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Market Research Report - 202139

World LNG Market Forecast 2016-2020

Published by Douglas-Westwood
Published Content info 87 Pages
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World LNG Market Forecast 2016-2020
Published: October 21, 2015 Content info: 87 Pages
Description

A Shift in Focus for the Global LNG Business

Capital expenditure (Capex) on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities has risen substantially in recent years, due mainly to the growth in the global economy which has been driving demand for natural gas. This trend is expected to continue with total spending on global LNG facilities expected to reach $241bn between 2016 and 2020. This represents a 34% increase compared to the preceding five-year period.

Global LNG Capex has been dominated by Australasia and Asia in recent years, however, over the forecast period all regions are expected to experience positive growth, except for Australasia where the LNG construction boom looks to be coming to an end, as the country prepares to enter a new production phase. The US now has vast potential as an LNG exporter. However, the approval process for onshore projects remains slow and will limit the growth rate of LNG expenditure in the region over 2016-2020. In the US there are 20 LNG export terminals proposed for the future. Of this 20 proposed, 11 export terminals were originally planned for start-up between 2016 and 2020. However, DW has taken a conservative view and anticipates only six will be built over this period. DW expects North America to become a significant market player by the end of the forecast period.

The global LNG Capex outlook to 2020 is characterised by this regional change in focus, in addition to a weaker projected year for expenditure in 2016. This is a result of a pause in commitments to new LNG projects as demand growth in Asia has weakened and gas prices have slumped.

By far the largest proportion of the total spend will be attributed to liquefaction projects, where the gas is cooled and condensed to a much smaller size. Worldwide spending in this segment is forecast to total $160bn over the next five years, an increase of 33% over the hindcast period total.

The World LNG Market Forecast 2016-2020 examines trends in the LNG market by region and facility type, supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation. Areas of focus include:

  • Drivers & indicators - a review of the factors influencing the LNG market, including growing global energy demand; environmental concerns and sustainable energy; oil & gas prices; majors' production profiles; E&P costs, local content and geopolitics; drilling & production; diversification of supply and unconventionals.
  • Overview of the LNG industry - the LNG chain, major players, contracting practices, spot cargoes and current pricing.
  • Supply & demand - outlook, trade flows, future pricing, applications, regional gas & LNG markets and unconventional gas: threat or a feedstock for LNG?
  • Supply chain & contractors - EPC contractor market share analysis, construction, liquefaction technology market and regasification.
  • Transportation - LNG carrier fleet and vessel owners, designs for containment systems & propulsion; plus a review of shipyards and shipbuilding.
  • Offshore LNG - liquefaction and regasification terminals.
  • Regional analysis - comprehensive examination, analysis and ten-year view of the market, with historic data covering the period 2011-2015 and forecast data for 2016-2020. Capital expenditure by facility type (carrier, import and liquefaction) and region. Liquefaction market in terms of Capex and/or capacity (new and cumulative) by region, new developments and expansion projects, components and work scopes. LNG carrier market in terms of expenditure and newbuild units by region. Import market in terms of Capex and/or capacity by region, new developments and expansion projects, components and work scopes.

Why purchase the World LNG Market Forecast?

DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is essential for design engineering houses, engineering, procurement and construction contractors, technology providers, shipping companies, LNG vessel owners, shipbuilders, oil & gas operators, gas utilities, financial institutions and government agencies & departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

  • Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
  • Detailed methodology - the report uses research from DW's proprietary ‘World LNG Projects Database', an in-house information system exclusive to DW. Our global analyst team is involved in the gathering and analysis of the LNG market data through primary research and professional networks. A project-by-project review of development prospects drives a data-rich market model and forecast; with the timing of expenditure phased to reflect the commercial structures of likely projects.
  • Market forecasts - comprehensive examination and analysis of LNG expenditure.
  • Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all of our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Summary and Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Macro Drivers & Economic Overview

  • Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand
  • From Black to Green
  • Sustainable Energy
  • Natural Gas
  • Oil & Gas Majors - Emerging Company Trends
  • Oil & Gas Challenges
  • Oil Price Volatility
  • Drilling and Production Outlook
  • Offshore Oil & Gas
  • Diversification of Supply
  • Unconventional Oil & Gas

