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Near Field Communication (NFC) Market to 2016 - Increased Availability of NFC Embedded Handsets Key for Higher Market Penetration

Abstract

Summary

NFC-based mobile handsets can be used for peer to peer communication, to download data from smart posters and for use as virtual identity cards. GBI Research expects the NFC market to grow at a CAGR of 68.8% from 2011-2016. Among the different form factors available for NFC IC integration, GBI Research expects the SIM-based model and the handset embedded model to gain the most market share in the future.

The report provides market size figures from 2010-2016 for different NFC secure element (SE) form factors used, and for key NFC end user market applications. The report also discusses the NFC ecosystem and its partners, and the different business models that could be potentially deployed.

Scope

  • Technological overview of NFC, the basic standards used and the timeline of development.
  • Market size analysis for different SE form factors, such as MicroSD, stickers, tags, embedded SE and Universal integrated circuit card (UICC).
  • Comparisons of NFC with other contactless communication technologies, such as MIFARE, FeliCa, Square and Bluetooth 4.0.
  • Key NFC end user applications, such as retail, marketing, transportation, identity cards and automotive, are analyzed with market revenues and market shares.
  • Market size for the total NFC IC market in terms of sales revenue and sales volume. This is forecast until 2016.
  • Market size and analysis of key regions, such as the Asia-Pacific region (APAC), Australia and New Zealand, North America and Europe, in terms of sales revenue and sales volume. This is forecast until 2016.
  • Discusses the NFC ecosystem and its partners, and the different business models that can be potentially deployed.
  • Expert views and comments from various organizations and companies, such as GSMA, Sequent Software Inc, Mobey Forum, Comprion and Stollmann are included.
  • Comprehensive profiles of key companies such as Sony Corporation, NXP Semiconductors, Oberthur Technologies, Mastercard, NFC Forum and Gemalto are provided.

Reasons to buy

  • Exploit growth opportunities across various SE IC form factors specific to the NFC market.
  • What is the future demand potential of different end user applications in the NFC market? - Identify, understand and capitalize.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends, research and developments that are driving the NFC market globally.
  • Understand the competitors operating in the NFC market from company and organization profiles.
  • Have an in-depth understanding of the NFC market from technical and commercial perspectives.

Executive Summary

GBI Research's new report, “Near Field Communication (NFC) Market to 2016 - Increased Availability of NFC Embedded Handsets Key for Higher Market Penetration”, provides key information and analysis on the NFC market. NFC is a wireless or contactless communication technology based on International Organization for Standardization (ISO), European Computers Manufacturers Association (ECMA) and European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) standards. It is comparable with other existing technologies such as MIFARE and FeliCa. The main application areas of NFC-based integrated circuits (ICs) are for mobile-based payments in the retail segment and transportation ticketing.

The report covers the latest information and research efforts of a number of NFC companies and organizations around the world. The report provides information on the market size of different NFC secure element (SE) form factors and provides analysis of the key NFC end user market segments. It also provides a comparative analysis of NFC and MIFARE, FeliCa, Square and Bluetooth (BT). The report discusses the NFC ecosystem and its partners, and the different business models that could be potentially deployed. Expert views and comments from various organizations and companies, such as GSMA, Sequent Software Inc, EMVCo and Comprion GmbH, are also included.

This report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and in-house analysis by GBI Research's team of industry experts.

NFC to be Integrated with Bluetooth (BT) and Wi-Fi Will Enhance Security

Bluetooth (BT) has become a standard feature in current phones and the majority of smartphones that are currently released, feature BT chips. Bluetooth 4.0 (BLE) was launched in November 2011 and this version of BT is expected to lead handset manufacturers to opt for dual mode chips that support both BLE and the older BT technology. Handsets are already integrated with Wi-Fi, Frequency Modulation (FM) and Global Positioning System (GPS) chips and it is expected that NFC will also be integrated in BT chipsets. Integrations such as these will reduce space requirements and the cost per unit. NFC facilitates the fast and easy establishment of BT and Wi-Fi, through pairing and security authentication. NFC transmissions are also short range, which means they are interception free. BT chips are also used in the automotive, medical and healthcare markets; however, the mobile phone market is the primary consumer of BT chips, and shipments of these reached 1.2 billion units in 2011. BT embedded handset sales are expected to reach 2.4 billion units by 2016, and the majority of these phones will also feature NFC.

