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The World Floating Production Market Forecast 2014-2018

Floating Production Deployments set for Significant Increase in 2014

Douglas-Westwood's NEW World Floating Production Market Report forecasts that between 2014 and 2018 $99 billion (bn) will be spent on floating production systems (FPS) - an increase of 138% over the preceding five-year period. The long-term growth in the sector is underpinned by the continued exploitation of deep waters, marginal fields and fast-track/short term deployments. Deepwater FPS deployments are expected to total $68bn in value and account for over two-thirds of the total spend.

FPSOs form the largest segment of the market (80%) both in terms of units installed and forecast capital expenditure (Capex) over the 2014-2018 period. Latin America accounts for 29% of the 139 installations forecast and 38% of the projected Capex.

The FPS sector recovery following the 2008/2009 downturn continues steadily. A total of 54 units were ordered in 2011-2013 compared to 23 units ordered during 2008-2009. There has been little growth in the annual value of installed units over the last four years; however, 2014 is expected to show a significant increase in the value of units deployed.

The industry is, however, still coming to terms with a number of demand-side and supply-side issues. The failure of Brazilian operator OGX in 2013 and the slow-down in overall upstream expenditure in 2014 will impact the market in the near-term. Likewise the industry's record in terms of project execution has been poor, with most projects delivered late and significantly over-budget. Some industry players are now suggesting a new approach is required.

Now in its 12th edition, this highly regarded and established report has been tracking and analysing the industry for over a decade. Douglas-Westwood's market analysis, commentary and understanding are strengthened by extensive insight gained from strategy and consultancy work undertaken for major companies throughout the industry.

  • Capex - from 2009 to 2018, segmented by components including hull, topside modules and mooring systems.
  • FPS type - FPSOs, FPSSs, TLPs and Spars.
  • Regional analysis - Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.
  • Operator analysis - Capex for the leading FPS operators historic, forecast and by region.
  • Deepwater - by FPS type and region.
  • Order year analysis - Capex by order year.
  • The FPS Supply Chain - detailed analysis of the FPS supply chain, outlining the EPC firms, shipyards, lease contractors, topside fabricators and their respective capabilities.
  • Leasing & Financing - the issues and future outlook for financing of the sector; analysis of major leasing contractors, their assets, profitability (EBIT margins) and a review of prospective vessel redeployments.
  • List of prospective FPS units - includes information on all identified prospects coming onstream from 2014 to 2018 by operator, field, water depth, type, status, country and prospective year.

Why purchase the Floating Production Market Forecast?

  • Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
  • Methodology - analysis is based on DW's in-house Oil & Gas database which details around 700 FPS projects. The data feeds into the market model to generate forecasts of floating production systems in each region of the world. Expenditure is allocated both to year of order and year of installation.
  • Market forecasts - comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year coverage of floating production capital expenditure.
  • Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
  • An essential report - for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, offshore engineering, construction, operations & maintenance companies and contractors, oil & gas companies, lease contractors, shipbuilders and agencies & government departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Table of Contents

1. Summary and Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Macro Economic Overview

  • Global Energy Demand Drivers: Population & GDP Growth
  • A Changing Energy Mix
  • Oil Supply & Demand
  • Oil Majors - End of Business as Usual?
  • The Move to Offshore Oil & Gas
  • The Move to Deepwater
  • Oil & Gas Challenges
  • Brazilian Activity

3. FPS Types and Applications

  • Offshore Production Platforms
  • The FPS Lifecycle
  • FPS Concept Selection
  • Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Vessels (FPSOs)
  • Types of FPSO
  • Floating Production Semi-Submersibles (FPSS)
  • Types of FPSS
  • Spars
  • Types of Spars
  • Tension Leg Platforms (TLPs)
  • Types of TLP
  • Types of Floating Production Systems - Summary
  • FPS Applications

4. Leasing and Financing

  • Financing
  • FPS Leasing
  • Major Leasing Contractors
  • Redeployments of Leased Units
  • EBIT Margin

5. The FPS Supply Chain

  • The FPS Supply Chain
  • Contractor Overview
  • FPS Shipyards & Construction Facilities
  • Local Content - FPS Construction

6. FPS Components

  • Hulls
  • Topsides
  • Mooring Systems
  • Riser Systems

7. Transportation, Installation & Commissioning

  • Transportation, Installation & Commissioning
  • Spar Installation

8. FPS Fleet

  • The FPS Fleet
  • Fleet Analysis: Operator & Water Depth Distributions

9. Market Forecast

  • Market Forecast
  • Delays to Sanctioning & Commissioning
  • The Global FPS Market by Region
  • The Global FPS Market by Vessel Type
  • FPSOs
  • FPSO Component Capex
  • FPSSs
  • FPSS Component Capex
  • Spars
  • Spar Component Capex
  • TLPs
  • TLP Component Capex
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Australasia
  • Latin America
  • Middle East
  • North America
  • Western Europe
  • Operator Analysis
  • The Deepwater FPS Market

