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Market Research Report
Cancer Drug Discoveries: what the future holds
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Cancer Drug Discoveries: what the future holds published by Espicom Business Intelligence in May, 2007. This report consists of 652 PAGES and the price starts from US $ 5690.
Abstract
This market analysis provides a unique examination of five key oncology
therapy areas: breast cancer, non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer,
prostate cancer, renal cancer.
Understand the prospects for this US$47.2 billion market
Unique market share, sales forecasts by product to 2012
A comprehensive examination of five major oncology areas:
- Breast cancer: Focusing on the changes in the gold standard, the
impact of novel therapies on treatment and the new drugs in development.
- Non-small cell lung cancer: Focusing on the launch of novel
therapies into the arena; are they dramatically changing the way NSCLC is
treated?
- Colorectal cancer: Focusing on the evolution of new treatment
regimes, the development of new formulations and advances in cancer vaccines.
- Prostate cancer: Focusing on current hormonal therapies, the
treatment of HRPCA and improvements in screening.
- Renal cancer: With up to 9 new launches by 2012, renal cancer is in
an exciting stage of development.
Critical competitive evaluation and scoring of current and upcoming products
For each therapy area the report provides:
THE FACTS
- Risk factors, how the disease affects patients, diagnosis and stages of
the disease
PATIENT STATISTICS
- Prevalence in the US, Europe and Japan
- Diagnosis and treatment rates
THE MARKET
- Global cancer market (all types)
- Global cancer market split by US, Europe and Japan (by specific cancer)
- The companies - market share 2006 and 2012
CURRENT TREATMENTS
- Interventions by type
- Unique five point competitive assessment of current therapies and
companies involved
- Sales forecasts by product 2006A-2012E
R&D: DRUGS IN PHASE II/III
- Focus on new classes of drugs and the companies involved
- Unique competitive assessment of current therapies and companies involved
- Sales forecasts by product from year of launch to 2012
COMPETITOR ANALYSIS - PRODUCTS & COMPANIES
- Winners and losers in the future
EXTENSIVE APPENDICES
- Statistics on key areas such as patient population, launch probability
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Figure 1.1 Global Cancer Drug Sales (including supportive care) in 2006
(US$47 billion)
- Figure 1.2 The Global Cancer Drug Sales - Regional Sales Split (2006)
- Figure 1.3. The Global Oncology Market - Cancer Sub-Type Sales Split (2006)
- Competitor Ratio Analysis - Drugs
- Figure 1.4: Drugs Analysed for Launch by 2012 - Therapeutic Category
- Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies
- Figure 1.5: Drugs Analysed for Launch by 2012 - Pharma and Specialist
Pharma Companies
- Figure 1.6: Drugs Analysed for Launch by 2012 -Biotechnology and
Biopharmaceutical Companies
BREAST CANCER
THE FACTS
- What is BC and How Does it Affect Patients?
- Figure 2.1: Schematic of the Breast
- Risk Factors
- Diagnosis
- Stages of the Disease
- Table 2.1: TMN Classification in BC
PATIENT STATISTICS
- Incidence, diagnosis rates & treatment; now and in the future
- Table 2.2: US prevalence of BC
- Figure 2.2: Cancer Incidence Rates and Cancer Death Rates for Women in the
US
- Table 2.3: European prevalence of BC
- Table 2.4: Japanese prevalence of BC
PATIENT MODEL
- The prevalence of people living with BC will increase by 20% by 2012
- Figure 2.3: BC Market Opportunities
- Table 2.5: Summary of Patient Population Forecasts in the Top 7 Countries
(2005-2012E)
- DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
- Figure 2.4: Impact of biomarker identification on BC patients
- Figure 2.5: Impact of biomarker identification on dose selection studies
in BC patients
- DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS
THE MARKET
GLOBAL CANCER MARKET
- Figure 2.6: Global Cancer Drug Sales (including Supportive Care) in 2006
(US$47.2 billion)
- Figure 2.7: Global Cancer Sales Forecasts 2004-2012
THE BREAST CANCER MARKET
- GLOBAL BC SALES SPLIT
- Figure 2.8: Global Sales Split (2006)
- Figure 2.9: Global BC Market by Therapy Class (2006)
- Figure 2.10: Global BC Market by Region (2012E)
- Figure 2.11: Global BC Market by Therapy Class (2012E)
- US market
- Figure 2.12: BC US Drugs Sales Split (2006)
- European market
- Figure 2.13: BC European Drugs Sales Split (2006)
- Japanese market
- Figure 2.14: BC Japanese Drugs Sales Split (2006)
- THE PLAYERS
- Figure 2.15: Market Share of BC Players by Sales (2006)
- Players and Products in 2006
- Figure 2.16: Global Market Share of BC Players by Sales (Dec 2012E)
- Players and products in 2012
CURRENT TREATMENTS
- Figure 2.17: Schematic of Treatment Options in BC
- SURGERY
- RADIATION
- HORMONAL THERAPY
