US UTILITY SOLAR PV MARKETS AND STRATEGIES: 2009-2020

US UTILITY SOLAR PV MARKETS AND STRATEGIES: 2009-2020 published by Emerging Energy Research in November, 2009. This report price starts from US $ 3750.

Introduction

Abstract

With over 4.8 GW of projects in the pipeline, utilities will be the largest group of photovoltaic (PV) project developers in the US over the next three to five years - marking a deviation from their previously limited role. Utility demand for PV in states with RPS, solar carve-outs, and local requirements will carry the US market forward until costs become more competitive for broader deployment.

In stepping up their PV activities via power purchase agreements and ownership initiatives in 33 states, utilities are using the opportunity to evaluate PV' s role in their longer-term generation mixes. Access to the federal investment tax credit (ITC) and stimulus funds has also emboldened utilities to deploy PV. Furthermore, utility strategies come at a lower risk as they seek public utility commission approval for rate-based projects.

EER' s new study, US Utility Solar PV Markets and Strategies: 2009 - 2020, provides extensive analysis of US utility strategies in PV.

Following are just a few of the key trends addressed in EER' s new solar market study:

Utilities define procurement strategies: Nineteen US utilities are employing multiple strategies-- PPAs and ownership-- to add PV to their generation mixes. Seventeen investor-owned utilities (e.g. SCE, SDG&E, PG&E, FP&L) are tailoring their PV ownership approaches to increase the likelihood of project approval by utility commissions, while municipal utilities (e.g. LADWP, Jacksonville Electric Authority) unable to capture investment tax credit and with limited regulatory oversight, seek contracts with independent power producers.

PV siting versatility expands utility options: Turning the traditional utility model on its head, utilities are embracing PV' s rooftop capabilities and smaller-scale flexibility. By leveraging their existing land assets and access to rooftops, SCE, SDG&E, Duke Carolinas, and PSEG are spreading installations across their networks to meet obligations and to demonstrate the technologies' impact.

Turnkey system integrators at the forefront: Utility ownership relies almost solely on turnkey system providers. As a result, US module suppliers First Solar and SunPower have a leading edge, but are facing increasing competition from opportunistic multinationals Solon, Suntech, and Yingli as they increase their stakes in the market.

STUDY HIGHLIGHTS

US PV Market Drivers and Challenges

• RES/Federal Incentives
• State RPS
• Carbon Policies
• Technology and Economic Drivers
• Economic Climate Impact
• PV Siting Issues

US PV Development Strategies

• Ownership/Procurement Strategies
• Munis
• Siting Strategy

Strategy Profiles

• Investor-Owned Utilities
• Municipal Utilities
• Cooperative Utilities

Competitive Analysis

• PV Deployment Strategy Drivers
• Development Market Share Analysis
• Technology Supplier Market Analysis

US Utility PV Market Rankings

• Top US Utility PV Rankings (Historical 2003-2009)
• PV Project Pipeline
• Ownership vs PPA
• Ground-Based vs Rooftop

Market Forecasts Through 2020

• Forecast by Utility Type (IOU, Coop, Muni)
• Forecast by Geography (State by State)
• Ownership vs PPA

Table of Contents

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

II. US SOLAR PV MARKET ENVIRONMENT

1. Shifting Landscape Drives US Growth

2. US Policy Drivers

• State and Federal Decisions Push Utility Adoption
• Renewable Portfolio Standards
  • RPS Design Increasingly Targets Solar
  • Federal RPS Places Pressure on Utilities
• Federal Incentive Programs
  • Federal ITC Available to Investor-Owned Utilities
  • Impact of Treasury Grant Uncertain
  • Loan Guarantee Program Alters Approach

3. PV Cost Trends

• Global Demand Shifts Are Driving Silicon Glut
• Thin Film Breaks Through, But Advantage Eroding
• Next-Generation Technologies on the Horizon

4. PV in Overall US Power Mix

• Competitive Fuel Volatility Bolsters Long- Term PV Growth
• PV Industry Finds Project-Size Sweet Spot
• Module Prices Drive Down System Costs
• Carbon Policy on the Horizon

5. Solar Resources and PV Siting Issues

• Solar Resource Disparities Concentrate Scale Opportunities
• BLM Draws Interest From PV Developers
• BLM Looks to Expedite Permitting Process

6. Economic Environment

• Tax Equity Investors Diminished
• Silicon Shortage Replaced by Financial Bottleneck

