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Digital TV Western Europe Forecasts

Paying IPTV subscribers will overtake pay satellite TV ones in 2018, according to a new report from Digital TV Research. The Digital TV Western Europe report forecasts that IPTV subscriptions will climb by 7.5 million (38%) between 2013 and 2020 compared with 1.2 million additions for both pay satellite TV (up by 5%) and pay DTT (up 22%). Digital cable will increase by nearly 13 million (up 42%).

Despite a return to more positive market conditions, pay TV subscriptions will only increase by 8.7 million (6.6%) between 2013 and 2020 to 103.65 million. However, the number of digital pay TV subscribers will increase by 28.1% (nearly 23 million), with analog cable subs falling from 14.03 million to zero by 2019.

Western Europe will reach 159 million digital TV households by end-2014, up by 4 million during the year and by 33 million since 2010. This total will grow to 174 million by 2020. Free-to-air DTT will remain the most popular platform - with 44 million primary homes by 2020. FTA satellite TV will supply a further 27 million.

Despite the number of pay TV homes increasing, pay TV revenues will remain flat at around $33 billion. Satellite TV will remain the most lucrative pay TV platform, but its revenues will fall every year from 2011 - despite subs numbers rising. Cable TV revenues peaked in 2012, but will lose $1.3 billion (10.2%) between 2013 and 2020 - although subscriber numbers will also fall (by 2.6%).

Digital cable TV revenues will peak in 2017. IPTV revenues will climb by 26.3% between 2013 and 2020 to $4.91 billion (with subscriber numbers up by 38.4%).

The UK ($7,535 million) will still be the most lucrative pay TV market by 2020. Despite having the most pay TV subscribers by some distance, Germany's pay TV revenues will be a lot lower than the UK - at $4,741 million. In fact, Italy ($4,539 million) will not be too far behind Germany despite having fewer than half its pay TV subscribers.

Published in May 2014, this 200-page electronically-delivered report comes in two parts:

  • A 140-page PDF file providing punchy narrative and succinct analysis in the Executive Summary and a digital TV briefing for 18 countries.
  • An excel workbook providing detailed forecasts from 2010 to 2020 for 18 countries as well as handy comparative tables for the region.
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Iceland
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Luxembourg
  • Malta
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • United Kingdom

Table of Contents

Forecasts (2010-2020) contain the following detail for each country:

SPLIT OF HOUSEHOLDS BY PLATFORM

  • Total households
  • TV households
  • Digital cable subs
  • Analog cable subs
  • Pay IPTV subscribers
  • Pay digital DTH subscribers
  • Digital free DTH households
  • Analog DTH Households
  • Analog terrestrial households
  • Primary FTA DTT households
  • Primary Pay DTT households
  • Total DTT households
  • Digital homes
  • Analog homes
  • Pay TV subscribers

HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION BY PLATFORM

  • Digital cable subs/TV HH %
  • Analog cable subs/TV HH %
  • Pay IPTV subs/TV HH %
  • Pay DTH/TV HH %
  • Digital free DTH/TV HH %
  • Analog DTH/TV HH %
  • Analog terrestrial/TVHH %
  • Primary FTA DTT/TV HH %
  • Primary pay DTT/TV HH %
  • Digital/TV HH %
  • Analog/TV HH %
  • Pay TV Subs/TV HH %
  • TV HH/Total households %
  • Total DTT homes/TVHH

BUNDLING

  • Stand-alone digital cable subs
  • Dual-play digital cable subs
  • Triple-play digital cable subs
  • Stand-alone pay IPTV subs
  • Dual-play pay IPTV subs
  • Triple-play pay IPTV subs
  • Stand-alone digital cable revs
  • Dual-play digital cable TV revenues
  • Triple-play digital cable TV revenues

PAY TV REVENUES

  • Digital cable TV subs revenues
  • Digital cable TV on-demand revs
  • Digital cable TV revenues
  • Analog cable TV subs revs
  • Cable TV revenues
  • Stand-alone IPTV revenues
  • Dual-play IPTV revenues
  • Triple-play IPTV revenues
  • IPTV subscription revenues
  • IPTV on-demand revenues
  • IPTV revenues
  • DTH subscription revenues
  • DTH on-demand revenues
  • DTH revenues
  • DTT subscription revs
  • DTT on-demand revenues
  • DTT revenues
  • Subscription revenues
  • On-demand revenues
  • Total revenues

AVERAGE REVENUE PER USER (US$)

  • Stand-alone digital cable subs
  • Dual-play digital cable TV subs
  • Triple-play digital cable TV subs
  • Average digital cable (subs & VOD)
  • Analog cable TV subs
  • Stand-alone IPARPU TV subs
  • Dual-play IPTV subs
  • Triple-play IPTV subs
  • Average IPTV (subs and VOD)
  • Pay DTH (subs)
  • Pay DTH (subs and PPV)
  • Pay DTT (subs)
  • Pay DTT (subs and PPV)
  • Average monthly ARPU
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