- Figure 2.18: Hormones Affecting BC
- Table 2.6: Current Hormonal Therapies
- Table 2.7: Comparison of Leading Hormonal Therapies
- Current Products' Patent Exposure
- Table 2.8: Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
- Hormonal Therapies
- Based on the analysis, we have forecast 2005 and 2012E global sales
- Anti-Oestrogen Drugs
- Figure 2.19: Mode of Action of Anti-Oestrogens
- Nolvadex (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Faslodex (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 2.20: EFECT Trial Design - Fasoldex vs Aromasin
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Aromatase inhibitors
- Figure 2.21: Mode of Action of Aromatase Inhibitors
- Arimidex (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Femara (Novartis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Aromasin (Pfizer)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Figure 2.22: Pfizer' s pipeline addresses over 70% of tumour types
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- LHRH Agonists
- Zoladex (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
CHEMOTHERAPY
- Table 2.9: Chemotherapy Combinations Currently Prescribed in Stage I-III BC
- Leading Brands
- Current Products Patent Exposure
- Table 2.10: Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
- Taxanes
- Taxotere (sanofi-aventis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Taxol (Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Figure 2.23: BMS' oncology pipeline
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Abraxane (AstraZeneca/Abraxis BioScience)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Cytotoxic Agents
- Ellence (Pfizer)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Antimetabolites
- Xeloda (Roche)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Gemzar (Eli Lilly)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 2.24: a) Time-to-disease progression and b) overall response
rate of metastatic BC to Gemzar treatment
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
TARGETED THERAPY
- Avastin (Roche/Genentech/Chugai)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Table 2.11: Proposed Filing of New Indication for Avastin
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Herceptin (Roche/Genentech)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Figure 2.25: Mechanism of Action of Herceptin
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Table 2.12: Pivotal Clinical Trials With Herceptin
- Management/clinical expertise
- Figure 2.26: A) Herceptin Positive and Negative BC Patient Split and B)
Marketing Opportunities for Herceptin in Chemotherapy Patients
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Figure 2.27: Herceptin Has a Comprehensive Clinical Trial Programme to
Drive Future Sales Growth
- Table 2.13: Registration Programme for Herceptin
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Tykerb (GlaxoSmithKline)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Figure 2.28: GSK to Target a Broad BC Population With Tykerb
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Sales Forecast of Current BC Drugs
- Table 2.14: Global Sales of Leading BC Drugs 2005-2012E (US$ millions)
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT OF BC DRUGS
- Figure 2.29: 2006 Survey: Medicines in Development for Cancer
- Table 2.15: Products in Clinical Development for the Treatment of BC
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS
- Table 2.16: New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat BC
- Arzoxifene (Eli Lilly)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Atamestane (Intarcia Therapeutics)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Evista (Eli Lilly/Chugai Pharmaceutical/Daichii Sankyo)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 2.30: Evista - Invasive BC Incidence - STAR Trial
- Figure 2.31: Evista - Invasive BC Placebo Trials
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Ixabepilone (Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Oporia (Pfizer)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Patupilone (Novartis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Tesmilifene (YM BioSciences)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 2.32: Pivotal Phase III DEC Study Status
- Table 2.18: YM BioSciences Product Pipeline
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III BC DRUGS 2006E - 2012E
- Table 2.19: Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental BC Drugs (US$
million)
- Model assumptions
ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS
- Table 2.20: New Drugs in Phase II Development to Treat BC
- Iressa (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Figure 2.34: Mechanism of Iressa' s action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Omnitarg (Roche/Genentech)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- ZK-EPO (Bayer Schering Pharma)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Other Drugs of Interest
