Overview This ElectroniCast consultant service report provides a detailed forecast of North American consumption of MPO fiber optic connectors specifically in 40/100 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) networks, based on the IEEE standard, which was ratified on June 17, 2010. This 2015-2020 market forecast and analysis is presented for each of the following data rate, connector fiber count and media type:
40G Ethernet Network - MPO
100G Ethernet Network - MPO
MPO is the industry acronym for "multi-fiber push on." For the purpose of this ElectroniCast market forecast, the MPO and the MTP are grouped together. In addition to the market forecast, explanation and analysis is presented covering the 40/100GbE Standards, especially in regards to the IEEE 802.3ba. Fiber Optic Cable/ Transceiver Interface Analysis and vendor information is also provided, especially in regards to OM3/OM4 multimode, single mode and Transceivers (QSFP, CXP and CFP).
An explanation of the various applications and vendor information is provided, covering: Telecommunications, Server Computing/Data Centers (Network Attached Storage, SANs, High Performance Computer Clusters, Blade Servers, Switching, WDM, Routing and Aggregation, etc).
In 2006, the IEEE 802.3 working group formed the Higher Speed Study Group (HSSG) and found that the growth in bandwidth for network aggregation applications was outpacing the capabilities of networks employing link aggregation with 10 Gigabit Ethernet. (The IEEE 802.3ba standard was approved on June 17, 2010).
It is important to note that 10GbE is still migrating into the data centers. The 10GbE movement into the data centers will continue; however, "future-proofing" is expected to proceed with an accent (40/100G), especially in regards to network productivity as well as operating expenses (OPEX costs). Demand for 10/40/100G ports continues to grow at a rapid pace, driving the need for higher integration and lower power consumption.
Applications such as video, virtualization, cloud computing, switching/routing and convergence are driving the need for bandwidth expansion in data center, 4G/LTE networks, and FTTx deployments. We continue on the path of gradually developing of growth (and change) from 1G to 10G to 40G and 100G.
The need for 40/100G Ethernet at the core of the network initially, extending to the edge eventually, is driven by many factors, including elimination of aggregation protocols, bandwidth growth at the edge of the network, and the increase of for-pay services like HD IPTV, VoIP, cloud computing, and cloud storage. Mobile device applications are also driving horizontal interconnects, for example "server-to-server" or "storage-to-storage" instead of the traditional vertical interconnects, such as "client-to-server".
High-bandwidth applications such as server virtualization and cloud computing, fabric consolidation within the data center, and a greater demand for high-performance computing among end users continue to push the need for higher data-rate Ethernet
Information Base for the Market Forecast
Primary Research This study is based on analysis of information obtained through the middle of May 2015. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the fiber optics industry plus telecommunications, datacom, military/aerospace and other communication industries, instrumentation/ laboratory - R&D and factory/manufacturing, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of 40/100GbE MPO (and other) fiber optic connectors. The interviews were conducted principally with:
The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics.
Customers also were interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid, as a crosscheck of vendor estimates. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology products were obtained.
The analyst then considered customer expectations of near term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations in each geographical region, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application.
Secondary Research A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources were reviewed:
In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of the North American market for optical interconnect products, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report were qualified.
Bottom-up Methodology ElectroniCast forecasts, as illustrated in the forecast data base structure are developed initially at the lowest detail level, then summed to successively higher levels. The background market research focuses on the amount of each type of product used in each application in the base year (last year), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data.
ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward communication equipment usage and economic payback.
Cross-Correlation Increases Accuracy The quantities of network switches, optical fiber/cable, connectors, transceivers, transport terminals, optical add/drop MUX, VCSELs, couplers/splitters, isolators, photonic switches and other products used in a particular application are interrelated. Since ElectroniCast conducts annual analysis and forecast updates in each fiber optic related product field, accurate current quantity estimates in each application are part of this corporate database. These quantities are cross-correlated as a "sanity check."
ElectroniCast, each year since 1985, has conducted extensive research and updated their forecasts of each fiber optic component category. As technology and applications have advanced, the number of component subsets covered by the forecasts has expanded impressively. The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid 1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast.
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