Mobile Commerce Advantages to Act as a Major Incentive for NFC Adoption

At present, the retail industry is the main application area for mobile commerce. Many retailers, such as Woolworths and Coles in Australia, Casino in France, coffee chain Insomnia in Ireland, fashion house Miroglio in Italy, as well as Starbucks and McDonald's globally, have already enabled or announced plans to support NFC-based mobile payments. Although the majority of these transactions are currently limited to $25-$50 by different banking companies, this does not pose a problem as users generally purchase low value goods from these outlets. According to GBI Research, strong growth in NFC-based mobile commerce is expected to result in revenues of $300 billion in mobile transactions by 2015. Features such as security, ease of use and accessibility are expected to increase mobile transactions and will be a key driver for NFC adoption across different markets.

Lack of NFC Handsets and Terminals is a Market Restraint

A key restraint for the widespread adoption of NFC is the lack of handsets and terminals available that support NFC-based transactions. The availability of handsets with an NFC feature is dependent on market demand and the availability of NFC terminals when mobiles are used for payments. Many merchants and retailers plan to upgrade their infrastructure if there is widespread NFC adoption among consumers, as Point Of Sale (POS) terminals for NFC use are costly. This unavoidable inter-dependence among merchants and handset manufacturers is creating slow market growth. Although companies such as Orange, AT&T, Nokia, Samsung, Starbucks and Gemalto have begun trials and pledged support for an NFC rollout, merchants have not yet upgraded their POS terminals as aggressively as expected.

There are Slow Consumer Adoption Rates in the US and Europe

A lack of knowledge regarding the technology and advantages of NFC, coupled with concerns about the security of mobile transactions, is slowing the rate of adoption in regions such as the US and Europe. However, China, Japan and South Korea have strong NFC adoption rates because network operators, manufacturers and government institutions have advertised NFC technology to consumers and delivered the technology in an efficient and affordable manner. In the US and Europe, the lack of NFC handsets and the limited number of NFC compatible outlets has contributed to the slow growth of this technology.

The different stakeholders in the NFC business landscape should advertise about NFC and the technological advantages it offers over existing alternatives to consumers in order to strengthen growth. They also need to address concerns about security, fraud and viruses, and explain the role of independent stakeholders in case of complaints filed by the customer. This is so the end user can be aware of who to hold accountable for any deficiencies in service. Nav Bains, business head of Mobile NFC Services at Global System for Mobile Communications Association (GSMA), said the following about NFC industry challenges in an interview with GBI Research in December 2011: "Consumers, retailers, government and industry bodies need to be made aware of what NFC services are and the benefits they can bring."

Table of Contents

1. Table of Contents

  • 1.1 List of Tables
  • 1.2 List of Figures

2. Introduction

  • 2.1 GBI Research Report Guidance

3. Near Field Communication - Overview

  • 3.1 NFC - Technology Overview
  • 3.2 NFC - Development Timeline
  • 3.3 NFC - Technology Standards
  • 3.4 NFC - Technology Comparison
    • 3.4.1 FeliCa Cards
    • 3.4.2 MIFARE
    • 3.4.3 Bluetooth 4.0
    • 3.4.4 Square Payments
    • 3.4.5 Contactless Card Payments
    • 3.4.6 Bump Technology
  • 3.5 NFC Device Integration Form Factors
    • 3.5.1 MicroSD Type
    • 3.5.2 Handset Embedded
    • 3.5.3 SIM Integrated
    • 3.5.4 Sticker Type

4. NFC Ecosystem - Overview

  • 4.1 Major Ecosystem Partners
    • 4.1.1 Handset Manufacturers
    • 4.1.2 Mobile Network Operator
    • 4.1.3 MCPA SP
    • 4.1.4 Trusted Service Manager
  • 4.2 Business Model

