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Market Research Report
GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL MARKETS AND STRATEGIES, 2009-2020
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GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL MARKETS AND STRATEGIES, 2009-2020 published by Emerging Energy Research in May, 2009. This report price starts from US $ 3750.
Abstract
Geothermal energy, popular during the 1970' s oil crisis, is now experiencing a
resurgence. Driven by RPS demand and carbon policies, there has been a recent
surge globally in geothermal pipeline development activity. The US market
leads the way with over 4,400 MW of geothermal plants in the pipeline, out of
a total geothermal pipeline approaching 9,000 MW globally. Improving
technologies such as low temperature plants are driving down costs and could
lead to much shorter development timelines, while Enhanced Geothermal System
developments could pave the way for the industry' s longer term growth.
A new study from EER, Global Geothermal Markets and Strategies, 2009 - 2020,
is a critical resource to help guide you through the global geothermal market
landscape. What is the potential for geothermal and when will specific
geothermal markets take - off? Which utilities and geothermal - IPPs are
leading the way and which are looking to enter? Where are the opportunities
and who is bestpositioned to capitalize? Following are just a few of the key
trends addressed in EER' s new geothermal study:
- Led by California and Nevada, Western US leads the charge: 120 geothermal
projects are under development in 12 Western States. 190 million acres of BLM
land and U.S. Forest Service lands were open to geothermal development as of
year - end 2008. Southeast Asia, with an estimated 40,000 MW of geothermal
potential and led by the Philippines and Indonesia, is attracting developers
from around the world.
- As major utilities and IPPs compete for global renewable market share,
geothermal becomes an attractive option: Enel and MidAmerican lead utilities
in the global geothermal market. Geothermal - IPPs such as Ormat and Geyser
Green are on the front of the development curve. Oil and gas players such as
Chevron are renewing their focus.
- Renewable policies drive geothermal growth: With pushback on coal plants,
geothermal offers an attractive emissions' free baseload power source. As
carbon prices escalate, geothermal is a low cost alternative to other
renewable options. In the US, the changing regulatory policies - RPS, PTC and
ITC incentives - will help to extend geothermal' s cost advantage.
STUDY HIGHLIGHTS
Geothermal Market Drivers and Project Hurdles
- US Renewable Portfolio Standards, Investment Tax Credit, Production Tax
Credit
- EU Feed - In Tariffs
- Carbon Policy and CDM
- Financial Market Impact
- BLM, Transmission
- Exploration Risks and Opportunities
Geothermal Market Forecasts to 2020
- Traditional Markets: United States, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan,
Iceland, Italy
- Emerging Markets: New Zealand, Chile, Argentina, Turkey, Mexico
- Nascent Markets: Australia, East Africa, Russia, Canada
Strategy Profiles
- Utilities and IPPs
- Geothermal Developers
- Oil and Gas Companies
- Turbine Manufacturers
- Drillers
Cost Analysis
- Geothermal Capital Costs
- Drilling Costs
- O&M
- Cost Drivers and Renewable Cost Comparisons
Competitive Analysis
- Value Chain Evolution
- Competitive Positioning of Geothermal Developers
- Conventional and Low - temperature Turbine Analysis
Geothermal Rankings
- Power Plant Ownership Rankings
- Project Development Rankings
Technology Comparison
- Enhanced Geothermal Systems/Hot Rock
- Low Temperature
- Drilling Advancements
- Flash vs Binary Systems
Table of Contents
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. GLOBAL RESOURCE AND POLICY DRIVERS
- 1. Global Geothermal Market Environment
- " Proven Technology in New Energy Landscape
