Southern Europe Solar PV Markets and Strategies: 2009-2020

Southern Europe Solar PV Markets and Strategies: 2009-2020 published by Emerging Energy Research in December, 2009. This report price starts from US $ 3750.

Introduction

Abstract

Southern Europe PV markets are heating up as solar project developers and global PV industry players seek to recover from the 2008 Spanish meltdown and financial crisis. Central to the rebound are the increasing number of utilities and PV-IPPs turning their attention to Italy, France, Spain, and Greece-- to capitalize on improved regulatory environments and government support. EER forecasts a sharp decline in 2009, but a turn-around in 2010 en route to 4 GW annual growth from 2010-2020 across the four southern European countries.

Emerging Southern Europe PV markets are becoming increasingly important in the global renewable energy picture. A new study from EER, Southern Europe Solar PV Markets and Strategies: 2009 - 2020, provides in-depth market analysis for those seeking to stay competitive in global PV markets.

Following are just a few of the key trends addressed in the study:

Italy PV market scales : Attractive PV feed-in tariffs ranging from € 0.35/kWh to € 0.43/kWh for ground based and building integrated PV against the backdrop of the Spanish PV slowdown has ignited the Italian PV market. At the leading edge of the burgeoning market are more than 84 foreign and domestic developers which are scaling their activities with 572 MW of total installed capacity through the first half of 2009 en route to 1200 MW in 2011.

France lays foundation for market growth: In formalizing its regulatory incentives in September 2009, France' s PV market environment has arguably become the most promising in southern Europe. With EDF acting as a solar “national champion”, France PV capacity is forecasted to reach 6.25 GW by 2020. Central to this expansion will be the role of thin film suppliers, such as First Solar, launching domestic manufacturing and a strong presence of local suppliers and developers.

Spain faces a boom and bust cycle : Exemplifying the PV industry' s risk laden dependence on government regulation, Spain' s 2.8 GW of runaway growth has been brought to a halt with only 6 MW installed in the first three quarters of 2009. While the true impact of the policy changes on the 500 MW target has not yet been realized, indications signal that Spain' s economic problems are wreaking havoc on the local industry. As a result, better financed and opportunistic players are targeting already permitted, yet undeveloped projects to acquire.

Greece jumpstarts once-stalled PV market: To the frustration of project developers, the uncertain permitting process has failed to clear the more than 3.4 GW of PV applications which have been submitted for approval. However, the first green shoot may have appeared with the approval of BIOSAR Energy' s 4.3 MW plant slated for early 2010.

STUDY HIGHLIGHTS

Solar PV Capacity Forecasts, 2009 - 2020

• Solar PV Capacity and MW Added Forecasts 2009 - 2020 by Country
• Solar PV Market Forecasts Segmented by Size of Installation
• Ground Mounted vs. Roof Mounted
• Solar PV Penetration

Southern Europe Solar PV Market Environments (Italy, France, Span, Greece)

• Solar Resources
• Regulatory Mechanisms
• Site Approval
• Utility/Grid Issues
• Competition

Leading Player Strategy Profiles

• System Providers
• Developers
• Utilities
• Independent Power Producers
• Specialized PV Power Producers
• Financers and Investors

PV Supply Market Share

• Module Suppliers
• Technology Selection
• Tracker Suppliers
• Rooftop vs. Ground based
• Inverter Suppliers

Competitive Analysis of Value Chain and Development Strategies

• Framework Agreements
• Technology Selection
• Value Chain Positioning
• Geographic Focus
• Supply Chain Strategies

Table of Contents

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

II. SOUTHERN EUROPE SOLAR PV DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

1. PV Development in Focus

• Leading Positions in Transition
• Italian Developers Will Take the Lead
• Large Projects Reveal Anomalous Setting
• Systems Integrators Look to Broaden Footprint

2. Incentive Regimes Central to Near-Term Growth

• Rooftop Incentives Draw Activity
• Streamlined Permitting Differentiates Markets

