The Future of the Light Olefins Markets to 2020

This publication has been discontinued on September 9, 2011.

Introduction

Abstract

Description

GBI Research’s new report ‘The Future of the Light Olefins Markets to 2020’ provides an in-depth analysis of the global light olefins industry. The research presents detailed analysis and forecasts of the major economic and market trends affecting the light olefins markets in all the major regions of the world. The report includes demand and production forecasts in key countries, major end-use sectors and regional price analysis. Market share analysis of the major light olefins producers by region is also included in this comprehensive report covering all the major parameters.

Global Light Olefins Demand, 2000-2020

Source: GBI Research

Chinese Demand Will Be the Major Driver of the Global Light Olefins Market

China will be the principal driver for global light olefins demand up to 2020. The rapid increase in downstream capacity additions of polyethylene and polypropylene, two of the largest end use segments of light olefins, and the fast growth of exports were the main drivers of light olefins demand in China. The Chinese government is currently undertaking a $600 billion investment program to develop infrastructure in the interior of China, which will be the main driver of light olefins demand in the future. Although China has large light olefins capacities coming online in the next few years, the country will emerge as the largest importer of light olefins in the world.

The Chinese light olefins demand will grow by 15% annually and account for 51% of the global light olefins demand in 2020.
Large Scale Constructions in Iran and Saudi Arabia Will Drive Light Olefins Demand in the Middle East Region

The growth in demand for light olefins in the Middle East region was phenomenal during the last decade. The demand was driven by large scale polyolefins construction projects in Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE, countries that have benefited from the high oil prices in the past few years. These countries have undertaken large multi-billion dollar projects to develop their physical infrastructure and encourage industrialization, and the construction of polyolefins projects form an integral part of that strategy. Polyolefins projects will drive the growth of light olefins demand in the region, which will account for 14% of the light olefins market in 2020.

Global Light Olefins Demand by Region (%), 2008

Source: GBI Research

Light Olefins Demand Will Be Stagnant In the Developed Markets of North America and Europe
Over 45% of the global light olefins demand comes from the developed markets of North America and Europe but the demand from these two regions is expected to remain stagnant to 2020. The absence of capacity additions in the downstream processing sectors, competition from cheap imports and the slowdown in construction and industrial activities are the main reasons for the bleak demand outlook in these regions.

North America accounted for 26% of the global light olefins demand in 2008, and according to GBI Research estimates, it will account for only 18% of the global light olefins demand in 2020. The economic recession in the US is the main reason for the light olefins demand stagnation in North America.

Europe accounted for 20% of the global light olefins demand in 2008. According to GBI Research estimates, this will reduce to 15% of the global light olefins demand in 2020. The economic slowdown in large economies such as Germany, the UK and Italy is the main reason for light olefins demand stagnation in Europe. Growth from the Central and Eastern European countries will not compensate for the decline in industrial and construction activity in the major economies of Western Europe.

Infrastructure Investments and Construction Activities in Developing Countries Will Drive the Demand for Light Olefins

The current low per capita consumption of light olefins and the greater rate of economic development in the fast growing developing countries of China, India and Brazil are driving the global demand for light olefins. The rapid development in these countries is driving the demand for polyolefins, which are extensively used in the packaging and construction sectors. A significant proportion of the population in these developing countries lacks basic infrastructure including housing, potable water and sanitation facilities. The work undertaken by these countries to address this situation will drive the demand from piping applications and the development of organized retail industries in these countries will increase the demand for packaging applications, one of the largest end use industries of polyolefins.

Summary

GBI Research, the leading business intelligence provider, has released its latest research “The Future of the Light Olefins Markets to 2020”. The study, which is an offering from the company’s Chemicals Research Group, provides an in-depth analysis of the global light olefins industry. The research presents detailed analysis and forecasts of the major economic and market trends affecting the light olefins markets in all the major regions of the world. The report includes demand and production forecasts in key countries, major end-use sectors and regional price analysis. Market share analysis of major light olefins producers by region is also included in this comprehensive report covering all the major parameters. The report is built using the data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in house analysis by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.
The global light olefins market will be mainly driven by demand from developing economies of China, India and Brazil. Low per capita consumption and high demand from developing countries will drive the global light olefins demand. Historically, North America was the largest market for light olefins, but it has been overtaken by the Asia Pacific region which currently accounts for around 34% of the global light olefins demand. During the same period, the demand from traditionally large markets of the US, Western Europe and Japan have either remained stagnant or have declined.

Global light olefins market size in 2008 was 178.61 million tons and is expected to reach 267.92 million tons in 2020. The global light olefins market in 2008 was dominated by the Asia Pacific region, followed by North America and Europe. In the Asia Pacific region, China accounts for 36% of the region’s demand and is the second largest producer of light olefins in the world. The light olefins market in North America and Europe is consolidated and in Asia Pacific it is highly fragmented.

