ElectroniCast LED Lamp General Lighting in the U.S.A. Market Forecast and Analysis

Introduction

ElectroniCast Consultants provides the research findings of their study of the United States consumption of Light Emitting Diode (LED) lamps (also known as “consumer-level bulbs”), which are used in luminaires in stationary/fixed location (non-vehicle/non-portable) solid-state lighting (SSL) General Lighting applications. The lamps are used in new fittings, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps.

General Lighting provides the main illumination of an area. In this study, we provide a market review for the year 2011 plus our forecast and analysis (2012-2016) of LED lamps used for general lighting, including interior and exterior decorative and functional lighting for residential, commercial and government areas.

For the purposes of this study, ElectroniCast Consultants includes Directional Lighting, Supplementary Lighting and Architectural Lighting in the General Lighting category. Lighting used in theaters, photography, newsgathering (TV broadcasts, film, similar) and even lighting used in nightclubs on the dance floor are considered general Lighting; however, lamps used in signage, displays and signal lighting are not included in the market forecast data for this study.

LEDs are used in both functional and decorative light fixtures, with an advantage of energy savings. Compared to incandescent lighting, LED-based lighting delivers visible light with reduced heat. In addition, its solid-state nature provides for greater resistance to shock, vibration, and wear, thereby significantly increasing its lifespan.

Below, are five levels (or “food chain”) pertaining to the LED marketplace. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for “Level 3”.

• Level 1 - The chip or die
• Level 2 - The Packaged LED
• Level 3 - Lamp (Consumer-Level Bulb, Globe, Linear Tube, Panel)
• Level 4 - Luminaire (light fixture/lamp holder/fitting)

This report provides the 2011 market data review and 2012-2016 forecast by the following functions:

• Consumption Value (US$)
• Quantity (number/units)
• Average Selling Prices ($, each)

The average selling prices (ASP) are based on the price of the LED lamp at the initial factory level (prior to FOB - Free On Board). The value is then based on the end-use application in the United States.

This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually over the past nine years, but updated through mid-March 2012. During the market research process, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the LED and lighting industry, plus - R&D and factory/manufacturing, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of LED and lighting illumination products.

Based on primary research (interviews and evaluations) with engineers and product planners, ElectroniCast Consultants can see ideas and then (eventually) concepts about 3-7 years before innovation solutions (products) are announced in the public domain. Once we feel confident that these ideas and concepts will become innovative solutions (new products), we set anticipated usage into the market forecast. Therefore, as we are looking as several years, many of the future products may not even be at the idea-stage yet. ElectroniCast Consultants, in effect, forecast lighting demand growth, which will drive demand for increased capability/capacity LEDs; therefore, we have expertise of what to look for. We help our clients find the next window of opportunity.

This market forecast of United States consumption is presented for six major lamp-type categories. The lamp categories, in turn, may have multiple sub-categories, which are determined by physical size of the lamp (also Watt equivalency in the Type-A category).

Note: lower-level products, which are indented in the list shown in Table 1, are summed-up to the higher-level product category stated above it.

Table 1
ElectroniCast Market Forecast Data Base Hierachy Structure
U.S.A. General Lighting LED Lamp Product Category List

Increasingly, the automatic assembly and test manufacturing process for LED solid-state lighting products allow for mass-production capability. In addition, over the next few years, the average selling prices of the SSL general lighting products will be driven lower, as a result of production efficiencies, yield improvements (aided by quality controls), competition (both market competition and technology competition), marketing/sales distribution improvements, and other factors.

The study process by ElectroniCast Consultants takes into account the following points:

• Standards (including general regulations & standards, environmental issues, etc.)
• Policies and schemes for promoting the penetration of LED lighting
• Industry trends in LED lighting fixtures
• Distribution Channel (DIY stores, other stores, Web-based, other)
• LED Lighting industry competitive environment

The use of LED-based lamps in SSL General lighting is driven by promised savings in maintenance/ labor, as well as “Green-Tech” (ecology-oriented) issues. The lamps are lamps are used in new construction, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps. The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is a key marketing dynamic relative to LED Lamps, which typically have a premium price point versus other lighting solutions. Some of the key elements incorporated in the cost of ownership for LED-based lamps vehicle include:

• Depreciation Costs (LEDs last longer)
• Energy Costs (LEDs use less energy)
• Repairs (Especially true as a comparison vs. Ballasts in fluorescent tubes)
• Funding programs and other government-based financial incentives
• Maintenance Costs (Lower labor costs/less lamp replacements)

Opportunity Costs are also in the TCO mix; since ElectroniCast takes into account that using LED (energy-efficient lighting and other carbon footprint/pollution issues) depicts the organization, which installs them, as a good corporate citizen.