3. Utilities and IPPs Hone Strategies

• Utilities Expand Across PV Value Chain
• Cross-Border Development on the Upswing
• Project Consolidation in the Early Stages

4. Financial Markets Impact PV Development

• Turnkey System Prices Fall
• Banks Seek Higher Margins
• Well-Financed Players Gain the Upper Hand

III. SOUTHERN EUROPE SOLAR PV SUPPLY TRENDS AND ANALYSIS

1. Solar PV Technology Supply Landscape

• Consolidation and Partnerships on the Rise
• Technology Suppliers Balance Efficiency and Cost
• Spotlight on Rooftop Designs

2. Technology Cost Analysis

• Module Prices Drive Down Turnkey System Costs

3. PV Supply Chain in Focus

• Module Suppliers Securing Positions
  • Silicon Modules Remain Dominant
  • Asian Suppliers Take Hold
  • Domestically-Focused Players on Divergent Paths
• Emerging Technologies Challenge Silicon-Based Suppliers
  • First Solar Breaks the Mold
  • Solyndra, Emerging Technologies Gain
  • Traction with New Designs
• Tracker Supply
  • Tracker Suppliers Face New Market
  • Tracker Suppliers Leverage Local Demand
• Inverter Market
  • Inverter Suppliers Keep Pace
  • Upstarts Enter PV Inverter Market

IV. SOUTHERN EUROPE SOLAR PV MARKET FORECASTS

1. Forecast Methodology and Assumptions

• Incentive Structures Spark Near-Term Build-Out
• National PV Targets Provide Line of Sight
• Technology Cost Positioning
• PV Cost-Competitiveness

2. Southern Europe Capacity Forecasts

• Regional Scenario Forecast
• Country Forecasts

V. ITALY SOLAR PV COMPETITIVE MARKET ANALYSIS

1. Market Environment

• Regulatory Incentives
• Renewables Targets
  • Italy PV Targets Get the Ball Rolling
  • National PV Targets in Place to Meet Broader Requirements
• Grid Connection and Permitting
• Solar Resources
• Regional Project Activity

2. Competitive Analysis of PV Development

• Project Developers by Type
• Project Developer Rankings
• PV Development Strategies in Italy
  • Enel: The Elephant in the Room
  • Utilities Tap Italy PV Market
  • Select Spanish and German Developers Turn to Italy
  • Developers Target Commercial Rooftop Sector

3. Competitive Analysis of PV Supply

• Supplier Penetration
  • Asian Module Producers Secure Position with Long-Term Supply Agreements
  • Italian Module Producers Exposed to Weak Demand
  • Thin Film to Grow from Negligible Share
  • Spanish Market Preps Italian Inverter Suppliers
  • Domestic Manufacturers Ecoware and ESP Take Early Lead in Italian Tracker Market
• Cost Analysis and Trends

4. Italy Outlook

• Italy PV Forecasts
  • Market Forecasts
  • System Size Comparison
  • Rooftop Vs. Ground-Based Installation Mix
  • PV Technology Trends and Analysis
• Appendix: Market Forecast and Supply Data

VI. SPAIN SOLAR PV COMPETITIVE MARKET ANALYSIS

1. Market Environment

• Regulatory Incentives
• Renewables Targets
  • Spain' s PV Targets Surpassed
  • European Commission' s Renewable
  • Energy Directive Requires National PV Targets
• Grid Connection and Permitting
• Solar Resources
• Regional Project Activity

2. Competitive Analysis of PV Development

• Project Developers by Type
• Project Developer Rankings
• Domestic PV Players Dominate Spanish PV Market in 2008
• Ground-Based Pipeline Projects at Risk
• PV Development Strategies in Spain
  • Limited Ground-Based Opportunity Tightens Field
  • Leading Spanish Utilities Maintain Limited Role in PV Segment
  • Forward-Looking Developers Well-Positioned for Rooftop Opportunity

