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Market Research Report
Europe Solar PV Markets and Strategies: 2010-2025
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This publication has been discontinued on September 24, 2011.
Abstract
The Europe solar photovoltaic (PV) market has undergone significant changes in
the last 18 months - underpinned by regulatory revisions, economic crisis, and
technology oversupply. As a result, the 2010-2012 period is shaping up to be
one of significant transformation as PV companies navigate this volatile
market toward 100 GW of total installed capacity by 2025.
While European PV growth in 2009 was driven by Germany' s 3.8 GW of additions,
going forward PV market growth is shifting to new capacity additions in
southern and central Europe. The market' s broadening outside of Germany is
scaling up competition among a growing number of global utilities, IPPs, and
developers seeking to capture PV opportunities in rooftop, ground-based, and
building-integrated PV markets.
A new study from IHS Emerging Energy Research, Europe Solar PV Markets and
Strategies: 2010- 2025, analyzes the shifting Europe PV market landscape,
assesses the factors pushing solar PV deployment in Europe, identifies solar
PV development opportunities, and evaluates the strategies of developers,
system integrators, and utilities.
- Regulators reshape feed-in tariff incentives: In domino-like
fashion, European regulators are revising their feed-in tariff mechanisms to
keep pace with PV technology' s rapid cost declines 30% to 50%). However, the
policy shifts in Germany, Spain, the Czech Republic, and Italy are sparking
unintended boom and bust cycles as developers rush to capture higher tariff
rates before planned feed-in tariff reductions. The most nimble companies will
be the most successful in the near-term.
- Scaling markets attract the attention of leading renewables
players: While previously the domain of small, residential system
integrators, the PV industry in Europe has begun to draw the interest of large
utilities, IPPs, and investors that have traditionally considered PV too small
for their portfolios. To their competitive advantage, they are leveraging
their broader continental presence and stronger balance sheets to land
projects across Europe. Key to this transformative strategy are scaling
rooftop opportunities in Spain, Italy, France, the Czech Republic, and Belgium.
- Falling PV costs reshape competitive landscape: Rapid PV system
cost declines and global competition are forcing strategic shifts across the
value chain as companies seek to solidify their positions in a
highly-fragmented market. While entrenched technology suppliers are migrating
downstream into development to secure channels to market, leading utilities
and IPPs are increasingly sourcing modules on the spot market. Adding to the
pressure is the growing influence of Chinese suppliers that continue to
capture market share.
STUDY HIGHLIGHTS:
Europe PV Market Analysis
- Maturing Markets: Germany
- Scaling Markets: Spain, Italy, France,
Belgium, Czech Republic, Greece
- Emerging Markets: Portugal, Turkey, Croatia, Austria, Bulgaria, Slovakia,
Slovenia, United Kingdom, Ireland
Europe PV Market Forecasts Through 2025
- Europe PV Market Forecasts: 2010-2025
- German PV Forecasts
- Southern Europe PV Forecasts
- Northern Europe PV Forecasts
- Central and Eastern Europe PV Forecasts
Europe Solar PV Market Segmentation
(Solar Resources, Regulatory Mechanisms, Permitting, Grid Connection, Market
Structure)
Competitive Analysis of Europe PV Developer Landscape
- Developer Strategies and Rankings
- Analysis of Europe PV development landscape analysis
Competitive Analysis of Europe PV Supply Landscape
- Technology Cost Analysis
- PV Supply Chain in Focus (Module Suppliers, Inverter Market, Tracker
Market)
European Solar PV Developer Rankings and Strategy Profiles
- Profiles of Top Developers
- Profiles of System Integrators
- Profiles Technology Promoters
- Profiles of Asian Suppliers
Europe PV Market Drivers and Inhibitors
- National Action Plans
- 2020 Targets
- PV Cost Trends
- Europe Renewable Policy Outlook
Table of Contents
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
II. EUROPE SOLAR PV MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1. Shifting Landscape Drives EU Growth