- AE37 (Generex)
- Axitinib (Pfizer)
- HER2/neu vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)
- IMC-11F8 (ImClone Systems)
- INGN 241 (Introgen Therapeutics)
- Recombinant human insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 (Insmed)
- Sprycel (Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- XRP6258 (sanofi-aventis)
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II BC DRUGS 2006E - 2012E
- Table 2.21: Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental BC Drugs (US$
million)
- Model assumptions
- Sales Forecast of New BC Drugs
- Table 2.22: Sales Forecasts of New Developmental BC Drugs US$ millions
(2005-2012E)
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - PRODUCTS
- Table 2.23: Rating Score for Clinical Rating
- Figure 2.37: CR Analysis of BC Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug
Class
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES
- Figure 2.38: CR Analysis of BC Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Company
- WINNERS & LOSERS
- Table 2.24: Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the BC Market by 2012
- Winners (alphabetical)
- Losers
DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS
- Table 2.25: BC Drugs Discontinued During Development
APPENDIX 1
- Diagnostic Assays
- HER2 diagnostics
- HER2/neu diagnostic testing
- Fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH)
- Chromogenic in situ hybridisation (CISH)
- InSite HER2/neu kit
- “Virtual Cancer Patient” technology - Optimata
- New diagnostic tests
- Future advances in diagnostics
APPENDIX 2
- Patient Model
- Table 2.26: Summary of US BC Patient Population Forecasts
APPENDIX 3
- Patient Model
- Table 2.27: Summary of Europe (Top 5) BC Patient Population Forecasts
APPENDIX 4
- Patient Model
- Table 2.28: Summary of Japan BC Patient Population Forecasts
APPENDIX 5
- Table 2.29: Global BC Drugs Sales 2005-2012E
APPENDIX 6
- Phase transition probability
- Table 2.30: Probability of Launch
APPENDIX 7
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
- Table 2.31: Key BC Drugs on the Market by 2012
GLOSSARY
BIBLIOGRAPHY
WEBSITE REFERENCES
ACRONYMS
COLORECTAL CANCER
THE FACTS
- What is CRC and how does it affect patients?
- Figure 3.1: Schematic of the Lower Gastrointestinal Tract
- Stages of the disease
- Table 3.1: Classification of CRC
- Figure 3.2: Incidence of CRC in US and Western Europe
- PATIENT STATISTICS
- Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future
- Figure 3.3: Estimated US Cancer Deaths (2006)
- Figure 3.4: Incidence of CRC in Men and Women in the US
- Table 3.2: European prevalence of BC
- Table 3.3: Japanese prevalence of BC
- PATIENT MODEL
- The addressable CRC market will increase by 12.5% by 2012
- Table 3.4: Summary of Global CRC Patient Population Forecasts in Top 7
Countries (2005A-2012E)
- DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
- DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS
GLOBAL CANCER MARKET
- Figure 3.5: Global Cancer Drug Sales (including Supportive Care) in 2006
(US$47 billion)
- Figure 3.6: Global Cancer Sales Forecasts 2004-2012
THE CRC MARKET
- GLOBAL CRC SALES SPLIT
- Figure 3.7: Global CRC Market by Region (2006)
- Figure 3.8: Global CRC Market by Therapy Class (2006)
- Figure 3.9: Global CRC Market by Region (2012E)
- Figure 3.10: Global CRC Market by Therapy Class (2012E)
- US market
- Figure 3.11: CRC US Drugs Sales Split (2006)
- European market
- Figure 3.12: CRC European Drugs Sales Split (2006)
- Japanese market
- The major players
- Figure 3.13: Market Share of CRC Players by Sales (Dec 2006)
- Players and Products in 2006
- Players and products in 2012
- Figure 3.14: Global Market Share of CRC Players by Sales (Dec 2012E)
CURRENT TREATMENTS
CHEMOTHERAPY
- Leading Brands
- Table 3.5: Comparison of Leading CRC Agents
- Current Products' Patent Exposure
- Table 3.6: Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
- Cytotoxics
- Antimetabolite
- Camptosar (Pfizer)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Eloxatin (sanofi-aventis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Xeloda (Roche)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Table 3.7: Xeloda Clinical Trial Programme
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Score = 43/50
IMMUNOTHERAPY
- Targeting VEGF
- Figure 3.15: Angiogenesis is the Formation of New Blood Vessels
- Figure 3.16: Agents Targeting the VEGF Pathway
- Targeting EGFR
- Current Products Patent Exposure
- ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
- Avastin (Roche/Genentech/Chugai)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 3.17: Expanding Avastin in Adjuvant Setting in CRC
- Management/clinical expertise
- Table 3.8: Ranking of specialist oncologist sales forces
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Table 3.9: Proposed Filing of New Indication for Avastin
