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World LNG Market Forecast 2015-2019

Liquefaction terminals to dominate LNG capital expenditure

Capital expenditure (Capex) on global LNG facilities is expected to total $259 billion (bn) over the period 2015-2019, with investments expected to be 88% larger than the previous five years following a slowdown in 2009 through to 2012 as a result of the global recession.

Liquefaction terminals will form two-thirds of total Capex, a 90% growth compared to the last five years. Import terminal expenditure is forecast to make up a quarter of total global expenditure, a 112% increase, with LNG carrier expenditure accounting for 9%.

Global LNG Capex has been dominated by Australasia and Asia in recent years, however, over the forecast period all regions are expected to experience positive growth, except for Australasia and the Middle East. With its ambitious plans to export LNG, we can expect North America to become a significant market player in the forecast period.

In the next five years we can also expect increasing participation of Chinese shipyards in the LNG shipbuilding sector. General confidence in the market and a robust line-up of LNG terminals point towards a healthy LNG carrier shipbuilding industry. The observed increase in average price of carriers and increase in carrier capacities are expected to continue in the forecast period.

The World LNG Market Forecast 2015-2019 details trends by region and facility type, supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation and includes:

  • An overview of the industry - the LNG chain, major players, contracting practices, spot cargoes and pricing.
  • Supply & demand - outlook, pricing, applications, regional gas & LNG markets and unconventional gas: threat or a feedstock for LNG?
  • Supply chain and contractors - EPC contractor market share analysis, construction, liquefaction technology market and regasification.
  • Transportation - LNG carriers, their design and containment systems & propulsion; plus a review of shipyards.
  • Offshore LNG - liquefaction and receiving terminals and regasification.
  • Market forecasts - comprehensive examination, analysis and ten-year view of the market, with historic data covering the period 2010-2014 and forecast data for 2015- 2019. Capital expenditure by facility type (export, carrier, and import) and region.

Why purchase the World LNG Market Forecast?

DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is essential for shipping companies, contractors, shipbuilders, oil & gas operators, gas utilities and financial institutions and government agencies & departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

  • Unique and proprietary data - detailed by project in our in-house databases. Updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
  • Detailed methodology - exclusive to DW, the database drives a market model used to develop the forecasts. Based on a project-by-project review of development prospects, with the timing of expenditure phased to reflect projects' likely financial structure.
  • Comprehensive analysis - by region and facility type.
  • Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.


Table of Contents

1. Summary and Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Macro Drivers & Economic Overview

  • Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand
  • From Black to Green
  • Sustainable Energy
  • Drilling and Production Outlook
  • Oil & Gas Majors - Emerging Company Trends
  • Natural Gas
  • Offshore Oil & Gas
  • Unconventional Oil & Gas
  • Oil & Gas Challenges

3. The LNG Industry

  • The LNG Chain
  • LNG Contracting Practices
  • Short Term Trade

4. LNG Demand and Supply

  • Gas Demand & Supply
  • Regional Gas and LNG Markets
  • Gas Supply: Australian Projects in Progress
  • LNG Supply Outlook
  • Unconventional Gas: Threat to LNG
  • Unconventional Gas: A Feedstock for LNG
  • LNG Demand Outlook
  • Applications for LNG: Drivers
  • Applications for LNG: Transportation Fuel
  • Future Outlook for LNG Prices

5. Supply Chain and Contractors

  • The LNG Supply Chain
  • EPC Contractor: Market Share Analysis
  • LNG Construction
  • LNG Liquefaction
  • Liquefaction Technology Market
  • LNG Regasification

6. LNG Transportation

  • LNG Carriers
  • LNG Vessel Owners & Analysis
  • LNG Carrier Designs: Containment System
  • LNG Carrier Designs: Containment & Propulsion
  • Shipyard Analysis

7. LNG Transportation

  • Offshore Receiving & Liquefaction
  • Offshore Receiving & Liquefaction Terminals

8. Market Forecast

  • Methodology
  • The Global LNG Capex by Facility Type
  • The Global LNG Market by Region
  • Liquefaction Terminals
  • Liquefaction Terminals - New Developments v Expansion Projects
  • Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Total Liquefaction Capacity
  • LNG Carriers
  • LNG Import Terminals
  • Import Terminals - New Developments v Expansion Projects
  • Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Figures
  • Figure 1: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2008-2017
  • Figure 2: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2008-2017
  • Figure 3: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2012
  • Figure 4: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region
  • Figure 5: The Changing Energy Mix
  • Figure 6: Electricity Generation by Fuel Type
  • Figure 7: Renewable Energy Capacity
  • Figure 8: Offshore Wind Capacity Additions, 2013-2022
  • Figure 9: Primary Energy Consumption, 2013
  • Figure 10: Global Hydrocarbon Production
  • Figure 11: Global Development Wells Drilled
  • Figure 12: Offshore/Onshore Production
  • Figure 13: Majors' Gas Production Index
  • Figure 14: Majors' Oil Production Index
  • Figure 15: Control of Oil & Gas Reserves
  • Figure 16: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/MWh)
  • Figure 17: Natural Gas Prices ($/mbtu)
  • Figure 18: Global Oil & Gas Production 2000-2020
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Australasia
  • Eastern Europe & FSU
  • Latin America
  • Middle East
  • North America
  • Western Europe

9. Appendix

  • Prospects, Statuses & Conversion Tables
  • Import Prospects
  • Liquefaction Prospects
  • Carrier Prospects
  • Data and Text Conventions