- Unstable Incentive Environment Creates Market on Edge
- National Action Plans Expected to Define PV Target
- Solar Plays Role in Meeting 2020 Targets
- 2. EU PV Market Landscape
- Solar Resources
- Regulatory Mechanisms
- Permitting
- Grid Connection
- 3. Economic Environment
- Solar PV Project Finance
- PV Cost-Competitiveness
III. EUROPE SOLAR PV MARKETS FORECASTS
- 1. Forecast Methodology
- 2. Underlying Europe Power Market Assumptions
- 3. Historical Trends in Europe PV Development
- 4. Europe PV Capacity Forecasts
- Germany Sets the Bar
- Southern Europe Emerges for Long-Term Growth
- Northern Europe Edges Forward
- Central and Eastern Europe Overachieve
- Siting Segmentation Forecasts
- Size Segmentation Forecasts
IV. EUROPE SOLAR PV MARKET SEGMENTATION
- 1. Market Development Trends
- Regulators Promote Rooftop Siting with Incentive Premiums
- Regulation, Permitting Driving Sustainable Commercial Rooftop Market
- Land Availability Defines Markets
- 2. PV Development Opportunities in Maturing European Markets
- Germany
- Market Efficiency Tested with Lower Tariff Rates
- Rooftops Drive German Market
- Large-Scale Systems Under Regulatory Pressure
- 3. PV Development Opportunities in Scaling Europe Markets
- Italy
- Discontinuous Permitting and Grid Connection Shapes Market
- Large Ground-Based Systems to Peak in 2010
- Steady Small-Scale Installations Drive Italian Growth
- Spain
- Regulators Shackle Spain' s PV Market
- Tariff Cap Prompts Speculative Permitting
- Spanish PV Struggles to Meet Rooftop Quota
- France
- Tariff Changes Set to Manage Expectations
- Government Tender Program to Drive 2010 Utility-Scale Development
- Belgium
- Flanders Driving Belgian Market Activity
- Commercial Rooftop Market Scales to Unprecedented Levels
- Czech Republic
- Czech Republic Pulls Back on PV Development
- Project Sizes Concentrate Around Mid-Range
- Greece
- Permitting Logjam Begins to Clear Financing Concerns Constrain Build-Out
- 4. PV Development Opportunities in Emerging Europe Markets
- Southern Europe
- Portugal Hobbled by Slow Regulatory Uptake
- Turkey on the Edge of Regulatory Decision
- Croatia PV Growth Capped at 1 MW
- Central and Eastern Europe
- Austria Grows at Measured Pace
- Bulgaria' s Big Plans are Beginning to Materialize
- Slovak Republic Limits Market to 120 MW
- Slovenia FIT Experiences Take-Off Issues
- The British Isles
- United Kingdom Launches FIT
- Irish PV Market Lacks Potential
- Other PV Market Opportunities
V. EUROPE PV DEVELOPMENT COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
- 1. Europe Solar PV Development Landscape
- System Integrators Emerge from Fragmented Rooftop Market
- International Expansion Key to Managing Risk
- Utilities Vie for Long-Term Stake in PV Market
- Technology Promoters Scale Development Strategies
- 2. Europe Solar PV Developer Rankings
- Leading Positions in Transition
- Europe PV Pipeline Analysis
- 3. Europe Development Strategies
- System Integrators Drive PV Market
- System Integrators Leverage Local Presence
- Commercial Rooftop Sector Driven by Key Partnerships
- Large-Scale System Deployment Limited to a Few Players
- Technology Promoters Reach Downstream
- Manufacturers Strengthen Channel to Market Through Development
- Leading Power Equipment Suppliers Position for Share of PV Market
- Europe Utilities Substantiate Commitment to PV
- EDF, Enel Leverage Downstream Investments in Development Strategies
- Northern Europe Utilities Seek PV Ownership
- 4. System Integrators
- 9REN
- Aerowatt
- AES Solar
- Akuo Energy Group
- Beck Energy GmbH
- BIOSAR Energy S.A.
- Centrosolar Group AG
- Colexon Energy AG
- Conergy AG
- Energy 21 a.s.
- Enfinity NV
- Enerqos S.p.A.
- ErgyCapital S.p.A.
- ESPE Rinnovabili S.r.l.
- Essentium Group
- Fotowatio Renewable Ventures
- Gehrlicher Solar AG
- GEOSOL GmbH
- Gestamp Asetym Solar S.A.
- Green Yellow Holding
- Grupo Heliosolar
- Grupo Enerpal
- IBC Solar AG
- Invictus NV
- juwi solar GmbH
- Kerself S.p.A.
- K.R. Energy S.p.A.
- Marseglia Group
- Moncada Energy Group S.r.l.
- Montealto Energia S.L.
- Nobesol Levante S.L.
- OPDE S.L.
- Phoenix Solar AG
- Photosol
- ProEner Group
- Ralos New Energies AG
- Recurrent Energy
- relatio PV GmbH
- Renovalia Energy S.A.