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Erbitux (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck Serono/ImClone Systems)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Table 3.10: Clinical trial programme for Erbitux
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Vectibix (Amgen)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Figure 3.18: Schematic of EGFr inhibition in tumourgenesis
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005A-2012E
- Table 3.11: Sales Forecasts of Current Leading CRC Drugs (US$ millions)
- Model assumptions
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT OF CRC DRUGS
- Figure 3.19: 2006 Survey - Medicines in Development for Cancer
- Table 3.12: Products in Clinical Development for the Treatment of CRC
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS
- Table 3.13: New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat CRC
- Novel Therapy
- Recentin (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 3.20: Efficacy and Pharmacokinetic Profile of Recentin Compared
to Avastin
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Vatalanib (Bayer Schering Pharma/Novartis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Figure 3.21: Schematic of VEGF Receptors
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 3.22: Results of the CONFIRM 1 Trial - PFS
- Figure 3.23: Results of the CONFIRM 1 Trial - LDH
- Figure 3.24: Results of the CONFIRM 1 Trial - PFS in High LDH Patients
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Figure 3.25: Results of the CONFIRM 1 Trial - AEs
- Filings and approval
- and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Drug Enhancer
- CoFactor (ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Davanat (Pro-Pharmaceuticals)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Vaccine
- OncoVAX (Intracel Resources)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- TroVax (Oxford BioMedica/sanofi-aventis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Figure 3.26: TroVax
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III CRC DRUGS 2006A - 2012 E
- Table 3.14: Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental CRC Drugs (US$
millions)
- Model assumptions
ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS
- Table 3.15: New Drugs in Phase II Development to Treat CRC
- Alimta (Eli Lilly)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- A Phase II Trial of ALIMTA (Pemetrexed) Plus Irinotecan in Patients
Who Have Been Previously Treated For Metastatic Colorectal Cancer
- A Phase II Trial of ALIMTA (LY231514, Pemetrexed) Plus Oxaliplatin
Administered Every 21 Days for First-Line Treatment of Patients With
Advanced Colorectal Cancer
- A Phase II Study of Pemetrexed and Folic Acid Given Before Surgery
(Neoadjuvant Treatment) to Patients With Rectal Cancer
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- New Drug Formulations
- HyCAMP (Alchemia )
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Other Phase II Drugs of Interest
- ABT-751 (Abbott)
- Avicine (AVI BioPharma/SuperGen)
- Enzastaurin (Eli Lilly)
- EP-2101 (IDM Pharma)
- Ispinesib (GlaxoSmithKline/Cytokinetics)
- LE-SN38 (NeoPharm)
- Mapatumumab (GlaxoSmithKline/Human Genome Sciences)
- Nexavar (Bayer Schering Pharma/Onyx Pharmaceuticals)
- Rh-Apo2L (Aida Pharmaceuticals)
- rNAPc2 (Nuvelo)
- Sutent (Pfizer)
- Symadex (Xanthus)
- VQD-002 (VioQuest)
- VX-680/MK-0457 (Vertex/Merck & Co)
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II CRC DRUGS 2006A - 2012E
- Table 3.16: Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental CRC Drugs (US$
million)
- Model assumptions
- Sales Forecast of New CRC Drugs
- Table 3.17: Global CRC Sales of New Products 2006A-2012E (US$ millions)
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - PRODUCTS
- Figure 3.27: CR Analysis of CRC Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug
Class
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES
- Figure 3.28: CR Analysis of CRC Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Company
- WINNERS & LOSERS
- Table: 3.18: Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the CRC Market by 2012
- Winners (alphabetical)
- Winner/Loser
- Losers
DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS
- Table 3.19: CRC Drugs Discontinued During Development
APPENDIX 1
- Patient Model
- Table 3.20: Summary of US CRC Patient Population Forecasts
APPENDIX 2
- Patient Model
- Table 3.21: Summary of Europe (Top 5) CRC Patient Population Forecasts
APPENDIX 3
- Patient Model
- Table 3.22: Summary of Japan CRC Patient Population Forecasts
APPENDIX 4
- Table 3.23: Global CRC Drugs Sales 2005A-20012E
APPENDIX 5
- Phase transition probability
APPENDIX 6
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
- Table 3.24: Key CRC Drugs on the Market by 2012
Glosary
Bibliography
ACRONYMS
Volume2
NON-SMALL CELL LUNG CANCER
THE FACTS
- What is NSCLC and how does it affect patients?
