This publication has been discontinued on September 9, 2011.
Abstract
Canadian Oil Sands Industry to 2015 - Oil Price Recovery Providing
Momentum
Summary
GlobalData, the leading business intelligence provider, has released its
latest research “Canadian Oil Sands Industry to 2015 - Oil Price
Recovery Providing Momentum”. The study, which is an offering from the
company’s Energy Research Group, provides in-depth analysis of the
Canadian Oil Sands Industry with bitumen production forecasts, key trends,
some of the drivers and challenges for the oil sands industry participants
until 2015. The study provides detailed analysis and forecasts of major
economic and industry trends, both historic and forecast, affecting the
Canadian oil sands industry. The report includes historic and future forecasts
of bitumen production from various projects and distribution of oil sand
projects based on location. The report discusses about major mergers and
acquisitions in Canadian oil sands. The report also encompasses market share
analysis in terms of bitumen produced. It also discusses about major NOC
investments in Canadian oil sands. The report details about capital and
operating expenditure for projects based process techniques used in bitumen
extraction. The report discusses in detail about some of the major factors
influencing the operating expenditure of the Canadian oil sands.
The research discusses current and planned oil sand projects, key trends and
issues globally along with market share analysis of major participating
companies. The report is built using the data and information sourced from
proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in house analysis by
GlobalData’s team of industry experts.
According to the report the production from oil sands is expected to reach
1.82 million barrels per day by 2015 due to rising crude oil prices stimulated
by demand from developing nations in Asia Pacific. The production from
conventional oil reserves in Canada is already in the declining phase and will
further decline by 2015. The newly planned and upcoming oil sand exploration
activities are likely to compensate for the decline in conventional oil
reserves and the total oil production from the region will increase by 2015.
Other than the newly planned and upcoming oil sand projects, the anticipated
investments will further increase the bitumen production from the region. The
economy recovery post 2010 will further increase bitumen production levels.
The three major bitumen production sites in Canada are Athabasca, Cold Lake
and Peace River. Athabasca has the largest area for bitumen production from
oil sands. Out of the twenty six projects (in the form of current project
expansions and new projects) started between 2004 and 2009, twelve projects
are in Athabasca, five in Cold Lake, two in Peace River and one in the North
West. Capacity additions through new projects and current project expansions
are likely to be the highest in Athabasca region followed by Cold Lake. A
small portion of capacity additions will happen in Peace River and North West.
The bitumen from oil sands is extracted through mining and in-situ techniques
and utilization of these technologies varies depending on the location and
geology of the reservoir. The bitumen in Canadian oil sands is extracted
mainly by mining and the use of other techniques has only increased after
2003. Among the in-situ techniques, SAGD is widely adopted due to the
simplicity of the process and approximately 54 projects have employed it.
Primary production follows SAGD in terms of most extensively used technique.
Several novel techniques such as Solvent processing, Enhanced Recovery
Electro-Thermal Dynamic Stripping Process (ET DSP TM), Toe to Heal Air
Injection (THAI), N-SOLV and Vapor Exchange Process (VAPEX) are in proposed or
demonstration stages.
The Canadian oil sands industry is capital intensive and the capital and
operating expenditure depend on the reservoir geology, the bitumen fluid
properties and on the type of technique used for extraction. The capital
expenditure of CSS, SAGD, Standalone Mining and Integrated Mining was
approximately the same from 2004-06.
The decline in oil production from the existing conventional oil reserves is
prompting oil and gas majors to invest in new onshore and offshore reserves to
maintain the production levels. Oil and Gas majors such as; ConocoPhillips,
Chevron, EnCana, PetroChina, Shell and Statoil have invested in oil sands
through various joint ventures and consortiums. The bitumen produced by Suncor
Energy, Inc., Imperial Oil Limited, Shell Canada, Canadian Oil Sands Limited,
ConocoPhillips, EnCana Corporation, Devon Energy, Chevron, Marathon and Nexen
Inc accounted for 70.46% of the region’s H1 2009 total.