3. Competitive Analysis of PV Supply

• PV Supply Trends
• PV Technology Supply Penetration
  • Domestic Module Producers Struggle to Survive Financial Crisis
  • Ingeteam Becomes Global Contender
  • Mecasolar Leads Spanish Tracker Pack
• Cost Analysis and Trends

4. Spain Outlook

• Spain PV Forecasts
  • System Size Comparison
  • Rooftop Vs. Ground-Based Installation Mix
  • PV Technology Trends and Analysis
• Appendix: Market Forecasts and Supply Data

VII. FRANCE SOLAR PV COMPETITIVE MARKET ANALYSIS

1. Market Environment

• Regulatory Incentives
  • November 2008 Tariff Regime Establishes Foundation for Growth
  • September 2009 Revisions Alters Long-Term Landscape
• Renewables Targets
  • France' s PV Targets Key to Market Activity
  • RES-E Mandates Indirectly Promote PV
• Grid Connection and Permitting
• Solar Resources
• Regional Project Activity

2. Competitive Analysis of PV Development

• Project Developers by Type
• Project Developer Rankings
  • Domestic Project Developers Lay Foundation
  • Scaling Market Attracts New Players
• PV Development Strategies in France
  • EDF, Utilities Push Into PV Development
  • Small, Local Developers Target Rooftops
  • Developers Tap Overseas Departments

3. Competitive Analysis of PV Supply

• Module Supplier Penetration Shaking Out
  • Domestic PV Suppliers Build
  • Manufacturing Capacity
  • First Solar Muscles Into France
• Cost Analysis and Trends

4. France Outlook

• France Market Forecasts
  • System Size Comparison
  • Rooftop Vs. Ground-Based Installations
  • PV Technology Trends and Analysis
• Appendix: Market Forecast and Supply Data

VIII. GREECE SOLAR PV COMPETITIVE MARKET ANALYSIS

1. Market Environment

• Regulatory Incentives
• Renewables Targets
  • Greece Initiative Targets PV
  • European Directive Renewable Energy
  • Targets Get Ball Rolling
• Grid Connection and Permitting
• Solar Resources
• Regional Project Activity

2. PV Development Competitive Analysis

• Project Developers by Type
• Project Developer Rankings
  • Domestic Developers Show Strongly in Operating Project Rankings
  • Project Pipeline Raises Expectations, Uncertainty
• PV Development Strategies in Greece
  • Domestic PV Developers Hold Strong Position
  • International Developers Waiting for the Tide to Turn

3. PV Supply Competitive Analysis

• Supply Chain Trends
  • Module Market Share Far from Settled
  • Select Module Producers Foresee Demand, Build Capacity
  • Share of Thin Film to Remain Static
  • Trackers Maintain Minority Market Share
  • SMA Leads Inverter Suppliers, Competition to Ensue
• Cost Analysis and Trends

4. Greece Outlook

• Greece Forecasts
  • System Size Comparison
  • Rooftop Vs. Ground-Based Installation Mix
  • PV Technology Trends and Analysis
• Appendix: Market Forecast and Supply Data

IX. UTILITY, IPP, AND DEVELOPER PROFILES

1. Utility Profiles

• EDF Energies Nouvelles (EDF EN)
• Electrabel GDF SUEZ
• Eneco Holding N.V. (Ecostream International BV)
• Enel S.p.A.
• E.ON AG
• Iberdrola S.A.

2. Independent Power Producers

• 9REN Group
• Acciona S.A.
• BIOSAR Energy S.A.
• Elecnor S.A.
• Energetica Solare S.p.A.
• ESPE Rinnovabili S.r.l.
• ETA Renewable Energies
• EuroEnergia Group
• Gestamp Asetym Solar S.A.
• Green Utility S.p.A
• juwi solar GmbH
• Moncada Energy Group S.r.l.
• Montealto Energia S.L.
• Nobesol Levante S.L.
• Grupo ProEner S.L.
• 9.2.16 Rokas Group S.L.
• Renovalia Energy S.A.
• Sinosol AG
• Société Séchilienne-Sidec
• Solar Green Utility S.p.A.
• Sorgenia S.p.A.
• Otras Producciones de Energia, S.L. (OPDE)
• Voltalia

