This year marks a turning point for electricity as a transportation fuel for
passenger vehicles. Automakers are sending electric vehicles (EVs) to market
with global penetration forecasted to increase more than five-fold by 2016.
The implications for electric power players and utilities are enormous, as the
requirements of commercial EV adoption will inevitably burden existing
electric power infrastructure. Given this reality, utilities are seeking out
smart grid technology solutions to ensure grid reliability along with
generation capacity by activating a digital dialogue between the grid and the
EV.
Figure: Five Steps of Smart Grid Upgrades to Support EVs
Souce: GTM Research
This report examines in detail the technology and planning considerations that
will enable a successful smart grid-EV convergence. The report analyzes hot
button issues such as transformer build-out and advanced metering (AMI) and
charging infrastructure, but also expands the conversation beyond these known
challenges to highlight emerging smart grid solutions for the EV market. These
solutions include communications standards and protocols that act as the
"digital handshakebetween the grid and the EV, as well as distribution
automation (DA) technologies that will enable a more self-aware grid capable
of autonomously self-correcting based EV consumption patterns and
moment-to-moment grid conditions.
Value-added Elements
Market, regulatory and cost drivers propelling EV adoption globally
EV sales forecast through 2016, with EV penetration by state for the U.S.
Analysis of EV planning considerations for utilities, including: charging
impacts on load, substation planning, retail rate design, business case for EV
integration, etc.
Strategic positioning of smart grid technologies (i.e., distribution
automation, communications standards) for EV roll-out and grid reliability
Questions for Competitive Decision-making
How have global market trends such as gasoline prices, regulatory
influence, and auto innovation positioned key EV markets?
Which global region will see the largest share of the EV market through
2016?
What will be the best utility practices for integrating commercial EV
adoption into local grids?
Which smart grid technologies will see the greatest opportunity in the EV
market and, how are these smart grid technologies already serving the EV
sector?
Figure: The Price Spread of a “Gallon” of Electricity vs. a Gallon of Gasoline (est.)
Source: GTM Research
AUTHOR BIO
David Leeds directs the smart grid research practice at GTM. Mr. Leeds has guest lectured on the subject at MIT, Stanford, and The Wharton School of Business (University of Pennsylvania). He has been quoted as an expert by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post; his perspective pieces have appeared in a variety of publications including BusinessWeek, Power Magazine and Fortune.
ABOUT GTM RESEARCH & GREENTECH MEDIA
GTM RESEARCH IS A BRAND OF GREENTECH MEDIA
Provides economic and strategic analysis for the global renewable energy
and electricity industries
Delivers critical intelligence and advisory services
Improves business operations and facilitates informed decision making
Analyst team includes experts across the green technology value chain
Valued for our objective stance, integrated economic analysis and fl
exibility
Stands at the forefront of the clean energy industry with specifi c
expertise in solar power, the Smart Grid, advanced transportation, and energy
efficiency
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & KEY FINDINGS
1.1. Executive Summary
1.2. Key Findings
2. INTRODUCTION: ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN 2011
2.1. Electric Transportation: A New Way Forward