- S.A.G. Solarstrom AG
- Scatec Solar AS
- Sechilienne-Sidec
- Sinosol AG
- Solairedirect
- Solarhybrid AG
- Solarig S.L.
- Solarparc AG
- Solea AG
- Sorgenia S.p.A.
- SunEdison
- Survey Digital Ltd.
- Tauber Solar Management GmbH
- TerniEnergia S.p.A.
- Tozzi Renewable Energy S.p.A.
- T-Solar
- Voltalia
- 5. Utilities
- EDF Energies Nouvelles
- Electrabel GDF SUEZ
- Enel Green Power S.p.A.
- E.ON AG
- Iberdrola S.A.
- PPC Renewables S.A.
- Statkraft
- 6. Technology Promoters
- Q-Cells SE
- Siliken S.A.
- Solaria Energia y Medio Ambiente S.A.
- Solon SE
- SunPower Corp.
VI. EUROPE SOLAR PV TECHNOLOGY SUPPLY COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
- 1. Solar PV Technology Supply Landscape
- Chinese Manufacturers Establish Cost Leadership
- Capacity Expansions Continue
- Spotlight on Rooftop Designs
- 2. PV Cost Analysis
- Europe PV System Costs Tied to Incentives
- PV Module Cost Trends
- 3. PV Supply Chain in Focus
- Module Market in Transition
- Thin Film, Emerging Technologies Gain Traction
- European Manufacturers Leverage Advantages of In-Market Manufacturing
- German Players Receive Boost from Government Grant Program
- French Market Nurtures BIPV Niche
- Inverter Market Maintains Fragmented
- Germans Dominate Inverter Market Inverter Capacities Scale
- Tracker Market in Transition
- Tracker Suppliers Face New Market
- Tracker Manufacturers Leverage Other Value-Added Services
- PV Module Manufacturers
- First Solar
- Suntech Power Holdings
- Yingli Green Energy
- Trina Solar
- Sharp Electronics
- Canadian Solar
- Solarfun Power Holdings
- SunPower Corp.
- SolarWorld
- Kyocera
LIST OF EXHIBITS
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 1. EU FIT Impacts on Solar PV Build-Out: 2004 - 2010
- 2. EU Near-Term Solar PV Incentive Visibility by Country
- 3. System Cost Trends by Country
- 4. Europe Commercial Rooftop Solar PV Market Potential
- 5. Europe Solar PV Market Share by Developer Type: 2004 - 2010
- 6. Europe Solar PV Small-Scale Projects: 2006 - 2009
- 7. Europe Solar PV Diversification Among Top Developers by Country:
2009 - 2010
- 8. Top 30 Europe Solar PV Developers by Additions: 2009 - 2010
- 9. Top Module Manufacturers Average Selling Price vs. Efficiency
- 10. Top PV Module Manufacturers by Capacity
- 11. Inverter Manufacturing Capacities
- 12. Europe PV Forecasts: 2010 - 2025
II. EUROPE SOLAR PV MARKET ENVIRONMENT
- 1. EU FIT Impacts on Solar PV Build-Out (€ /kWh, MW): 2004 -
2010
- 2. EU Renewable Technology Cost Evolution (€ /MWh): 2009 - 2020
- 3. EU Near-Term Solar PV Incentive Visibility by Country (MW)
- 4. EU National Solar PV Targets (MW): 2020
- 5. EU Energy Mix (Percent): 2020
- 6. Market Landscape Definitions
- 7. Europe Solar Resource Overview (kWh/kW)
- 8. Europe Solar Resource Distribution (kWh/kW)
- 9. Europe PV Regulatory Mechanisms Overview (€ /kWh)
- 10. Europe PV Permitting Overview
- 11. Europe PV Grid Connection Overview
- 12. Europe Financial Environment Overview
- 13. EU Forecasted Grid Parity (€ /kWh): 2010 - 2023
III. EUROPE SOLAR PV MARKETS FORECASTS
- 1. Forecasted 2025 PV Market Landscape
- 2. EER Three-Phase Forecast Methodology Overview
- 3. Europe PV Forecast Core Assumptions
- 4. Installed Capacity by Country
- 5. Europe PV Forecasts: 2010 - 2025
- 6. German PV Forecasts
- 7. Southern Europe PV Forecasts
- 8. Northern Europe PV Forecasts
- 9. Central and Eastern Europe PV Forecasts
- 10. Siting Segmentation Forecast of Additions in the Top 10
Markets: 2008 - 2015
- 11. Size Segmentation Forecasts of Top 10 Markets: 2008 - 2015
IV. EUROPE SOLAR PV MARKET SEGMENTATION
- 1. Europe Solar PV Marketplace: 2004 - 2009
- 2. Europe Solar PV Market Saturation: 2009
- 3. Europe Rooftop Solar PV Incentives by Country
- 4. Europe Commercial Rooftop Solar PV Market Potential
- 5. Europe Ground-Based Solar PV Markets by Siting and Installed
