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Worldwide Hard Disk Drive 2013-2017 Forecast: Adjusting to the IT Industry's Transformation

  • Published:
  • 52 Pages
  • IDC

This IDC study provides insight into hard disk drive industry shipments and revenue for the 2013-2017 forecast period. Trends in end-market devices affecting HDD demand are assessed while HDD technology advancements are factored into expected average HDD capacities. The HDD industry structure and relevant industry dynamics along with expected new HDD product features are used to estimate average sales prices and industry revenue.

John Rydning, IDC's research vice president, Hard Disk Drives, says, "As the transition to the 3rd platform for IT accelerates, the HDD industry will be required to adjust to changing market demands and new opportunities. The enterprise market will provide a growing opportunity for HDD unit and terabyte shipments, but less of an opportunity for revenue growth as enterprise datacenters increasingly shift to using a higher percentage of capacity-optimized rather than performance-optimized HDDs. Overall HDD unit demand and revenue should remain flat through 2017. But, the remaining HDD vendors will have to work hard to prolong the use of HDDs in PCs with hybrid SSHDs and to accelerate the adoption of personal storage devices, especially in developing regions. In characterizing the next five for the HDD industry, it will be an era of relatively slow HDD areal density growth, stable HDD ASPs, and strong profitability for the remaining three HDD vendors."

Table of Contents


IDC Opinion


In This Study


  • Methodology

Situation Overview

  • Hard Disk Drive Industry Dynamics

    • 2012 in Review: A Year of Recovery, Consolidation, and Extracting Value from HDD Technology

    • Hard Disk Drive Fundamental Demand Drivers

    • Hard Disk Drive Demand Inhibitors

Future Outlook

  • Forecast and Assumptions

    • Worldwide 2012-2017 HDD Market Forecast

      • Worldwide HDD Forecast by Form Factor: Shipments, Revenue, and Petabytes

    • Summary of Worldwide 2013-2017 HDD Market Forecast Assumptions

  • Market Context

Essential Guidance

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  • Related Research

  • Methodology

    • Historical Market Values and Exchange Rates

  • Definitions

    • Areal Density

    • Average Sales Price or Average Unit Price

    • Hard Disk Drives

    • Hybrid Solid State Hard Drives

    • Disks/Platters

    • Hard Disk Drive Gigabytes, Terabytes, and Petabytes

    • Solid State Drives

    • Unit Shipments

    • Value of Shipments or Revenue

  • Synopsis

Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments by Form Factor, 2011 and 2012 (000)

Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments by Vendor, 2011 and 2012: All HDD Form Factors


Table: Worldwide HDD Revenue by Vendor, 2011 and 2012: All HDD Form Factors


Table: Worldwide Performance-Optimized 2.5in. HDD Products, 2012-2017: 10,000rpm


Table: Worldwide Performance-Optimized 2.5in. HDD Products, 2012-2017: 15,000rpm


Table: Worldwide Capacity-Optimized 3.5in. HDD Products, 2012-2017


Table: Worldwide Capacity-Optimized 2.5in. HDD Products, 2012-2017


Table: Worldwide Mobile 2.5in. HDD Products, 2012-2017: 9.5mm z-height


Table: Worldwide Mobile 2.5in. HDD Products, 2012-2017: 7.0mm z-height


Table: Worldwide Mobile 2.5in. HDD Products, 2012-2017: 5.0mm z-height


Table: Worldwide Desktop 3.5in. HDD Products, 2012-2017


Table: Worldwide NAND Capacity Mix for Hybrid SSHDs, 2012-2017 (%)


Table: Worldwide HDD Terabyte Shipment Share by Segment, 2012-2017 (%)


Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments by Major Application, 2008-2017 (000)


Table: Worldwide HDD Revenue by Major Application, 2008-2017 ($M)


Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments by Form Factor and Consumption Category, 2012-2017 (000)


Table: Worldwide HDD Revenue by Form Factor and Consumption Category, 2012-2017 ($M)


Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments by Form Factor and Consumption Category, 2012-2017 (PB)


Table: Top 3 Assumptions for the Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Market, 2013-2017


Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Hard Disk Drive Market, 2013-2017


Table: Worldwide HDD Shipments and Revenue, 2008-2017: Comparison of October 2012 and April 2013 Forecasts


Figure: Worldwide HDD Average Sale Prices, 1Q11-4Q12


Figure: HDD Areal Density Growth and HDD Technology "S" Curves, 1995-2020


Figure: Worldwide New Notebook PC Shipment Share by Storage Device Type, 2012-2017


Figure: Worldwide New Desktop PC Shipment Share by Storage Device Type, 2012-2017


Figure: Worldwide SED-Equipped Commercial Notebook PC Shipments, 2012-2017


Figure: Worldwide HDD Shipments and Revenue, 2008-2017: Comparison of October 2012 and April 2013 Forecasts


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