- " Baseload Renewable Power
- " Geothermal Cost Drivers vs. Wind, Other Renewables
- 2. Overview of Global Geothermal Resource
- " Geothermal Resource Classification
- " Regional Hydrothermal Resource Comparison
- North America
- Europe, Iceland, and Russia
- Asia Pacific
- Caribbean and Latin America
- Africa
- 3. Renewable Policies Support Geothermal Growth
- " US Policy Shifts
- Federal Stimulus Funding to Broaden
- Geothermal Cost Advantage
- RPS Implications for Geothermal Power Demand
- Other US Government Geothermal Incentives
- " Increasing EU Renewables Obligations Bring Geothermal into the Fold
- Renewables Policy Goals Drive Interest
- Despite Modest Resources
- EU FITs Underpin Short - Term Activity
- " Geothermal Support Policies in the Rest of the World
- Australia Positions EGS as Key to Renewable Policy Goal
- Asia Reignites Geothermal Activity with Renewables Policies
- RPSs Make Strides to Spur Geothermal in Mexico, Latin America
- " International Programs Boost Geothermal
- CDM Supports Geothermal Activity
- World Bank to Lift Geothermal Activity
III. GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGY AND COST TRENDS
- 1. Plant Technology and Competitiveness
- " Dry Steam Technology
- " Flash Systems
- Single - Flash vs. Dual - Flash Systems
- Combined Cycle Systems Gain Attention
- " Binary Systems
- Proven ORC Leads the Way
- Kalina Cycle Technology Looks to Evolve
- " Hot Dry Rock/Enhanced Geothermal Systems
- " Other Technology Directions
- 2. Evolution of Drilling Techniques
- 3. Geothermal Project Development Challenges
- Exploration Risks and Opportunities
- Dry Well Insurance
- Adverse Environmental Challenges
- Development Timelines
- 4. Geothermal Costs and Trends
- " Geothermal Production Costs
- Project Capital Costs
- Trends in Drilling Costs
- EGS Costs
- " Geothermal Compared to Other Renewables
IV. GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL MARKET ANALYSIS, 2009 - 2020
- 1. Geothermal Market Development Trends
- " Development Status of Global Geothermal Pipeline
- " Trends in Project Scale
- 2. US to Lead Global Geothermal Development Activity
- " Geothermal Development Activity in Western US
- California and Nevada Lead Development Charge
- Other States Attract Developers as RPS
- Demand Broadens
- Coal Plant Pushback Drives Geothermal
- Growth into New Western States
- " Addressing Development Bottlenecks
- BLM Critical to Expediting Growth Potential
- Transmission Build - Out Key to Long - Term Growth
- 3. Global Project Review
- " Traditional Geothermal Markets
- Developers Weigh Large Potential, High Risk in Indonesia
- The Philippines to Encourage Steady Growth
- Iceland Taps Resources as Domestic Industry Matures
- Italy Repowers and Begins to Expand Activity
- Japan Re - ignites Activity
- Mexico, CFE Tenders Face Ups and Downs
- " Emerging Growth Markets
- New Zealand Poised for Substantial Growth
- Chile to Lead South American Geothermal Growth Forward
- Geothermal Market Awakens in Turkey
- " Nascent High Resource Markets
- Central American Markets Hold Long - Term Potential
- East Africa Gains Attention
- Russia Steps Up Renewables Goals with Growth for Geothermal
- The Caribbean
- Papua New Guinea Taps into Geothermal Resources
- Despite High Resources, Canadian
- Geothermal Takes Backseat to Alternatives
- 4. Deep Resource Geothermal Market Activity
- " Germany Looks to Spur Central European Growth Potential
- " Australia
- " France Pioneers EGS in Other Markets, But Growth Limited to Overseas
Departments
- " Long - Term US Outlook
- 5. Geothermal Market Forecast
- " Global Geothermal Market Methodology
- " Global Geothermal Market Forecast Scenarios
- " Geothermal Market Forecasts by Country
- US Leads Global Geothermal Growth
- Southeast Asia Key Region for Geothermal Growth
- Geothermal Growth in the Rest of the World
- " Geothermal Technology Forecast
- " Geothermal Investment Forecast
V. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS: GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
- 1. Global Value Chain Evolution
- " Evolution of Geothermal Power Development
- " Emerging Pure - Play Developers and IPPs Redefining Geothermal Value
Chain
- " Resource Focus Defines Strategies of Emerging Players
- 2. Competitive Positioning Within Geothermal Power Industry
- " Geothermal Market Share Rankings
- Geothermal Power Plant Ownership Rankings
- Geothermal Project Pipeline Comparison
- " Global Development Trends
- US Gets Competitive as New Pure - Play
- Developers Emerge
- Outside the US, Larger Integrated Players
- Seek Opportunities
- 3. Geothermal Development Strategies
- " Pure - Play Developer Strategies
- Ormat Leads the Industry Forward
- Emerging Pure - Plays Accelerate US Geothermal Development
- Raser Seeks to Differentiate Itself
- Geysir Green Energy a Catalyst for Global Expansion
- Small EGS Players Attract Attention from Big Industry
- " Geothermal Portfolio Strategies
- Renewables Leaders Explore Geothermal Expansion
- Enel Steps Up International Focus Across the Atlantic with Acquisitions
- Mid - American Leads US Utilities, Stays at Home for Now
- IPPs Move Into Geothermal with Baseload Strategies
- EU Utilities Reshape Fragmented Low - Temp/EGS Development Market
- " Oil and Gas Strategies in Geothermal
- Chevron Stands Apart from Other Supermajors
- Integrated Energy Production Strategies Explored
- 4. Geothermal Financing Challenges
- " Financial Crisis Shakes Up Development Environment
- 5. Strategy Profiles: Pure - Play Developers, Geo - IPPs
- " AltaRock Energy Inc.
- AltaRock Energy Geothermal
- Development Strategy
- " Esmeralda Energy
- Esmeralda Energy Geothermal
- Development Strategy
- " Exorka Geothermal
- Exorka Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Geodynamics
- Geodynamics Geothermal Development Activity
- " Geysir Green Energy
- Geysir Green Energy Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Hitaveita Sudurnesja (HS Orka)
- Hitaveita Sudurnesja Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Iceland America Energy
- Iceland America Energy Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Magma Energy Corp.
- Magma Energy Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Nevada Geothermal Power
- Nevada Geothermal Power Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Ormat
- Ormat Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Panax Geothermal
- Panax Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Petratherm
- Petratherm Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Polaris Geothermal
- Polaris Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Ram Power
- Ram Power Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Raser Technologies Inc.
- Raser Technologies Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Sierra Geothermal Power
- Sierra Geothermal Power Geothermal Development Strategy
- " US Geothermal
- US Geothermal Development Strategy "
- Western GeoPower Corp.
- Western GeoPower Geothermal Development Strategy
- 6. Strategy Profiles: Global Utilities and IPPs
- " Calpine
- Calpine Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE)
- CFE Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Contact Energy
- Contact Energy Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Enel
- Enel Geothermal Development Strategy
- " First Gen Corp.
- First Gen Geothermal Development Strategy
- " MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co.
- MidAmerican Geothermal Development Strategy
- " National Power Corp. (NPC)
- National Power Corp. Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Philippine National Oil Co. - Energy
- Development Corp. (PNOC - EDC)
- PNOC - EDC Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Orkuveita Reykjavikur (Reykjavik Energy)
- Reykjavik Energy Geothermal Development Strategy
- 7. Strategy Profiles: Oil and Gas Players
- " Chevron
- Chevron Geothermal Development Strategy