Scope
The report provides detailed information and analysis on Canadian oil sands
projects, production capacities of various projects, major in-situ recovery
technologies, operational and capital expenditure and planned projects. Its
scope includes:
- Current and Planned Canadian oil sand projects
-
Production Capacities of various existing projects
- Projects by major
in-situ recovery technologies
- Information on operation and capital
expenditure based on process technique used and resource consumed
- Annual
information covering historic data from 2000 to 2008 and forecasts to 2015
- Detailed project analysis of Athabasca, Cold Lake, North West, and Peace
River regions
- Drivers and challenges for the Canadian oil sands
industry
- Major mergers and acquisitions and asset transactions in the
oil sands industry
- Project level information for all oil sand projects
focusing on key statistics such as phase status, start year, regulatory
status, technology, bitumen capacity (bbl/day), bitumen upgrader capacity
(bbl/day), equity partners and equity stakes, operators, capital and
operational expenditure, bitumen production (barrels/day), operational and
capital expenditure per barrel.
- Project and production information of
Athabasca Oil Sands Corp, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, Chevron Canada,
Shell Canada, Connacher Oil and Gas Limited, Devon Canada Corporation, Deven
Energy, Encana Corporation, ConoccoPhillips, Husky Energy, Imperial Oil
Limited, Korean National Oil Corporation, Nexen Inc., Petro-Canada,
StatoilHydro ASA, Suncor Energy, Inc., Sunshine Oilsands Ltd, and others
- Market share analysis and competitive scenario of the top five oil sand
companies (bitumen production equity weighted)
- Environmental impacts
such as water footprint, natural gas usage, affects on habitat, carbon
emissions due to increase in Canadian oil sands production
Reasons to buy
The report will enhance your decision making capability in a more rapid and
time sensitive manner:
- The research will allow you to identify
prospective investment targets through a comprehensive update and discussion
on new oil sand projects, major upgrading units and capacity expansions of
existing units in the four locations.
- Find the most attractive
investment destination(s) for your business by comparing projects by
extraction process in these locations.
- Decide on market entry strategies
in specific markets with the help of an up-to-date review of existing and
planned capacity expansions of 92 Canadian oil sands projects in four
locations.
- Plan your future investments in the oil sand industry by
identifying average capital expenditure by project and by extraction process
- Detailed analysis of major company’s oil sand projects in Canada
will help in identifying the growth strategies of these companies
- Gain
insights into the strengths and weaknesses of your competitors based on market
shares of key oil sand companies in these markets.
- Details of foreign
investments and joint ventures will also help in identifying the entry
prospects in the oil sand industry in these markets.
Table of Contents
1 Table of contents
1 Table of contents 3
1.1 List of Tables 5
1.2
List of Figures 6
2 Introduction 7
2.1 Overview 7
2.2 GlobalData
Report Guidance 8
3 Overview, Key Trends, Historic and Forecast
Production for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry 9
3.1 Background, History
and Evolution of Canadian Oil Sands Industry 9
3.2 Major Production
Methods of Oil in Canadian Oil Sands Industry 9
3.3 Extraction and
Transportation of Oil Sands Deposits 10
3.4 Major Drivers Affecting the
Growth of Canadian Oil Sands Market 10
3.4.1 Declining Oil Reserves have
directed the World’s Interests towards Unconventional Reserves 11
3.4.2 Anticipated Rise in US Oil Consumption Pattern is Fortifying Canadian
Oil Sands Growth 12
