market in the medium term
The schizophrenia drug pipeline is projected to deliver a 40% market share by 2021
Later-line therapy offers greater growth potential as first-line therapy becomes the domain of generics
PRODUCT FORECASTS
Product dynamics
The Abilify depot will take over the mantle from Abilify tablets as the highest selling schizophrenia drug
RG1678 is set to outperform its less innovative pipeline competitors
Table: Summary of therapeutic classes in schizophrenia, by ATC code, 2012
Table: Diagnostic criteria for schizophrenia and its subtypes
Table: Estimated patent expiry/generic launch dates for key brands in schizophrenia in the seven major markets, 2011 -21
Table: Estimated launch dates for key late-stage pipeline products and marketed brands in schizophrenia in the seven major markets, 2011-21
Table: Schizophrenia market sales value ($m) and volume (number of patients, thousands) regional dynamics in the seven major markets, 2012-21
Table: Schizophrenia market sales value ($m) and volume (number of patients, thousands) class dynamics in the seven major markets, 2012-21
Table: Schizophrenia market sales value ($m) and volume (number of patients, thousands) dynamics in the seven major markets, by innovator status, 2012-21
Table: Schizophrenia drug sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2012-21
Table: Abilify (aripiprazole; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Table: Saphris/Sycrest (asenapine; Merck & Co./Lundbeck) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country, ($m), 2012-21
Table: Latuda (lurasidone; Dainippon Sumitomo) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Table: Risperdal Consta (risperidone; Johnson & Johnson ) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Table: Invega Sustenna (paliperidone palmitate; Johnson & Johnson) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Table: Abilify depot (aripiprazole; Otsuka/Lundbeck) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Table: Cariprazine (Forest/Gedeon Richter/Mitsubishi Tanabe) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Table: LY2140023 (pomaglumetad methionil; Eli Lilly) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Table: RG1678 (bitopertin; Roche) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Table: Psychiatrists surveyed regarding schizophrenia across the seven major markets, 2012
FIGURES
Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for schizophrenia, 2012
Figure: Schizophrenia market sales value in the seven major markets ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Growth dynamics of the schizophrenia market in the seven major markets, 2012-21
Figure: Schizophrenia drug class sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Schizophrenia drug sales in the seven major markets, by innovator status ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Country-specific market shares of schizophrenia drug sales in the seven major markets, by innovator status (%), 2021
Figure: First- and later-line schizophrenia therapy growth dynamics in the seven major markets, 2012-21
Figure: Growth dynamics in the schizophrenia market in the seven major markets, by line of therapy and drug type, 2012-21
Figure: Abilify (aripiprazole; Bristol-Myers Squibb) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Saphris/Sycrest (asenapine; Merck & Co./Lundbeck) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country, ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Latuda (lurasidone; Dainippon Sumitomo) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Risperdal Consta (risperidone; Johnson & Johnson ) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Invega Sustenna (paliperidone palmitate; Johnson & Johnson) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Abilify depot (aripiprazole; Otsuka/Lundbeck) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Cariprazine (Forest/Gedeon Richter/Mitsubishi Tanabe) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Figure: LY2140023 (pomaglumetad methionil; Eli Lilly) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Figure: RG1678 (bitopertin; Roche) sales forecast for schizophrenia in the seven major markets, by country ($m), 2012-21
Figure: The PharmaVitae Explorer
Market and Product Forecasts: Schizophrenia - The calm after the patent storm published by Datamonitor in July 13, 2012. This report consists of Pages: 47 and the price starts from US $ 11400.
