Thin - Film Photovoltaic (PV) Cells Market Analysis to 2020 - CIGS (Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide) to Emerge as the Major Technology by 2020 published by GBI Research in June, 2010. This report consists of Pages: 78 and the price starts from US $ 3500.
Abstract
GBI Research’s new report, “Thin - Film Photovoltaic (PV) Cells
Market Analysis to 2020- CIGS (Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide) to Emerge as
the Major Technology by 2020” provides key information and analysis on
the market opportunities in the Global thin film Solar PV industry. The report
covers the key market drivers, restrains and growth forecast for major thin
film technologies - Amorphous silicon (a-Si), Cadium Telluride (Cdte),
and Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS). The report entails comprehensive
analysis of thin-film module production, production capacity, key countries
and key industry players. The key study focuses on the global thin film PV
industry market outlook along with comparative analysis of different
technologies.
The report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary
databases, primary and secondary research, and in house analysis by GBI
Research’s team of industry experts.
The Evolving Thin Film industry Growth Trajectory to Gain Pace Going
Forward
Thin-film PV technology witnessed minimal research activities till the early
1980’s. Post this period, it witnessed a constant advancement, in terms
of manufacturing technology and materials used. The pursuit of cost-effective
electricity generating technology lured major corporations and investors
towards the thin film PV industry. The industry saw more than 100 companies
entering the market between 2001 and 2009. Thin film PV technology has seen a
major development leap from only being associated with the little strip of PV
cells used in power calculators to sophisticated Building Integrated PV or
solar charges for mobile devices. From a mere 14 MW production in 2001 the
market has grown to reach 2,141 MW in 2009, at a CAGR of 58%. The market
outlook for the coming decade appears promising as the major thin film
producing countries - Japan, China, and the US - are announcing aggressive
support for renewable energy expansion through incentives and regulations. In
retrospect, the thin film module production is projected to grow at the rate
of 24% between 2009 and 2020, to reach 22,214 MW production by 2020.
Global Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2001-2020
Source: GBI
Research; F-Forecast
Thin Film Technology Gaining Increasing Share in the Solar Photovoltaic
industry
Over period of time, the thin film technology has been successful in grabbing
a larger share of the PV market. Thin film production market share in the
global solar PV market grew from a mere 2.8% in 2001 to 25% in 2009, thus
dictating a growing share in the future. Thin film solar PV, as per GBI
Research’s estimation, is set to increase its share to ~38% by
2020. Expectations are that, in the long-term, thin film solar PV technology
would surpass the dominating conventional solar PV technology, thus enabling
the long sought-after grid parity objective.
Thin Film Market Share in % (in terms of module production), 2001-2020
Source: GBI Research, F-Forecast
CIGS - The Future Market Leader
CIGS technology is gaining more popularity than other thin-film technologies
due to its higher efficiency and reduced manufacturing costs. The success of
CIGS cells depends on the efficiency, and a faster and cheaper manufacturing
process. The future of CIGS technology is encouraging as a lot of venture
capitalist firms are investing in it. Investments in excess of $2 billion have
already been made in the CIGS market by various companies.
CIGS will most likely be the face of thin film solar PV technology in the
future. The technology’s value proposition is that it offers combined
advantages of both c-Si, which gives relatively good efficiency and thin-film
PV technologies, which claim potential advantages on cost, flexibility,
weight, and manufacturability. From 2010, CIGS segment is expected to capture
the maximum share in the thin film module market as most of the CIGS
manufacturers will begin to attain production cost and conversion efficiencies
on par with other thin film technologies especially Cdte.
Thin Film Solar Module Market, by technology type, Market Share in %,
2001-2020
Source: GBI Research, F-Forecast
Market Expansion Coupled with the Entry of New Players To Drive Growth
With over 160 companies producing thin-film solar cells and modules worldwide,
the market includes a number of big players with many years of experience and
expanding production capacities (First Solar, Kaneka, Mitsubishi, United Solar
etc.). There are also a handful of newcomers, a small number of which have the
potential to develop into significant players. Many of these companies are
‘pure players’, but a lot of companies that are already
established in silicon technology are also attempting to enter the thin-film
technology market. Many manufacturers (such as Sharp, ErSol and Q-Cells) see
the expansion of their thin-film activities as a type of hedging to their
existing technology portfolio, while others are dedicated solely to this
technology (e.g. Würth Solar, Kaneka, First Solar and Shell). Thus, the
increasing number of manufacturers focusing on this market would eventually
lead to major growth in the near future.
