Market Research Report - 224166
OLED Lighting Global Market Forecast 2015-2025
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An organic light-emitting diode (OLED) is a light-emitting diode (LED) in which the emissive electroluminescent layer is a film of organic compounds, which emit light in response to an electric current. This layer of organic semiconductor material is situated between two electrodes. Generally, at least one of these electrodes is transparent.
The definition for lighting in this study includes general lighting, which is used to provide the main illumination of an area. The lighting category also includes specialized lighting, such as directional, supplementary, and architectural lighting, as well as OLED panels/tiles used in vehicles for the main purpose of lighting. However, OLEDs used in signage, TVs, displays, and signals are not included in the market forecast data for this study.
The increasing development of OLED technology in lighting is indeed encouraging, driven by the architectural lighting industry; therefore, full cooperation and partnerships with between the OLED device manufacturers and the architectural industry is of paramount importance, based on analysis by ElectroniCast Consultants. Since OLEDs can be fashioned onto large surfaces, they are a viable alternative to fluorescent tubes for building lighting or other applications.
The United States Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that lighting for buildings accounts for more than 20 percent of U.S. energy use. Over the next 20 years, the agency estimates that widespread adoption of LED and OLED lighting could reduce electricity demands 60 percent and prevent almost 260 metric tons of carbon emission.
Below in particular, are three levels (or “food chain”) pertaining to the OLED marketplace. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for “Level 2”
OLED devices will actually use a value-added OLED product, complete with the electronics (plugs and wires), driver integrated circuits, and possible structural packaging (cap, metallic/plastic panel frames). Also, even further, these packaged/equipped panels/tiles (also known as OLED modules) will typically be available as part of other value-added product, such as lamp-holders/fixtures. Therefore, it is important to note that this market forecast data only quantifies the OLED device (sometimes referred to as a tile, light source, panel or sub-panel) and not the complete module, lamp/fixtures or other value-added product(s).
This report provides the market data by the following regional segments:
This report provides the forecast by the following functions:
ElectroniCast projects that the worldwide consumption value of selected lighting OLEDs will reach $144 million in 2015; consumption value is forecast to increase at an average annual growth rate of 74.8 percent to nearly $2.36 billion in 2020. The total value of OLED lighting is forecast an increase to $6.7 billion in the year 2023, before slipping to $5.544 billion in 2025. Quantity/unit volume is forecast to continue to climb through 2025; however, sharp decreases in average selling prices will eventually cause the overall market value to decrease. All values and prices in this report are at factory as-shipped levels, and are in current dollars, which include the effect of a forecasted 5 percent annual inflation rate over the forecast period.
According to ElectroniCast, there is enough overall OLED interest and activity in 2015 by substantial leading lighting competitors with existing capable manufacturing capabilities, working with evolving technology, to pushing for “mass-production”. Also, industry players have been very active in establishing the required strategic supplier and IP agreements, as well as progressing in sales/distribution channel (planning) strategy.
Therefore, the stage is set for a “Build-it and They Will Come” marketing strategy. The question is, how many customers will come and when. At the same time, other (competing) lighting solutions already work, have substantial customer base and established sales/distribution channels, occupying store footprint; therefore, OLED will need to find unique style/designs to provide a common-sense approach to providing lighting solutions that the other technologies do not currently provide.
Beyond the “light-bulb” Mentality The ElectroniCast market opportunity analysis (MOA) shows the OLED panel market should not be limited to (only) lamps and typical (conventional) lamp fixtures for general lighting (table lamps, wall/ceiling fixtures). ElectroniCast assumes that the OLED panel general-lighting market will grow beyond the “light-bulb” mentality to a broad base of applications, which currently may not even be in the idea-stage. Applications that have been mentioned by industry participants include (but not limited to) OLED incorporated into the following applications: