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World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021

Notes

Our market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

Floating LNG industry set for landmark project start-ups and further new wave of growth

Despite a current pause in commitments to new projects, the capital expenditure (Capex) for FLNG vessels is expected to amount to $35.5bn over 2015-2021. Spending on FSRUs will total $22.8bn over the same period, taking the combined expenditure for the Floating LNG market to $58.3bn.

There is a huge interest in the pioneering projects that will drive market spend over the coming years. Future commitments by operators to the FLNG market hinges on the success of these pioneering projects.

The delivery of Petronas' PFLNG 1, also known as the PFLNG SATU, will be the world's first FLNG vessel to start operations on its completion by the end of 2016. This will be followed by Shell's Prelude FLNG vessel, a significantly larger project and one that is likely to shape future FLNG developments. Construction of the 488 metres long facility started in 2012 (the unit is being built by Samsung in Korea) and is expected to start up by 2017.

Following these projects is a second wave of new projects that are yet to be sanctioned but are expected to drive a growth in expenditure from 2019 onwards. This includes major projects in frontier regions such as East Africa.

DW anticipates more floating regasification units are to be sanctioned, with Asia and Latin America being the dominant regions. Upcoming projects are visible in Indonesia, China, Pakistan, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, mostly led by National Oil Companies. Latin America will see deployments of floating regas units in Chile and Puerto Rico.

The ‘World FLNG Market Forecast 2015-2021’ forecasts activity through to 2021 and contains analysis of:

  • Market Drivers and Trends - including the monetisation of stranded gas reserves, security of supply, onshore terminal costs, environmental solutions and increasing long-term gas demand.
  • The FLNG Supply Chain - operators, FLNG leasing, EPC contractors, vessel yards, topside sub-contractors and financing analysis.
  • FLNG Import and Export Capacity - prospective installations 2015-2021, along with DW's forecast for the required Capex to bring this capacity online. This includes construction of base-load FLNG liquefaction and import (regasification) vessels.
  • Capex Breakdowns - expenditure for liquefaction and regasification vessels segmented by component looking at topsides, hull & containment systems and mooring & transfer systems. And by service, including technology licencing, FEED, detailed design engineering, construction engineering, installation, hook-up & commissioning and construction of hull & topsides.
  • Regional analysis - Africa, Asia, Australasia, Eastern Europe & FSU, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe.

Why purchase the FLNG Market Forecast?

Our market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms. Our proven process includes:

  • Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
  • Methodology - the report uses research from DW's proprietary ‘World LNG Projects Database’, an in-house information system exclusive to DW. Our global analyst team is involved in the gathering and analysis of FLNG market data through primary research and professional networks. A project-by-project review of development prospects drives a data-rich market model and forecast; with the timing of expenditure phased to reflect the commercial structures of likely projects.
  • Market forecasts - comprehensive examination, analysis and 14-year coverage of FLNG expenditure.
  • Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
  • An essential report - for engineering houses, contractors, shipping companies, vessel lease operators, shipbuilders, oil & gas operators, gas utilities and financial institutions wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.

Table of Contents

1. Summary and Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Why Floating LNG?

  • Floating Liquefaction - Market Drivers
  • Onshore & FLNG Comparison & Definitions
  • Floating Liquefaction - Onshore Cost Comparison
  • The History of Floating LNG
  • Floating Regasification - Market Drivers

3. Floating Liquefaction

  • Hulls
  • LNG FPSO
  • Containment Systems
  • LNG FPSO Process Diagram
  • Liquefaction Plant Process Flow
  • Liquefaction Technology
  • Offloading to Regasification Vessels

4. Floating Regasification

  • FSRU & Regasification Vessels
  • Topsides & Regasification Process
  • Destination LNG Offloading

5. FLNG Supply Chain

  • LNG FPSO Supply Chain: Pre-FEED/FEED
  • LNG FPSO Supply Chain: EPC
  • Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain
  • Financing
  • LNG Business Model
  • Shipyard Review
  • Leasing Contractors - Floating Liquefaction
  • Leasing Contractors - Floating Regasification