Low Efficiency of Thin Film Technologies is a Significant Inhibitor
Due to low efficiency levels of the thin film technologies, their cost
effectiveness is not competitive at present. Therefore, competing with
electricity cost generated through conventional sources of energy is currently
not possible for thin film technology manufacturers. This has increased
uncertainty related to technology demand going forward into the future.
Coupled with this, capital constraints due to global financial crunch, has led
banks and manufacturers, to shy away from financing thin film technology in
favor of more mature and abundant crystalline silicon modules for projects in
2009, which may continue in the coming future, resulting in narrowing the thin
film expansion.
Competitive landscape
Most of the significant thin film module producers use the aSi technology
which indicates the effectiveness and innovative potential of this mature
technology. While number of companies in a-Si production are larger than other
thin film technologies, Cdte technology emerged as a potential challenger and
garnered maximum market share in 2009 with First Solar being the market
leader. First Solar’s module production was five times the production
of the nearest competitor, United Solar. Only one company from the top 10
companies produced significant amount of CIGS modules in 2009, Wuerth Solar.
The production numbers for CIGS are expected to change significantly going
forward as new entrants plan to begin the production ramp-up, coupled with
extensive investment inflow in this segment
Thin - Film Photovoltaic (PV) Cells Market Analysis to 2020 - CIGS (Copper
Indium Gallium Diselenide) to Emerge as the Major Technology by 2020
Summary
The report provides key data, information and analysis on the current status
and future outlook of Global Thin film industry. The report provides detailed
volume and value forecasts to 2020 of the global thin-film PV market by
technology type and geographic region. The global thin film photovoltaic (PV)
market, despite of caution in the overall PV industry, is expected to
experience an overwhelming growth in coming years. By 2020, the industry is
set to transform itself to become the face of Solar PV industry.The study also
addresses thin-film module production, production capacity, and competition
among the industry players (as per technologies) along with the focus on
development of emerging technologies in the thin film arena. The report
entails comprehensive analysis of top 5 countries. The strongest growth for
thin film, as per our analysis, will be in Europe and the US in the short to
medium term. Asian countries like China, Japan, and India are also expected to
speedup their escalation in the medium term. In Germany will remain strongest
and the most important market for thin film PV industry.
Scope
- This comprehensive report gives a thorough analysis of global thin film
photovoltaic (PV) market.
- The report covers top 5 countries -
Germany, Japan, the US (United States), China and Republic of Korea.
-
Cumulative and annual installed capacity from 2001 to 2009, with forecasts to
2020 for the Global Solar PV and Global Thin Film PV industry.
- Market
share and comparative analysis of different thin film technologies along with
forecast. Technologies covered include Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Cadmium
Telluride (CdTe), Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS)
- Comparative
analysis of traditional solar PV technology and thin film PV technology.
-
Competitive landscape which also includes the detailed information of top 10
companies. Key companies covered include First Solar, Inc., United Solar
Ovonic, LLC, Sharp Corporation, Kaneka Corporation, Trony Solar Corporation,
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
- Key topics covered include the Market
Drivers, Market Restraints, Market trends, emerging market and Investment
status.
Reasons to buy
The report will enhance your decision making capability in more rapid and time
sensitive manner. It will allow the user to:
- Identify key growth drivers
and restrain, and competitive landscape in top 5 countries
- Position
yourself to gain the maximum advantage of the industry' s growth potential by
developing strategies based on the industry’s emerging technologies and
current market strategies adopted by the top players.
- Identify key
established industry players along with start-up ventures while analyzing
investment trends in the industry.
- Identify the drivers and restraints
of global thin film industry along with its established technologies
-
Facilitate decision making based on strong historic and forecast data.
-
Understand how each technology, each at a different stage of development and
adoption, are driven forward to the development path.
Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 4
1.1 List of Tables 7
1.2 List of Figures 8
2
Global Energy Consumption Overview 9
2.1 The Breadth of Global Electricity
Consumption 9
2.2 Emergence & Potential of Renewable Energy 10
2.3
Solar Energy: An Attractive Alternative 11
3 Global Solar Photovolataic
(PV), Overview and Market Analysis, 2001-2020 12
3.1 Solar Photovoltaic
(PV) Technology, Definition 12
3.2 Solar PV Value Chain 12
3.2.1
Silicon Feedstock 13
3.2.2 Ingots and Wafers 13
3.2.3 Solar PV Cells
13
3.2.4 PV Modules 13
3.2.5 PV System Integration/installation 13
3.3 Solar PV cell type 13
3.3.1 Crystalline Silicon (c-Si) 14
3.3.2
Thin Film Solar PV 14
3.4 Global Solar PV Market Analysis 14
3.4.1
Global Solar PV Market in 2009 14
3.4.2 Global Solar PV Market, Key
factors driving the growth of the market 16
3.4.3 Global Solar PV Market,
Key Issues Hindering Market Growth 17
3.4.4 Global Solar PV Installed
Market, Cumulative Installed Capacity in MW, 2001-2020 17
3.5 Future
Outlook 19
4 Global Thin Film Technology - Overview, Share Analysis,
Efficiency and Cost Anlysis 20
4.1 Thin Film PV Technology Introduction &
Evolution 20
4.1.1 Thin Film Technology, Definition 20
4.2 Amorphous
Silicon (a-Si) Thin Film - Technology Overview, Market Analysis, and
Cost - Conversion Efficiency Analysis 21
4.2.1 Amorphous Silicon
(a-Si), Technology Overview 21
4.2.2 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Technology
Evolution 21
4.2.3 Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Cell structure 22
4.2.4
Amorphous Silicon (a-Si), Market Overview 23
4.2.5 Amorphous Silicon
(a-Si), Factors Driving Technology Uptake 23
4.2.6 Amorphous Silicon
(a-Si), Major Restrains Hindering the Technology Growth 24
4.2.7 Amorphous
Silicon (a-Si), Cost and Conversion Efficiency analysis 24
4.2.8 Amorphous
Silicon (a-Si), Key Industry Players 25
4.3 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) Thin
Film - Technology Overview, Market Analysis, and Cost - Conversion
Efficiency Analysis 26
4.3.1 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), Technology Overview
26
4.3.2 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), Module Manufacturing Process and Other
Related Details 27
4.3.3 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), Market Overview 27
4.3.4 Cadmium telluride (CdTe), Key Factors Driving the Technology’s
Uptake 28
4.3.5 Cadmium telluride (CdTe), Restraints Hindering the
Technology’s Uptake 28
4.3.6 Cadmium Telluride (CdTe), Cost and
Efficiency Analysis 28
4.3.7 Cadmium telluride (CdTe), Key industry
players 29
4.4 Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS) Thin Film -
Technology Overview, Market Analysis, and Cost - Conversion Efficiency
Analysis 30
4.4.1 CIGS, Technology Overview 30
4.4.2 CIGS Solar PV
Cell Structure 30
4.4.3 CIGS Manufacturing Process 31
4.4.4 CIGS,
Market Overview 32
4.4.5 CIGS, Major Factors Driving Technology Uptake
32
4.4.6 CIGS, Restraints Hindering Technology Uptake 33
4.4.7 CIGS,
Cost and Efficiency Analysis 33
4.4.8 CIGS, Key Industry Players 34
4.5 Global Thin Film Solar Module Market Share by Technology 35
4.6
Comparative Analysis: Different Thin Film Solar PV Technologies vis-à-vis
Traditional Solar PV Technology 37
4.6.1 Solar PV Technologies, Value
Chain Analysis 37
4.6.2 Solar PV Technologies, Conversion Efficiency
38
4.6.3 Module Cost/Watt (in $) Comparative Analysis, Crystaline Silicon
vis-à-vis Thin Film, 2009-2020 39
4.6.4 Conclusion 40
4.7 Thin
Film Solar PV Technology, Market Segmentation by End-User 40
5 Global Thin
Film Market - Market Analysis, Historical and Forecast Module Production
and Installed Capacity, 2001-2020 42
5.1 Global Thin Film Market, Overview
42
5.2 Global Thin Film Market, Key Factors Driving Growth 42
5.2.1
Ambitious Expansion Plans 42
5.2.2 Key Properties, Advantages of Thin Film
Technology Over Conventional Silicon Technology 42
5.2.3 Cost-effective
Compared to Conventional PV Technology 43
5.2.4 Increase in Investment by