Scope

- Market volumes data for light olefins from 2000 to 2008 and forecast for 12 years to 2020.
- End use data by major sectors for 2008 and for 2020.
- Light Olefins markets in key regions- Asia Pacific, North America, Europe, South and Central America (Latin America) and the Middle East.
- Light Olefins in key countries- The US, Canada, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, The UK, China, Japan, India, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Brazil and Mexico.
- Drivers of light olefins demand including Chinese and Middle East demand, and restraints of light olefins demand including the slowdown in developed markets of North America and Europe are analyzed in this report.
- Information on the competitive landscape with the shares of the leading companies such as Dow Chemicals, LyondellBasell, ExxonMobil and SABIC.

Reasons to buy

- Obtain the most up to date information available on the light olefins industry globally.
- Benefit from the advanced insight into each of the major markets through the detailed forecasts of demand, production, end use and prices of light olefins.
- Multiply your revenue streams by identifying key growth sectors and geographies.
- Develop invest-divest strategies by knowing global, regional and key country market size and growth trends and competitive landscape.
- Create targeted marketing strategies and product promotion plans.
- Identify the macro and micro-economic trends shaping and driving the light olefins markets in various regions.
- Make more informed business decisions from the insightful and in-depth analysis of the market landscape and the factors shaping it.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Introduction
2.1 GBI Research Report Coverage
2.2 Definitions
3 Global Light Olefins Markets
3.1 Global Light Olefins Demand and Production
3.2 Global Light Olefins Demand by Region
3.2.1 Middle East Light Olefins Market Overview
3.2.2 North America Light Olefins Market Overview
3.2.3 South and Central America Market Overview
3.2.4 Asia Pacific Market Overview
3.2.5 Europe Market Overview
3.3 Global Light Olefins End Use Analysis
3.3.1 Global Light Olefins Demand from Polyethylene
3.3.2 Global Light Olefins Demand from Polypropylene
3.3.3 Global Light Olefins Demand from Ethylene Dichloride
3.4 Global Light Olefins Price Analysis
3.4.1 Global Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
3.4.2 Global Propylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
3.5 Global Light Olefins Market Share Analysis
4 Middle East Light Olefins Market
4.1 Middle East Market Overview
4.2 Middle East Market Drivers
4.3 Middle East Market Restraints
4.4 Middle East Industry Challenges
4.5 Middle East Light Olefins Demand and Production
4.5.1 Saudi Arabia Light Olefins Market
4.5.2 Iran Light Olefins Market
4.6 Middle East Light Olefins End Use Analysis
4.6.1 Middle East Light Olefins Demand from Polyethylene
4.6.2 Middle East Light Olefins Demand from Polypropylene
4.6.3 Middle East Light Olefins Demand from Ethylene Dichloride
4.7 Middle East Light Olefins Price Analysis
4.7.1 Middle East Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
4.7.2 Middle East Propylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
4.8 Middle East Light Olefins Market Share Analysis
5 North America Light Olefins Market
5.1 North America Market Overview
5.2 North America Market Drivers
5.3 North America Market Restraints
5.4 North America Industry Challenges
5.5 North America Light Olefins Demand and Production
5.5.1 United States Light Olefins Market
5.5.2 Canada Light Olefins Market
5.6 North America Light Olefins End Use Analysis
5.6.1 North America Light Olefins Demand from Polyethylene
5.6.2 North America Light Olefins Demand from Polypropylene
5.6.3 North America Light Olefins Demand from Ethylene Dichloride
5.7 North America Light Olefins Price Analysis
5.7.1 North America Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
5.7.2 North American Propylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
5.8 North America Light Olefins Market Share Analysis
6 South and Central America Light Olefins Market
6.1 South and Central America Market Overview
6.2 South and Central America Market Drivers
6.3 South and Central America Market Restraints
6.4 South and Central America Industry Challenges
6.5 South and Central America Light Olefins Demand and Production
6.5.1 Mexico Light Olefins Market
6.5.2 Brazil Light Olefins Market
6.6 South and Central America Light Olefins End Use Analysis
6.6.1 South and Central America Light Olefins Demand from Polyethylene
6.6.2 South and Central America Light Olefins Demand from Polypropylene
6.6.3 South and Central America Light Olefins Demand from Ethylene Dichloride
6.7 South and Central America Light Olefins Price Analysis
6.7.1 South and Central America Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
6.7.2 South and Central America Propylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
6.8 South and Central America Light Olefins Market Share Analysis
7 Asia Pacific Light Olefins Market
7.1 Asia Pacific Market Overview
7.2 Asia Pacific Market Drivers
7.3 Asia Pacific Market Restraints
7.4 Asia Pacific Industry Challenges
7.5 Asia Pacific Light Olefin Demand and Production
7.5.1 Japan Light Olefins Market
7.5.2 China Light Olefins Market
7.5.3 India Light Olefins Market
7.6 Asia Pacific Light Olefins End Use Analysis
7.6.1 Asia Pacific Light Olefins Demand from Polyethylene
7.6.2 Asia Pacific Light Olefins Demand from Polypropylene
7.6.3 Asia Pacific Light Olefins Demand from Ethylene Dichloride
7.7 Asia Pacific Light Olefins Price Analysis
7.7.1 Asia Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
7.7.2 Asian Propylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
7.8 Asia Pacific Light Olefins Market Share Analysis
8 Europe Light Olefins Market
8.1 Europe Market Overview
8.2 Europe Market Drivers
8.3 Europe Market restraints
8.4 Europe Industry Challenges
8.5 Europe Light Olefins Demand and Production
8.5.1 France Light Olefins Market
8.5.2 Germany Light Olefins Market
8.5.3 UK Light Olefins Market
8.5.4 Spain Light Olefins Market
8.5.5 Italy Light Olefins Market
8.6 Europe Light Olefins End Use Analysis
8.6.1 Europe Light Olefins Demand from Polyethylene
8.6.2 Europe Light Olefins Demand from Polypropylene
8.7 Europe Light Olefins Price Analysis
8.7.1 Europe Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
8.7.2 European Propylene Price Analysis and Forecasts to 2020
8.8 Europe Light Olefins Market Share Analysis
9 Appendix
9.1 Methodology
9.1.1 Coverage
9.1.2 Secondary Research
9.1.3 Primary Research
9.1.4 Expert Panel Validation
9.2 Unit of Measure
9.3 Contact Us
9.4 About GBI Research
9.5 Disclaimer



