Market and Product Forecasts: HER2-Negative/Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer - Patent expiries and novel drugs shape the market in the next decade
Market and Product Forecasts: HER2-Negative/Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer - Patent expiries and novel drugs shape the market in the next decade
This report and accompanying deliverable provides forecasts for HER2-/HR+ breast cancer drugs in the seven major markets from 2011-20. Including in-depth analysis of the market in individual countries and molecule dynamics of the key therapies.
Description
INTRODUCTION
The treatment of HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer consists largely of genericized cytotoxic and antihormonal therapies. Avastin (bevacizumab) is currently the only targeted therapy used in this patient population. Patent expiries and the uptake of novel targeted drugs will help shape the market in the next decade, but little change is anticipated in the overall market value.
FEATURES AND BENEFITS
Analysis of HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer drugs in the seven major markets
Patient based sales forecast for drugs in the HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer market from 2011 to 2020
In depth analysis of the factors influencing the HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer drug sales in the seven major markets
Molecule dynamics and assessment of the key HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer drugs in the seven major markets
HIGHLIGHTS
The HER2-/HR+ breast cancer market will experience a modest decrease in sales over the forecast period. The value of the market is forecast to decrease from nearly $5.0bn in 2011 to about $4.7bn in 2020 in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), representing a CAGR of -0.69%.
The patent expiry of Xeloda will have a big impact on the value of the market. Xeloda (capecitabine; Genentech/Roche/Chugai) is forecast to be the highest-selling chemotherapy in the HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer market in 2012, with sales of over $650m in the seven major markets.
Novel targeted therapies will gain a small share of the market. Three novel targeted therapies - Novartis's Afinitor (everolimus), Bayer Schering/Onyx's Nexavar (sorafenib), and Eli Lilly's ramucirumab - are expected to enter the HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer market within the forecast period.
YOUR KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED
Quantify the performance of each of HER2-/HR+ breast cancer drug in the seven major markets by molecule and regimen sales.
Gain insight into the key trends in individual HER2-/HR+ breast cancer markets across the seven major markets.
The report is accompanied by a PowerPoint presentation and Excel deliverable showing full HER2-/HR+ breast cancer forecasts for the US, Japan and 5EU.
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
OVERVIEW
Catalyst
Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Strategic scoping and focus
Datamonitor key findings
Related reports
MARKET DEFINITION
Market definition for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer
Forecast methodology and assumptions
Methodology flow
New product launches
Additional forecast methodology
MARKET OVERVIEW AND CONTEXT
Cancer therapies included in this report
Current and future market dynamics overview
The value of the HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer market will change little over 2011-20
Market value is accumulated in the treatment of early-stage disease and distant relapse
Adjuvant hormonal therapy sales contribute the maximum value to the market
The commercial value of targeted therapies will increase in the forecast period but sales of cytotoxics will decline
The value of the US market will decline slightly over 2011-20
The Japanese market will grow slightly over 2011-20
Sales in the five major EU markets will experience a small decline
PRODUCT FORECASTS
Molecule dynamics
Anastrozole will be the highest grossing molecule in 2012
Avastin (bevacizumab; Genentech/Roche/Chugai)
Ramucirumab (Eli Lilly)
Xeloda (capecitabine; Genentech/Roche/Chugai)
Anastrozole (generic)
Afinitor (everolimus; Novartis)
Nexavar (sorafenib; Bayer Schering/Onyx)
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Websites
Datamonitor reports
APPENDIX
Forecast methodology
Volume and value forecast methodology
Price and compliance assumptions
Report methodology
TABLES
Table: Summary of therapeutic classes in HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer by Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical code, 2012
Table: Estimated launch dates for key late-stage pipeline and marketed products forecast to enter the HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, 2011-20
Table: Drugs included in the HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer market and product forecasts, 2011-20
Table: Forecast number of HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer patients in the seven major markets, by stage of disease, 2012
Table: Forecast molecule sales for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the seven major markets ($m), 2011-20
Table: Forecast chemotherapy regimen sales for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the seven major markets ($m), 2011-20
Table: Forecast hormonal therapy regimen sales for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the seven major markets ($m), 2011-20
Table: Forecast molecule sales in the US for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer ($m), 2011-20
Table: Forecast molecule sales in Japan for HER2- negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer ($m), 2011-20
Table: Forecast molecule sales in the five major EU markets for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer ($m), 2011-20
Table: Key HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer molecule sales in the seven major markets, 2011 and 2020
Table: Avastin sales, by country ($m), 2011-20
Table: Avastin patients, by country, 2011-20
Table: Ramucirumab sales, by country ($m), 2011-20
Table: Ramucirumab patients, by country, 2011-20
Table: Xeloda sales, by country ($m), 2011-20
Table: Xeloda patients, by country, 2011-20
Table: Anastrozole sales, by country ($m), 2011-20
Table: Anastrozole patients, by country, 2011-20
Table: Afinitor sales, by country ($m), 2011-20
Table: Afinitor patients by country, 2011-20
Table: Nexavar sales, by country ($m), 2011-20
Table: Nexavar patients, by country, 2011-20
FIGURES
Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, 2012
Figure: Forecast sales for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the seven major markets, by region ($m), 2011-20
Figure: Forecast sales for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer market in the seven major markets, by stage of disease ($m), 2012
Figure: Forecast number of HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer patients in the seven major markets, by type of therapy, 2012
Figure: Forecast sales for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer in the seven major markets, by type of therapy ($m), 2012
Figure: Forecast sales for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer sales in the seven major markets, by therapy class ($m), 2011-20
Figure: Forecast market share of targeted, cytotoxic, and hormonal therapies in HER2-negative/hormone receptor positive breast cancer in the seven major markets, 2012 and 2020
Figure: Forecast molecule sales in the US for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, by therapy class ($m), 2011-20
Figure: Forecast molecule sales in Japan for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, by therapy class ($m), 2011-20
Figure: Forecast molecule sales in the five major EU markets for HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer, by therapy class ($m), 2011-20
Figure: Key HER2-negative/hormone receptor-positive breast cancer molecule sales, 2011-20
Market and Product Forecasts: HER2-Negative/Hormone Receptor-Positive Breast Cancer - Patent expiries and novel drugs shape the market in the next decade published by Datamonitor in July 19, 2012. This report consists of Pages: 41 and the price starts from US $ 11400.
