ElectroniCast Consultants provides the research findings of their study of the United States consumption of Light Emitting Diode (LED) lamps (also known as “consumer-level bulbs”), which are used in luminaires in stationary/fixed location (non-vehicle/non-portable) solid-state lighting (SSL) General Lighting applications. The lamps are used in new fittings, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps.
General Lighting provides the main illumination of an area. In this study, we provide a market review for the year 2012 plus our forecast and analysis (2013-2017) of LED lamps used for general lighting, including interior and exterior decorative and functional lighting for residential, commercial and government areas.
For the purposes of this study, ElectroniCast Consultants includes Directional Lighting, Supplementary Lighting and Architectural Lighting in the General Lighting category. Lighting used in theaters, photography, newsgathering (TV broadcasts, film, similar) and even lighting used in nightclubs on the dance floor are considered general Lighting; however, lamps used in signage, displays and signal lighting are not included in the market forecast data for this study.
LEDs are used in both functional and decorative light fixtures, with an advantage of energy savings. Compared to incandescent lighting, LED-based lighting delivers visible light with reduced heat. In addition, its solid-state nature provides for greater resistance to shock, vibration, and wear, thereby significantly increasing its lifespan.
Below, are four levels (or “food chain”) pertaining to the LED marketplace. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for “Level 3”
Level 1 - The chip or die
Level 2 - The Packaged LED
Level 4 - Luminaire (lamp(s), light fixture/lamp holder/fitting)
This report provides market data review by the following functions:
The average selling prices (ASP) are based on the price of the LED lamp at the initial factory level (prior to FOB - Free On Board). The value is then based on the end-use application in the United States.
Based on primary research (interviews and evaluations) with engineers and product planners, ElectroniCast Consultants can see ideas and then (eventually) concepts about 3-7 years before innovation solutions (products) are announced in the public domain. Once we feel confident that these ideas and concepts will become innovative solutions (new products), we set anticipated usage into the market forecast. Therefore, as we are looking as several years, many of the future products may not even be at the idea-stage yet. ElectroniCast Consultants, in effect, forecast lighting demand growth, which will drive demand for increased capability/capacity LEDs; therefore, we have expertise of what to look for. We help our clients find the next window of opportunity.
Increasingly, the automatic assembly and test manufacturing process for LED solid-state lighting products allow for mass-production capability. In addition, over the next few years, the average selling prices of the SSL general lighting products will be driven lower, as a result of production efficiencies, yield improvements (aided by quality controls), competition (both market competition and technology competition), marketing/sales distribution improvements, and other factors.
This market forecast of United States consumption is presented for eight major lamp-type categories. The lamp categories, in turn, may have multiple sub-categories, which are determined by physical size of the lamp (also Watt equivalency in the Type-A category).
The study process by ElectroniCast Consultants takes into account the following points:
The use of LED-based lamps in SSL General lighting is driven by promised savings in maintenance/ labor, as well as “Green-Tech” (ecology-oriented) issues. The lamps are lamps are used in new construction, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps. The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is a key marketing dynamic relative to LED Lamps, which typically have a premium price point versus other lighting solutions. Some of the key elements incorporated in the cost of ownership for LED-based lamps vehicle include:
Opportunity Costs are also in the TCO mix; since ElectroniCast takes into account that using LED (energy-efficient lighting and other carbon footprint/pollution issues) depicts the organization, which installs them, as a good corporate citizen.
This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually since 2002, but updated through the middle of August 2013. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the LED manufacturing (materials, chips, packaging, devices, associated parts/pieces, lamps and fittings/fixtures) and building/facility management, local, state and federal government policy and management, LED driver IC and micro-controllers, product distributors, retail store management, import/export, and other. The interviews were conducted principally with:
The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics. Customers and distributors also were interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology products were obtained.
The analyst then considered customer expectations of near term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations in the United States, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application.
A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews.
In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of the United States and other world region markets for light emitting diode products, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report were qualified.
This report provides the consumption value, quantity and prices of LED consumer-level bulbs (LED Lamps) use in selected applications, in the United States of America.
The following details are important in interpreting the data presented in the study results/report:
The quantitative forecasts and value calculations for the LED Lamp Market Forecast proceeded as follows:
ElectroniCast forecasts, as illustrated in the forecast data structure, are developed initially at the lowest detail level, then summed to successively higher levels. The background market research focuses on the amount of each type of product used in each application in the base year (last year: 2012), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data.
ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward equipment usage and economic payback.
Figure 1 further illustrates the research methodology regarding this study.
Market Research & Forecasting Methodology
Source: ElectroniCast Consultants
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