Venture Capital Firms Driven by Technological Advances 43
5.2.5 Industry
Leader has the Lowest Levelized Cost for Electricity (LCOE) 43
5.2.6
Government Support and Inclination Towards Clean Technology will Drive the
Market Growth Potential 43
5.2.7 Global Economic Recovery 43
5.3
Global Thin Film Market, Restraints 44
5.3.1 Less Competitive -
Inability to Compete with c-Si and Conventional Energy Sources on Cost 44
5.3.2 More Reliance on Government Subsidies and Incentives 44
5.3.3
Incompetent Properties 44
5.3.4 Easing of Silicon Shortage Leading to hike
in Crystalline Silicon Demand 45
5.3.5 Reduction in Oil prices 45
5.4
Global Thin Film Solar PV Module Production in MW, 2001-2020 45
5.5 Global
Thin Film Solar PV Installed Capacity in MW, Annual & Cumulative 2001-2020
47
5.6 Global Thin Film PV Technology - Increasing their Share in
the Solar Photovoltaic Industry 48
5.7 Thin Film PV Technology Investment
Scenario 50
5.8 Global Thin Film PV Industry Roadmap 51
6 Key Analysis
of the Top Four Thin Film Module Producing Countries 52
6.1 Top Four Thin
Film Producing Countries - Share in Global Thin Film Production in 2009 52
6.2 Germany, Thin Film Module Production - Market Overview, Historic and
Forecast Production and Key Solar PV Policies 52
6.2.1 Germany, Thin Film
Module Production, Market Overview 52
6.2.2 Germany, Historical and
Forecast Thin Film Module Production, 2007-2020 53
6.2.3 Germany, Solar
Photovoltaic Regulatory Framework 54
6.3 Japan, Thin Film Module
Production - Market Overview, Historic & Forecast Production and Key
Solar PV Policies 57
6.3.1 Japan, Thin Film Module Production, Market
Overview 57
6.3.2 Japan, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module
Production in MW, 2007-2020 58
6.3.3 Japan, Solar PV Power Regulatory
Framework 60
6.4 China, Thin Film Module Production - Market
Overview, Historic & Forecast Production and Key Solar PV Policies 62
6.4.1 China, Thin Film Module Production, Market Overview 62
6.4.2 China,
Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 62
6.4.3 China, Solar PV Power Regulatory Framework 64
6.5 The US Thin Film
Module Production - Market Overview, Historic & Forecast Production and
Key Solar PV Policies 66
6.5.1 The United States, Thin Film Module
Production, Market Overview 66
6.5.2 The US, Historical and Forecast thin
film module production in MW, 2001-2020 66
6.5.3 The US Solar PV
Regulatory Framework 67
7 Global Thin Film Solar PV Technology,
Competitive Landscape 70
7.1 Global Top Ten Thin Film Companies, Module
Production Share, in 2009 70
7.2 Comparative Analysis, Major Thin Film
Companies 71
7.2.1 Top 10 Thin Film Module Producers, Production Capacity
and Production in MW, 2005-2009 73
8 Appendix 75
8.1 About GBI
Research 75
8.2 Market Definition 75
8.2.1 Product Types covered
75
8.2.2 Geographies covered 75
8.2.3 Exchange Rate 75
8.2.4
Abbreviations 76
8.3 Methodology 76
8.3.1 Coverage 77
8.3.2
Secondary Research 77
8.3.3 Primary Research 78
8.3.4 Expert Panel
Validation 78
8.4 Contact Us 78
8.5 Disclaimer 78
1.1 List of
Tables
Table 1: Electricity Consumption Trajectory, 1950-2050 9
Table
2: World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1990 - 2030, in Quadrillion Bt
10
Table 3: Global Solar PV market in MW, Installed Capacity (MW)
2001-2009, Key Countries 16
Table 4: Global Solar PV Cumulative Installed
Capacity (MW), 2001-2020 18
Table 5: Amorphous Silicon (1X), Conversion
Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 24
Table 6: CdTe, Conversion
Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 29
Table 7: CIGS, Conversion
Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 34
Table 8: Thin Film Solar
Module Market, by technology type, Market Share in %, 2001-2020 36
Table
9: Conversion Efficiency, Crystalline Silicon vis-à-vis Thin Film Solar
PV, 2009-2020 38
Table 10: Module cost/Watt in $, Crystalline Silicon
vis-à-vis Thin Film Solar PV, 2009-2020 39
Table 11: Global Thin Film
Module Production in MW, 2001-2020 46