Table 1: Global Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 2: Global Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 3: Global Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 4: Middle East Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 5: Saudi Arabia Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 6: Iran Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 7: Middle East Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 8: Middle East Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 9: North America Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 10: United States Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 11: Canada Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 12: North America Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 13: North America Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 14: South and Central America Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 15: Mexico Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 16: Brazil Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 17: South and Central America Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 18: South and Central America Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 19: Asia Pacific Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 20: Japan Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 21: China Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 22: India Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 23: Asia Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 24: Asia Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 25: Europe Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 26: France Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 27: Germany Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 28: UK Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 29: Spain Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 30: Italy Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Table 31: European Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Table 32: European Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20



Figure 1: Global Light Olefins Demand, (Million Tonnes), 2000-20
Figure 2: Global Light Olefins Demand by Region, 2008-20
Figure 3: Global Light Olefins Demand by End Use, 2008-20
Figure 4: Global Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 5: Global Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 6: Global Light Olefins Market Share, 2008
Figure 7: Middle East Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 8: Middle East Light Olefins Demand by Major Countries, (Million Tons), 2008-20
Figure 9: Saudi Arabia Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 10: Iran Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 11: Middle East Light Olefins Demand by End Use, (Million Tons), 2008-20
Figure 12: Middle East Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 13: Middle East Propylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 14: Middle East Light Olefins Market Share, ($/Ton), 2008
Figure 15: North America Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 16: North America Light Olefins Demand by Major Countries, (Million Tons), 08-20
Figure 17: United States Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 18: Canada Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 19: North America Light Olefins Demand by End Use, (Million Tons), 2008-20
Figure 20: North America Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 21: North America Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 22: North America Light Olefins Market Share, 2008
Figure 23: South and Central America Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 24: South and Central America Light Olefins Demand by Major Countries, (Million Tons), 2008-20
Figure 25: Mexico Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 26: Brazil Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 27: South and Central America Light Olefins Demand by End Use, (Million Tons), 2008-20
Figure 28: South and Central America Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 29: South and Central America Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 30: South and Central America Light Olefins Market Share, 2008
Figure 31: Asia Pacific Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 32: Asia Pacific Light Olefins Demand by Major Countries, (Million Tons), 2008-20
Figure 33: China Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 34: India Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 35: Asia Pacific Light Olefins Demand by End Use, (Million Tons), 2008-20
Figure 36: Asia Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 37: Asia Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 38: Asia Pacific Light Olefins Market Share, 2008
Figure 39: Europe Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 40: Europe Light Olefins Demand by Major Countries, (Million Tons), 2008-20
Figure 41: France Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 42: Germany Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 43: UK Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 44: Spain Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 45: Italy Light Olefins Demand and Production, (Million Tons), 2000-20
Figure 46: Europe Light Olefins Demand by End Use, (Million Tons), 2008-20
Figure 47: European Ethylene Price Analysis and Forecasts, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 48: European Propylene Price Analysis and Forecast, ($/Ton), 2000-20
Figure 49: Europe Light Olefins Market Share, 2008
Figure 50: GBI Research Methodology

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