In 2011, the United States consumption value of specified LED lamps, which are used in General Lighting, was $639.6 million. ElectroniCast forecasts the consumption value will reach $2.48 billion in the year 2016 representing an average annual growth rate of 31.2 percent (2011-2016).

In terms of consumption value, the Parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR) lamp is forecast with double-digit growth (2011-2016), the unit (quantity) growth will be partially offset by the price declines.

The Multifaceted Reflector (MR) compatible is forecast for very impressive growth, as the LED solution finds a way to provide equivalent brightness (versus the halogen MR lamp) and competitive pricing.

As we look at the A19 lamp segmented by Watt, the 60Watt equivalent LED-based lamp was the clear leader in 2011; however, the 100Watt equivalent LED lamp is forecast to take the leadership position next year in 2013 in terms of consumption value. The 100W equivalent lamp is a relatively newcomer to the market, making its debut in mid-2011.

The LED-based Linear (Tube) Lamp, which is an emerging competitor of the fluorescent tube is forecast to increase at a very impressive annual growth (2011-2016) in consumption value; however, even by 2016 the LED tube solution is forecast to make a relatively small impact on the monster fluorescent tube market, which is the main-stay of the American office building sector.

The street lamp category includes lamps specifically sold for the purpose of walkway, campus, parking-lot lamps, which are similar (exterior) lamps, which are typically affixed on a pole/mast (there are exceptions to the rule - for example roadway lighting in tunnels).

Figure 1
LED Lamps Used in Solid-State Light (SSL) General Lighting
U.S.A. Market Forecast

Source: ElectroniCast Consultants

• Publication Date: March 26, 2012
• Total Number of Pages: 584
• Also Included: Excel worksheets and PowerPoint Slides

  Table of Contents

  Table of Contents

  1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1. Overview
  • 1.2. LED Lamps & Light Fixtures Used in General Lighting
  • 1.3. LED Chips Used in General Solid-State Lighting (SSL)

  2. LEDs - Technology Overview

  3. LED Lamp General lighting Consumption Forecast.

  • 3.1. Overview
  • 3.2. Parabolic Aluminized Reflector (PAR) LED Lamps
  • 3.3. General Service (A-Type): LED lamps
  • 3.4. Decorative LED Lamps (Globe, Fancy Round, Candle, other-Types)
  • 3.5. Multifaceted reflector (MR). Compatible LED Lamps
  • 3.6. Linear/Tube LED Lamps
  • 3.7. LED Lamps: Street-lighting/Parking-Lots/Campus/Parks/Similar

  4. Company Profiles of LED and Related Companies - (Over 290 Companies)

  5. Market Research Methodology

  6. Definitions and Standards

  • 6.1. Acronyms, Abbreviations, and General Terms
  • 6.2. Lighting Standards and Protocols

  7. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Data Base - Introduction/Explanation of Excel Worksheets

  • 7.1. Overview
  • 7.2. Tutorial of the Excel Worksheets

  List of Tables

  • 1.1.1. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Hierarchy Structure: LED Lamp Product Category List
  • 1.1.2. LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category ($ Million)
  • 1.1.3. LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category (Quantity/Units)
  • 1.1.4. LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category (ASP, $ Each)
  • 1.1.5. LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast, By End-User Category ($ Million)
  • 1.1.6. Typical Luminous Efficacies for Traditional and LED Sources
  • 1.1.7. Current Members of NGLIA
  • 2.1. LED Color Variety - Selected Examples
  • 2.1. LED Color Chart
  • 3.1.1. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Hierarchy Structure: LED Lamp Product Category List
  • 3.1.2. LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category ($ Million)
  • 3.1.3. LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category (Quantity/Units)
  • 3.1.4. LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category (ASP, $ Each)
  • 3.1.5. Calculation of the Cost of Manufacturing Facility Downtime
  • 3.1.6. Comparison of Lighting Technologies
  • 3.2.1. PAR Lamp Designation and Nominal Diameter
  • 3.2.2. PAR LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category ($ Million)
  • 3.2.3. PAR LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product (Quantity/Units)
  • 3.2.4. PAR LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product (ASP, $ Each)
  • 3.2.5. PAR LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By Product Category (all functions)
  • 3.2.6. PAR LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User Category ($ Million)
  • 3.3.1. General Service LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast (all functions)
  • 3.3.2. General Service LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User ($ Million)
  • 3.4.1. Decorative LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast (all functions)
  • 3.4.2. Decorative LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User ($ Million)
  • 3.5.1. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in General Lighting Australia Forecast, by Product (all functions)
  • 3.5.2. MR-Compatible LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User ($ Million)
  • 3.6.1. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, by Product (all functions)
  • 3.6.2. Linear/Tube LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User ($ Million)
  • 3.7.1. LED Street Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast, By End User ($ Million)
  • 7.1.1. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Database Product Category Hierarchy List
  • 7.2.1. ElectroniCast Market Forecast Database Application Category Hierarchy List