3. PV Independent Power Producers

• COLEXON Energy AG
• Conergy AG
• EcoEnergia S.A.
• Edisun Power AG
• Energetica Hellas LLC
• Energyplus
• EnerRay S.r.l
• Hanau Energies
• Heliodynami S.A.
• Heliomechanics S.A.
• Grupo HelioSolar
• imMODO Solar S.L.
• Kerself S.p.A.
• Mecotech
• Phoenix Solar AG
• Ralos Vertriebs GmbH
• Solaer Energias Renovables S.L.
• SolaireDirect
• Solar Green Technology S.p.A.
• Survey Digital Ltd.
• TerniEnergia S.p.A.
• Urbasolar

4. Technology Promoters

• a+f SunCarrier GmbH
• City Solar AG
• MX Group S.p.A.
• Solar Integrated Technologies Corp.
• Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente S.A.
• Solarparc AG and SolarWorld AG
• Solon AG fur Solartechnik
• SunPower Corporation
• Photowatt Technologies, Inc.
• TENESOL

LIST OF EXHIBITS

I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• 1. EU Cumulative PV Growth, Most Active Companies in Southern Europe
• 2. Top 20 Southern Europe Developers by Operational Projects, Excluding Spain
• 3. Southern Europe Cross-Border Development Activity
• 4. Southern Europe Utility Value Chain
• 5. Southern Europe Rooftop Incentives
• 6. Southern Europe PV Supply Landscape
• 7. Asian Suppliers' Southern Europe Market Share
• 8. Global Planned Thin Film Manufacturing Capacity (MW)
• 9. Average European Module Price by Time and Company
• 10. Southern Europe Top 20 Module Supplier Production Capacity
• 11. Southern Europe Turnkey Ground-Based Si System Costs
• 12. Global PV Merger and Acquisition Announcements
• 13. Forecast Methodology
• 14. Southern Europe Forecasted PV Grid- Connected Capacity
• 15. Southern Europe Forecasted PV Grid-Connected Capacity by Country

II. SOUTHERN EUROPE SOLAR PV DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

• 1. EU Cumulative PV Growth with Companies Active in Southern Europe
• 2. Southern Europe Top 25 Developer Rankings by Operational Projects
• 3. Top 20 Southern Europe Developers by Operational Projects, Excluding Spain
• 4. Top Five Largest Operational Projects by Country
• 5. Southern Europe Rooftop Incentives
• 6. Southern Europe Permitting and Grid Connection Times
• 7. Southern Europe Utility Value Chain
• 8. Southern Europe Cross-Border Development Activity
• 9. Europe Turnkey System Prices
• 10. Southern Europe Development Bottlenecks

III. SOUTHERN EUROPE SOLAR PV SUPPLY TRENDS AND ANALYSIS

• 1. Southern Europe PV Supply Landscape
• 2. Global PV Merger and Acquisition Announcements
• 3. PV Technology Provider Module Efficiency and Costs
• 4. PV Technology Provider Module Efficiency and Weight
• 5. Average European Module Price by Time and Company
• 6. Southern Europe Turnkey Ground-Based c- Si System Costs
• 7. Top 20 Module Suppliers Market Share, Cumulative by Megawatts
• 8. Southern Europe Top 20 Module Supplier Production Capacity
• 9. Southern Europe Module Technology Breakdown
• 10. Asian Suppliers' Southern Europe Market Share
• 11. First Solar Production Capacity and Event Timeline
• 12. Global Planned Thin Film Manufacturing Capacity (MW)
• 13. Relationship Between Thin Film Penetration and Tracker Systems
• 14. Southern Europe Tracker Market Share
• 15. Southern Europe Inverter Market Share