Figures

  • Figure 19: Global Deepwater Capex by Region 2009-2018
  • Figure 20: Global Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources
  • Figure 21: US Oil Petroleum and other liquid fuels supply by source
  • Figure 22: Oil & Gas Production versus E&P Spend
  • Figure 23: 69% of Workers Are Over the Age of 40
  • Figure 24: Process Diagram of the LNG chain
  • Figure 25: Typical LNG Business Models
  • Figure 26: Tolling Agreement Model
  • Figure 27: Spot & Short-Term LNG Trade
  • Figure 28: Global Gas Production
  • Figure 29: Natural Gas Major Trade Movements 2013
  • Figure 30: Australian Projects in Progress
  • Figure 31: LNG Export Capacity by Country and by Region
  • Figure 32: US Unconventional Gas Production & LNG Imports
  • Figure 33: China Unconventional Natural Gas Production
  • Figure 34: Australian CBM production
  • Figure 35: US Shale and Tight Gas production
  • Figure 36: LNG Demand Outlook
  • Figure 37: Starting capacity by New Importers of LNG
  • Figure 38: Permissible Sulphur Content Emission Caps
  • Figure 39: Emission Controlled Areas
  • Figure 40: LNG Supply and Demand 2000-2019
  • Figure 41: Historic Gas Prices 2000-2013
  • Figure 42: LNG Supply Chain
  • Figure 43: Contractor Market Share (by project mmtpa) of Installed Liquefaction Facilities
  • Figure 45: LNG Construction Process Flow
  • Figure 44: EPC Cost for Liquefaction Terminals 2000-2019
  • Figure 46: Propane Pre-Cooled Dual Mixed Refrigerant Process
  • Figure 47: Market Share of Liquefaction Technology installed in respective periods
  • Figure 48: LNG Import Terminal Schematic
  • Figure 49: Submerged Combustion Vapouriser (Closed Loop)
  • Figure 50: Development of the LNG Carrier Fleet
  • Figure 51: Annual Average LNGC Spot Rates 2000-2013
  • Figure 52: LNG Carrier Fleet by Class
  • Figure 53: Vessel Owners & Fleet Specifications
  • Figure 54: Current Fleet by Containment System
  • Figure 55: Membrane System Tank
  • Figure 56: Typical Moss Layout
  • Figure 57: SPB System
  • Figure 58: Operational Fleet Propulsion System
  • Figure 59: Orderbook (2015-2017) Propulsion System
  • Figure 60: LNG Carrier Orders by Shipyard and Country of Build 2000-2014
  • Figure 61: Average Vessel Cost for 135,000 - 165,000m3 Capacity Carriers
  • Figure 62: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Indicative Terminal Total Costs
  • Figure 63: Floating LNG Projects
  • Figure 64: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2010-2019
  • Figure 65: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2010-2019
  • Figure 66: Capex on LNG Liquefaction Terminals by Region 2015-2019
  • Figure 67: Liquefaction Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Figure 68: Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Figure 69: Cumulative Liquefaction Capacity Installed and Forecast 2010-2019
  • Figure 70: Expenditure on LNG Carriers in Asia 2010-2019
  • Figure 71: Capex on LNG Import Terminals by Region 2010-2019
  • Figure 72: Import Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Figure 73: Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Figure 74: Capex on LNG Facilities in Africa by type 2010-2019
  • Figure 75: Capex on LNG Facilities in Asia by type 2010-2019
  • Figure 76: Capex on LNG Facilities in Australasia by type 2010-2019
  • Figure 77: Capex on LNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by type 2010-2019
  • Figure 78: Capex on LNG Facilities in Latin America by type 2010-2019
  • Figure 79: Capex on LNG Facilities in Middle East by type 2010-2019
  • Figure 80: Capex on LNG Facilities in North America by type 2010-2019
  • Figure 81: Capex on LNG Facilities in Western Europe by type 2010-2019

Tables

  • Table 1: Carrier Propulsion Systems
  • Table 2: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2015-2019
  • Table 3: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 4: Capex on LNG Liquefaction Terminals by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 5: LNG Liquefaction Capacity Coming Onstream 2014-2019
  • Table 6: Liquefaction Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Table 7: Liquefaction Capacity - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Table 8: Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Table 9: Cumulative Liquefaction Capacity Forecast 2014-2019
  • Table 10: Expenditure on LNG Carriers by Shipbuilder Region 2014-2019
  • Table 11: No. of Newbuilds by Shipbuilder Region 2014-2019
  • Table 12: Capex on LNG Import Terminals by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 13: LNG Import Capacity Coming Onstream 2014-2019
  • Table 14: Import Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Table 15: Import Capacity - New Developments and Expansion Projects
  • Table 16: Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
  • Table 17: Capex on LNG Facilities in Africa by type 2014-2019
  • Table 18: Capex on LNG Facilities in Asia by type 2014-2019
  • Table 19: Capex on LNG Facilities in Australasia by type 2014-2019
  • Table 20: Capex on LNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by type 2014-2019
  • Table 21: Capex on LNG Facilities in Latin America by type 2014-2019
  • Table 22: Capex on LNG Facilities in Middle East by type 2014-2019
  • Table 23: Capex on LNG Facilities in North America by type 2014-2019
  • Table 24: Capex on LNG Facilities in Western Europe by type 2014-2019
  • Table 25: Conversion Tables
  • Table 26: Import Prospects
  • Table 27: Liquefaction Prospects
  • Table 28: Carrier Prospects
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