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World Floating Production Market Forecast 2015-2019

Floating production deployment spend to total $81 billion 2015-2019 but orders in decline

Douglas-Westwood's new World Floating Production Market Forecast 2015-2019 forecasts that despite the current low oil price environment, between 2015 and 2019 $81 billion (bn) will be spent on FPS units - an increase of 73% compared to 2010-2014. The value of annual installations is projected to grow from nearly $12bn in 2015 to $21bn in 2017 before declining to $17bn in 2019. Projects already ordered will account for much of this spend.

Despite Capex growth, the outlook this year for orders is poor. The low oil price is expected to impact the market, leading to a number of delayed project sanctions. This can be seen in the declining number of orders for 2015 and subsequent installation decline in 2018. Projects already under construction are unlikely to be affected.

FPSOs represent by far the largest segment of the market both in numbers (87 installations) and forecast Capex (81%) during 2015-2019. TLPs account for the second largest segment of Capex (9%) with FPSSs third (7%).

Latin America will see nearly a third of the 110 installations forecast and 32% of the projected Capex. Asia accounts for nearly a quarter of forecast installations, but only 13% of spend. Africa is important in value terms, with 22% of the projected Capex. Western Europe is expected to form 15% of forecast spend. Deepwater expenditure will make up 68% of the global FPS market.

Financing remains a challenge for leasing contractors and smaller E&P companies as a result of the lower oil prices. Low oil prices have placed additional strain on company budgets and greater efforts are being made to ensure delays and cost over-runs are avoided. Local content requirements are also pushing up prices and extending lead times, particularly in Brazil.

The World Floating Production Market Forecast 2015-2019 report is now in its 13th Edition and is supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation and includes:

  • Drivers & indicators - a review of factors influencing the floating production market including global energy demand; continued development of offshore reserves; oil & gas prices, supply & demand; Brazilian activity, the role of deepwater.
  • Operator analysis - Capex for the leading FPS operators, historic, forecast and by region and water depth.
  • The FPS Supply Chain - detailed analysis of the FPS supply chain, outlining the EPC firms, ship-yards, lease contractors, topside fabricators and their respective capabilities.
  • Leasing & Financing - the issues and future outlook for financing of the sector; analysis of major leasing contractors, their assets and a review of prospective vessel redeployments.
  • Regional analysis - with trend commentary for Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe

Why purchase the World Floating Production Market Forecast?

DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is essential for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, offshore engineering, construction, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, oil & gas companies, lease contractors, shipbuilders and agencies & government departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

  • Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
  • Detailed methodology - analysis is based on DW's in-house Oil & Gas database which details around 700 FPS projects. The data feeds into the market model to generate forecasts of floating production systems in each region of the world. Expenditure is allocated both to year of order and year of installation
  • Comprehensive analysis - comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year coverage of floating production capital expenditure.
  • Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.


Table of Contents

1. Summary and Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Macro Economic Overview

  • Global Energy Demand Drivers: Population & GDP Growth
  • From Black to Green
  • Oil - Supply & Demand
  • Oil Majors - End of Business as Usual?
  • The Move to Offshore Oil & Gas
  • The Move to Deepwater
  • Oil & Gas Challenges
  • Brazilian Activity

3. FPS Types and Applications

  • Offshore Production Platforms
  • The FPS Lifecycle
  • FPS Concept Selection
  • Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Vessels (FPSOs)
  • Types of FPSO
  • Floating Production Semi-Submersibles (FPSS)
  • Types of FPSS
  • Spars
  • Types of Spars
  • Tension Leg Platforms (TLPs)
  • Types of TLP
  • Types of Floating Production Systems - Summary
  • FPS Applications

4. Leasing and Financing

  • Financing
  • FPS Leasing
  • Major Leasing Contractors
  • Redeployments of Leased Units

5. The FPS Supply Chain

  • The FPS Supply Chain
  • Contractor Overview
  • FPS Shipyards & Construction Facilities
  • Local Content - FPS Construction

6. FPS Components

  • Hulls
  • Topsides
  • Mooring Systems
  • Critical Path Equipment Lead Times
  • Riser Systems

7. Transportation, Installation & Commissioning

  • Transportation, Installation & Commissioning
  • Spar Installation

8. FPS Fleet

  • The FPS Fleet
  • Fleet Analysis: Operator & Water Depth Distributions

9. Market Forecast

  • Market Forecast
  • Delays to Sanctioning & Commissioning
  • The Global FPS Market by Region
  • The Global FPS Market by Vessel Type
  • FPSOs
  • FPSO Capex Breakdown
  • FPSSs
  • FPSS Capex Breakdown
  • Spars
  • Spar Capex Breakdown
  • TLPs
  • TLP Capex Breakdown
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Australasia
  • Latin America
  • Middle East
  • North America
  • Western Europe
  • Operator Analysis
  • The Deepwater FPS Market