IV. SOUTHERN EUROPE SOLAR PV MARKET FORECASTS

• 1. Forecast Methodology
• 2. Southern Europe PV Incentives
• 3. Southern Europe National PV Targets
• 4. Levelized Cost of Electricity Forecasts
• 5. Southern Europe Cost-Competiveness
• 6. Southern Europe Forecasted PV Grid- Connected Capacity
• 7. Southern Europe Forecasted PV Grid- Connected Capacity by Country

V. ITALY SOLAR PV COMPETITIVE MARKET ANALYSIS

• 1. Italy Market Snapshot
• 2. Italy Feed-in Tariff Scheme
• 3. Italy PV and Renewable Energy System Targets
• 4. Grid Connection and Permitting
• 5. Italy Solar Resources
• 6. Italy Regional Breakdown
• 7. Top 100 Italy Projects
• 8. Market Segmentation of Top 20 Developers
• 9. Top 20 Developers by Operating Projects
• 10. Top 20 Developers' Project Pipeline
• 11. Italy PV Value Chain
• 12. Enel PV Activity: 2006 - 2009
• 13. Leading Spanish and German Development Activity in Italy
• 14. Italy Operational and Pipeline Rooftop Activity by Developer and Region
• 15. Supply Market Share, Foreign vs. Domestic
• 16. Module and Inverter Market Share
• 17. Italy PV Module Supply Agreements
• 18. Italian Module Manufacturer Positions
• 19. Module Technology Market Share
• 20. Tracker Market Share
• 21. Italy Cost of Fixed, Ground-Based c-Si Systems
• 22. Cumulative Grid-Connected PV Capacity and PV Addition Forecasts
• 23. Italy PV System Size Comparison
• 24. Italy Rooftop and Ground-Based PV Systems
• 25. Italy Fixed and Tracking System PV Technology Adoption
• 26. Italy PV System Forecast Data Sheet

VI. SPAIN SOLAR PV COMPETITIVE MARKET ANALYSIS

• 1. Spain Market Snapshot
• 2. Spain Incentive Regime
• 3. Spain PV and RES Targets
• 4. Grid Connection and Permitting
• 5. Spain Solar Resources
• 6. Spain Regional Breakdown
• 7. Top 100 Spain Projects
• 8. Market Segmentation of Top 20 Developers
• 9. Top 20 Developers' Operating Projects
• 10. Top 20 Developers' Pipeline Projects
• 11. Spain PV Value Chain
• 12. Ground-Based System Pre-Registration Results
• 13. 2009 Pre-Registration Results, Rooftop Types 1 and 2
• 14. Supply Market Share, Foreign vs. Domestic
• 15. Module and Inverter Market Share
• 16. Spain PV Module Supply Agreements
• 17. Tracker Market Share
• 18. Spain Cost of Fixed, Ground-Based c-Si Systems
• 19. Forecasts, Cumulative Grid-Connected PV Capacity and PV Additions
• 20. Spain PV System Size Comparison
• 21. Spain PV Systems: Rooftop vs. Ground-Based
• 22. Spain PV Technology Adoption: Fixed vs. Tracking Systems
• 23. Spain PV System Forecasts Data Sheet

VII. FRANCE SOLAR PV COMPETITIVE MARKET ANALYSIS

• 1. France PV System Market Snapshot
• 2. France PV Market Incentives
• 3. France 300 MW Ground-Based PV Tender Program
• 4. France PV and RES-E Targets
• 5. France PV Market Grid Connection and Permitting
• 6. France Solar Resources
• 7. France Regional Installed PV Capacity Breakdown
• 8. France Top 50 PV Projects
• 9. Top 15 Developer Operating Projects by Installed Capacity (MW)
• 10. Top 15 Developers Operating Projects by Region
• 11. Top 15 French PV Developer Pipeline Projects
• 12. France PV Market Value Chain
• 13. Top 10 Operational and Pipeline Rooftop Developers in France (MW)
• 14. PV Capacity in France' s Overseas Departments
• 15. France PV Supply Market Share
• 16. First Solar Supply Contracts, Active Developers in France
• 17. France Cost of Ground-Based c-Si Systems
• 18. France Cumulative Grid-Connected PV Capacity and PV Additions: 2006 - 2012
• 19. France PV System Size Comparison
• 20. France Rooftop and Ground-Based Solar PV Market Share
• 21. France Fixed and Tracking Technology Adoption
• 22. PV Market Forecast and Supply Data: 2006 - 2012

