The asthma market has seen strong growth, with increased uptake of relatively expensive combination products. This trend is expected to change in the near future as sales growth will slow, and even turn negative, as key products face generic entry. However, by 2021, Datamonitor forecasts a return to positive growth such that the market will maintain value, with a CAGR over 2012-21 of 0.1%.
FEATURES AND BENEFITS
Access Datamonitor's patient-based asthma market forecast for the seven major markets, with transparent methodology and clear assumptions.
Understand how market dynamics are changing and which drug classes will be most impacted in the next 10 years.
Gain insight into how late-stage pipeline products will change the market and which currently marketed products are insulated against brand erosion.
See how generics will impact the asthma market and gain insight into which drug classes are the most vulnerable.
HIGHLIGHTS
Datamonitor forecasts four new product launches in asthma over the next 10 years. New products for asthma across the seven major markets will counteract generic erosion and help the market to maintain value. Datamonitor forecasts the asthma market to increase from $15.0bn in 2012 to $15.1bn by 2021, representing a 2012-21 CAGR of 0.1%.
The impact of generics will vary considerably by drug class. The antileukotriene class is expected to see a rapid decline as Singulair succumbs to generic entry. However, Datamonitor expects a relatively low impact of generics on inhaled combination products, although price discounting and patient switching will vary by country.
While the ICS/LABA class will remain unrivalled as the most profitable in asthma, it will see significant changes. The first ICS/LABA generics are expected to enter the market from 2013. However, greater patient switching is expected from current market leaders to the first once-daily ICS/LABAs, than to generics.
YOUR KEY QUESTIONS ANSWERED
How can generics compete with new product launches in the ICS/LABA class?
How will current market leaders be impacted by additional product launches and which products will resist brand erosion?
How are class dynamics changing in asthma and which drug classes will be the most profitable in 2021?
How do asthma markets differ across the seven major markets and how will these markets react to events over the next 10 years?
Table: Price sources and calculations, by country, 2012
Table: Exchange rates used for calculating prices, 2012
Table: Patent expiry dates for key marketed brands in asthma, by country,
2012
Table: Launch dates for asthma pipeline products, 2012-21
Table: Asthma brand sales in the seven major markets ($m), 2012-21
Table: Datamonitora's price assumptions for Advair, 2012
Table: Advair (fluticasone/salmeterol; GlaxoSmithKline) forecast sales for
asthma in the seven major markets, by device ($m), 2012-21
Table: Datamonitora's price assumptions for Singulair, 2012
Table: Singulair (montelukast; Merck & Co.) forecast sales for asthma in
the seven major markets ($m), 2012-21
Table: Datamonitora's price assumptions for Symbicort
Table: Symbicort (budesonide/formoterol; AstraZeneca) forecast sales for
asthma in the seven major markets ($m), by device, 2012-21
Table: Datamonitora's price assumptions for Dulera, 2012
Table: Dulera (mometasone/formoterol; Merck & Co.) forecast sales for
asthma in the US ($m), 2012-21
Table: Datamonitora's price assumptions for Xolair, 2012
Table: Xolair (omalizumab; Genentech/Roche) forecast sales for asthma in
the seven major markets ($m), 2012-21
Table: Flutiform (fluticasone/formoterol; SkyePharma) forecast sales for
asthma in Japan and the five major EU markets ($m), 2012-21
Table: Relovair (fluticasone furoate/vilanterol; GlaxoSmithKline) forecast
sales for asthma in the seven major markets ($m), 2012-21
Table: QMF149 (mometasone/indacaterol; Novartis) forecast sales for asthma
in Japan and the five major EU markets ($m), 2012-21
Table: Lebrikizumab (Genentech/Roche) forecast sales for asthma in the US
and the five major EU markets ($m), 2012-21
Table: Pulmonologist sample breakdown, 2012
FIGURES
Figure: Patient-based forecast methodology for asthma, 2012
Figure: Asthma sales in the seven major markets, by country ($bn), 2012-21
Figure: Timeline: forecast launch dates for asthma, 2012-21
Figure: Asthma sales in the seven major markets, by product type ($bn),
2012-21
Figure: Asthma sales in the seven major markets, by class ($bn), 2012-21
Figure: Asthma market value in the US ($bn), 2012-21
Figure: Asthma market value in Japan ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Asthma market value in France ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Asthma market value in Germany ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Asthma market value in Italy ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Asthma market value in Spain ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Asthma market value in the UK ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Advair (fluticasone/salmeterol; GlaxoSmithKline) and generic
forecast sales for asthma in the seven major markets, by device ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Advair (fluticasone/salmeterol; GlaxoSmithKline) forecast sales
for asthma in the seven major markets, ($bn), 2012-21
Figure: Singulair (montelukast; Merck & Co.) forecast sales for asthma in
the seven major markets ($bn), 2012-21
Figure: Symbicort (budesonide/formoterol; AstraZeneca) forecast sales for
asthma in the seven major markets ($bn), 2012-21
Figure: Dulera (mometasone/formoterol; Merck & Co.) forecast sales for
asthma in the US ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Xolair (omalizumab; Genentech/Roche) forecast sales for asthma in
the seven major markets ($bn), 2012-21
Figure: Flutiform (fluticasone/formoterol; SkyePharma) forecast sales for
asthma in Japan and the five major EU markets ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Relovair (fluticasone furoate/vilanterol; GlaxoSmithKline)
forecast sales for asthma in the seven major markets ($bn), 2012-21
Figure: QMF149 (mometasone/indacaterol; Novartis) forecast sales for
asthma in Japan and the five major EU markets ($m), 2012-21
Figure: Lebrikizumab (Genentech/Roche) forecast sales for asthma in the US
and the five major EU markets ($m), 2012-21
Market and Product Forecasts: Asthma - Premium products to offset loss to generics published by Datamonitor in September 7, 2012. This report consists of Pages: 70 and the price starts from US $ 11400.
