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Worldwide Hard Disk Drive 2014-2018 Forecast: A New Era for HDD Industry Revenue Growth Begins

  • Published:
  • 53 Pages
  • IDC

This IDC study provides insight into hard disk drive industry shipments and revenue for the 2014-2018 period. Trends in end-market devices affecting HDD demand are assessed while HDD technology advancements are factored into expected average HDD capacities. The HDD industry structure and relevant industry dynamics along with expected new HDD product features are used to estimate average sales prices and industry revenue.

John Rydning, IDC's research vice president, Hard Disk Drives, says, "The HDD industry has entered a new era where revenue growth is possible without depending upon HDD unit shipment growth. Overall HDD unit demand will likely remain relatively flat through 2018, but industry revenue should grow modestly, exceeding $40 billion by 2017. Given the slow areal density growth outlook, HDD customers will need to adjust to the reality of much slower HDD price declines, especially for some enterprise products. On the surface, it may appear to be a rather dull era for the HDD industry. But in reality, HDD industry participants will have to continue to work at breakneck speed to bring new HDD technologies and nuanced product features to market to support diversifying customer storage requirements, especially by enterprise HDD customers."

Table of Contents

IDC Opinion

In This Study

  • Methodology

Situation Overview

  • Hard Disk Drive Industry Dynamics
    • 2013 Year in Review: The Aging HDD Industry Matures, Stabilizes
    • HDD Vendor Share: Steady from 2012 to 2013
    • Hard Disk Drive Fundamental Demand Drivers
    • Hard Disk Drive Demand Inhibitors

Future Outlook

  • Forecast and Assumptions
    • PC Market Dynamics Affecting HDD Demand
      • Solid State Hybrid Drives: Slow Adoption of the Fast HDD Storage Solution
    • Enterprise Market Dynamics Affecting HDD Demand
    • Personal and Entry-Level Storage Market Dynamics
    • Worldwide 2013-2018 HDD Market Forecast
    • Assumptions
  • Market Context

Essential Guidance

  • Actions to Consider

Learn More

  • Related Research
  • Appendix
    • Worldwide HDD Forecast by Form Factor: Shipments, Revenue, and Petabytes by HDD Segment and Market Consumption Category
  • Definitions
    • Areal Density
    • Average Sales Price or Average Unit Price
    • Hard Disk Drives
    • Solid State Hybrid Drives
    • Disks/Platters
    • Hard Disk Drive Gigabytes, Terabytes, and Petabytes
    • Solid State Drives
    • Unit Shipments
    • Value of Shipments or Revenue
  • Methodology
    • Historical Market Values and Exchange Rates
  • Synopsis

List of Tables

  • Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments by Form Factor, 2012 and 2013 (000)
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Revenue by Form Factor, 2012 and 2013 ($M)
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Petabyte Shipments by Form Factor, 2012 and 2013 (PB)
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments by Vendor, 2012 and 2013: All HDD Form Factors
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Revenue by Vendor, 2012 and 2013: All HDD Form Factors
  • Table: Worldwide Performance-Optimized 2.5in. HDD Products, 2013-2018: 10,000rpm
  • Table: Worldwide Performance-Optimized 2.5in. HDD Products, 2013-2018: 15,000rpm
  • Table: Worldwide Capacity-Optimized 3.5in. HDD Products, 2013-2018
  • Table: Worldwide Capacity-Optimized 2.5in. HDD Products, 2013-2018
  • Table: Worldwide Mobile 2.5in. HDD Products, 2013-2018: 9.5mm z-height
  • Table: Worldwide Mobile 2.5in. HDD Products, 2013-2018: 7.0mm z-height
  • Table: Worldwide Mobile 2.5in. HDD Products, 2013-2018: 5.0mm z-height
  • Table: Worldwide Desktop 3.5in. HDD Products, 2013-2018
  • Table: Worldwide NAND Capacity Mix for Mobile 2.5in. Hybrid SSHD, 2013-2018 (%)
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Shipment Share by Segment, 2013-2018 (%)
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments by Major Application, 2009-2018 (000)
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Petabyte Shipments by Major Application, 2009-2018 (PB)
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Revenue by Major Application, 2009-2018 ($M)
  • Table: Top 3 Assumptions for the Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Market, 2014-2018
  • Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Market, 2014-2018
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments and Revenue, 2009-2018: Comparison of October 2013 and May 2014 Forecasts
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments by Form Factor and Consumption Category, 2013-2018 (000)
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Petabyte Shipments by Form Factor and Consumption Category, 2013-2018 (PB)
  • Table: Worldwide HDD Revenue by Form Factor and Consumption Category, 2013-2018 ($M)

List of Figures

  • Figure: Worldwide HDD (All Form Factors) and Enterprise HDD Blended Average Sales Price, 2013-2018
  • Figure: Worldwide New Notebook PC Shipment Share by Storage Device Type, 2013-2018
  • Figure: Worldwide New Desktop PC Shipment Share by Storage Device Type, 2013-2018
  • Figure: Worldwide New PC (Desktop and Notebook Combined) Shipment Share by Storage Device Type, 2013-2018
  • Figure: Worldwide HDD Shipments for Enterprise Applications by Form Factor and Spin Speed, 2013-2018
  • Figure: Worldwide HDD Shipments and Revenue, 2009-2018: Comparison of October 2013 and May 2014 Forecasts
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