3. The LNG Industry

  • The LNG Chain
  • LNG Contracting Practices
  • Short-term Trade

4. LNG Supply and Demand

  • Gas Demand & Supply
  • Regional Gas and LNG Markets
  • Gas Supply: Australian Projects in Progress
  • Gas Supply: Huge Conventional Resources Remain Untapped
  • LNG Supply Outlook
  • Unconventional Gas: Threat to LNG
  • Unconventional Gas: A Feedstock for LNG
  • LNG Demand Outlook
  • Applications for LNG: Drivers
  • Applications for LNG: Transportation Fuel
  • Future Outlook for LNG Prices

5. Supply Chain and Contractors

  • The LNG Supply Chain
  • EPC Contractor: Market Share Analysis
  • LNG Construction
  • LNG Liquefaction
  • Liquefaction Technology Market
  • LNG Regasification

6. LNG Transportation

  • LNG Carriers
  • LNG Vessel Owners & Analysis
  • LNG Carrier Designs: Containment System
  • LNG Carrier Designs: Containment & Propulsion
  • Shipyard Analysis

7. Offshore LNG

  • Offshore Receiving & Liquefaction
  • Offshore Receiving & Liquefaction Terminals

8. Market Forecast

  • Methodology
  • The Global LNG Capex by Facility Type
  • The Global LNG Market by Region
  • Liquefaction Terminals
  • Liquefaction Terminals - New Developments v Expansion Projects
  • Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Total Liquefaction Capacity
  • LNG Carriers
  • LNG Import Terminals
  • Import Terminals - New Developments vs. Expansion Projects
  • Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Australasia
  • Eastern Europe & FSU
  • Latin America
  • Middle East
  • North America
  • Western Europe

9. Appendix

  • Prospects, Statuses & Conversion Tables
  • Import Prospects
  • Liquefaction Prospects
  • Carrier Prospects
  • Data and Text Conventions