2.2. Three Waves of Consumer Adoption and EV Ramping Factors
2.3. Defi nitions
2.4. Quotes
3. EV PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS FOR UTILITES
3.1. Utility Concerns
3.1.1. Recent GTM Research
3.1.2. Issues on the Horizon for Utilities
3.1.2.1. Signifi cant Load Impacts
3.1.2.2. The critical need for o¥ -peak charging and smart charging
3.1.2.2.1. The Bulk Power Grid
3.1.2.1.2. Individual Distribution Grids
3.1.2.3. The need to pinpoint EV charging for e¥ ective grid management
3.1.2.4. Retail Rate Design (Pricing) for EVs
3.1.2.4.1. Questions utilities are facing in regard to EV rates
3.1.2.4.2. Progressive Utilities' EV Pricing Pilots
3.1.2.4.3. Electric Rates vs. Gasoline Prices
3.1.2.4.3.1. EV Total Costs: Capital and Fuel Costs
3.1.2.4.4. U.S. National Energy Policy related to electric vehicle
rates
3.1.2.4.5. New Business Models for EV Rate Design
4. THE INTERSECTION OF SMART GRID AND EVS
4.1. Infrastructure Build-Out
4.1.1. Smart Grid Technology Evolution to Support EVs
4.1.1.1. Total U.S. Smart Grid Market Forecast: 2010-2015
4.1.2. Charging Infrastructure
4.1.2.1. Home Charging
4.1.2.2. Public Charging
4.1.2.3. Retail & Commercial Charging
4.1.3. Standards - The Digital Handshake Between EVs and the Utility Grid
4.1.3.1. SAE J1772 - The published standard for Level 1 & 2 charging
4.1.3.1.1. “4G” and Cloud Computing
4.1.3.2. The expected SAE J1772 “Hybrid Connector” Standard
4.1.3.3. Emerging Standards for EV Networking
4.1.3.3.1. Getting to J2931 (via J2836 & J2847)
4.1.3.3.2. Smart Charging Functionality
4.1.4. Distribution Grid Upgrades
4.1.4.1. Transformer and customer equipment upgrades
4.1.4.1.1. Transformer Sizing Upgrades
4.1.4.1.2. Volt/VAR concerns and the need for transformer sensors
and dynamic devices
4.1.4.1.3. Customer premise upgrades
4.1.4.2. Correcting Phase Imbalances
4.1.4.2.1. The existing voltage challenge
4.1.4.2.2. A new market for dynamic grid devices
4.1.4.3. Reconfi guring the Laterals for Auto-Sense and Voltage
Correction
4.1.4.3.1. Evolving to a new generation of switching
4.1.4.4. Advanced Uses for Capacitor Banks and Voltage Regulators
4.1.4.5. Sequence Changing and Conductor Sizing
5. EV GLOBAL FORECAST AND RAMPING FACTORS
5.1. Global EV Growth Factors and Analysis
5.1.1. A Changing Landscape for OEMS
5.1.2. EV Forecasting: A Range of Opinions for 2020
5.1.3. The United States
5.1.3.1. The New CAFE Standards
5.1.3.2. DOE ATVM Loans
5.1.3.3. American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA)
5.1.4. Europe
5.1.5. China
5.1.6. India and Emerging Nations
5.1.7. Global Production Volumes
5.1.8. Fleets will be the real early adopters of EVs
5.2. GTM Global EV Sales Forecast
5.2.1. Global Forecast for EVs
5.2.2. U.S. EV Forecast by State
5.2.2.1. California
5.2.2.2. New York
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2-1: 2011 Smart Grid Vendor Taxonomy
Figure 2-2: Three Waves of Consumer Adoption for EVs
Figure 2-3: A Comparison Of Fuel Costs For Evs Vs. Traditional Cars
(Energy Cost per Mile)
Figure 2-4: Primary motivations for switching to electric transportation
Figure 2-5: Pictorial Comparison of an EV, PHEV and Traditional Vehicle
Figure 2-6: Fueling options for HEV, PHEV and EV
Figure 3-1: Technology gaps across various smart grid applications
Figure 3-2: A smart grid visualized
Figure 3-3: NIST Smart Grid Conceptual Model - The Customer Domain
Figure 3-4: The Load Requirements of EVs vs. the Average Residential
Structure
Figure 3-5: 2010 U.S. electricity consumption with 10 million plug-in
vehicles
Figure 3-6: International Comparison of Load Factors
Figure 3-7: Planning Reserve Margins on the Increase: NERC' s 2019
Projected On-Peak Planning Reserve Margins
Figure 3-8: The Recession: Comparison of U.S. Summer Peak Demand Forecasts