10. Appendix

  • Floating Production Prospects
  • Data and Text Conventions

Figures

  • Figure 1: Global FPS Capex by Region 2010-2019
  • Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand 1965-2012
  • Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region
  • Figure 4: The Changing Energy Mix
  • Figure 5: Climate Change (Temperature Change)
  • Figure 6: Oil Price & Demand
  • Figure 7: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2014
  • Figure 8: Oil Discoveries & Production
  • Figure 9: Control of Oil Reserves
  • Figure 10: Global Oil Supply - Onshore/Offshore 1965-2020
  • Figure 11: Global Deepwater Capex by Region 2009-2018
  • Figure 12: Subsea Completed Wells by Water Depth
  • Figure 13: Oil & Gas Production vs E&P Spend
  • Figure 14: Skilled Workers Age Category
  • Figure 15: Brazillian Offshore Basins
  • Figure 16: The FPS Lifecycle
  • Figure 17: Completion Strategy and FPS Concept Selection
  • Figure 18: Typical Layout of an FPSO
  • Figure 20: Typical Layout of an FPSS (Deep Draft)
  • Figure 19: Typical Pontoon Arrangements
  • Figure 21: Typical Layout of a Spar (Truss)
  • Figure 22: Typical Layout of a TLP (Dry-tree)
  • Figure 23: Typical Lending Cycles in the Offshore Sector
  • Figure 24: Major Leasing Contractors
  • Figure 25: Leased Units on Contract by Region
  • Figure 26: Major Leasing Contractors' Vessels Available for Redeployment (2015-2019)
  • Figure 27: The FPS Supply Chain
  • Figure 28: Major Shipbuilding Countries
  • Figure 29: Typical Layout of Topside Modules
  • Figure 30: Spar Installation
  • Figure 31: Global FPS Fleet
  • Figure 32: Operator Distribution of FPS Fleet
  • Figure 33: Water Depth Distribution of FPS Fleet by Region
  • Figure 34: Global FPS Installation Capex by Region 2010-2019
  • Figure 35: Global FPS Installation Capex by Vessel Type 2010-2019
  • Figure 36: FPSO Capex by Region 2010-2019
  • Figure 37: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2010-2019
  • Figure 38: FPSS Capex by Region 2010-2019
  • Figure 39: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2010-2019
  • Figure 40: Spar Capex by Region 2010-2019
  • Figure 41: Spar Capex by Component Type 2010-2019
  • Figure 42: TLP Capex by Region 2010-2019
  • Figure 43: TLP Capex by Component Type 2010-2019
  • Figure 44: FPS Capex - Africa 2010-2019
  • Figure 45: FPS Capex - Asia 2010-2019
  • Figure 46: FPS Capex - Australasia 2010-2019
  • Figure 47: FPS Capex - Latin America 2010-2019
  • Figure 48: FPS Capex - Middke East 2010-2019
  • Figure 49: FPS Capex - North America 2010-2019
  • Figure 50: FPS Capex - Western Europe 2010-2019
  • Figure 51: Leading FPS Operators Capex 2010-2019
  • Figure 52: Leading FPS Operators 2015-2019 by Region
  • Figure 53: Deepwater FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2010-2019
  • Figure 54: Deepwater FPS Capex by Region 2010-2019

Tables

  • Table 1: Majors' Oil Production
  • Table 2: Track Record of Project Installation (Excluding Extended Well Tests)
  • Table 3: Major Leasing Contractors & Their Units
  • Table 4: FPS Competitive Landscape (list not exhaustive)
  • Table 5: Typical Mooring System Designs by FPS Type
  • Table 6: Nine FPSO projects with delays
  • Table 7: Global FPS Capex by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 8: Global FPS Installations by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 9: Global FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2014-2019
  • Table 10: Global FPS Installations by Vessel Type 2014-2019
  • Table 11: FPSO Capex by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 12: FPSO Installations by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 13: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2014-2019
  • Table 14: FPSS Capex by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 15: FPSS Installations by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 16: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2014-2019
  • Table 17: Spar Capex by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 18: Spar Installations by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 19: Spar Capex by Component Type 2014-2019
  • Table 20: TLP Capex by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 21: TLP Installations by Region 2014-2019
  • Table 22: TLP Capex by Component Type 2014-2019
  • Table 23: FPS Capex - Africa 2014-2019
  • Table 24: FPS Installations - Africa 2014-2019
  • Table 25: FPS Capex - Asia 2014-2019
  • Table 26: FPS Installations - Asia 2014-2019
  • Table 27: FPS Capex - Australasia 2014-2019
  • Table 28: FPS Installations - Australasia 2014-2019
  • Table 29: FPS Capex - Latin America 2014-2019
  • Table 30: FPS Installations - Latin America 2014-2019
  • Table 31: FPS Capex - Middle East 2014-2019
  • Table 32: FPS Installations - Middle East 2014-2019
  • Table 33: FPS Capex - North America 2014-2019
  • Table 34: FPS Installations - North America 2014-2019
  • Table 35: FPS Capex - Western Europe 2014-2019
  • Table 36: FPS Installations - Western Europe 2014-2019
  • Table 37: Leading FPS Operators 2014-2019
  • Table 38: Deepwater FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2014-2019
  • Table 39: Deepwater FPS Capex by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 40: Floating Production Prospects 2015-2019
Show More
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