Market Research Report - 245784
Fiber Optic Connector Global Market Forecast & Analysis November 2015
|Published||Content info||520 Pages|
|Fiber Optic Connector Global Market Forecast & Analysis November 2015|
|Published: November 10, 2015||Content info: 520 Pages||
This is the ElectroniCast forecast of global consumption and technology trends of fiber optic connectors and mechanical splices. We believe clients will find this report useful for planning of product and market development.
Historical estimated data are presented for 2014, plus the year-by-year forecast through 2019.
This 2014-2019 analysis and forecast and of American, EMEA and APAC regional consumption is presented for each significant fiber optic connector and mechanical splice used in selected communication applications. The forecast for each connector type, in turn, is segmented into each geographical region.
The information is presented in easy-to-follow illustrations and text. The reasons for the forecast trends are discussed. A global summary also is provided. The report also outlines the market research methodology followed There are over 140 vendors competing for the global fiber optic connector/ mechanical splice market, which ElectroniCast tracks in a product matrix showing participation in the following: connectors, cable assemblies, optical backplanes, and fiber optic installation apparatus; however, is dominated by a few companies that have a broad base in various interconnect products.
According to ElectroniCast, the worldwide fiber optic connector/mechanical splice consumption value reached $3.01 billion in 2014. Multimode fiber optic connectors led the consumption value in 2014. The use of multimode fiber optic connectors is forecast to increase at a rate of 10.2 percent per year.
The multimode LC small form factor connector is forecast to maintain the leadership position in relative market share throughout the forecast period, as well as increasing at an average annual rate of 17.1 percent.
Field-installable connectors for indoor and outdoor use are increasing in demand and thus are making a big-splash in the overall connector product lines of several competitors. Fiber optic connector-types, such as SC, ST, LC, FC and even the MPO and other possibilities are finding their way to the marketplace. Both mechanical-splice and fusion-splice technologies are meeting the requirements in the field-installable fiber optic product availability.
The ElectroniCast connector market forecast is built up from specific segments. The three major categories: single-mode, multimode and mechanical splices are further broken down as shown in Table 1.
The end applications for the selected fiber optic connectors discussed in this study report are itemized in Table 2. A substantial share of connector non-production use consists of connectors, which are procured and added to equipment, or systems that were installed in an earlier year. Examples include adding adapters and other connectors to expand patch panels, and connectors added to originally "dark" fibers. Non-production use ("Adjustments") also includes R&D usage, upgrade and replacement and inventory change.
This study is based on analysis of information obtained through the beginning of November 2015. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the fiber optics industry plus telecommunications, datacom, military/aerospace and other communication industries, instrumentation/ laboratory - R&D and factory/manufacturing, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of 40/100GbE MPO (and other) fiber optic connectors.
The interviews were conducted principally with:
The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics.
Customers also were interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid, as a crosscheck of vendor estimates. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology products were obtained.
The analyst then considered customer expectations of near term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations in each geographical region, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application.
A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources were reviewed:
In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of the North American market for optical interconnect products, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report were qualified.
ElectroniCast forecasts, as illustrated in the forecast data base structure are developed initially at the lowest detail level, then summed to successively higher levels. The background market research focuses on the amount of each type of product used in each application in the base year (last year), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data.
ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward communication equipment usage and economic payback.
The quantities of network switches, optical fiber/cable, connectors, transceivers, transport terminals, optical add/drop MUX, VCSELs, couplers/splitters, isolators, photonic switches and other products used in a particular application are interrelated. Since ElectroniCast conducts annual analysis and forecast updates in each fiber optic related product field, accurate current quantity estimates in each application are part of this corporate database. These quantities are cross-correlated as a “sanity check.”
ElectroniCast, each year since 1985, has conducted extensive research and updated their forecasts of each fiber optic component category. As technology and applications have advanced, the number of component subsets covered by the forecasts has expanded impressively. The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid 1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast.
Addendum: Market Forecast Data Base - Excel Spreadsheet
Addendum: Data Figures - PowerPoint