Generics are predicted to take over the antiviral drugs market, especially in the case of HIV medication, as a series of patent expiries will open opportunities for ambitious companies to seize huge revenue, according to a new report by healthcare experts GBI Research.
The new report* states that an increase in the patient population and reforms in government policies will work together to encourage the rise of generic pharmaceutical powers.
Government policies include the need for prior authorization in order to dispense branded drugs that have generic alternatives, while further incentives are available from Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBM) for dispensing generic drugs. These kinds of regulatory changes and financial benefits could act as significant drivers of the market during the forecast period.
While it is estimated that, in 2010, generics accounted for 18.9% of the market share in the global antivirals market, this market share is forecast to grow to reach 29.2% by 2018. This is largely due to a series of patent expiries expected to hit the antiviral market, which will act to raise the value of generic antiviral drugs to over $9 billion by 2018.
Generics in the HIV market in particular accounted for an estimated majority market share of 46% in the total generic antivirals market during 2010. HIV generics are expected to create a boom in the market, due to a loss of patent exclusivity for key antiviral drugs.
The generic market is currently dominated by products such as zidovudine, didanosine, stavudine and lamivudine. However, many major patent expiries are expected during the forecast period, including Sustiva (efavirenz) and Kaletra (lopinavir + ritonavir) in 2013, Prezista (darunavir ethanolate) in 2014, and major Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (NRTIs) such as Trizivir (abacavir sulphate/lamivudine/zidovudine), Epzicom (lamivudine and abacavir) and Emtriva (emtricitabine) in 2016.
By 2018, billions of dollars' worth of industry revenue will be lost from the expiry of these brand name products, and the race will be on for generics manufacturers to create new superstar drugs to make the most of this unmet need in the market. Generics within the antiviral market are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10.5% during 2010-2018.
In December 2011, Teva launched generic Combivir in the US market as a combination tablet containing lamivudine and zidovudine, indicated in combination with other antiretroviral agents for the treatment of HIV-1 infection. Combivir had annual sales of approximately $556m in 2010, based on the annual report.
Generics in the Antivirals Market to 2018 - Launch of Generic Combivir and Patent Expiry of Sustiva, Kaletra and Epivir-HBV will Drive Volume Growth
This report describes generic market in antiviral therapeutics, and covers antiviral therapeutics including HIV therapeutics, Hepatitis therapeutics, Herpes therapeutics, CMV therapeutics and Influenza therapeutics.
This report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research's team of industry experts.
Abstract
Generics in the Antivirals Market to 2018 - Launch of Generic Combivir and Patent Expiry of Sustiva, Kaletra and Epivir-HBV will Drive Volume Growth
Summary
GBI Research in its present report "Generics in the Antivirals Market to 2018 - Launch of Generic Combivir and Patent Expiry of Sustiva, Kaletra and Epivir-HBV will Drive Volume Growth" describes generic market in antiviral therapeutics. This report covers antiviral therapeutics including HIV therapeutics, Hepatitis therapeutics, Herpes therapeutics, CMV therapeutics and Influenza therapeutics. Generics in antiviral market are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10.5% during 2010-2018, largely due to series of patent expiries in the antiviral market. In 2010 generic HIV/AIDS therapeutic market sales contributes 46% market share in the total generic antiviral therapeutic market followed by generic herpes therapeutic market with 39.6% of market share. It is estimated that in 2010, generics accounted for 18.9% of market share in global antivirals market, and this market share is forecast to grow and reach 29.2% by 2018.
Generics in global antivirals market are estimated to be $4.2 billion in 2010 and are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10.5% and reach $9.2 billion by 2018. From 2004, the market grew at a CAGR of 21.1% to reach $4.2 billion in 2010. Global generic antiviral market is comprised of revenues generated by various generic antiviral drugs. In 2010, it is estimated that generics in HIV market accounted for largest market share in total generic antivirals market. Generics in HIV market accounted for 46% of market share in total generic antivirals market in 2010, while generic herpes therapeutics accounted for 39.6% of market share. Generic influenza therapeutics accounted for 1% of total market share. Generic CMV market holds about 9.6% of share in total antiviral generic market, while generic hepatitis market accounted for only 3.9% of market share.
Series of patent expiries of key antiviral drugs will positively impact the market. Increase in patient population, reforms in government policies towards the use of generic drugs could be other major drivers of the market during the forecast period.
GBI Research projects that global generic HIV market will grow at a CAGR of 6.7% during 2010-2018. Growth in the market could be attributed to loss of patent exclusivity of key antiviral drugs. The market is currently dominated by products such as zidovudine, didanosine, stavudine and lamivudine. Launch of Combivir (lamivudine/Zidovudine) is expected soon, which can significantly influence the market.
GBI Research forecast's that global generic herpes market will grow at a CAGR of 9% during 2010-2018. Global generic herpes therapeutics market grew at a rapid rate of 32.4% from 2004 to 2010. The market revenue during this period was driven primarily by generic product such as acyclovir. In 2009, after patent expiry of Valtrex (valacyclovir), its generic equivalents were launched. In 2010, Famvir (famciclovir), potent antiviral from Novartis lost its patent exclusivity and its generic equivalents are currently available. In April, 2011, Mylan launched generic version of famciclovir.
Scope
Data and analysis on the global generics in antivirals market
Market forecasts for the global generics in antivirals market until 2018
Market Data on geographical landscape including country wise coverage, cost of therapy, market size and market share.
Key drivers and restraints that have created significant impact on the market.
Competitive landscape of the global generics in antivirals market including top companies profiles. The key companies studied in this report are Teva Pharmaceuticals, Aurobindo Pharma, Mylan Inc and Watson Pharmaceuticals.