5. NFC IC Market - Market Dynamics

  • 5.1 Market Drivers
    • 5.1.1 NFC to be Integrated with BT and Wi-Fi to Enhance Security
    • 5.1.2 Collaborations between MNOs, Financial Services Providers and Handset Manufacturers
    • 5.1.3 Increasing Use of NFC in Transportation Ticketing Segment
    • 5.1.4 Mobile Commerce Advantages to Act as an Incentive for NFC Adoption
    • 5.1.5 Decrease in Average Selling Prices (ASPs) of NFC ICs
  • 5.2 Market Restraints
    • 5.2.1 Lack of Availability of NFC Handsets and Terminals is a Challenge
    • 5.2.2 Multiple Ecosystem Partnerships have Led to Slow Technology Deployment
  • 5.3 Market Challenges
    • 5.3.1 Choosing a Suitable Business Model
    • 5.3.2 Slow Consumer Adoption Rates in the US and Europe
    • 5.3.3 Support from Government Organizations Needed to Implement NFC

6. Global NFC IC Market - Analysis and Forecast Based on Key End User Applications, 2010-2016

  • 6.1 Retail - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
  • 6.2 Transport - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
  • 6.3 Marketing - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
  • 6.4 Identity Cards - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
  • 6.5 Others - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
    • 6.5.1 Automotive
    • 6.5.2 Peer to Peer

7. Global NFC IC Market - Analysis and Forecasts Based on Key Regions, 2010-2016

  • 7.1 Europe - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
  • 7.2 North America - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
  • 7.3 Asia Pacific - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
    • 7.3.1 Australia and New Zealand - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016

8. Global NFC IC Market - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016

  • 8.1 NFC IC Revenues - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
  • 8.2 NFC IC Volumes - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
  • 8.3 NFC Enabled Mobile Handsets - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016
  • 8.4 NFC IC Device Integration Form Factors - Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016

9. Global NFC IC Market, Key Company Profiles

  • 9.1 Sony Corporation
    • 9.1.1 Sony Corporation - Business Description
    • 9.1.2 Sony Corporation - Key Products and Services
    • 9.1.3 Sony Corporation - SWOT Analysis
    • 9.1.4 Sony Corporation - Recent Developments
  • 9.2 NXP Semiconductors
    • 9.2.1 NXP Semiconductors - Business Description
    • 9.2.2 NXP Semiconductors - Key Products and Services
    • 9.2.3 NXP Semiconductors - SWOT Analysis
    • 9.2.4 NXP Semiconductors - Recent Developments
  • 9.3 Nokia Corporation
    • 9.3.1 Nokia Corporation - Business Description
    • 9.3.2 Nokia Corporation - Key Products and Services
    • 9.3.3 Nokia Corporation - SWOT Analysis
  • 9.4 MasterCard Worldwide
    • 9.4.1 MasterCard Worldwide - Business Description
    • 9.4.2 MasterCard Worldwide - Key Products and Services
    • 9.4.3 MasterCard Worldwide - SWOT Analysis
  • 9.5 Identive Group Inc
    • 9.5.1 Identive Group Inc - Business Description
    • 9.5.2 Identive Group Inc - Key Products and Services
  • 9.6 Oberthur Technologies
    • 9.6.1 Oberthur Technologies Inc - Business Description
    • 9.6.2 Oberthur Technologies Inc - Key Products and Services
    • 9.6.3 Oberthur Technologies Inc - SWOT Analysis
  • 9.7 Gemalto N.V
    • 9.7.1 Gemalto N.V. - Business Description
    • 9.7.2 Gemalto N.V. - Key Products and Services
    • 9.7.3 Gemalto N.V. - SWOT Analysis

10. Global NFC IC Market - Key Organization Profiles

  • 10.1 EMVCo
  • 10.2 NFC Forum
  • 10.3 Mobey Forum
  • 10.4 Smart Card Alliance
  • 10.5 GSMA