6. FLNG Projects

  • Oil Price Impact on FLNG Projects
  • Floating Regasification
  • Floating Liquefaction Projects
  • Pioneer FLNG Projects

7. Market Forecast

  • Methodology

8. Appendix

  • Conversion Tables
  • Prospective Floating Regasification Vessels
  • Data and Text Conventions

Figures

  • Figure 1: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2014-2020
  • Figure 2: Percentage Regional Comparison on FLNG 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Top 10 countries with Proven Natural Gas Reserves (as at end 2013)
  • Figure 4: Process Diagram of the LNG chain
  • Figure 5: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Indicative Terminal Total Costs
  • Figure 6: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex
  • Figure 7: LNG Capital Costs
  • Figure 8: History of Floating LNG
  • Figure 9: Overview of Operational and Future LNG Facilities
  • Figure 10: Gas Consumption by Region 2005-2030
  • Figure 11: LNG FPSO Layout
  • Figure 12: Sloshing Inside a Tank
  • Figure 13: LNG Facility Liquefaction Process Flow
  • Figure 14: Single Train Capacity for Several Liquefaction Process
  • Figure 15: FSRU Topside Process
  • Figure 16: Submerged Combustion Vaporiser (Closed Loop)
  • Figure 17: Schematic of the Sea Water Vaporiser (Open-loop)
  • Figure 18: LNG FPSO Pre-FEED & FEED Supply Chain
  • Figure 19: LNG FPSO EPC Supply Chain
  • Figure 20: Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain
  • Figure 21: Typical Finance Project Structure
  • Figure 22: LNG FPSO Simplified Business Model
  • Figure 23: Henry Hub Gas, West Texas Intermediate FOB & Europe Brent Spot Prices
  • Figure 24: Global Floating Regasification Fleet
  • Figure 25: Focus areas for FLNG export project development
  • Figure 26: Shell Prelude FLNG
  • Figure 27: Petronas PFLNG 1
  • Figure 28: Columbia FLSRU
  • Figure 29: Components of an FLNG vessel
  • Figure 30: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2008-2021
  • Figure 31: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2008-2021
  • Figure 32: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2008-2021
  • Figure 33: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2008-2021
  • Figure 34: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2008-2021
  • Figure 35: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2008-2021
  • Figure 36: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Component 2008-2021
  • Figure 37: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Service 2008-2021
  • Figure 38: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2008-2021
  • Figure 39: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2014-2021
  • Figure 40: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2014-2021
  • Figure 41: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2014-2021
  • Figure 42: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021
  • Figure 43: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Country of Service 2014-2021
  • Figure 44: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2014-2021
  • Figure 45: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021
  • Figure 46: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2014-2021
  • Figure 47: Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America by Type 2014-2021
  • Figure 48: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2014-2021

Tables

  • Table 1: Conventional FPSO Components
  • Table 2: Typical Natural Gas Composition
  • Table 3: Floating Liquefaction Lease Contractors and Operators
  • Table 4: Floating LNG Projects by Status and Year
  • Table 5: Prelude, PFLNG and FLSRU Vessel Details
  • Table 6: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2014-2021
  • Table 7: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2014-2021
  • Table 8: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2014-2021
  • Table 9: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2014-2021
  • Table 10: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2014-2021
  • Table 11: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2014-2021
  • Table 12: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Component 2014-2021
  • Table 13: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Service 2014-2021
  • Table 14: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2014-2021
  • Table 15: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2014-2021
  • Table 16: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2014-2021
  • Table 17: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2014-2021
  • Table 18: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2014-2021
  • Table 19: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Country of Service 2014-2021
  • Table 20: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2014-2021
  • Table 21: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2014-2021
  • Table 22: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2014-2021
  • Table 23: Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America by Type 2014-2021
  • Table 24: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2014-2021
  • Table 25: Conversion Table
  • Table 26: Prospective Floating Regasification Vessels
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