- Figure 4.1: Schematic of the Lung
- Stages of the disease
- Table 4.1: Stages of NSCLC and Survival Rates
- PATIENT STATISTICS
- Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future
- Figure 4.2: Estimates New Cancer Deaths (2006E)*
- Table 4.2: European prevalence of NSCLC
- Table 4.3: Japanese prevalence of NSCLC
- PATIENT MODEL
- The addressable NSCLC market will increase by 15% by 2012
- Table 4.4: Summary of Global NSCLC Patient Population Forecasts In Top 7
Countries (2005A-2012E)
- Figure 4.3: Tobacco Use in the US 1900-2002
- DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
- DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS
GLOBAL CANCER MARKET
- Figure 4.6: Global Cancer Drug Sales (including Supportive Care) in 2006
(US$47.2 billion)
- Figure 4.7: Global Cancer Sales 2004A-2012E
THE NSCLC MARKET
- GLOBAL NSCLC SALES SPLIT
- Figure 4.8: Global NSCLC Market By Region (2006)
- Figure 4.9: Global NSCLC Market By Therapy Class (2006)
- Figure 4.10: Global NSCLC Market by Region (2012E)
- Figure 4.11: Global NSCLC Market by Therapy Class (2012E)
- US market
- Figure 4.12: NSCLC US Drugs Sales Split (2006)
- European market
- Figure 4.13: NSCLC European Drugs Sales Split (2006)
- Japanese market
- Figure 4.14: NSCLC Japanese Drugs Sales Split (2006)
- THE PLAYERS
- Figure 4.15: Market Share of NSCLC Players By Sales (2006)
- Players and Products in 2006
- Players and products in 2012
- CURRENT TREATMENTS
- SURGERY
- RADIATION
- CHEMOTHERAPY
- Table 4.5: Standard NSCLC therapy
- Table 4.6: Platinum-Based Regimens
- Table 4.7: FDA-Approved Regimens for Advanced NSCLC
- Table 4.8: Doublet Regimens
- Leading Brands
- Current Products' Patent Exposure
- Table 4.9: Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
- Chemotherapies
- Taxotere (sanofi-aventis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 4.17: Summary of pivotal clinical trial data with Taxotere
- Figure 4.18: TAX317 Survival Kaplan-Meier Curves - Taxotere 75mg/m2 vs
Best Supportive Care
- Figure 4.19: TAX320 Survival Kaplan-Meier Curves - Taxotere 75mg/m2 vs
Vinorelbine or Ifosfamide Control
- Figure 4.20: Taxotere-treated patients as % of patient potential (Top
7)
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Taxol (Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 4.20: Efficacy Parameters in Phase III Trials
- Management/clinical expertise
- Figure 4.21: BMS Developmental Product Pipeline
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Navelbine (GlaxoSmithKline)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Gemzar (Eli Lilly)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Alimta (Eli Lilly)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Novel Targeted Therapies
- Targeting EGFR
- Figure 4.24: EGFR Signal Transduction in Tumour Cells
- Table 4.10: EGFR Expression In Solid Tumours
- Targeting VEGF
- Figure 4.25: Angiogenesis is the Formation of New Blood Vessels
- Figure 4.26: Agents Targeting the VEGF Pathway
- Current Products Patent Exposure
- Table 4.11: Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
- Novel targeted therapies
- Iressa (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Table 4.12: Clinical Development of Iressa
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Tarceva (Roche/Genentech/OSI Pharmaceuticals)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 4.27: Tarceva Lung Cancer Development Programme
- Figure 4.28: Key Combination Targeted Therapy Programmes
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Table 4.13: Tarceva Filings and Indications
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Avastin (Roche/Genentech/Chugai)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 4.29: Avastin Lung Cancer Development Programme
- Figure 4.30: Key Combination Targeted Therapy Programmes
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Table 4.14: Proposed Filing of New Indication for Avastin
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Sales Forecast of Current NSCLC Drugs
- Table 4.15: Global NSCLC Sales of New Products 2005A-2012E (US$ millions)
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT OF NSCLC DRUGS
- Figure 4.31: 2006 Survey: Medicines in Development for Cancer
- Table 4.15: Products in Clinical Development for the Treatment of NSCLC
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS
- Table 4.16: New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat NSCLC
- Recentin (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Eloxatin (sanofi-aventis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Erbitux (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Merck Serono/ImClone Systems)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Table 4.17: Clnical developmental programme for Erbitux