Key M&A activities, Licensing Agreements, that have taken place between 2007 and 2011 in the global generics in antivirals market.
Reasons to buy
The report will aid business development and marketing executives strategizing their product launches -
Build effective strategies to launch their generics antiviral products by identifying potential geographies.
Exploit in-licensing and out-licensing opportunities by identifying products that might probably fill their portfolio gaps.
Develop key strategic initiatives by studying the key strategies of top competitors.
Develop market-entry and market expansion strategies by identifying the geographic markets poised for strong growth.
Table of Contents
TOC
1 Table of Contents
1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 10
2 Introduction 11
3 Generics in Antivirals Market to 2018 - Market Overview 12
3.1 Introduction 12
3.2 Generic in Antivirals Market, Global Revenues 14
3.2.1 Revenue 14
3.2.2 Annual Cost of Treatment 18
3.2.3 Treatment Usage Pattern 19
3.2.4 Drivers and Restraints for Generic Antiviral Market 21
4 Generics in Antivirals Market to 2018 - Geographical Landscape 23
4.1 The US 23
4.1.1 Revenue 23
4.1.2 Treatment Usage Pattern 24
4.2 Top Five Countries of Europe 26
4.2.1 Revenue 26
4.2.2 Treatment Usage Pattern 29
4.3 Japan 31
4.3.1 Revenue 31
4.3.2 Treatment Usage Pattern 32
5 Generics in Antiviral Market to 2018 - Therapeutic Landscape 34
5.1 Global Generic HIV Therapeutics Market 34
5.1.1 Introduction 34
5.1.2 Revenue 35
5.1.3 Annual Cost of Treatment 40
5.1.4 Treatment Flow Algorithm 41
5.1.5 Treatment Usage Pattern 42
5.1.6 Drivers and Restraints for Generic HIV Market 44
5.2 Global Generic Hepatitis Therapeutics Market 45
5.2.1 Introduction 45
5.2.2 Revenue 47
5.2.3 Annual Cost of Treatment 51
5.2.4 Treatment Flow Algorithm 52
5.2.5 Treatment Usage Pattern 53
5.2.6 Drivers and Restraints for Generic Hepatitis Market 55
5.3 Global Generic Herpes Therapeutics Market 56
5.3.1 Introduction 56
5.3.2 Revenue 58
5.3.3 Annual Cost of Treatment 62
5.3.4 Treatment Flow Algorithm 63
5.3.5 Treatment Usage Pattern 64
5.3.6 Drivers and Restraints for Generics in Herpes Therapeutics Market 66
5.4 Global Generic Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market 67
5.4.1 Introduction 67
5.4.2 Revenue 68
5.4.3 Annual Cost of Treatment 72
5.4.4 Treatment Usage Pattern 73
5.4.5 Drivers and Restraints for Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market 75
5.5 Global Generic Influenza Market 76
5.5.1 Introduction 76
5.5.2 Revenue 77
5.5.3 Annual Cost of Treatment 81
5.5.4 Treatment Flow Algorithm 82
5.5.5 Treatment Usage Pattern 83
5.5.6 Drivers and Restraints for Influenza Therapeutics Market 85
6 Generics in Antivirals Market to 2018 - Major Marketed Drugs Analysis 86
6.1 Major Generic Drugs in Antivirals Market 86
6.1.1 Ribavirin 86
6.1.2 Acyclovir 86
6.1.3 Valacyclovir 87
6.1.4 Famciclovir 87
6.1.5 Penciclovir 87
6.1.6 Didanosine 88
6.1.7 Lamivudine 88
6.1.8 Stavudine 88
6.1.9 Zidovudine 89
6.1.10 Zalcitabine 89
6.1.11 Amantadine 89
6.1.12 Rimantadine 90
6.1.13 Ganciclovir 90
6.1.14 Foscarnet 90
6.2 Major Marketed Products Expecting Loss of Patent Exclusivity 91
6.2.1 Introduction 91
6.2.2 Baraclude 92
6.2.3 Viread 92
6.2.4 Combivir 93
6.2.5 Sustiva 93
6.2.6 Kaletra 93
6.2.7 Reyataz 94
6.2.8 Epzicom 94
6.2.9 Prezista 94
6.2.10 Valcyte 95
6.2.11 Tamiflu 95
6.2.12 Atripla 95
6.2.13 Truvada 96
7 Generics in Antivirals Market to 2018 - Competitive Landscape 97
7.1 Competitive Profiling 97
7.1.1 Teva Pharmaceuticals 97
7.1.2 Aurobindo Pharma Ltd 98
7.1.3 Watson Pharmaceuticals 99
7.1.4 Mylan Inc 100
8 Generics in Antivirals Market to 2018 - Strategic Consolidations 101
8.1 Generics in Antivirals Market: Major Deals 101
8.1.1 Gilead Sciences Extends Licensing Agreement with Matrix Laboratories for Tenofovir, Elvitegravir, Cobicistat and Quad 101
8.1.2 Bristol-Myers Squibb Enters Into Co-Marketing Agreement with Matrix Laboratories 101
8.1.3 Tibotec Pharmaceuticals Enters Into Licensing Agreement with Matrix Laboratories for TMC278 102
Figure 47: GBI Research Market Forecasting Model 109
Generics in the Antivirals Market to 2018 - Launch of Generic Combivir and Patent Expiry of Sustiva, Kaletra and Epivir-HBV will Drive Volume Growth published by GBI Research in June 25, 2012. This report consists of Pages: 110 and the price starts from US $ 3500.
