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Market Research Report - 208640

World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020

Published by Douglas-Westwood
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World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020
Published: September 25, 2015 Content info: Pages
Description

Protracted Supply Overhang & a Gradual Recovery in Subsea Vessel Operations Spend

The recent volatility of hydrocarbon prices, coupled with excessive newbuilding programmes will result in low utilisation impacting day rates and overall expenditure over the forecast period. However, with eventual recovery at the end of the forecast period, subsea vessel day demand is set to grow at a 5.2% CAGR over the next five years. Global subsea vessel operations expenditure is expected to increase by 29% when compared to the preceding five-year period, totalling $97.7 billion (bn) from 2016 to 2020.

North America, Africa and Latin America are expected to account for 47.5% of global expenditure between 2016 and 2020. The “golden triangle” remains vital to subsea vessel demand over the forecast period despite falling oil prices, project delays and political instability associated with Africa. The development of East African gas basins in the Indian Ocean will contribute to subsea vessel demand in the latter years of the forecast period.

Asia will be the single largest market with anticipated 18.7% of expenditure over the next five years, largely driven by shallow water inspection repair & maintenance (IRM) and pipelay-related activities.

Australasia has the fastest growth rate of all of the regions at a 46.8% CAGR due to massive offshore gas field developments required to support its ambitious LNG export commitments. Activity in the Middle East will represent 9% of the total global subsea vessel expenditure.

Field development (36%) and IRM (40%) will remain the principal drivers of global subsea vessel demand and expenditure. As production in shallow water basins declines, activities in deeper water are set to increase as deepwater development becomes inevitable. However, operators will continue to invest in the optimisation of existing shallow water fields.

The ‘World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast 2016-2020’ analyses the main factors driving demand for MSV, DSV, Flexlay, LWIV and Pipelay vessels, supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation and includes:

Drivers & indicators - a review of factors influencing subsea markets, including; growing global energy demand; continued development of offshore reserves; oil & gas prices; field complexity, technology and cost evolution; the role of deepwater and how all of these drivers impact the subsea vessel operations market.

  • Vessel fleet supply side analysis - global vessel supply trends for DSVs, MSVs, Flexlays, Pipelays and LWIVs with historic vessel deliveries from 1960-2015 and current vessel supply and orderbook segmented by vessel type and owner.
  • Regional analysis - expenditure and vessel day demand by market with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America, Norway, UK and Rest of Western Europe.

Why purchase the World Subsea Vessel Operations Market Forecast?

DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is essential for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, offshore engineering, construction, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, drilling operators, oil & gas companies and government agencies & departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

  • Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
  • Detailed methodology - the report uses a unique market model specifically developed in collaboration with leading subsea industry participants. Based on the DW's proprietary databases covering vessels and offshore oil and gas developments, the report includes a market forecast with analysis based on unique data.
  • Comprehensive analysis - expenditure and vessel day demand are segmented by field development, IRM, pipeline and subsea intervention for each region, covering the 2011-2020 period.
  • Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Summary and Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Drivers and Indicators

  • Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand
  • Evolution of Offshore E&P Industry
  • Subsea Focus Areas
  • Oil - Supply & Demand
  • Oil Price Volatility
  • Natural Gas
  • Oil & Gas Challenges

3. Definitions and Terminology

  • Offshore Field Lifecycle and Subsea Vessels
  • Vessel Types
  • Vessel Definitions
  • Vessel Definitions
  • Activity by Vessel Type

4. The Vessel Fleet

  • Global Vessel Supply
  • DSVs - Supply Side Market Trends
  • MSVs - Supply Side Market Trends
  • Flexlays - Supply Side Market Trends
  • Pipelays - Supply Side Market Trends
  • LWIVs - Supply Side Market Trends
  • Day Rate Analysis

5. The Subsea Vessel Market Forecast

  • Model Summary
  • Global Market - by Region
  • Global Market - by Sector
  • Africa - Market Overview & Drivers
  • Africa - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Asia - Market Overview & Drivers
  • Asia - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Australasia - Market Overview & Drivers
  • Australasia - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Eastern Europe & FSU - Market Overview & Drivers
  • Eastern Europe & FSU - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Latin America - Market Overview & Drivers
  • Latin America - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Middle East - Market Overview & Drivers
  • Middle East - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • North America - Market Overview & Drivers
  • North America - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Norway - Market Overview & Drivers
  • Norway - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • UK - Market Overview & Drivers
  • UK - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • RoWE - Market Overview & Drivers
  • RoWE - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure

6. Appendix

  • Data and Text Conventions

Figures

  • Figure 1: Global Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region 2011-2020
  • Figure 2: Global Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Sector 2011-2020
  • Figure 3: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035
  • Figure 4: OECD and Non-OECD Energy Intensity, 1980-2015e
  • Figure 5: Onshore vs Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2005-2021
  • Figure 6: Development Wells by Water Depth (1960-2020)
  • Figure 7: Subsea Focus Areas
  • Figure 8: Oil Price & Demand 1990-2015
  • Figure 9: World Liquids Production Growth 2005-2015
  • Figure 10: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2010 - July 2015
  • Figure 11: Brent Annual Average Spot Price Forecasts 2010-2017
  • Figure 12: Levellised Cost of Energy ($/MWh) in 2020
  • Figure 13: Natural Gas Prices ($/mmBtu), 2000-2020
  • Figure 14: Oil & Gas Production versus E&P Spend 2000-2015e
  • Figure 15: Skilled Workers by Age Category 2014
  • Figure 16: Historic Vessel Deliveries by Type 1960-2015
  • Figure 17: Active Global Fleet by Type
  • Figure 18: Book to Fleet by Vessel Type
  • Figure 19: 2015 Dayrate Range
  • Figure 20: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region
  • Figure 21: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Sector
  • Figure 22: Global Expenditure by Sector
  • Figure 23: Africa - Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)
  • Figure 24: Africa - Expenditure by Market and Vessel Day Demand
  • Figure 25: Asia - Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)
  • Figure 26: Asia - Expenditure by Market and Vessel Day Demand
  • Figure 27: Australasia - Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)
  • Figure 28: Australasia - Expenditure by Market and Vessel Day Demand
  • Figure 29: Eastern Europe & FSU - Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)
  • Figure 30: Eastern Europe & FSU - Expenditure by Market and Vessel Day Demand
  • Figure 31: Latin America - Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)
  • Figure 32: Latin America - Expenditure by Market and Vessel Day Demand
  • Figure 33: Middle East - Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)
  • Figure 34: Middle East - Expenditure by Market and Vessel Day Demand
  • Figure 35: North America - Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)
  • Figure 36: North America - Expenditure by Market and Vessel Day Demand
  • Figure 37: Norway - Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)
  • Figure 38: UK - Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)
  • Figure 39: UK - Expenditure by Market and Vessel Day Demand
  • Figure 40: RoWE - Subsea Tree Installations by Water Depth (metres)
  • Figure 41: RoWE - Expenditure by Market and Vessel Day Demand

Tables

  • Table 1: Vessel Type Definitions
  • Table 2: LWIV Definitions
  • Table 3: Vessel Activity by Vessel Type
  • Table 4: Vessel Summaries by Type
  • Table 5: DSV Leading Vessel Owner 2015
  • Table 6: MSV Leading Vessel Owner 2015
  • Table 7: Flexlay Leading Vessel Owner 2015
  • Table 8: Pipelay Leading Vessel Owner 2015
  • Table 9: LWIV Leading Vessel Owner 2015
  • Table 10: Global Vessel Operations Expenditure by Region
  • Table 11: Global Expenditure by Sector
  • Table 12: Africa - Key Infrastructure
  • Table 13: Africa - Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market
  • Table 14: Asia - Key Infrastructure
  • Table 15: Asia - Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market
  • Table 16: Australasia - Key Infrastructure
  • Table 17: Australasia - Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market
  • Table 18: Eastern Europe & FSU - Key Infrastructure
  • Table 19: Eastern Europe & FSU - Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market
  • Table 20: Latin America - Key Infrastructure
  • Table 21: Latin America - Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market
  • Table 22: Middle East - Key Infrastructure
  • Table 23: Middle East - Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market
  • Table 24: North America - Key Infrastructure
  • Table 25: North America - Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market
  • Table 26: Norway - Key Infrastructure
  • Table 27: Norway - Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market
  • Table 28: UK - Key Infrastructure
  • Table 29: UK - Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market
  • Table 30: RoWE - Key Infrastructure
  • Table 31: RoWE - Expenditure & Vessel Day Demand by Market
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