11. Appendix

  • 11.1 Market Analysis
    • 11.1.1 Product Types Covered
    • 11.1.2 Regions Covered
  • 11.2 About GBI Research
  • 11.3 Abbreviations
  • 11.4 Methodology
    • 11.4.1 Market Size Estimates
    • 11.4.2 Breakdown Estimates
    • 11.4.3 Coverage
    • 11.4.4 Secondary Research
    • 11.4.5 Primary Research
    • 11.4.6 Expert Panel Validation
  • 11.5 Contact Us
  • 11.6 Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Comparison of Wireless Technologies and NFC
  • Table 2: NFC Tag Formats
  • Table 3: Bluetooth Embedded Handset Shipments (bn), Global, 2008-2016
  • Table 4: NFC Pilots and Project Launches, Global
  • Table 5: NFC IC, Global, ASPs ($) 2010-2016
  • Table 6: End User Segment, Global, Market Share (%), 2011
  • Table 7: NFC IC Market, Retail Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 8: NFC Trials in the Transportation Segment, Global
  • Table 9: NFC IC Market, Transportation Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 10: Smart Poster Use Cases, Global
  • Table 11: NFC IC Market, Marketing Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 12: NFC IC Market, Identity Cards Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 13: NFC IC Market, Others, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 14: NFC IC Market, Global, Revenue Share by Region (%), 2011
  • Table 15: NFC IC Market, Europe, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 16: NFC IC Market, North America, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 17: NFC IC Market, Asia Pacific, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 18: NFC IC Market, Australia and New Zealand, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 19: NFC IC Market, Global, Sales Revenue ($bn), 2010-2016
  • Table 20: NFC IC Market, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 21: NFC Enabled Handset ICs Market Comparison, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 22: NFC IC Integration Form Factors, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Table 23: NFC IC Integration Form Factors, Global, Sales Revenue ($bn), 2010-2016
  • Table 24: Sony Corporation, Key Facts, 2010
  • Table 25: Sony Corporation, Key Products and Services
  • Table 26: Sony Corporation, SWOT Analysis
  • Table 27: NXP Semiconductors, Key Facts, 2010
  • Table 28: NXP Semiconductors, Key Products and Services
  • Table 29: NXP Semiconductors, SWOT Analysis
  • Table 30: Nokia Corporation, Key Facts, 2010
  • Table 31: Nokia Corporation, Key Products and Services
  • Table 32: Nokia Corporation, SWOT Analysis
  • Table 33: MasterCard Worldwide, Key Facts, 2010
  • Table 34: MasterCard Worldwide, Key Products and Services
  • Table 35: MasterCard Worldwide, SWOT Analysis
  • Table 36: Identive Group Inc, Key Facts, 2010
  • Table 37: Identive Group Inc, Key Products and Services
  • Table 38: Oberthur Technologies, Key Facts, 2010
  • Table 39: Oberthur Technologies, Key Products and Services
  • Table 40: Oberthur Technologies, SWOT Analysis
  • Table 41: Gemalto N.V, Key Facts, 2010
  • Table 42: Gemalto N.V, Key Products and Services
  • Table 43: Gemalto N.V, SWOT Analysis
  • Table 44: NFC Forum, Key Facts, 2011
  • Table 45: Mobey Forum, Key Facts, 2011
  • Table 46: Smart Card Alliance, Key Facts, 2011
  • Table 47: GSMA, Key Facts, 2011
  • Table 48: NFC Market, Abbreviations

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: NFC Development, 2003-2011
  • Figure 2: NFC Handset Functional Architecture
  • Figure 3: NFC Ecosystem
  • Figure 4: Near Field Communication, Market Dynamics, 2012
  • Figure 5: Bluetooth Embedded Handset Shipments (bn), Global, 2008-2016
  • Figure 6: NFC IC, Global, ASPs ($) 2010-2016
  • Figure 7: End User Segment, Global, Market Share (%), 2011
  • Figure 8: NFC IC Market, Retail Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 9: NFC IC Market, Transportation Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 10: NFC IC Market, Marketing Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 11: NFC IC Market, Identity Cards Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 12: NFC IC Market, Others, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 13: NFC IC Market, Global, Revenue Share by Region (%), 2011
  • Figure 14: NFC IC Market, Europe, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 15: NFC IC Market, North America, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 16: NFC IC Market, Asia Pacific, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 17: NFC IC Market, Australia and New Zealand, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 18: NFC IC Market, Global, Sales Revenue ($bn), 2010-2016
  • Figure 19: NFC IC Market, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 20: NFC Enabled Handset ICs Market Comparison, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 21: NFC IC Device Integration Form Factors, Global, Market Share (%), 2011 and 2016
  • Figure 22: NFC IC Integration Form Factors, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016
  • Figure 23: NFC IC Integration Form Factors, Global, Sales Revenue ($bn), 2010-2016
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