- " Fellows Energy
- Fellows Energy Geothermal Development Strategy
- " PT Pertamina (Persero)
- PT Pertamina Geothermal Development Strategy
VI. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS: GEOTHERMAL PLANT SUPPLY
- 1. Geothermal Technology Competition
- " Power Block Differentiates Competition for Plant Supply
- " Driller Competition Shifting Toward Specialists as Industry Picks up
Steam
- 2. Geothermal Power Plant Market Share Analysis
- " Regional Market Share Trends Impacting Competition
- " Project Pipeline Reflects Strong Leadership with a Few Emerging
Entrants
- " Established OEMs Compete in Large Class Turbine Segment
- Japanese Suppliers Set to Continue
- Dominating Geothermal Steam Turbine Market
- Leading Traditional US and European
- Players Re - Evaluate Geothermal Strategy
- " Binary Market Competition
- Ormat Attracts Competition as Small - Scale Segment Poised for Growth
- UTC Steps in with Modular Approach
- Atlas Copco Snags Enel for First Commercial Orders
- Turboden, GMK, and TAS Compete for Niche Low - Temperature
Opportunities
- Kalina Cycle Attracts Upstarts Looking for Competitive Edge
- 3. Drilling Competition
- " Niche Players Look to Build Competitive Advantage as Market Heats Up
- ThermaSource Establishes Leadership
- " Oil and Gas Heavyweights
- " Developers Look to Integrate Drilling
- 4. Strategy Profiles:
- " Large Steam Turbine Providers
- Alstom SA
- Ansaldo Energia
- Fuji Electric
- General Electric
- Kaluga Turbine Works
- Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
- Toshiba
- " Organic Rankine Cycle / Kalina Cycle Providers
- Elliot Energy Systems
- GMK
- Mafi Trench (Atlas Copco)
- Siemens
- Turboden
- United Technologies Corporation (Pratt & Whitney)
- " Drillers
LIST OF EXHIBITS
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 1. Global Geothermal Industry Evolution by Market, 1980 - 2015
- 2. Global Geothermal Country Rankings by Installed Capacity and Pipeline
- 3. Map of Western US Geothermal Activity
- 4. Installed and Pipeline Capacity in Key Markets
- 5. Value Chain Positioning of Global Geothermal Players
- 6. Ownership Trends Among 20 Largest Companies
- 7. Project Development Pipeline
- 8. Strategic Resource Focus of Geothermal Developers
- 9. Geographic Presence of Leading Global Geothermal Developers
- 10. Geothermal Technology Deployment by Type
- 11. Market Share Analysis of Geothermal Power Plant Supply
- 12. Binary Technology Market Competition
- 13. Geothermal Steam Turbine Shipments Since 2004
- 14. Drillers Selected for Recent Projects, 2004 - 2009
- 15. Base - Case and High - Growth Forecasts
- 16. Geothermal Regional Forecast, 2009 - 2020 (Annual Additions)
- 17. Technology Breakdown Forecast in Annual Additions: High - Growth
Scenario
- 18. Forecast of Capital Investment Geothermal, 2009 - 2020
- 19. Investment in Geothermal (US$ Millions): Base - Case, 2009 - 2020
II. GLOBAL RESOURCE AND POLICY DRIVERS
- 1. Renewable Power Market Evaluation Components
- 2. Modest but Steady Geothermal Growth, 1970 - 2008
- 3. Typical Capacity Factors of Competing Power Generation Technologies
- 4. Cost Comparison of Geothermal Relative to Other Renewables
- 5. Global Geothermal Resources Map
- 6. Global Geothermal Resource Potential
- 7. Regional Hydrothermal Geothermal Resource Potential Comparison
- 8. North America Geothermal Resources
- 9. Geothermal Resource Potential in Europe, Iceland, and Russia
- 10. Geothermal Resources in Asia
- 11. Resource Potential in Caribbean and Latin America
- 12. Resource Potential of Africa' s Great Rift Valley
- 13. Key Regions That Have Adopted Renewables Policies
- 14. Incentives for Geothermal Under ARRA
- 15. State RPS Goals with Geothermal ProjectActivity
- 16. US State RPS Summary Details in Key Geothermal States
- 17. Renewable Energy Incentive Schemes Supporting Geothermal in the US
- 18. EU Renewable Policy Goals
- 19. Geothermal FITs in Europe
- 20. Summary of Philippines and Indonesia Renewable Energy Policies
