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Global Satellite TV Forecasts

The number of pay satellite TV [DBS or DTH] homes will reach 265 million by 2020, up from 203 million at end-2014 and 143 million at end-2010, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.

Covering 138 countries, the Global Satellite TV Forecasts report estimates that India will continue to lead the sector, with 66.9 million pay satellite TV subs in 2020, followed by the US with 34.1 million. Russia (18.5 million) and Brazil (15.3 million) will take third and fourth places respectively. These four countries will account for just over half the global total by 2020.

From the 61.6 million pay satellite TV subscribers to be added between 2014 and 2020, India will provide 23.5 million, Indonesia 5.0 million, Brazil 3.4 million and Russia 2.7 million. The pay satellite TV subs total will more than double in 41 countries. However, pay satellite TV subscriber totals will fall in 17 countries between 2014 and 2020 as subs convert to other platforms.

Pay satellite TV penetration reached 13.1% of TV households at end-2014, and will climb to 15.6% by 2020. Penetration will exceed 25% of TV households in 27 countries by 2020, up from 11 in 2010.

Global satellite TV revenues will reach $94.8 billion in 2020, up from $88.4 billion in 2014 and $71.8 billion in 2010. Satellite TV revenues will overtake total cable TV revenues in 2015.

Asia Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa will show strong satellite TV revenue growth. However, revenues will fall in Western Europe and North America. The US will remain satellite TV market leader by revenues, although its share of the global total will fall from 44.8% in 2014 ($39.6 billion) to 41.3% in 2020 ($39.2 billion). Brazil will be second in revenue terms by 2020 ($6.8 billion); having overtaken the UK in 2013.

India will add the most satellite TV revenues ($2.5 billion, moving from tenth to fifth place) between 2014 and 2020, with Nigeria increasing by $437 million and Indonesia $414 million. Revenues will more than double in 41 countries.

However, revenues will fall in Canada by $805 million, the US by $421 million and France $232 million. Revenues will fall or be flat in 38 countries. Much of this is due to greater competition forcing satellite TV platforms to offer cheaper packages which will lead to lower ARPUs. Furthermore, low-cost satellite TV packages are making a significant impact in several countries.

Published in May 2015, this 274-page electronically-delivered report comes in two parts:

  • An 102-page PDF giving a global Executive Summary and regional and country analysis (Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America, Middle East & North Africa, North America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Western Europe, Summary and comparison forecasts, satellite TV country forecasts).
  • An excel workbook providing satellite TV forecasts from 2010 to 2020 for 138 countries as well as handy comparison tables.
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