ElectroniCast Consultants provides the research findings of their study of the
United States consumption of Light Emitting Diode (LED) lamps (also known as
“consumer-level bulbs”), which are used in luminaires in
stationary/fixed location (non-vehicle/non-portable) solid-state lighting
(SSL) General Lighting applications. The lamps are used in new fittings, as
well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps.
General Lighting provides the main illumination of an area. In this study, we
provide a market review for the year 2012 plus our forecast and analysis
(2013-2017) of LED lamps used for general lighting, including interior and
exterior decorative and functional lighting for residential, commercial and
For the purposes of this study, ElectroniCast Consultants includes Directional
Lighting, Supplementary Lighting and Architectural Lighting in the General
Lighting category. Lighting used in theaters, photography, newsgathering (TV
broadcasts, film, similar) and even lighting used in nightclubs on the dance
floor are considered general Lighting; however, lamps used in signage,
displays and signal lighting are not included in the market forecast data for
LEDs are used in both functional and decorative light fixtures, with an
advantage of energy savings. Compared to incandescent lighting, LED-based
lighting delivers visible light with reduced heat. In addition, its
solid-state nature provides for greater resistance to shock, vibration, and
wear, thereby significantly increasing its lifespan.
LED Level Quantified in the ElectroniCast Study
Below, are four levels (or “food chain”) pertaining to the LED
marketplace. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and
provide a market forecast for “Level 3”
Level 3 - Lamp (Consumer-Level Bulb, Globe, Linear Tube, Panel)
This report provides market data review by the following functions:
- Consumption Value (US$)
- Quantity (number/units)
- Average Selling Prices ($, each)
The average selling prices (ASP) are based on the price of the LED lamp at the
initial factory level (prior to FOB - Free On Board). The value is then based
on the end-use application in the United States.
Forecast Lighting Demand Growth
Based on primary research (interviews and evaluations) with engineers and
product planners, ElectroniCast Consultants can see ideas and then
(eventually) concepts about 3-7 years before innovation solutions (products)
are announced in the public domain. Once we feel confident that these ideas
and concepts will become innovative solutions (new products), we set
anticipated usage into the market forecast. Therefore, as we are looking as
several years, many of the future products may not even be at the idea-stage
yet. ElectroniCast Consultants, in effect, forecast lighting demand growth,
which will drive demand for increased capability/capacity LEDs; therefore, we
have expertise of what to look for. We help our clients find the next window
Increasingly, the automatic assembly and test manufacturing process for LED
solid-state lighting products allow for mass-production capability. In
addition, over the next few years, the average selling prices of the SSL
general lighting products will be driven lower, as a result of production
efficiencies, yield improvements (aided by quality controls), competition
(both market competition and technology competition), marketing/sales
distribution improvements, and other factors.
Market Forecast Product Categories
This market forecast of United States consumption is presented for eight major
lamp-type categories. The lamp categories, in turn, may have multiple
sub-categories, which are determined by physical size of the lamp (also Watt
equivalency in the Type-A category).
Note: lower-level products, which are indented in the list shown in
Table 1, are summed-up to the higher-level product category stated above it.