Figures

  • Figure 1: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2011-2020
  • Figure 2: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2011-2020
  • Figure 3: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand 1965-2035
  • Figure 4: OECD and Non-OECD Energy Intensity, 1980-2015
  • Figure 5: The Changing Energy Mix 1980-2015
  • Figure 6: Energy Demand Forecast by Fuel Type, 1990-2040
  • Figure 7: Renewable Energy Capacity, 2000-2014
  • Figure 8: Offshore Wind Capacity Additions Forecast, 2015-2024
  • Figure 9: Primary Energy Consumption, 2014
  • Figure 10: Levelised Cost of Energy ($/MWh) in 2020
  • Figure 11: Natural Gas Prices ($/mmBtu), 2000-2020
  • Figure 13: Majors' Gas Production Index
  • Figure 14: Majors' Oil Production Index
  • Figure 12: Control of Oil & Gas Reserves, 2013
  • Figure 15: Oil & Gas Production versus E&P Spend, 2000-2015
  • Figure 16: Skilled Workers by Age Category, 2014
  • Figure 17: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2010-July 2015
  • Figure 18: Brent Annual Average Short-term Spot Price Forecasts, 2010 - 2017
  • Figure 19: Global Oil and Gas Production Forecast by Region, 2005-2021
  • Figure 20: Global Oil and Gas Wells Drilled Forecast by Region, 2005-2021
  • Figure 21: Onshore/Offshore Production Split
  • Figure 22: Onshore vs Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2005-2021
  • Figure 23: Global Deepwater Capex by Region, 2010-2019
  • Figure 24: Sources of European Gas Supply
  • Figure 25: Sources of Chinese Gas Supply
  • Figure 26: Global Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources
  • Figure 27: US Oil Petroleum and other liquid fuels supply by source
  • Figure 28: Process Diagram of the LNG chain
  • Figure 29: Typical LNG Business Models
  • Figure 30: Tolling Agreement Model
  • Figure 31: Spot & Short-Term LNG Trade
  • Figure 32: World LNG Estimated Prices
  • Figure 33: Global Gas Production
  • Figure 34: Natural Gas Major Trade Movements 2014
  • Figure 35: Australian Projects in Progress
  • Figure 36: LNG Export Capacity by Country and by Region
  • Figure 37: US Unconventional Gas Production & LNG Imports
  • Figure 38: China Unconventional Natural Gas Production
  • Figure 39: Australian CBM Production
  • Figure 40: US Shale and Tight Gas Production
  • Figure 41: LNG Demand Outlook
  • Figure 42: Permissible Sulphur Content Emission Caps
  • Figure 43: Emission Controlled Areas
  • Figure 44: LNG Supply and Demand 2000-2019
  • Figure 45: Historic Gas Prices 2000-2013
  • Figure 46: LNG Supply Chain
  • Figure 47: Contractor Market Share (by project mmtpa) of Installed Liquefaction Facilities
  • Figure 49: LNG Construction Process Flow
  • Figure 48: EPC Cost for Liquefaction Terminals 2000-2020
  • Figure 50: Propane Pre-Cooled Dual Mixed Refrigerant Process
  • Figure 51: Market Share of Liquefaction Technology installed in respective periods
  • Figure 52: LNG Import Terminal Schematic
  • Figure 53: Submerged Combustion Vapouriser (Closed Loop)
  • Figure 54: Development of the LNG Carrier Fleet
  • Figure 55: Annual Average LNGC Spot Rates 2000-2015
  • Figure 56: LNG Carrier Fleet by Class
  • Figure 57: Vessel Owners & Fleet Specifications
  • Figure 58: Current Fleet by Containment System
  • Figure 59: Membrane System Tank
  • Figure 60: Typical Moss Layout
  • Figure 61: SPB System
  • Figure 62: Operational Fleet Propulsion System
  • Figure 63: Orderbook (2015-2017) Propulsion System
  • Figure 64: Shipyard Analysis
  • Figure 65: LNG Carrier Orders by Shipyard and Country of Build 2001-2015
  • Figure 66: Average Vessel Cost for 135,000 - 165,000m3 Capacity Carriers
  • Figure 67: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Indicative Terminal Total Costs
  • Figure 68: Floating LNG Projects
  • Figure 69: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2011-2020
  • Figure 70: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2011-2020
  • Figure 71: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region
  • Figure 72: Capex on LNG Liquefaction Terminals by Region 2011-2020
  • Figure 73: Liquefaction Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Figure 74: Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Figure 75: Expenditure on LNG Carriers in Asia 2011-2020
  • Figure 76: Capex on LNG Import Terminals by Region 2011-2020
  • Figure 77: Import Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Figure 78: Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Figure 79: Capex on LNG Facilities in Africa by type 2011-2020
  • Figure 80: Capex on LNG Facilities in Asia by type 2011-2020
  • Figure 81: Capex on LNG Facilities in Australasia by type 2011-2020
  • Figure 82: Capex on LNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by type 2011-2020
  • Figure 83: Capex on LNG Facilities in Latin America by type 2011-2020
  • Figure 84: Capex on LNG Facilities in Middle East by type 2011-2020
  • Figure 85: Capex on LNG Facilities in North America by type 2011-2020
  • Figure 86: Capex on LNG Facilities in Western Europe by type 2011-2020

Tables

  • Table 1: Carrier Propulsion Systems
  • Table 2: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2016-2020
  • Table 3: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2015-2020
  • Table 4: Capex on LNG Liquefaction Terminals by Region 2015-2020
  • Table 5: LNG Liquefaction Capacity Coming Onstream 2015-2020
  • Table 6: Liquefaction Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Table 7: Liquefaction Capacity - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Table 8: Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Table 9: Cumulative Liquefaction Capacity Forecast 2015-2020
  • Table 10: Expenditure on LNG Carriers by Shipbuilder Region 2015-2020
  • Table 11: No. of Newbuilds by Shipbuilder Region 2015-2020
  • Table 12: Capex on LNG Import Terminals by Region 2015-2020
  • Table 13: LNG Import Capacity Coming Onstream 2015-2020
  • Table 14: Import Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Table 15: Import Capacity - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Table 16: Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Table 17: Capex on LNG Facilities in Africa by type 2015-2020
  • Table 18: Capex on LNG Facilities in Asia by type 2015-2020
  • Table 19: Capex on LNG Facilities in Australasia by type 2015-2020
  • Table 20: Capex on LNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by type 2015-2020
  • Table 21: Capex on LNG Facilities in Latin America by type 2015-2020
  • Table 22: Capex on LNG Facilities in Middle East by type 2015-2020
  • Table 23: Capex on LNG Facilities in North America by type 2015-2020
  • Table 24: Capex on LNG Facilities in Western Europe by type 2015-2020
  • Table 25: Conversion Tables
  • Table 26: Import Prospects
  • Table 27: Liquefaction Prospects
  • Table 28: Carrier Prospects
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