Capacity: 2009
- 6. Germany Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 7. Germany Solar PV Project Economics Evolution: 2004 - 2011
- 8. Germany Solar PV Siting Segmentation: 2006 - 2010
- 9. Germany Solar PV Additions by Size and Region: 2009
- 10. Italy Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 11. Europe Installed Solar PV Capacity by Region: 2008 and 2010
- 12. Italy Ground-Based Solar PV Siting Share: 2005 - 2012
- 13. Italy Solar PV Segmentation by Size: June 2006 - March 2010
- 14. Spain Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 15. Spain Solar PV Market Overview: 2003 - 2020
- 16. Spain Solar PV Pre-registration Results: Q1 2009 - Q1 2010
- 17. Spain Rooftop Solar PV Quota
- 18. France Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 19. France Solar PV Regulatory Strategy: Q2 2007 - Q4 2009
- 20. France Solar PV Tender Program
- 21. Belgium Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 22. Belgian Solar PV Market Overview: 2009 - 2020
- 23. Belgian Rooftop Solar PV System Segmentation: 2009 and 2010
- 24. Czech Republic Solar PV Market Snapshot: 2003 - 2010
- 25. Czech Republic Solar PV Market: 2006 - 2018
- 26. Czech Republic Solar PV Project Size: 2004 - 2009
- 27. Greece Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 28. Greece Solar PV Market Overview
- 29. Greece Solar PV Project Financing Constraints
- 30. Portugal Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 31. Turkey Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 32. Croatia Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 33. Austria Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 34. Bulgaria Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 35. Slovak Republic Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 36. Slovenia Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 37. United Kingdom Solar PV Market Snapshot
- 38. Ireland Solar PV Market Snapshot
V. EUROPE PV DEVELOPER COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
- 1. Europe Solar PV Market Share by Developer Type: 2004 - 2010
- 2. Europe Solar PV Small-Scale Projects: 2006 - 2009
- 3. Europe Solar PV Diversification Among Top Developers by Country:
2009 - 2010
- 4. Europe Utility PV Positions by Supplier (MW)
- 5. Europe Solar PV Technology Promoters' Development Role: 2007 -
2010
- 6. Top 30 Europe Solar PV Developers by Additions: 2009 - 2010 (MW)
- 7. Top 30 Europe Solar PV Developers by Announced Pipeline Capacity
(MW)
- 8. Europe Solar PV Value Chain
- 9. Europe Solar PV Domestic Developer Market Share by Country (%)
- 10. Key Europe Solar PV Commercial Rooftop Partnerships (MW)
- 11. Europe Solar PV Top 20 System Integrators with Projects Over 5
MW in Size, by Country
- 12. Europe Solar PV Top 20 Technology Promoters by Operational
Capacity (MW)
- 13. Europe Solar PV Power Equipment Supplier Positioning on PV
Value Chain: 2009 - 2010
- 14. Enel and EDF Solar PV Value Chain and Capacity: 2007 - 2012 (MW)
- 15. Northern Europe Utility Solar PV Activity: 2001 - 2010
VI. EUROPE SOLAR PV TECHNOLOGY SUPPLY COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS
- 1. Europe PV Supply Landscape
- 2. Top Module Manufacturers Average Selling Price vs. Efficiency
- 3. Top PV Module Manufacturers by Capacity
- 4. Select Rooftop Technology Choices Based on Development Conditions
- 5. System Cost Trends by Country
- 6. PV System Cost Build-Up
- 7. Top 15 Europe PV Module Suppliers of 2009
- 8. Thin Film Costs and Market Share Position
- 9. In-Market Manufacturing in Key Europe PV Markets
- 10. German Manufacturing Grant Initiative
- 11. French Module Manufacturers Fill BIPV Niche
- 12. Inverter Manufacturing Capacities
- 13. Average Inverter Capacity Deployments
- 14. Simplified Cash Flow Models of Tracking vs. Fixed 1 MW
Installations
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