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Worldwide Smartphone 2015-2019 Forecast and Analysis

  • Published:
  • 30 Pages
  • IDC

This IDC study presents the five-year forecast for smartphone shipments worldwide by device vendors. It is part of IDC's continuing research with respect to smartphones. The findings in this document are based on information gathered from primary and secondary sources during the past three months.

The worldwide smartphone market will reach a total of 1.5 billion units shipped in 2015, up 11.9% from the 1.3 billion smartphone units shipped in 2014. Many of the same drivers will be in play: broad and deep selection of smartphones from which to choose, prices fitting nearly every budget, and a steady refresh rate throughout the forecast period. By 2019, total smartphone shipment volumes will reach 2.0 billion smartphone units, resulting in a five-year CAGR of 8.5%.

"The future of the smartphone market is sound," says Ramon Llamas, research manager with IDC's Mobile Phones team. "What will bear close observation is the constantly shifting operating system landscape. Android is expected to account for the vast majority of volumes, followed next by Apple's iOS. However, both of these will see market share losses as other platforms emerge and gain their footing. Moreover, prices are expected to decline throughout the forecast period. All of this translates into a myriad of devices and experiences for end users."

Table of Contents

IDC Opinion

In This Study

  • Methodology
    • Primary Data Sources
    • Secondary Sources
    • IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker

Situation Overview

  • 4Q14 Overview
  • 2014 Overview

Future Outlook

  • Forecast and Assumptions
    • Assumptions
    • Forecast by Operating System
      • Android
      • BlackBerry OS
      • Firefox
      • iOS
      • Linux
      • Sailfish
      • Symbian
      • Tizen
      • Windows Phone
    • Forecast Comparison: Smartphones Versus Feature Phones
    • Forecast by Region
    • Smartphone ASP Forecast
  • Market Context

Essential Guidance

  • Low-Cost Smartphones Drive the Market Going Forward
  • Pay Close Attention to 3G and 4G Opportunities
  • Focus on Natural User Interfaces and Gestures
  • Smartphone as Remote Control to IoT

Learn More

  • Related Research
  • Synopsis

List of Tables

  • Table: Top 3 Assumptions for the Worldwide Smartphone Market, 2015-2019
  • Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the Worldwide Smartphone Market, 2015-2019
  • Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share and Shipments by Operating System, 2014-2019
  • Table: Worldwide Feature Phone and Smartphone Shipments, 2014-2019 (M)
  • Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Region, 2014-2019 (M)
  • Table: Worldwide Smartphone ASP by Operating System, 2014-2019 ($)
  • Table: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Region, 2010-2019: Comparison of December 2014 and March 2015 Forecasts (M)

List of Figures

  • Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Top 5 Vendor, 4Q13 and 4Q14
  • Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Operating System, 4Q13 and 4Q14
  • Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Top 5 Vendor, 2013 and 2014
  • Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Operating System, 2013 and 2014
  • Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Operating System, 2014-2019
  • Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Operating System, 2014-2019
  • Figure: Worldwide Feature Phone and Smartphone Shipments, 2014-2019
  • Figure: Worldwide Feature Phone and Smartphone Shipment Share, 2014-2019
  • Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments by Region, 2014-2019
  • Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipment Share by Region, 2014-2019
  • Figure: Worldwide Smartphone ASP by Operating System, 2014-2019
  • Figure: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments, 2010-2019: Comparison of December 2014 and March 2015 Forecasts
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