by NERC (2008, 2009, 2010)
Figure 3-9: U.S. Regional Spot Prices 2007-2009 ($/MhW) Severely Lower
Due to Economic Recession
Figure 3-10: EVs Impact on Distribution Grid Infrastructure
Figure 3-11: Probable and Worst Case Scenarios Due to Higher EV
penetrations
Figure 3-12: Best Case Scenario due to Higher EV penetrations
Figure 3-13: Transformer Overloading Due to Electric Vehicles
Figure 3-14: Questions that Public Utility Commissions are addressing for
the fi rst time
Figure 3-15: Example of a Utility O¥ ering Optional Time-of-Use Rates for
EVs
Figure 3-16: The HECO EV Rate Example
Figure 3-17: Electricity vs. Gasoline/Diesel in the U.S. (Price per Gallon
Equivalent vs. Price per Gallon)
Figure 3-18: Average Retail Price of Electricity to End Customers by
End-Use Sector, by Region, October 2010 and 2009 (cents per kilowatt-hour)
Figure 3-19: Comparison of Current Capital Costs and Fuel Costs Per Mile
Figure 3-20: New Billing Models for EVs - The NRG “eVgo”
example
Figure 4-1: Five Steps of Smart Grid Upgrades to Support EVs
Figure 4-2: U.S. Smart Grid Market Forecast 2010 -2015
Figure 4-3: The Three Levels of Charging for EVs
Figure 4-4: Home Chargers - Level 2 Chargers
Figure 4-5: Public Charge Points - Level 2 Chargers
Figure 4-7: Charging Stations Planned for the City of Houston
Figure 4-8: EV Charge Points Located at Retail Parking Lots
Figure 4-9: Fleet vehicles transition to electric
Figure 4-10: Solar EV Charging Stations
Figure 4-11: SAE Logo
Figure 4-12: Level 2 Chargers
Figure 4-13: Summary of SAE Standards for EV and Utility Grid
Communications
Figure 4-14: The domain of SAE J2931, as it relates to physical domains,
communication protocols and new capabilities
Figure 4-15: Smart Charging - Various Functionality, Control and
Communication Strategy
Figure 4-16: Five Steps of Smart Grid Upgrades to Support EVs
Figure 4-17: Typical Circuit Panel and Branch Circuits
Figure 4-18: Phase Imbalance - Voltage Spike Due to Distributed Generation
Figure 4-19: Phase Imbalance - Voltage Sag due to Electric Vehicles
Figure 4-20: Growing Market for Capacitor Banks (left) and Voltage
Regulators (right)
Figure 4-21: Example of a possible substation-to-edge voltage sequence
Figure 4-22: Typical Conductor Wires
Figure 4-23: American Wire Gauge Table
Figure 4-24: Possible Early Adopters of Greentech
Figure 4-25: The “Net-Zero” Home
Figure 5-1: The Nissan Leaf and the Tata Nano
Figure 5-2: Top 10 Global Auto Manufactures and Market Share
Figure 5-3: Predictions for EV market share in 2020
Figure 5-4: DOE' s Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing (ATMV) Loan
Program
Figure 5-5: ARRA Stimulus Awards for Electric Transportation
Figure 5-6: A Gallon of Gasoline vs. a “Gallon” of Electricity
Figure 5-7: China vs. the U.S. in Electric Vehicles
Figure 5-8: Global Petrol Price Comparison (for 33 Cities)
Figure 5-9: Currently Announced North American EV and PHEV Production
Capacity
Figure 5-10: Global EV Production Forecast (2009-2016)
Figure 5-11: The Case for Fleets
Figure 5-12: Global EV Sales 2011-2016
Figure 5-13: Global EV Sales, 2011-2016 (Cumulative)
Figure 5-14: The Growth of China' s Vehicle Market - Light-Duty Stock by
Region in the Years 2007, 2015, 2030
Figure 5-15: Expected EV Sales in the Top 20 U.S. States
Figure 5-16: EV Penetration by State, 2011-2016 (Cumulative)
Figure 5-17: Top U.S. States for Toyota Prius Sales (2000-2007)
Figure 5-18: Favorable Prices for EVs in the U.S. Market
Figure 5-19: PG&E' s High, Middle and Low EV Forecasts, 2010-2020
Figure 5-20: Electric Vehicle Projections in NYC
The Networked EV: The Convergence of Smart Grids and Electric Vehicles published by Greentech Media Inc. in March 15, 2011. This report price starts from US $ 2995.
