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OLED General Lighting Market Analyst & Forecast - January 2013

This ElectroniCast report provides a 2012-2022 market forecast of the worldwide consumption of Organic Light Emitting Diodes (OLEDs) used in General Lighting applications. The OLEDs defined in this report are often referred to as OLED devices, OLED light sources, OLED panels or sub-panels, and OLED tiles.

OLED Description

An organic light-emitting diode (OLED) is a light-emitting diode (LED) in which the emissive electroluminescent layer is a film of organic compounds, which emit light in response to an electric current. This layer of organic semiconductor material is situated between two electrodes. Generally, at least one of these electrodes is transparent.

General Lighting Applications

The definition for General Lighting in this particular study report is - lighting that is used to provide the main illumination of an area. ElectroniCast includes Directional Lighting, Supplementary Lighting and Architectural Lighting in the General Lighting category; however, “architainment” lighting, such as large display units are not considered in the General Lighting segment. OLED panels/tiles used in vehicles, wearable/clothing, signage, displays, signals, decorative Christmas/holiday lighting are not included in the market forecast data for this study.

The increasing development of OLED technology in General Lighting is indeed encouraging, driven by the architectural lighting industry; therefore, full cooperation and partnerships with between the OLED device manufacturers and the architectural industry is of paramount importance, based on analysis by ElectroniCast Consultants. Since OLEDs can be fashioned onto large surfaces, they are a viable alternative to fluorescent tubes for building lighting or other applications.

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that lighting for buildings accounts for more than 20 percent of U.S. energy use. Over the next 20 years, the agency estimates that widespread adoption of LED and OLED lighting could reduce electricity demands 60 percent and prevent almost 260 metric tons of carbon emission.

OLED Level Quantified in the ElectroniCast Study

Below in particular, are three levels (or “food chain”) pertaining to the OLED marketplace. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for “Level 2”

Level 1 - Organic Materials (layers), anode and cathode

Level 2 - OLED (without electronics and driver)

Level 3 - OLED Module, one or more panels with control circuits, other value added components

OLED devices will require value-added components, complete with the electronics (plugs and wires), driver integrated circuits, and possible structural packaging (cap, metallic/plastic panel frames). Also, these packaged/equipped OLED modules will typically be available as part of other value-added product, such as lamp-holders/ fixtures. Therefore, it is important to note that this market forecast data only quantifies the OLED device (sometimes referred to as a tile, light source, panel or sub-panel) and not the complete module, lamp/fixtures or other value-added product(s).

This report provides the market data by the following regional segments and sub-regions:

  • Global (Total)
    • America
      • United States and Canada
      • Latin America
    • EMEA
      • Northern Europe
      • Southern Europe
      • Western Europe
      • Eastern Europe
      • Middle East and Africa
    • APAC
      • People's Republic of China (PRC)
      • Japan
      • Republic of Korea (ROK)
      • Rest of APAC

This report provides the 2012-2022 forecast by the following functions:

  • Consumption Value: US$, Million
  • Quantity: Number of square meter (m2) in Millions
  • Average Selling Prices: ASP US$, per square meter

ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the lighting industry, plus - R&D and manufacturing, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of lighting general illumination products. The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics.

The interviews were conducted principally with:

  • Lighting Designers/Installers concerns, engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of OLED and LED lighting and related equipment, as well as other lighting technologies.
  • Design group leaders, engineers, marketing personnel and market planners at major users and potential users of OLEDs and LEDs and lighting.
  • Other industry experts, including those focused on standards activities, trade associations, government and investments.