III. US UTILITY PV DEMAND DRIVERS AND FORECASTS

1. Policy Drivers Shape Utility PV Market

• Solar Carve-Outs
  • Distributed Generation Targets Translate into Rooftop PV Build-out
  • For Eastern and Midwestern US, PV Represents Best Option
  • PV and CSP Compete for “all solar” Carveouts in Key Markets
• General RPS Drivers
  • California Utilities Choose Solar in Absence of Carve-out
  • Florida and Texas Await Policy Changes

2. Utility Integration of PV Power

• Solar Costs Remain Barrier Widespread Penetration
• PV on the Heels of CSP
• Utilities Look to Defend Service Territories
• Deployment Strategies Impact Cost Profile
• Utilities Test Capacity to Add Costly PV

3. Utility PV Demand vs. Overall RPS Demand

• Overall RPS Demand Overshadows Solar Carve Outs
• Utility PV Market Eclipses Commercial Market

4. US Utility Market Forecast, 2009-2020

• Forecast by Geography
• Forecast by Utility Type
• Ownership vs. Power Purchase Agreement

5. Siting Forecast and Primary Component Forecast

• Ground-based vs. Rooftop
• Technology Forecasts

IV. US UTILITY STRATEGIES FOR DEPLOYING PV POWER

1. US Utility PV Rankings

2. PV Deployment Strategy Drivers Among US Utilities

• RPS, Solar Carve-Outs Drive Utility PV Action
• Rapid Deployment and Siting Versatility Raise PV Profile
• Geography Shapes Solar Strategy
• Municipal Utilities Scale Independently of Regulators
• Solar Service Provider Success Sparks Utilities to Action

3. Utility PV Experience Curve

• PV Ownership and Procurement Mix
  • Utility PV Pipeline Analysis
  • Utility Procurement Experience: 2003 - 2009
  • Munis Rely on PPA Model
  • REC Strategies Play Key Role
• Project Siting Trends
  • Rooftop Systems Come at Cost
  • Utilities Continue Along Learning Curve
  • Utilities Mix Approaches for Distributed Systems

4. IOU Strategies

• Utility Solar Procurement Strategies
  • PG&E, Sempra Sidestep Permitting with PV Import Play
  • Florida Utilities Get Ahead of RPS Legislation
  • RFPs a Key Tool for Utilities
  • APS, Select Utilities Favor CSP for Large-Scale Solar
• Siting and Technology
  • Duke, PSE&G to Leverage Residential Rooftops
  • PG&E and SCE Tailor Siting Approach to CPUC
  • Western Utilities Embrace Tracking Systems to Boost Output

5. Muni PV Development Strategies

• PV Procurement Strategies
  • LIPA and NYPA Roll Out PV
  • Texas Munis Turn to Utility-Scale Solar
• Siting and Technology
  • LADWP Leverages Solar Spectrum
  • Tri-State Spreads RECs Across Multiple States

V. ANALYSIS OF US UTILITY PV SUPPLY TRENDS

1. Utility PV Supply Trends

• Utility Procurement Channels: PPAs vs. Turnkey Installations
• PPAs Diverge on PV Technology
• PV Technology Supply Trends

2. Analysis of PPA and Turnkey PV Supply

• Competitive Analysis of Utility PV PPA Market
  • Module Suppliers Step Up Ownership Roles
  • Traditional Power IPPs Show Interest in Utility PV Market
  • European Players Tap into New Markets via PPAs
• Competitive Analysis of Utility PV Turnkey Supplier Market
  • First Solar Taps into Turnkey Demand in Southwest
  • SunPower Diversifies Development Approach
  • SOLON Cracks the US Utility PV Market
• Utility PV Market Share by Power Provider
  • First Solar Takes Early Lead as PPA Provider
  • Turnkey System Market Share

3. Competitive Analysis of Utility PV Module and Systems Market

• Market Share Analysis
• Competitive Analysis of Utility PV Module Supply
  • PV Module Supplier Market Highly Concentrated
  • First Solar Stands Alone Among TF Players
  • Suntech Moves to Secure US Market Share
  • Module Manufacturers Build Facilities in US
• Trackers and Inverters
  • Utilities Maximize Power Output with Trackers
  • Inverter Suppliers Scaling with US Utility PV Projects
  • Key Relationships Position Xantrex at Industry Forefront

VI. UTILITY PROFILES

1. Investor Owned Utilities

• Pacific Gas and Electric
• Southern California Edison (SCE)
• San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E)
• Arizona Public Service (APS)
• NV Energy
• Xcel Energy (Public Service of Colorado)
• El Paso Electric Company
• Tucson Electric Power (TEP)
• Public Service of New Mexico (PNM)
• Exelon
• Florida Power & Light
• Progress Energy
• Duke Carolinas
• Delmarva Power
• Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG)
• American Electric Power (AEP)

2. Municipal Utilities

• Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP)
• Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD)
• Salt River Project
• CPS Energy
• Austin Energy
• Tampa Electric Company (TECO)
• Jacksonville Electric Association (JEA)
• Lakeland Electric
• Long Island Power Authority
• New York Power Authority (NYPA)
• Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association Inc.