10. Appendix

  • Floating Production Prospects
  • Data and Text Conventions

Figures

  • Figure 1: Global FPS Capex by Region 2009-2018
  • Figure 2: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand 1965-2012
  • Figure 3: Historic Primary Energy Demand by Region
  • Figure 4: The Changing Energy Mix
  • Figure 5: Oil Price & Demand
  • Figure 6: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2013
  • Figure 7: Oil Discoveries & Production
  • Figure 8: Control of Oil Reserves
  • Figure 9: Global Oil Supply - Onshore/Offshore 1965-2020
  • Figure 10: Subsea Completed Wells by Water Depth
  • Figure 11: Oil & Gas Production v E&P Spend
  • Figure 12: Oil & Gas Worker Ages
  • Figure 13: Brazillian Offshore Basins
  • Figure 14: Track Record of Project Installation (Excluding Extended Well Tests)
  • Figure 15: The FPS Lifecycle
  • Figure 16: Completion Strategy and FPS Concept Selection
  • Figure 17: Typical Layout of an FPSO
  • Figure 19: Typical Layout of an FPSS (Deep Draft)
  • Figure 18: Typical Pontoon Arrangements
  • Figure 20: Typical Layout of a Spar (Truss)
  • Figure 21: Typical Layout of a TLP (Dry-tree)
  • Figure 22: Typical Lending Cycles in the Offshore Sector
  • Figure 23: Major Leasing Contractors (January 2014)
  • Figure 24: Leased Units on Contract by Region (January 2014)
  • Figure 25: Major Leasing Contractors' Redeployment Candidates
  • Figure 26: EBIT Margins for Top 5 Leasing Contractors
  • Figure 27: The FPS Supply Chain
  • Figure 28: Major Shipbuilding Countries 2009-2013
  • Figure 29: Typical Layout of Topside Modules
  • Figure 30: Spar Installation
  • Figure 31: Global FPS Fleet
  • Figure 32: Operator Distribution of FPS Fleet
  • Figure 33: Water Depth Distribution of FPS Fleet by Region
  • Figure 34: Global FPS Installation Capex by Region 2009-2018
  • Figure 35: Global FPS Installation Capex by Vessel Type 2009-2018
  • Figure 36: FPSO Capex by Region 2009-2018
  • Figure 37: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2009-2018
  • Figure 38: FPSS Capex by Region 2009-2018
  • Figure 39: FPSS Capex by Component Type 2009-2018
  • Figure 40: Spar Capex by Region 2009-2018
  • Figure 41: Spar Capex by Component Type 2009-2018
  • Figure 42: TLP Capex by Region 2009-2018
  • Figure 43: TLP Capex by Component Type 2009-2018
  • Figure 44: FPS Capex - Africa 2009-2018
  • Figure 45: FPS Capex - Asia 2009-2018
  • Figure 46: FPS Capex - Australasia 2009-2018
  • Figure 47: FPS Capex - Latin America 2009-2018
  • Figure 48: FPS Capex - Middle East 2009-2018
  • Figure 49: FPS Capex - North America 2009-2018
  • Figure 50: FPS Capex - Western Europe 2009-2018
  • Figure 51: Leading FPS Operators Capex 2009-2018
  • Figure 52: Leading FPS Operators 2014-2018 by Region
  • Figure 53: Deepwater FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2009-2018
  • Figure 54: Deepwater FPS Capex by Region 2009-2018

Tables

  • Table 1: Majors' Oil Production
  • Table 2: Major Leasing Contractors & Their Units
  • Table 3: FPS Competitive Landscape
  • Table 4: Typical Mooring System Designs by FPS Type
  • Table 5: Delays to Sanctioning and Construction for Units Installed 2010-2012
  • Table 6: : Global FPS Capex by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 7: Global FPS Installations by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 8: Global FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2013-2018
  • Table 9: Global FPS Installations by Vessel Type 2013-2018
  • Table 10: FPSO Capex by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 11: FPSO Installations by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 12: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2013-2018
  • Table 13: FPSS Capex by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 14: FPSS Installations by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 15: FPSS Capex by Component Type 2013-2018
  • Table 16: Spar Capex by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 17: Spar Installations by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 18: Spar Capex by Component Type 2013-2018
  • Table 19: TLP Capex by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 20: TLP Installations by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 21: TLP Capex by Component Type 2013-2018
  • Table 22: FPS Capex - Africa 2013-2018
  • Table 23: FPS Installations - Africa 2013-2018
  • Table 24: FPS Capex - Asia 2013-2018
  • Table 25: FPS Installations - Asia 2013-2018
  • Table 26: FPS Capex - Australasia 2013-2018
  • Table 27: FPS Installations - Australasia 2013-2018
  • Table 28: FPS Capex - Latin America 2013-2018
  • Table 29: FPS Installations - Latin America 2013-2018
  • Table 30: FPS Capex - Middle East 2013-2018
  • Table 31: FPS Installations - Middle East 2013-2018
  • Table 32: FPS Capex - North America 2013-2018
  • Table 33: FPS Installations - North America 2013-2018
  • Table 34: FPS Capex - Western Europe 2013-2018
  • Table 35: FPS Installations - Western Europe 2013-2018
  • Table 36: Leading FPS Operators 2013-2018
  • Table 37: Deepwater FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2013-2018
  • Table 38: Deepwater FPS Capex by Region 2013-2018
  • Table 39: Floating Production Prospects 2014-2018
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