Beyond the “light-bulb” Mentality

The ElectroniCast market opportunity analysis (MOA) shows the OLED panel market should not be limited to (only) lamps and typical (conventional) lamp fixtures for general lighting (table lamps, wall/ceiling fixtures). ElectroniCast assumes that the OLED panel general-lighting market will grow beyond the “light-bulb” mentality to a broad base of applications, which currently may not even be in the idea-stage. Applications that have been mentioned by industry participants include (but not limited to) OLED incorporated into the following applications; however, to fall under the General Lighting definition the illumination of an area must be the primary purpose of the OLED lighting source:

  • Windows/Skylights
  • Wall panels or wall panels; Mirrors with light function
  • Flooring/Steps-stairs
  • Furniture, structural and roadside lighting
  • Other (almost endless possibilities)

According to ElectroniCast, there is enough overall OLED interest and activity in 2013 by substantial leading lighting competitors with existing capable manufacturing capabilities, working with evolving technology, to pushing for “mass-production”. Also, industry players have been very active in establishing the required strategic supplier and IP agreements, as well as progressing in sales/distribution channel (planning) strategy.

Therefore, the stage is set for a “Build-it and They Will Come” marketing strategy. The question is, how many customers will come and when. At the same time, other (competing) lighting solutions already work, have substantial customer base and established sales/distribution channels, occupying store footprint; therefore, OLED will need to find unique style/designs to provide a common-sense approach to providing lighting solutions that the other technologies do not currently provide.

The market for OLEDs used in General Lighting is relatively new and it is still open for new competitors and brands. ElectroniCast forecasts that the Asia Pacific (APAC) region will maintain control of the leadership role in relative market share, driven by Japan's early implementation, as well as strong take-rates in the Republic of Korea and in the People's Republic of China (China is emerging as an important market for OLEDs).

The Asia Pacific (APAC) region led in the worldwide consumption value of General Lighting OLEDs in 2012. According to ElectroniCast, the American region, led by the United States, will eventually move into the second-place position, growing at a faster annual pace versus the Europe, Middle East and Africa region (EMEA) during the 2012-2017 timeframe and faster than EMEA and APAC during the second-half of the forecast period (2017-2022).

The average selling prices (ASPs) are forecast to decrease substantially as the devices become more readily available to the open market in a competitive environment. Since the ASPs are forecast for such a steep decline, some of the overall consumption values for 2013 are forecast to be relatively flat compared to 2012. Generally, the consumption value is forecast to increase with strongly rising quantity growth partially offset by declining average prices.

OLEDs Used in General Lighting
Global Consumption Value Regional Market Share (%) in 2012

Source: ElectroniCast Consultants

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1. Overview
  • 1.2. SSL Lamps & Light Fixtures Used in General Lighting

2. OLED - Technology

3. OLED General Lighting Market Forecast

  • 3.1. Overview
  • 3.2. America Market Forecast
  • 3.3. EMEA Market Forecast
  • 3.4. APAC Market Forecast

4. OLED General Lighting Competitors & Related Entities

5. Market Research Methodology

6. Definitions and Standards

  • 6.1. Acronyms, Abbreviations, and General Terms
  • 6.2. Lighting Standards and Protocols

7. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Data Base - Introduction/Explanation of Excel Worksheets