3.4.3 Generic Alberta’s Royalty Regime has
Bolstered Canadian Oil Sands Industry in the Past 12
3.5 Impact of Crude
Oil Price Dynamics on Canadian Oil Sands Industry 15
3.6 Major Challenges
and Barriers for the Companies Participating in the Canadian Oil Sands
Industry 15
3.6.1 Environmental Implications due to Exploration in Oil
Sands Industry is Cause of Concern among Global Community 16
3.6.2 Need
for New and Eco-friendly Technologies Necessitates Research and Development
Expenditures by Oil Sand Companies 16
3.6.3 Effective Methods to Battle
Climate Change and Need for Investments in Clean Air Constrain Oil Sand
Companies 16
3.6.4 Adherence to Regulatory Framework for Oil Sands
Exploration Constrain the Companies 17
3.7 The Canadian Oil Sands
Industry, Trends and Information on Production from 2002-15 17
3.7.1
Major Delayed, Cancelled, Suspended Projects and Resumed Projects in 2009
18
3.8 Market Share Analysis and Key Project Announcements by Oil Sand
Companies in H1 2009 19
3.8.1 Production Share Analysis by Company of the
Canadian Oil Sands Industry in H1 2009 19
3.8.2 Reservoir and Process
Technology Matrix by Company in H1 2009 21
3.8.3 Land Rights by Company in
H1 2009 22
3.8.4 Investment and Project Announcements by Company 22
3.8.5 Proven and Probable Reserves by Major Oil Sand Companies in 2008 23
4 Economics of Canadian Oil Sands Projects 24
4.1 Historic Capital and
Operating Expenditure from 2002-08 24
4.2 Historic Capital
Expenditure by Project and Process Technology from 2004-08 25
4.3 Current Capital and Operating Expenditure by Project and Process
Technology in H1 2009 26
4.4 Major Factors Influencing Capital and
Operational Expenditure of Oil Sands Projects 27
4.4.1 Regional Geology
Influencing the Costs 28
4.4.2 Geological Challenges Influencing the Costs
28
4.4.3 Environment Challenges and Excess Resource Utilization Affects
the Operational Expenditure 29
5 Historic and Current Oil Sand Project
Information by Location and Recovery Technology from
2002-08 30
5.1
Bitumen Production by Region and Process Technology from 2002-08 34
5.2
Historic Project Information by Recovery Technology and Extraction Process
from 2002-08 36
5.2.1 Project Information by Extraction Process in H1 2009
36
5.3 Heavy Oil Upgraders, Project Information and Historic Production
from 2002-08 39
6 Key Upcoming Oil Sands Projects and Production
Forecasts by Region and Technology from
2009-15 40
6.1 Oil
Sands, Planned Project Analysis from 2009-15 40
6.2 Bitumen
Production Forecasts by Region and Process Technology from 2009-15
43
6.3 Heavy Oil Upgraders, Project Information and Forecast Production
from 2009-15 45
7 Major M&A Activities and Investments in Canadian Oil
Sands Industry in H1 2009 47
7.1 Trends in M&A, Deals and Asset
Transactions for the Canadian Oil Sands Industry from 2006- Nov 2009 47
7.2 Key Deals in the Canadian Oil Sands Industry 2008-09 48
7.3 Shifting
Focus of Major NOCs towards Canadian Oil Sands Industry 52
8 Appendix
53
8.1 Abbreviations 53
8.2 Methodology 53
8.2.1 Coverage 53
8.2.2 Secondary Research 54
8.2.3 Primary Research 54
8.2.4 Expert
Panel Validation 54
8.3 Contact Us 54
8.4 Disclaimer 55
1.1
List of Tables
Table 1: World, Oil Reserves by Region, H1 2009 11
Table 2: Canada, Oil Sands Production versus Royalties, 2002-08 14
Table 3: Canadian Oil Sands, Correlation between average Crude Oil Price and
Canadian Oil Sands
Production, 2002--08 15
Table 4:
Canada, Average Per Barrel Emissions Relative to the Average Barrel Consumed
in United
States, H1 2009 16
Table 5: Canada, Oil Sands Production
in Million Barrels Per Day, 2002-15 18
Table 6: Canadian Oil Sands,
Major Delayed/Cancelled/Suspended Projects, H1 2009 18
Table 7: Canadian
Oil Sands, Production Share of Bitumen by Major Companies (Barrels/Day), H1
2009 20
Table 8: Canadian Oil Sands, Reservoir and Process