  List of Figures

  • 1.1.1. LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Value Basis, $ Million)
  • 1.1.2. LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity Basis, Million/Units)
  • 1.1.3. Single-die LED: 1000 lm at 100 lm/W at 3A
  • 1.1.4. LED Packaged Chip/Bulb
  • 1.1.5. LED Packaged Chip/Bulb
  • 1.1.6. LED Packaged Chip/Bulb Surface Mount Variations
  • 1.1.7. LED Packaged Chip/Bulb
  • 1.1.8. High Brightness LED Packaged Chip/Bulb
  • 1.1.9. Campus at Night with LED Lighting
  • 1.2.1. A19 Bulbs (Consumer-Level Bulb/LED Lamp)
  • 1.2.2. Obstruction Bulbs (Lamps) - Flashing - 138 red or amber LEDs
  • 1.2.3. LED Lamp - Down-light Retrofit Module
  • 1.2.4. Miscellaneous LED Lamps
  • 1.2.5. LED Light Bulb (Cool White)
  • 1.2.6. Complete Fixture and Replacement Bulb - Streetlight (Lamp)
  • 1.2.7. Samples of Lighting Fixture Types
  • 1.3.1. Diagram of a typical LED chip
  • 1.3.2. Diagram of a typical LED chip
  • 1.3.3. LED Chip Cross-Sectional Structure
  • 1.3.4. ESD Protection Diodes
  • 1.3.5. Electrostatic Discharge Example
  • 1.3.6. Improvement of Efficacy of Warm-White Light
  • 2.1. LED Chromatic Chart
  • 2.2. Evolution of Research Emphasis During Technology Life Cycle
  • 2.3. LED Chip: Metal Layer (Thin Film Technology)
  • 2.4. Vertical LED Chip
  • 2.5. AC LED Technology on a Wafer
  • 2.6. Ultra High Bright LED Chip
  • 2.7. Ultra-Thin LED
  • 2.8. Solid-State Lighting LED
  • 2.9. LED Module with High Light Quality
  • 2.10. Transparent and flexible inorganic, organic hybrid n-type: Thin Film Transistors (TFTs)
  • 2.11. Lumiramic Phosphor Technology: Thin Film Flip Chip (TFFC) technology
  • 2.12. Wire-to-Board LED Connector
  • 2.13. Next-Generation Light Emitting Diode Module
  • 2.14 Leaded RGB LED
  • 2.15. Vertically Conducting Advanced LED Structure
  • 2.16. AlGaInP LED Efficacy
  • 3.1.1. World Map - Cooperation on Reducing GHG Emissions
  • 3.1.2. LED-Based Operating Theater Lighting
  • 3.1.3. LED-Based Operating Theater Lighting
  • 3.1.4. LED-Based Operating Theater Lighting
  • 3.1.5. LED-Based Airfield Runway Edge Lighting (Solar Powered)
  • 3.1.6. LED-Based Solar Powered Airfield Light
  • 3.1.7. LED-Based Lighting: Coffee Shop
  • 3.1.8. Giordano Retail Outlets
  • 3.1.9. LED Technology for Stage Lighting
  • 3.1.10. Entertainment & Architectural Lighting: Multiple Color LED in a Surface-Mount (SMT) Package
  • 3.1.11. Color Mixer Reflector for LED Technology Lighting
  • 3.1.12. LED Technology for Under-Cabinet Lighting
  • 3.1.13. Production-Lighting: Small Rectangle LED Light Fixture
  • 3.1.14. Production Lighting: 8.3-inch LED Circular Spot
  • 3.1.15. Production Lighting: 14x14-inch LED Light Panel
  • 3.1.16. Production Lighting: LED Circular Fresnel Spot Fixtures
  • 3.1.17. 48-inch Fluorescent Replacement Style LED Light Fixture
  • 3.1.18. DIP T8 - Linear Tube Lamps With Plastic End-Caps
  • 3.1.19. SMD T8 and T5 - LED Linear Tube Lamps With Plastic End-Caps
  • 3.1.20. DIP-Type LED Linear Tube Lamps with Plastic End-Caps
  • 3.1.21. DIP-Type LED Linear Tube Lamps with Metal End-Caps
  • 3.1.22. SMD-Type LED Linear Tube Lamps with Metal End-Caps
  • 3.1.23. SMD-Type High-Output LED Linear Tube Lamps with Plastic End-Caps
  • 3.2.1. LED-Based PAR 30 Lamp
  • 3.3.1. General Service LED-based Lamp (A-Style Bulb Category)
  • 3.3.2. General Service/Globe LED Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast ($ Million)
  • 3.3.3. General Service/Globe LED Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity)