Market Forecast Data Base Hierachy Structure
U.S.A. General Lighting LED Lamp Product Category List
- Total Consumption: LED Lamps
- Parabolic aluminized reflector (PAR)
- PAR-Types: Other (Miscellaneous) Sizes
- General Service (Type - A)
- A19 / Other Type A (sizes)
- A19 (60W equivalent)
- A19 (75W equivalent)
- A19 (100W equivalent)
- Other A19 and Other Type A Sizes
- Decorative Types: Globe, Other (Candle, Fancy Round, Other)
- Globe Shape
- Other Decorative (Candle, Fancy Round, Other)
- Multifaceted reflector (MR) Compatible
- Linear / Tube
- < 1200mm
- > 1200mm (1200mm and longer)
- Street / Parking-lot / Campus / Similar (Parks, Walkways)
- Specialty High Bay/Flood (>=2500Lm)
- Specialty Flood/Miscellaneous (<2500Lm)
Market Opportunity Analysis - Market Dynamics
The study process by ElectroniCast Consultants takes into account the
- Standards (including general regulations & standards, environmental
- Policies and schemes for promoting the penetration of LED lighting
- Industry trends in LED lighting fixtures
- Distribution Channel (DIY stores, other stores, Web-based, other)
- LED Lighting industry competitive environment
The use of LED-based lamps in SSL General lighting is driven by promised
savings in maintenance/ labor, as well as “Green-Tech”
(ecology-oriented) issues. The lamps are lamps are used in new construction,
as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps. The
Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is a key marketing dynamic relative to LED
Lamps, which typically have a premium price point versus other lighting
solutions. Some of the key elements incorporated in the cost of ownership for
LED-based lamps vehicle include:
- Depreciation Costs (LEDs last longer)
- Energy Costs (LEDs use less energy)
- Repairs (Especially true as a comparison vs. Ballasts in fluorescent tubes)
- Funding programs and other government-based financial incentives
- Maintenance Costs (Lower labor costs/less lamp replacements)
Opportunity Costs are also in the TCO mix; since ElectroniCast takes into
account that using LED (energy-efficient lighting and other carbon
footprint/pollution issues) depicts the organization, which installs them, as
a good corporate citizen.
This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually since
2002, but updated through the middle of August 2013. During this period,
ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and
representative individuals in the LED manufacturing (materials, chips,
packaging, devices, associated parts/pieces, lamps and fittings/fixtures) and
building/facility management, local, state and federal government policy and
management, LED driver IC and micro-controllers, product distributors, retail
store management, import/export, and other. The interviews were conducted
- Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of LEDs
(chips, packaged LEDs, lamps, fixtures, controls, systems) as well as other
- Design group leaders, engineers, marketing personnel and market planners
at major users and potential users of LED lamps.
- Other industry experts, including those focused on standards activities,
trade associations, and investments.
The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract
size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards,
supplier competition and other topics. Customers and distributors also were
interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average
prices paid. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future
growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology
products were obtained.
The analyst then considered customer expectations of near term growth in their
application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends
and changes in government regulations in the United States, to derive
estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each
application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated
baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level
of each product and application.
A full review of published information was also performed to supplement
information obtained through interviews.
The following sources were reviewed:
- Professional technical journals and papers
- Trade press articles
- Technical conference proceedings
- Product literature
- Company profile and financial information
- Additional information based on previous ElectroniCast market studies
- Personal knowledge of the research team
In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of the United States and other
world region markets for light emitting diode products, it is essential that
the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the
technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this
report were qualified.
Nature of the Data
This report provides the consumption value, quantity and prices of LED
consumer-level bulbs (LED Lamps) use in selected applications, in the United
States of America.
The following details are important in interpreting the data presented in the
- Significant figures - rounding: The data have been rounded to an
appropriate number of decimal places. In some instances, this may result in
minor apparent inconsistencies at summary levels.
- Current dollars: All values in the Market Analysis and Forecast are
expressed in current US dollars. Therefore, growth rates and forecast values
include inflation, forecast to average 5 percent per year, 2012-2017.
The quantitative forecasts and value calculations for the LED Lamp Market
Forecast proceeded as follows:
- 1) The values for each year were based on known raw data or
calculated by formulae at the lowest data entry levels. The resulting values
were summed by formulae to successively higher levels data.
- 2) With the value forecasted for each LED lamp type in each
application, average annual growth rates for 2012-2017 were then calculated
from the forecast data.
- 3) For each LED lamp-type, analysis was performed and breakdowns
were forecast for consumption percentages for each year of the forecast. The
same was done for end-user group pricing, down to each LED lamp product-type.
ElectroniCast forecasts, as illustrated in the forecast data structure, are
developed initially at the lowest detail level, then summed to successively
higher levels. The background market research focuses on the amount of each
type of product used in each application in the base year (last year: 2012),
and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms
the base year data.
ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity
use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive,
economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term
forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts
depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward equipment usage
and economic payback.
Figure 1 further illustrates the research methodology regarding this study.
Market Research & Forecasting Methodology
Source: ElectroniCast Consultants