- 21. Global Geothermal Energy Projects Accessing CDM Markets
- 22. Active World Bank Projects Supporting Geothermal
III. GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGY AND COST TRENDS
- 1. Global Geothermal Power Plant Evolution, 1970 - 2008
- 2. Geothermal Technology Deployment by Type
- 3. Analysis of Technology Selection for Recent Geothermal Projects
- 4. Dry Steam Technology Attributes and Operating Projects
- 5. Single - and Dual - Flash Systems Attributes and Recent Key Projects
- 6. Status of Operating Flash Binary Combined Cycle Power Plants
- 7. Key Technical Attributes of Binary Geothermal Technologies
- 8. Comparison of Competing Binary Technologies' Operating Characteristics
- 9. Status of Operating Kalina Cycle Binary Power Plants
- 10. Recent and Near - Term EGS Project Demonstration
- 11. Development Timelines of Competing Power Generation Technologies
- 12. Geothermal Power Production Costs
- 13. Breakdown of Capital Costs for a Geothermal Project
- 14. Drill Rig Supply and Cost
- 15. Enhanced Geothermal Costs
- 16. Geothermal Cost Compared to Other Renewables
IV. GLOBAL GEOTHERMAL MARKET ANALYSIS, 2009 - 2020
- 1. Global Geothermal Industry Evolution by Market, 1980 - 2008
- 2. Installed Capacity and Pipeline Capacity in Key Markets
- 3. Market Maturity of Geothermal
- 4. Progress Toward Operation of the Global Geothermal Pipeline
- 5. Project Size Distribution of Geothermal Project Activity
- 6. Project Size Trends in Key Geothermal Markets
- 7. US Project Development Activity
- 8. Map of Western US Geothermal Activity
- 9. Coal Plant Cancellations Relative to Geothermal Pipeline
- 10. 2007 - 2008 BLM Land Lease Applications by Developer
- 11. Transmission Build - Out in the US
- 12. Global Geothermal Country Rankings by Installed Capacity and Pipeline
- 13. Project Activity in Indonesia
- 14. Geothermal Project Activity in the Philippines
- 15. Installed Capacity in Iceland Jumps in Recent Years
- 16. Key Regions of Mexico' s Geothermal Activity
- 17. Map of Geothermal Activity in South America
- 18. Geothermal Project Activity in Turkey by Project Site
- 19. Russian Renewables Development Activity
- 20. German Geothermal Development Summary
- 21. Australia Geothermal Development Summary
- 22. Overview of EER' s Forecast Methodology
- 23. Base - Case and High - Growth Forecasts
- 24. Geothermal Regional Forecast, 2009 - 2020
- 25. US Growth in Installed Geothermal Capacity: Base - Case, 2000 - 2020
- 26. Geothermal Growth in Southeast Asia: Base - Case, 2000 - 2020
- 27. Capacity Additions in the Rest of the World: Base - Case, 2008 - 2020
- 28. Technology Breakdown Forecast in Annual Additions: High - Growth
Scenario
- 29. Forecast of Capital Investment Geothermal, 2009 - 2020
- 30. Investment in Geothermal (US$ Millions): Base - Case, 2009 - 2020
V. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS: GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
- 1. Evolution of Geothermal Competitive Landscape
- 2. Value Chain Positioning of Global Geothermal Players
- 3. Strategic Resource Focus of Geothermal Developers
- 4. Projects Brought Online, 2006 - 2008
- 5. Ownership Trends Among 20 Largest Companies
- 6. Project Development Pipeline
- 7. Geographic Presence of Leading Global Geothermal Developers
- 8. Geothermal Project Pipeline Rankings in the US
- 9. Geographic Presence of Leading Global Geothermal Developers
- 10. Ormat' s Global Activity
- 11. Commercial Status of Active US Geothermal Power Project Developers
- 12. Raser Technologies Project Development Overview
- 13. Geysir Green Energy Global Investment Reach, 2008
- 14. Developer Involvement in EGS
- 15. Top 20 Largest Owners of Renewable Power Generation Capacity Globally,
2008
- 16. Pipeline Geothermal Power Projects with Signed PPAs
- 17. AltaRock Energy Company Profile
- 18. Esmeralda Energy Company Profile
- 19. Exorka Geothermal Company Profile