  • 7.1. Overview
  • 7.2. Tutorial of the Excel Worksheets

List of Tables

  • 1.1.1. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Global Forecast, By Region ($ Million)
  • 1.1.1. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Global Forecast, By End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 2.1. Comparison of Light Emission Efficiency and Light Emission Life
  • 3.1.1. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Global Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.1.2. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Global Forecast, by End-User Group (Million Square Meters)
  • 3.1.3. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Global Forecast, by End-User Group (ASP per Square Meter)
  • 3.1.4. General Characteristics of OLEDs
  • 3.1.5. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Global Forecast, by Region ($ Million)
  • 3.1.6. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Global Forecast, by Region (Million Square Meters)
  • 3.1.7. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Global Forecast, by Region (ASP per Square Meter)
  • 3.2.1. OLEDs Used in General Lighting American Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)
  • 3.2.2. OLEDs Used in General Lighting American Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.2.3. OLEDs Used in General Lighting USA/Canada Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.2.4. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Latin American Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.2.5. Latin American Demographic Trends
  • 3.3.1. European Sub-Regions as identified by the United Nations Geo-scheme
  • 3.3.2. Population in Northern Europe, by Country
  • 3.3.3. Population in Southern Europe, by Country
  • 3.3.4. Population in Western Europe, by Country
  • 3.3.5. Population in Eastern Europe, by Country
  • 3.3.6. OLEDs Used in General Lighting EMEA Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)
  • 3.3.7. OLEDs Used in General Lighting EMEA Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.3.8. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Northern Europe Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.3.9. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Southern Europe Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.3.10. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Western Europe Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.3.11. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Eastern Europe Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.3.12. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Middle East/Africa Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.4.1. OLEDs Used in General Lighting APAC Forecast, by Sub-Region ($ Million)
  • 3.4.2. OLEDs Used in General Lighting APAC Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.4.3. OLEDs Used in General Lighting People's Republic of China Forecast, End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.4.4. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Japan Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.4.5. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Republic of Korea Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)
  • 3.4.5. OLEDs Used in General Lighting Rest of APAC Forecast, by End-User Group ($ Million)

List of Figures

  • 1.1.1. OLED Panels in General Lighting Global Market Forecast (Value Basis, $ Million)
  • 1.1.2. OLED Panels in General Lighting India Market Forecast (Quantity Basis, Million/Units)
  • 1.1.3. OLED Panels Used in General Lighting Global Market Forecast (ASP per Square Meter)
  • 1.1.4.a. OLED Lighting Panel
  • 1.1.4.b. OLED Lighting Control Circuit
  • 1.1.4cc. OLED Lighting Module
  • 1.1.5. Transparent OLED on Foil
  • 1.2.1. Samples of Lighting Fixture Types, using LEDs
  • 1.2.1. Samples of Lighting Fixture Types, using OLEDs
  • 2.1. OLED Layer Diagram with Glass Substrate
  • 2.2.a. OLED Layer Diagram: as anode
  • 2.2.b. OLED Layer Diagram: as HIL-layer
  • 2.3. PIN Doping Technology
  • 2.4. Blue OLED
  • 2.5. Fully Stretchable OLED
  • 2.6. High-Efficient Flexible OLED on Plastic
  • 2.7. Fabrication of Large-Area OLED Lighting Module
  • 2.8. Color-Tunable and Framed OLED Panel Modules
  • 2.9. OLED Modules
  • 2.10. Evolution of Research Emphasis during Technology Life Cycle
  • 3.1.1. Kitchen Under-Cabinet OLED-Based Lighting System
  • 3.1.2. OLED caster light for Broadcasting Studios
  • 4.1. OLED Desk/Table Lamp
  • 4.2. Fabrication of Large-Area OLED Lighting Module
  • 4.3. OLED Desk Lighting
  • 4.4. OLED Lighting Fixture
  • 4.5. OLED Lighting Fixture
  • 4.6.a. OLED Layer Diagram: as anode
  • 4.6.b. OLED Layer Diagram: as HIL-layer
  • 4.7. OLED Panels in Colors
  • 4.8. OLED Panel Units with External Power Unit
  • 4.9. Organic Electroluminescent (EL) Lighting Panel
  • 4.10. Detail of the OLED Panel
  • 4.11. Display - OLED Panel
  • 4.12. OLED Lighting
  • 4.13. Ultra-Thin Glass Sheet, Rolled into a cylinder
  • 4.14. OLED Lighting Panel
  • 4.15. Organic EL Display (OELD) Materials
  • 4.16. OLED-Based Desk Lamp featuring Carbon Fabric Materials
  • 4.17. Fabrication of Large-Area OLED Lighting Module
  • 4.18. Interactive OLED Panel Installation
  • 4.19. Packaging: Conventional LED and Flexible OLED
  • 4.20. Polymer OLED Test Cells
  • 4.21. Demonstrator of an OLED Panel
  • 5.1. ElectroniCast Market Research & Forecasting Methodology
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