  • 3.3.4. General Service/Globe LED Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (ASP, $ ea)
  • 3.3.5. General Service A19 & “Other” Type-A LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast ($ Million)
  • 3.3.6. General Service A19 & “Other” Type-A LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast (Quantity)
  • 3.3.7. General Service A19 & “Other” Type-A LED Lamps in General Lighting U.S.A. Forecast (ASP,$ea)
  • 3.4.1. Decorative (Candle-Style) LED-based Lamp (C-Style Bulb Category)
  • 3.4.2. Decorative LED Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast ($ Million)
  • 3.4.3. Decorative LED Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity)
  • 3.4.4. Decorative Service/Globe LED Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (ASP, $ ea)
  • 3.5.1. 1W 12V GU5.3 / 2 Pin MR16 LED Replacement Lamp
  • 3.5.2. MR Compatible LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast ($ Million)
  • 3.5.3. MR Compatible LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity)
  • 3.5.4. MR Compatible LED Lamps SSL General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (ASP, $ each)
  • 3.6.1. Linear/Tube LED Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast ($ Million)
  • 3.6.2. Linear/Tube LED Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity)
  • 3.6.3. Linear/Tube LED Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (ASP, $ each)
  • 3.7.1. LED Street Lamps Undergoing Test Operations
  • 3.7.2. LED-Based Street Lights
  • 3.7.3. LED Street Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast ($ Million)
  • 3.7.4. LED Street Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (Quantity)
  • 3.7.5. LED Street Lamps General Lighting U.S.A. Market Forecast (ASP, $ each)
  • 4.1. PCB Assembly
  • 4.2. LED Backlit Display
  • 4.3. Rugged Touch Screen with NVIS Capability
  • 4.4. LED Down light with 102 Lumens per Watt Fixture
  • 4.5. LED Lighting Military Solutions
  • 4.6. LED Lighting in Railway Station
  • 4.7. LED Technology Safelight Design
  • 4.8. LED Lighting (water flow stream)
  • 4.9. NVIS/LED Control Panel
  • 4.10. Integrated Weapons Delivery System
  • 4.11. Cockpit Modular Display/Panel
  • 4.12. Cockpit Large Area Display
  • 4.13. Traffic Lamp LED
  • 4.14. High Power LED Lamp
  • 4.15. Surface Mount Type LED
  • 4.16. Surface Mount Type LED
  • 4.17. Exterior Aircraft LED Lighting
  • 4.18. LED/CCD Barcode Readers
  • 4.19. Surface-Mount Multi-layer Ceramic Packages
  • 4.20. LED Linear Optical Array
  • 4.21. Solid-State NVIS Lamps
  • 4.22. LED Escalator Light
  • 4.23. Nanostructures Designed for Different Color Emission
  • 4.24. LED Array Lighting - Lamp
  • 4.25. Light-Measurement Device
  • 4.26. SSL LED: Replacement for Halogen Lamp in Spotlights
  • 4.27. LED-Based Digital Billboard (Signage/Display)
  • 4.28. Diagram of Backlight LED Drivers
  • 4.29. Diagram of Multifunction Backlight LED Drivers
  • 4.30. Diagram of White Backlight LED Drivers
  • 4.31. Diagram White Backlight LED Drivers
  • 4.32. Rotary Wing Aircraft Cockpit Display
  • 4.33. Ultra-Thin LED
  • 4.34. Quality Management System in LED Manufacturing
  • 4.35. Military and Harsh-Environment LEDs
  • 4.36. LED-Based Marine Biology Lighting Device
  • 5.1. Market Research & Forecasting Methodology

  ElectroniCast LED Lamp General Lighting in the U.S.A. Market Forecast and Analysis published by ElectroniCast in March 26, 2012. This report consists of 584 Pages and the price starts from US $ 4200.

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