LIST OF EXHIBITS

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• 1. Evolving PV Marketplace
• 2. RPS Policy Is Primary Driver for PV Deployment
• 3. Renewables Cost of Energy Comparison
• 4. Solar Technology Comparison
• 5. US Utility PV Procurement Strategies
• 6. Top 20 Utility Pipeline PV Rankings by Procurement Strategy
• 7. Siting Strategies for Utilities with More Than 10 MW in the Pipeline
• 8. Utility PV Value Chain
• 9. Operating and Planned PPA and Turnkey Installations by State and Technology
• 10. Module Supplier Movements Along the Value Chain
• 11. Utility PV Tracking Projects in the Pipeline
• 12. Sempra, LS Power Win Utility PPAs
• 13. US Utility PV Forecast Methodology
• 14. US Utility Market Base-Case and High- Growth National Forecasts: 2009 - 2020
• 15. Forecast Breakdown by Ownership Model

II. US SOLAR PV MARKET ENVIRONMENT

• 1. Evolving PV Marketplace
• 2. Renewable Technology Cost Evolution
• 3. Policy Drivers
• 4. State RPSs with Solar Carve-Outs
• 5. Solar Focus Sharpened in RPS Legislation
• 6. Proposed Federal RPS Details
• 7. Investment Tax Credit Details
• 8. Grant Option Timeline and Pipelines
• 9. Loan Guarantee Details
• 10. Spain' s Drop Is Catalyst for Module Oversupply
• 11. Thin Film Costs and Market Share
• 12. Natural Gas Volatility
• 13. PV Reaches Economies of Scale
• 14. Cost Forecasts and Component Breakdown
• 15. State and Regional Carbon Policies
• 16. US Solar Resources
• 17. BLM Solar PV Applications Over Time by State
• 18. BLM PV Applications and Solar Study Areas
• 19. General Changes in Availability and Finance Raising
• 20. Impact of Financial Environment

III. US UTILITY SOLAR PV DEMAND DRIVERS AND FORECASTS

• 1. US Utility PV Forecast Methodology
• 2. Distributed Generation - Only Carve-Outs
• 3. Solar Carve-Outs to Be Met by PV
• 4. Western US Solar Carve-Outs
• 5. California RPS Scale and Utility Procurement Trends
• 6. Texas and Florida RPS Projections
• 7. Renewables Cost of Energy Comparison
• 8. Solar Technology Comparison
• 9. Retail Electric Prices by State
• 10. Caps on RPS Cost Impacting the Rate Base
• 11. Solar Demand vs. Overall RPS Demand
• 12. US PV Market Breakdown by Segment
• 13. US Utility Market Base-Case and High- Growth National Forecasts: 2009 - 2020
• 14. Forecast Breakdown by State
• 15. Forecast Breakdown by Utility Type
• 16. Forecast Breakdown by Ownership Model
• 17. Forecast by Siting
• 18. Forecast Breakdown by Technology

IV. US UTILITY STRATEGIES FOR DEPLOYING SOLAR PV POWER

• 1. Top 20 Utility Pipeline Rankings Over Time
• 2. RPS Policy Is Primary Driver for PV Deployment
• 3. Renewables Development Timeline
• 4. Top 20 Largest US PV Projects
• 5. Major Muni Solar PV Activity
• 6. Developer and Utility Siting Strategy Analysis
• 7. US Utility PV Procurement Strategies
• 8. Top 20 Utility Pipeline PV Rankings by Procurement Strategy
• 9. Top 20 Installed PV Utility Rankings of Systems Larger Than 100 kW
• 10. Municipal Utility Procurement Strategies
• 11. Utility REC Procurement Drivers
• 12. Utility Project Cost Trends by Siting Strategy
• 13. Siting Strategies for Utilities with More Than 10 MW in Pipeline
• 14. Utility Distributed Generation Siting Strategies
• 15. IOU PV Adoption Curve
• 16. Nevada Solar Export Routes and Projects
• 17. Florida Utilities' Solar Activity
• 18. US Utilities' Solar Procurement by Technology Type
• 19. PSE&G and Duke Distributed Generation Initiatives
• 20. Utility PV Tracking Projects in the Pipeline
• 21. Municipal and Cooperative Development Curve
• 22. New York Municipal Utilities' PV Activity
• 23. CPS Energy and Austin Energy Push Solar Forward in Texas
• 24. LA Solar Plan Breakdown
• 25. Tri-State Spans Central US with REC Strategy

V. ANALYSIS OF US UTILITY SOLAR PV SUPPLY TRENDS

• 1. Operating and Planned PPA and Turnkey Installations by State and Technology
• 2. PPA Lengths by Technology
• 3. Utility PV Value Chain
• 4. Module Supplier Movements Along the Value Chain
• 5. Sempra, LS Power Win Utility PPAs
• 6. European Solar Developers Tap into Secondary US Markets
• 7. First Solar Utility PV Project Value Chain Analysis
• 8. SunPower Offers Turnkey Services
• 9. Top 20 PPA Provider Market Share
• 10. Turnkey System Provider Market Share
• 11. Untapped US Module Supply Opportunity
• 12. PV Module Supply Market Share
• 13. First Solar US Supply Position
• 14. US PV Module Supplier Technology Comparison
• 15. Major US PV Manufacturers
• 16. Inverters Scaling with US PV Projects
• 17. Inverter Suppliers for 10 Largest Installed US Utility PV Projects

VI. SOLAR PV UTILITY PROFILES

• 1. Pacific Gas & Electric Key Solar Developments
• 2. Pacific Gas & Electric Solar Profile
• 3. Southern California Edison Key Solar Developments
• 4. Southern California Edison Solar Profile
• 5. San Diego Gas & Electric Key Solar Developments
• 6. San Diego Gas & Electric Solar Profile
• 7. Arizona Public Service Key Solar Developments
• 8. Arizona Public Service Solar Profile
• 9. NV Energy Key Solar Developments
• 10. NV Energy Solar Profile
• 11. Xcel Energy Key Solar Developments
• 12. Xcel Energy Solar Profile
• 13. El Paso Electric Co. Key Solar Developments
• 14. El Paso Electric Co. Solar Profile
• 15. Tucson Electric Power Key Solar Developments
• 16. Tucson Electric Power Solar Profile
• 17. Public Service of New Mexico Key Solar Developments
• 18. Public Service of New Mexico Solar Profile
• 19. Exelon Key Solar Developments
• 20. Exelon Solar Profile
• 21. Florida Power & Light Key Solar Developments
• 22. Florida Power & Light Solar Profile
• 23. Progress Energy Key Solar Developments
• 24. Progress Energy Solar Profile
• 25. Duke Energy Carolinas Key Solar Developments
• 26. Duke Energy Carolinas Solar Profile
• 27. Delmarva Power Key Solar Developments
• 28. Delmarva Power Solar Profile
• 29. Public Service Enterprise Group Key Solar Developments
• 30. Public Service Enterprise Group Solar Profile
• 31. American Electric Power Key Solar Developments
• 32. American Electric Power Solar Profile
• 33. Los Angeles Department of Water and Power Key Solar Developments
• 34. Los Angeles Department of Water and Power Solar Profile
• 35. Sacramento Municipal Utility District Key Solar Developments
• 36. Sacramento Municipal Utility District Solar Profile
• 37. Salt River Project Key Solar Developments
• 38. Salt River Project Solar Profile
• 39. CPS Energy Key Solar Developments
• 40. CPS Energy Solar Profile
• 41. Austin Energy Key Solar Developments
• 42. Austin Energy Solar Profile
• 43. Tampa Electric Power Co. Key Solar Developments
• 44. Tampa Electric Power Co. Solar Profile
• 45. Jacksonville Electric Association Key Solar Developments
• 46. Jacksonville Electric Association Solar Profile
• 47. Lakeland Electric Key Solar Developments
• 48. Lakeland Electric Solar Profile
• 49. Long Island Power Authority Key Solar Developments
• 50. Long Island Power Authority Solar Profile
• 51. New York Power Authority Key Solar Developments
• 52. New York Power Authority Solar Profile
• 53. Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association Key Solar Developments
• 54. Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association Solar Profile

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