- 20. Geodynamics Company Profile
- 21. Geysir Green Energy Company Profile
- 22. Hitaveita Sudurnesja Company Profile
- 23. Hitaveita Sudurnesja Development Activity
- 24. Iceland America Energy Company Profile
- 25. Magma Energy Company Profile
- 26. Magma Energy Development Activity
- 27. Nevada Geothermal Power Company Profile
- 28. Nevada Geothermal Power Development Activity
- 29. Ormat Company Profile
- 30. Ormat Development Activity
- 31. Panax Company Profile
- 32. Petrathrem Company Profile
- 33. Polaris Geothermal Company Profile
- 34. Polaris Geothermal Development Activity
- 35. Ram Power Company Profile
- 36. Raser Technologies Company Profile
- 37. Raser Technologies Development Activity
- 38. Sierra Geothermal Power Company Profile
- 39. Sierra Geothermal Power Development Activity
- 40. US Geothermal Company Profile
- 41. US Geothermal Development Activity
- 42. Western GeoPower Company Profile
- 43. Western GeoPower Development Activity
- 44. Calpine Company Profile
- 45. Calpine Geothermal Plant Ownership
- 46. CFE Company Profile
- 47. CFE Development Activity
- 48. Contact Energy Company Profile
- 49. Contact Energy Development Activity
- 50. Enel Company Profile
- 51. Enel Development Activity
- 52. First Gen Company Profile
- 53. First Gen Development Activity
- 54. MidAmerican Company Profile
- 55. MidAmerican Development Activity
- 56. National Power Corp. Company Profile
- 57. National Power Corp. Development Activity
- 58. PNOC - EDC Company Profile
- 59. Reykjavik Energy Company Profile
- 60. Reykjavik Energy Development Activity
- 61. Chevron Company Profile
- 62. Chevron Development Activity
- 63. Fellows Energy Company Profile
- 64. PT Pertamina Company Profile
- 65. PT Pertamina Development Activity
VI. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS: GEOTHERMAL PLANT SUPPLY
- 1. Company Positioning Along Geothermal Supply Chain
- 2. Power Block Segmentation by Size, Class, and Technology Type
- 3. Drillers Selected for Recent Projects, 2004 - 2009
- 4. Market Share Analysis of Geothermal Power Plant Supply
- 5. Geothermal Power Plant Market Share in Key Global Market Regions
- 6. Known Supply Contracts for Planned Geothermal Projects at Advanced
Stages
- 7. OEM Market Share by Top 15 Geothermal Plant Owners, Through Year - end
2008
- 8. Geothermal Steam Turbine Shipments Since 2004
- 9. Binary Technology Market Competition
- 10. Ormat Geothermal Technology Supply Experience
- 11. Evolution of UTC Modular Binary Capabilities
- 12. ORC Technology Promoters Market Segmentation
- 13. Experience Curve for Kalina Technologies
- 14. Geothermal Drilling Market Segmentation
- 15. ThermaSource Involvement in Geothermal by Country, Region
- 16. Developer Drilling Involvement
- 17. Alstom Company Profile
- 18. Alstom Geothermal Reference List
- 19. Ansaldo Energia Company Profile
- 20. Fuji Electric Company Profile
- 21. Fuji Electric Geothermal Reference List (2000 to Present)
- 22. GE Company Profile
- 23. GE Geothermal Reference List (2000 to Present)
- 24. Kaluga Turbine Works Company Profile
- 25. Kaluga Turbine Works Geothermal Reference List
- 26. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Company Profile
- 27. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Geothermal Reference List (2000 to Present)
- 28. Toshiba Company Profile
- 29. Toshiba Geothermal Reference List (2000 to Present)
- 30. Elliot Energy Systems Company Profile
- 31. Elliot Energy Systems Geothermal Reference List
- 32. GMK Company Profile
- 33. GMK Geothermal Reference List
- 34. Mafi Trench Profile
- 35. Mafi Trench Geothermal Reference List
- 36. Siemens Company Profile
- 37. Siemens Geothermal Reference List
- 38. Turboden Company Profile
- 39. Turboden Geothermal Reference List
- 40. United Technologies Company Profile
- 41. United Technologies Geothermal Reference List
- 42. Drillers Active in the Geothermal Industry (2000 to Present)
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