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- PF-3,512,676 (Pfizer/Coley Pharmaceutical)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Figure 4.32: PF-3,512,676 Mechanism of Action Through TLR Modulation
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 4.33: Survival benefit of TLR-9 monotherapy in NSCLC
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Stimuvax (Merck Serono/Biomira)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Talabostat (Point Therapeutics)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Figure 4.34: Schematic of Talabostat' s mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Figure 4.35: Point Therapeutics Pipeline December 2006
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Xyotax (Novartis/Chugai/Cell Therapeutics)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Zactima (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Figure 4.36: Zactima' s Triple Mechanism of Action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Figure 4.37: Schematic of Zactima' s Pivotal Trial Programme 2006-2008
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Another Phase III drug of interest
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III NSCLC DRUGS 2006E - 2012E
- Table 4.18: Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental NSCLC Drugs (US$
million)
- Model assumptions
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS
- Table 4.19: New Drugs in Phase II Development to Treat NSCLC
- Abraxane (AstraZeneca/Abraxis BioScience)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- EP-2101 (IDM Pharma)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Matuzumab (Merck Serono/Takeda)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Onconase (Alfacell)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Satraplatin (GPC Biotech/Pharmion/Spectrum Pharmaceuticals)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Talvesta (Hana Biosciences)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Figure 4.38: Talvesta' s Developmental Status
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions numbers are the same as last time
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- TG 4010 (Transgene)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Figure 4.39: Transgene Product Pipeline
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Figure 4.40: TG 4010 Development Timeline
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Velcade (Johnson & Johnson/Millennium Pharmaceuticals)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Other Interesting Phase II Drugs
- Asentar (sanofi-aventis/Novacea)
- Axitinib (Pfizer)
- HGS-ETR2 (Human Genome Sciences Inc/Cambridge Antibody Technology)
- Ispinesib (Cytokinetics/GlaxoSmithKline)
- KRX-0401 (Keryx Oncology/AEterna Zentaris)
- LEP-ETU (NeoPharm)
- MAGE-A3 vaccine (GlaxoSmithKline)
- Nexavar (Bayer Schering Pharma/Onyx Pharmaceuticals)
- Omnitarg (Roche/Genentech/Chugai Pharmaceutical)
- Triapine (Vion Pharmaceuticals)
- Targretin (Ligand Pharmaceuticals)
- Torisel (Wyeth)
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II NSCLC DRUGS 2006A - 2012E
- Table 4.20: Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental NSCLC Drugs (US$
millions)
- Model assumptions
- Sales Forecast of New NSCLC Drugs
- Table 4.21: Global NSCLC Sales of New Products 2006A-2012E (US$ millions)
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - PRODUCTS
- Table 4.22: Rating Score for Clinical Rating
- Figure 4.41: CR Analysis of NSCLC Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug
Class
- COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES
- Figure 4.42: CR Analysis of NSCLC Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on
Company
- WINNERS & LOSERS
- Table 4.23: Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the NSCLC Market by
2012
- Winners (alphabetical)
- Losers
DISCONTINUATION OF NSCLC DRUGS
- Table 4.24: NSCLC Drugs Discontinued During Development
Appendix 1
- Patient Model
- Table 4.25: Summary of US NSCLC Patient Population Forecasts
Appendix 2
- Patient Model
- Table 4.26: Summary of Europe (Top 5) NSCLC Patient Population Forecasts
Appendix 3
- Patient Model
- Table 4.27: Summary of Japan NSCLC Patient Population Forecasts
Appendix 4
- Table 4.28: Global NSCLC Drugs Sales 2005A-20012E
APPENDIX 5
- Phase transition probability
- Table 4.29: Probability of Launch
Appendix 6
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
- Table 4.30: Key NSCLC Drugs on the Market by 2012
BIBLIOGRAPHY
GLOSSARY
Acronyms
PROSTATE CANCER
THE FACTS
- What is PCA and why are we interested in it?