Table 12: Global Thin Film Solar PV
Installed Capacity in MW, Annual and Cumulative, 2001-2020 48
Table 13:
Thin Film Market Share in % (in Terms of Production), 2001-2020 49
Table
14: Major Investment in the Thin film Industry, in 2009, $m 50
Table 15:
Germany, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020
54
Table 16: Germany, Solar PV Market, Digression Rates for Feed-In
Tariffs, 2008-2011 54
Table 17: Germany, Solar PV Market, Sliding Scale
for Digression Rates, 2008-2011 55
Table 18: Germany, Solar PV Market,
Feed-in Tariffs for Ground-Mounted Installations, (cents/kWh), 2008-2015
55
Table 19: Germany, Payment Structure for Different Types of PV
Installations, 2004 56
Table 20: Germany, Feed-in-Tariff, € /
KWh, 2008-2009 56
Table 21: Japan, Historical and Forecast Thin Film
Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 59
Table 22: Japan, Solar PV
Support Measures, 2008 61
Table 23: China, Historical and Forecast Thin
Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 63
Table 24: China, Solar PV
Support Measures (as of 2008) 65
Table 25: The US, Historical and Forecast
Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 67
Table 26: Top 10 Thin Film
Companies in 2009, in Terms of Module Production Share, in MW and % 70
Table 27: Comparative Analysis, Major Thin Film Companies 71
Table 28: Top
10 Thin Film Module Producers, Module Production in MW, 2005-2009 74
Table
29: Top 10 Thin Film Module Producers, Production Capacities in MW,
2005-2013 74
Table 30: Exchange Rate Conversion to USD,2009 75
Table
31: Abbreviations 76
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: World
Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1990 - 2030, in Quadrillion Btu 9
Figure 2: Solar PV Value Chain 12
Figure 3: Solar PV Cell Type 13
Figure 4: Global Solar PV Market in MW, Installed Capacity (MW) 2001-2009,
Key Countries 15
Figure 5: Global Solar PV Cumulative installed capacity
(MW), 2001-2020 18
Figure 6: Thin Film Manufacturing Process 20
Figure 7: Evolution of a-Si technology 21
Figure 8: Amorphous Silicon
Cell Structure, Single Junction 22
Figure 9: Amorphous Silicon Cell
Structure, Triple Junction 22
Figure 10: Amorphous Silicon (1X),
Conversion Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 24
Figure 11: CdTe
Solar PV Cell Structure, 2010 26
Figure 12: CdTe, Conversion Efficiency
and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020 29
Figure 13: CIGS, Cell Architecture
31
Figure 14: CIGS, Conversion Efficiency and Cost/watt in $, 2009-2020
34
Figure 15: Thin Film Solar Module Market, by technology type, Market
Share in %, 2001-2020 36
Figure 16: Solar PV Technologies, Value Chain
37
Figure 17: Conversion Efficiency, Crystalline Silicon vis-à-vis
Thin Film Solar PV, 2009-2020 38
Figure 18: Module Cost/Watt in $,
Crystalline Silicon vis-à-vis Thin Film Solar PV, 2009-2020 39
Figure 19: Market segment suitability for thin film PV technologies 41
Figure 20: Global Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2001-2020 46
Figure 21: Global Thin Film Solar PV Installed Capacity in MW, Annual &
Cumulative, 2001-2020 47
Figure 22: Thin Film Technology Share in % (in
Terms of Module Production), 2001-2020 49
Figure 23: Solar PV
Technologies, Market Penetration 51
Figure 24: Top Four Thin Film
Producing Countries - Share in Global Thin Film Production in 2009,
(Production in MW) 52
Figure 25: Germany, Historical and Forecast Thin
Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 53
Figure 26: Japan, Historical
and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020 58
Figure 27:
China, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production in MW, 2007-2020
63
Figure 28: The US, Historical and Forecast Thin Film Module Production
in MW, 2007-2020 67
Figure 29: Top 10 Thin Film Companies in 2009, in
Terms of Module production Share , % 70
Figure 30: Top 10 Companies,
Production Capacity and Module Production in MW, 2009 73
Figure 31:GBI
Research Methodology 77
