Global demand for lighting fixtures is projected to climb 6.9 percent annually through 2016 to $153 billion. Product sales will be driven primarily by a strong global rebound in motor vehicle output and an acceleration in building construction activity. Efforts to conserve energy and convert to more efficient light source technologies will also boost gains, particularly as sales of incandescent and other less efficient lamps are being phased out through much of the world. Increased use of these higher-end fixtures will also contribute to gains in value terms. In the developing world, ongoing efforts to modernize the building stock, coupled with increasing urbanization and rising incomes will further aid advances.
Through 2016, China alone will account for 36 percent of all additional demand, retaining its position as the largest lighting fixture market. The US, the second largest market, will also post above-average gains, itself accounting for 18 percent of additional global sales, as the country rebounds from a reduced 2011 base. However, sales gains are expected to be the fastest in India, a developing market for lighting fixtures. Above-average growth is also forecast in lower-volume markets such as Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, and Vietnam.
Although increases will generally not be as robust, lighting fixture demand in established lighting fixture markets such as Western Europe and Japan will improve from reduced 2011 bases. The rate of growth through 2016 will be attributable in large part to a strong upturn in automotive industry production after a period of decline. Sales of lighting fixtures in developed areas will also be spurred by improving economic activity, leading to a pickup in consumer spending and recoveries in construction activity.
Nonportable indoor lighting fixtures will record the fastest gains of any major product segment through 2016, fueled by a recovery in residential construction spending and an acceleration in nonresidential building activity. Vehicular fixtures will expand at the next fastest rate, stimulated by increases in global motor vehicle production, including a recovery in key markets such as the US, Japan, and Western Europe, where vehicle output had declined sharply into 2011. Demand for portable lighting fixtures will be more moderate, partly because many newer light technologies are designed to fit most legacy portable fixtures.
Lighting fixture demand can be segmented into three major markets: construction, vehicles and machinery, and consumer and commercial goods. The construction market -- which includes hardwired fixtures used as part of new construction and improvement and repair projects, as well as the separately sold parts and accessories used in conjunction with these fixtures -- is the largest on a worldwide basis, accounting for 57 percent of global sales in 2011. Gains in this market will be led by the residential building segment, which is expected to achieve a recovery through 2016. Sales gains in the vehicles and machinery market will nearly match those of the construction market over the forecast period as vehicle production rates improve.
This upcoming Freedonia industry study, World Lighting Fixtures, presents historical demand data for 2001, 2006 and 2011, plus forecasts for 2016 and 2021 by product, market, world region and for 24 major countries. The study also considers market environment factors, evaluates company market share and profiles 39 industry competitors, including Acuity Brands, Cooper Industries, HELLA and Koito Group.
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