- Figure 5.1: Schematic of prostate gland
- PATIENT STATISTICS
- Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future
- Figure 5.2: Incidence and mortality rates of PCA in selected countries
(2002E)
- PATIENT MODEL
- The number of patients with PCA will have a CAGR (2005A-2012E) of 4.8%
- Table 5.1: Summary of Patient Population Forecasts
- DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
- DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS
GLOBAL CANCER MARKET
- Figure 5.3: Global Cancer Drug Sales (including Supportive Care) in 2006
(US$47.2 billion)
- Figure 5.4: Global Cancer Sales 2004A-2012E
- THE PCA MARKET
- Figure 5.5: Global Sales Split (2006)
- US market
- Figure 5.6: PCA US Drugs Sales Split (2006)
- European market
- Figure 5.7: PCA European Drugs Sales Split (2006)
- Japanese market
- The major players
- Figure 5.8: Market Share of PCA Players by Sales (Dec 2006)
- Players and Products in 2006
- Players and products in 2012
- Figure 5.9: Global Market Share of PCA Players by Sales (Dec 2012E)
- CURRENT TREATMENTS
- Watchful waiting/active monitoring
- Surgery
- Radiotherapy
- Hormonal treatment
- Chemotherapy
- Leading Brands
- Table 5.2: Comparison of Leading PCA Agents
- Current Products' Patent Exposure
- Table 5.3: Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
- LHRH analogues
- Anti-androgens
- Chemotherapy
- LHRH Analogues
- Eligard (sanofi-aventis/Astellas Pharma)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Lupron (TAP Pharmaceutical Products)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Zoladex (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Anti-Androgens
- Casodex (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Chemotherapy
- Taxotere (sanofi-aventis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005A-2012E
- Table 5.4: Sales Forecasts of Current Leading PCA Drugs (US$ millions)
- Model assumptions
- NEW DRUGS IN R&D
- Table 5.5: Drugs in Development to Treat PCA
- Drugs for PCA prevention
- 5-Alpha Reductase Inhibitors
- Proscar (Merck & Co) and Avodart (GlaxoSmithKline)
- Non-Steroidal Selective Oestrogen Receptor Modulator (SORM)
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS
- Table 5.6: New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat PCA
- Chemotherapy
- Hormone/Vitamin D therapies
- Targeted therapies
- Vaccines
- Chemotherapy
- Satraplatin (GPC Biotech/Pharmion/Spectrum Pharmaceuticals)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Hormone/Vitamin D therapies
- Asentar (Novacea)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Degarelix (Ferring/Astellas Pharma)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Targeted Therapies
- Avastin (Roche/Genentech/Chugai)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Xinlay (Abbott Laboratories)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Vaccines
- GVAX (Cell Genesys)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Provenge (Dendreon)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III PCA DRUGS 2006A-2012E
- Table 5.7: Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental PCA Drugs (US$
million)
- Model assumptions
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS
- Table 5.8: New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat PCA
- Angiogenesis inhibitors
- Gene therapy
- Hormonal therapies
- Monoclonal antibodies
- Angiogenesis inhibitors
- AS1404 (Antisoma/Novartis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- CC-4047 (Celgene)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- ZD4054 (AstraZeneca)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Gene Therapy
- Genasense (Genta)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Hormonal Therapies
- Ozarelix (AEterna Zentaris/Spectrum Pharmaceuticals)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Monoclonal Antibodies
- Ipilimumab (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Medarex)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Figure 5.10: Schematic of MDX-010' s mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Other Interesting Phase II Drugs
- Recentin (AstraZeneca)
- Gleevec/Glivec (Novartis)
- GTI-2040 (Lorus Therapeutics)
- Ixabepilone (Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- Zactima (AstraZeneca)
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II PCA DRUGS 2006A - 2012E
- Table 5.9: Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental PCA Drugs (US$
millions)
- Model assumptions
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - PRODUCTS
- Table 5.10: Rating Score for Clinical Rating
- Figure 5.11: CR Analysis of PCA Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug
Class
- COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES
- Figure 5.12: CR Analysis of PCA Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on
Company
- WINNERS & LOSERS
- Table 5.11: Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the PCA Market by 2012
- Winners (alphabetical)
- Losers
DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS
- Table 5.12: Drugs Discontinued (or ‘on hold’) from Clinical
Development in PCA
APPENDIX 1
- Figure 5.13: TNM Staging System for PCA
APPENDIX 2
- PCA Tumour Grading System - Gleason Score
APPENDIX 3
- Phase transition probability
- Table 5.13: Probability of Launch
APPENDIX 4
- Patient Model
- Table 5.14: Summary of US PCA Patient Population Forecasts
- Table 5.15: Summary of Europe (Top 5) PCA Patient Population Forecasts
- Table 16: Summary of Japan PCA Patient Population Forecasts
APPENDIX 5
- Table 5.17: Global PCA Drugs Sales 2005A-20012E (US$ millions)
APPENDIX 6
- Competitor Ratio Analysis Criteria
- Table 5.18: Key PCA Drugs on the Market by 2012
Glosary
REFERENCES
ACRONYMS
RENAL CELL CARCINOMA
THE FACTS
- What is RCC and why are we interested in it?