VIII. GREECE SOLAR PV COMPETITIVE MARKET ANALYSIS

• 1. Greece PV Market Snapshot
• 2. Greece PV Incentives
• 3. Greece PV Targets
• 4. Grid Connection and Permitting
• 5. Greece Solar Resources
• 6. Greece PV Market Regional Breakdown
• 7. Top 20 Greece PV Projects
• 8. Distribution of Top 15 Greece Developer PV Operating Projects
• 9. Top 15 Greece PV Operating Project Developers
• 10. Top 15 Greece Developer Announced PV Project Pipelines
• 11. Greece PV Value Chain
• 12. Greece Module and Inverter Market Share
• 13. Greece Module Technology Market Share
• 14. Greece Tracker Market Share
• 15. Greece Foreign and Domestic Supply Market Share
• 16. Greece Cost of Fixed, Ground-Based c-Si Systems
• 17. Greece PV Project Forecasts
• 18. PV System Size Comparison
• 19. Greece Rooftop and Ground-Based PV Projects
• 20. Greece Fixed and Tracking Technology Adoption
• 21. Greece PV System Forecasts Data Sheet

IX. UTILITY, IPP, AND DEVELOPER PROFILES

• 1. EDF Energies Nouvelles (EDF EN)
• 2. Electrabel GDF SUEZ
• 3. Eneco Holding N.V. (Ecostream International BV)
• 4. Enel S.p.A.
• 5. E.ON AG
• 6. Iberdrola S.A.
• 7. 9REN Group
• 8. Acciona S.A.
• 9. BIOSAR Energy S.A.
• 10. Elecnor S.A
• 11. Energetica Solare S.p.A.
• 12. ESPE Rinnovabili S.r.l.
• 13. ETA Renewable Energies
• 14. EuroEnergia Group
• 15. Gestamp Asetym Solar S.A.
• 16. Green Utility S.p.A.
• 17. juwi solar GmbH
• 18. Moncada Energy Group S.r.l.
• 19. Montealto Energia S.L.
• 20. Nobesol Levante S.L.
• 21. Grupo ProEner S.L.
• 22. Rokas Renewables
• 23. Renovalia Energy S.A.
• 24. Sinosol AG
• 25. Societe Sechilienne-Sidec
• 26. Solar Green Utility S.p.A.
• 27. Sorgenia S.p.A.
• 28. Otras Producciones de Energia, S.L. (OPDE)
• 29. VOLTALIA
• 30. COLEXON Energy AG
• 31. Conergy AG
• 32. EcoEnergia S.A.
• 33. Edisun Power AG
• 34. Energetica Hellas LLC
• 35. Energyplus
• 36. EnerRay S.r.l
• 37. Hanau Energies
• 38. Heliodynami S.A.
• 39. Heliomechanics S.A.
• 40. Grupo HelioSolar
• 41. imMODO Solar S.L.
• 42. Kerself S.p.A.
• 43. Mecotech
• 44. Phoenix Solar AG
• 45. Ralos Vertriebs GmbH
• 46. Solaer Energias Renovables S.L.
• 47. SolaireDirect
• 48. Solar Green Technology S.p.A.
• 49. Survey Digital Limited
• 50. TerniEnergia S.p.A.
• 51. Urbasolar
• 52. a+f SunCarrier GmbH
• 53. City Solar AG
• 54. MX Group S.p.A.
• 55. Solar Integrated Technologies Corp.
• 56. Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente S.A.
• 57. Solarparc AG
• 58. Solon AG fur Solartechnik
• 59. SunPower Corp.
• 60. Photowatt Technologies, Inc.
• 61. TENESOL

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