World demand for lighting is projected to grow 12.3 percent yearly through 2016 to $78.3 billion. Gains will be boosted by an ongoing shift to higher value lighting technologies that are more efficient, particularly as many countries phase out general use incandescent lamps. The rising availability of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) and other high efficiency light sources at more affordable prices, along with improved light quality, will further propel this shift. Product sales will also be driven in part by an acceleration in factors such as personal income, economic activity, global motor vehicle output, and construction spending.
LED (or solid-state) lighting devices will record by far the fastest global market gains of any major product segment through 2016. Historically, demand for LEDs used in lighting applications has been restrained by both high product prices and technical deficiencies in the quality and diffusion of light. However, the rapid rate of technological advances is dramatically improving their performance capabilities and resulting in substantial reductions in cost, leading to LED use in a growing number of lighting applications. Sales of fluorescent lamps will continue to grow, spurred in the near term by government-led efforts to phase out usage of energy-inefficient general service conventional incandescent lamps in many areas. While compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) have generally been the replacement product of choice, sales are expected to be more limited going forward partly due to rising concern for safe disposal of spent CFLs (which is complicated by the incorporation of mercury into the lamps) and competition from LEDs which are benefitting from reduced prices and improved performance.
Market gains in developing countries will outpace electric lighting sales in the US, Western Europe and Japan, spurred by healthy economic growth, ongoing industrialization efforts, greater manufacturing output, new household formation activity, and rising standards of living. China will account for 49 percent of all additional product demand through 2016, strengthening its position as the largest national market for lamps and LEDs. Above average growth is also expected in Russia, Mexico, and Brazil. Sales of lighting in many of these developing areas will be assisted by subsidies for consumer purchases of high efficiency lighting, sometimes with support from international organizations, as utilities seek to reduce load on local energy grids or benefit from carbon reduction credits.
Poland and other parts of Eastern Europe will post similar sales gains as economic conditions improve. Canada will also generate robust sales as the country will be slower to require high efficiency lighting compared to other developed countries. Although sales advances will not be as strong in most other developed areas, lighting product sales will climb there as well through 2016, bolstered by a strong upturn in motor vehicle production and construction activity from reduced 2011 levels, coupled with interest in changing to more efficient light sources.
Details on these and other findings are contained in the Freedonia industry study, “World Lighting: Lamps & LEDs”, which presents historical data (2001, 2006, 2011) plus forecasts (2016 and 2021) for supply and demand, as well as demand by product and market in six world regions and 22 major countries. The study also assesses market environment factors, evaluates company market share, and profiles 38 global competitors.