- Figure 6.1: Structure of the Kidney
- PATIENT STATISTICS
- Incidence, diagnosis rates and treatment; now and in the future
- Figure 6.2: World age-standardised incidence rates for kidney cancer,
selected countries, 2002 estimates
- PATIENT MODEL
- The number of patients with RCC will have a CAGR 2005A-2012E of 2.67%
- Table 6.1: Summary of Patient Population Forecasts
- DRUG GROWTH DRIVERS
- DRUG GROWTH RISKS/DAMPENERS
THE MARKET
- GLOBAL CANCER MARKET
- Figure 6.3: Global Cancer Drug Sales (including Supportive Care) in 2006
(US$47 billion)
- Figure 6.4: Global Cancer Sales 2004A-2012E
- THE RCC MARKET
- GLOBAL SALES SPLIT
- Figure 6.5: Global sales split (2006)
- US market
- Figure 6.6: RCC US Drugs Sales Split (2006A)
- European market
- Figure 6.7: RCC European Drugs Sales Split (2006A)
- Japanese market
- The major players
- Players and Products in 2006
- Players and products in 2012
- Figure 6.9: Global Market share of RCC players by sales (Dec 2012E)
- CURRENT TREATMENTS
- Leading Brands
- Table 6.2: Comparison of Leading RCC Agents
- Current Products' Patent Exposure
- Table 6.3: Patent Exposure of Leading Brands
- ANALYSIS OF LEADING BRANDS
- Immunomodulating agents
- Interferon (IFN) alpha
- Intron A/PEG-Intron (Schering-Plough)
- Roferon-A/Pegasys (Roche)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Table 6.4: Sales forecasts for interferon products
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Proleukin (Novartis/Chiron)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Nexavar (Bayer/Onyx Pharmaceuticals)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Sutent (Pfizer)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF CURRENT TREATMENTS 2005A-2012E
- Table 6.5: Sales Forecasts of Current Leading RCC Drugs (US$ millions)
- Model assumptions
- NEW DRUGS IN R&D
- Table 6.6: Drugs in Development to Treat RCC
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE III DRUGS
- Table 6.7: New Drugs in Phase III Development to Treat RCC
- Avastin (Roche/Genentech/Chugai)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Everolimus (Novartis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Pazopanib (GlaxoSmithKline)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Rencarex (Wilex)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Torisel (Wyeth)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- TroVax (Oxford BioMedica/sanofi-aventis)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Tykerb (GlaxoSmithKline)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE III RCC DRUGS 2006E-2012E
- Table 6.8: Sales Forecasts of Phase III Developmental RCC Drugs (US$
million)
- Model assumptions
- ANALYSIS OF PHASE II DRUGS
- Table 6.9: New Drugs in Early Clinical Development to Treat RCC
- Immunomodulators
- Angiogenic inhibitors
- Novel agents
- Immunomodulators
- rIL-21 (ZymoGenetics/Novo Nordisk)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Revlimid (Celgene)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Talactoferrin (Agennix)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Angiogenesis inhibitors
- ABT-510 (Abbott)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Novel agents
- AS1411 (Antisoma)
- Novelty/rationale for mechanism of action
- Proof of concept/clinical data
- Management/clinical expertise
- Competition within the marketplace/gaining share of voice
- Risks associated with developing a drug within a therapeutic class
- Filings and approval
- Sales forecasts and assumptions
- Competitor Ratio Analysis
- Other Interesting Phase II Drugs
- ABT-751 (Abbott)
- Recentin (AstraZeneca)
- GTI-2040 (Lorus Therapeutics)
- Ipilimumab (Medarex/Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- Ixabepilone (Bristol-Myers Squibb)
- Vatalinib (Novartis/Bayer Schering Pharma)
- Volociximab (PDL BioPharma/Biogen Idec)
- XL880 (Exelixis)
- GLOBAL SALES FORECASTS OF PHASE II RCC DRUGS 2006A - 2012E
- Table 6.10: Sales Forecasts of Phase II Developmental RCC Drugs (US$
million)
- Model assumptions
COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - PRODUCTS
- Table 6.11: Rating Score for Clinical Rating
- Figure 6.11: CR Analysis of RCC Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on Drug
Class
- COMPETITOR RATIO ANALYSIS - COMPANIES
- Figure 6.12: CR Analysis of RCC Agents Approved by 2012 - Based on
Company
- WINNERS & LOSERS
- Table 6.12: Summary of Key Companies and Drugs in the RCC Market by 2012
- Winners (alphabetical)
- Losers
DISCONTINUATION OF DRUGS
- Table 6.13: Drugs Discontinued (or ‘on hold’) from Clinical
Development in RCC
APPENDIX 1
- Figure 6.13: RCC Tumour Staging Systems
- Tumour, Node, Metastasis (TNM) Staging of Renal Cell Carcinoma
APPENDIX 2
- Phase Transition Probability
- Table 6.14: Probability of Launch
Appendix 3
- Patient Model
- Table 6.15: Summary of US RCC Patient Population Forecasts
- Table 6.16: Summary of Europe (Top 5) RCC Patient Population Forecasts
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