This is the ElectroniCast forecast of the consumption of light emitting diode-based bulbs (also known as LED lamps) in stationary (non-vehicle/non-portable) General Lighting applications in the United States of America. The lamps are used in new construction, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps.
This market forecast presented for the major lamp-type categories. The lamp categories, in turn, may have multiple sub-categories, which are determined by lamp the physical size of the lamp and/or primary use.
This study report also provides an overview of Standards related to LED lighting; policies and schemes for promoting the penetration of LED lighting; industry trends in LED lighting; sales/distribution channels; and company profiles of LED lighting industry manufacturers are provided.
The information is presented in easy-to-follow illustrations and text. LED technology overviews, trends and analysis are presented. Terms, acronyms, and abbreviations used are defined.
Last year in 2014, the consumption value of LED lamps in the United States, which are used in General Lighting, reached $1.22 billion; ElectroniCast forecasts that the consumption value will reach $3.36 billion in 2019. The consumption value is forecast to increase with strongly rising quantity growth partially offset by declining average prices.
General Lighting Stationary Applications The definition used by ElectroniCast for General Lighting is - lighting that is used to provide the main illumination of an area. ElectroniCast includes Directional Lighting, Supplementary Lighting and Architectural Lighting in the General Lighting category. In 2015, "architainment lighting" - a blend of architectural and event lighting has been added to the General Lighting segment. LED lamps used in theaters, photography, news-gathering (TV broadcasts, film, similar) and even lighting used in nightclubs on the dance floor and in operation rooms (surgery) are also included in the General Lighting application.
LED lamps used in signage (digital sign boards) and displays (back-lighting units for LCD/other screens) are not included in the General Lighting segment; however, Lamps used in display windows or display cases (for example: retail store displays) are now included in the General Lighting segment. LEDs in signals (for example traffic signals), portable flashlights (torches) and decorative Christmas/holiday lighting are not included in the market forecast data for this study.
Below, are five levels (or "food chain") pertaining to the LED market. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for "Level 4"
This report provides the 2014-2019 market forecast data by the following functions:
The ElectroniCast LED Lamp General Lighting Market Forecast is built up from specific segments. The major lamp (product) categories are shown in Table 1.
The ElectroniCast LED Lamp General Lighting Market Forecast is built up from specific segments. The major lamp (product) categories are shown in Table 1. This market forecast of consumption in the United States of America is also presented for three major End-User categories:
Primary Research This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually over the past several years, but updated through the middle of February 2015. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the LED manufacturing (materials, chips, packaging, devices, associated parts/pieces, lamps and fittings/fixtures) and building/facility management, local and federal government policy and management, LEDs, LED Lamps, LED luminaire/fixtures, LED driver IC and micro-controllers, product distributors, retail store management, import/export, and other. The interviews were conducted principally with:
Secondary Research A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources were reviewed:
Bottom-up Methodology ElectroniCast forecasts, as illustrated in the forecast data structure, are developed initially at the lowest detail level, then summed to successively higher levels. The background market research focuses on the amount of each type of product used in each application in the base year (2014), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data. ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward equipment usage and economic payback.
Cross-Correlation Increases Accuracy The quantities of packaged LEDs, LED Driver ICs, LED materials/wafer/die/chips, LED Lamps and LED fixtures (luminaries) and other LED-based components, manufacturing processes/quality control/yields, and end-use products used in a particular application are interrelated. Since ElectroniCast conducts annual analysis and forecast updates in each LED component field, accurate current quantity estimates are part of the corporate database. These quantities are cross-correlated as a "sanity check".
ElectroniCast, each year since 2002, has conducted extensive research and updated their forecasts of several LED lighting categories. As technology and applications have advanced, the number of component subsets covered by the forecasts has expanded impressively.
The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid 1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast.
7.1 Overview 7.2 Tutorial of the Excel Worksheets
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