Technology Matrix by Company, H1 2009 21
Table 9: Canadian Oil Sands, Land
Rights by Company, H1 2009 22
Table 10: Canadian Oil Sands, Synthetic
Crude Oil Reserves by Company, 2008 23
Table 11: Canadian Oil Sands,
Historic Capital and Operating Expenditure, 2002-08 24
Table 12:
Canadian Oil Sands, Historic Capital Expenditure by Process Technology,
2004-08 25
Table 13: Canadian Oil Sands, Capital and Operating
Expenditure by Project, H1 2009 26
Table 14: Canadian Oil Sands, Estimates
of Range of Capital and Operational Expenditure by Process
Technology, H1 2009 26
Table 15: Canada, Key Statistics of Earliest Oil
Sands Projects, H1 2009 30
Table 16: Canada, Key Statistics of Oil Sands
Projects, H1 2009 31
Table 17: Canada, Key Statistics of Oil Sands
Projects, H1 2009 32
Table 18: Canada, Key Statistics of Oil Sands
Projects, H1 2009 (Continued…) 33
Table 19: Canadian Oil Sands,
Gross Bitumen Production by Region and Process Technology, 2002-08 34
Table 20: Canadian Oil Sands, Bitumen Production by Region, 2002-08 35
Table 21: Canadian Oil Sands, Total Project Split by Extraction Process, H1
2009 36
Table 22: Canadian Oil Sands, Projects by Extraction Major
Technologies, 2002-08 39
Table 23: Canadian Oil Sands, Key Statistics of
Oil Sands Upgrader Projects, H1 2009 39
Table 24: Canadian Oil Sands,
Gross Bitumen Production from Upgraders, 2002-08 39
Table 25:
Canadian Oil Sands, Planned Oil Sand Projects, 2010-2015 40
Table
26: Canadian Oil Sands, Planned Oil Sand Projects, (Continued) 2010-2015
41
Table 27: Canadian Oil Sands, Planned Oil Sand Projects, (Continued)
2010-2015 42
Table 28: Canadian Oil Sands, Forecasts of Gross
Bitumen Production by Region and Process
Technology, 2009-15
43
Table 29: Canadian Oil Sands, Forecasts of Gross Bitumen Production by
Region, 2009-15 44
Table 30: Canadian Oil Sands, Key Statistics of
Oil Sands Upgrader Projects, H1 2009 45
Table 31: Canadian Oil Sands, Key
Statistics of Oil Sands Upgrader Projects (Continued), H1 2009 46
Table
32: Canadian Oil Sands, Gross Bitumen Production from Upgraders,
2009-15 46
Table 33: Canadian Oil Sands, Deal Value Vis-à-vis
Number of Deals, 2006- November 09 47
Table 34: Canadian Oil Sands, Deal
Value and No of Deals by Type of Deal, 2006-November 09 47
Table 35:
Canada, Deals in Canadian Oil Sands, 2009 49
Table 36: Canada, Deals in
Canadian Oil Sands, 2008 51
Table 37: Canadian Oil Sands, Deals by NOCs,
2009 52
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: World, Oil Reserves by
Region, H1 2009 11
Figure 2: US, Oil Imports by Country, H1 2009 12
Figure 3: Canada, Rent for Barrel of Oil, H1 2009 13
Figure 4: Canada, Oil
Sands Production versus Royalties, 2002-08 14
Figure 5: Canadian Oil
Sands, Correlation between average Crude Oil Price and Canadian Oil Sands
Production, 2002-08 15
Figure 6: Canada, Oil Sands Production
in Million Barrels Per Day, 2002-15 17
Figure 7: Canadian Oil Sands,
Market Share Analysis by Company, H1 2009 19
Figure 8: Canadian Oil Sands,
Synthetic Crude Oil Reserves by Company, 2008 23
Figure 9: Canadian Oil
Sands, Historic Capital and Operating Expenditure, 2002-08 24
Figure 10:
Canadian Oil Sands, Historic Capital Expenditure by Process Technology,
2004-08 25
Figure 11: Canadian Oil Sands, Gross Bitumen Production
by Region and Process Technology,
2002- 08 34
Figure 12: Canadian Oil Sands, Bitumen Production by Region, 2002-08
35
Figure 13: Canadian Oil Sands, Total Project Split by Extraction
Process, H1 2009 36
Figure 14: Canadian Oil Sands, Projects by Extraction
Major Technologies, 2002-08 38
Figure 15: Canadian Oil Sands,
Forecasts of Gross Bitumen Production by Region and Process
Technology, 2009-15 43
Figure 16: Canadian Oil Sands, Forecasts of
Gross Bitumen Production by Region, 2009-15 44
Figure 17: Canadian
Oil Sands, Trends by Deal Type, 2006-November 09 47
Figure 18:
GlobalData Methodology 53
