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2010 3DTV Forecast Report: A Comprehensive Worldwide Forecast of 3D Television Unit Sales by Region and Technology

The Need:

CES 2010 was a watershed for developments related to 3DTV. Many TV brands announced their product lines, which included nearly 20 models for 2010. Major content creators like Discovery, DirecTV and ESPN announced plans to roll out 3D channels and services in 2010 and 2011. Cable operators are aggressively evaluating the roll out of services in 2010 too, while 3D movies in the theaters are a huge hit (look at the results of Avatar). All of the key ingredients for a 3DTV infrastructure and consumer service are in place, or about to be in place. 2010 will see significant excitement around 3D and the use of this content on TVs in the home. Therefore, a report that fully evaluates this space to provide a comprehensive and authoritative 3DTV forecast is needed by many players in the full 3DTV ecosystem.

Report Objective:

The objective of this report is to provide an authoritative 3DTV forecast for anyone with an interest in this exploding market opportunity. Other 3DTV forecasts already exist, but we wanted to produce the most thorough, well-researched and well-reasoned forecast to date. By providing details of our research, assumptions and forecast methodology, we allow readers to judge for themselves the strength and validity of the forecast.

We also wanted to provide a forecast that is both regional (we have 7 regions for the world) and provides a breakdown by the various 3D technologies that can be or will be used for 3DTVs (we look at 7 different technologies). The forecast provides a technology breakdown for each of the seven regions.

The ultimate objective of this forecast is to provide decision makers with a trustworthy forecast that can help them make business, investment and product planning decisions.

Highlights:

  • Total Available Market
    • Internal calculations based on TVs sales and replacement rates, plus household calculations by country reveal a Total Available Market (TAM) for TVs that is within less than 1% of other market research firm' s forecasts
  • Penetration Models
    • Nearly two dozen products examined for best models to use for 3DTV adoption
    • Penetration models used to determine upside (optimistic) and base (conservative) forecast ranges based on historical data
  • Market Development Analysis lists assumptions by year for the following parameters:
    • Packaged Media Titles
    • 3D Theatrical releases
    • Pay Per View events
    • Video on Demand channels
    • Cable / Satellite channels
    • Internet 3D Delivery
    • Terrestrial Broadcast 3D channels
    • Real time & Off-line 2D-to-3D conversion
    • Brand Support
    • 3D Glasses
    • Overall TV trends and strategies
  • Technology Specific Price-Performance-Competitive Analysis
    • Done for RPTV, LCD (x-pol, active retarder, page flipping, autostereoscopic), PDP and OLED
    • Includes assumptions by year for pricing strategy, performance and functionality, brand support, market position, upside and downside potential
  • Consumer Expectations Analysis
    • Based on defining key parameters for consumer buying decision and satisfaction with 3DTV
    • Each parameter is rated by importance and ability to meet the expectations of the consumer.
    • Scatter plot of results indicates areas of concern and opportunity as well as general level of market adoption.
    • Charts created for technology-independent factors in 3DTV adoption and for each 3DTV technology.
    • Charts are created for 2009, 2011, 2013 and 2015 to see progression in market and acceptance conditions
  • Regional and Distribution Factors
    • Limited models in market for a limited time
    • Limited geographic distribution
    • Slower market development factors (like India and underdeveloped rest of world)
  • Final Forecasts
    • Top level
    • Top level by technology
    • Top level by regions
    • Regions by technology

Table of Contents

1. Introduction

2. Executive Summary

  • 2.1. Forecasts
  • 2.2. Key Take-Aways

3. Methodology

  • 3.1. Step-by-Step Methodology
    • 3.1.1. Tops-Down Approach
      • 3.1.1.1. Establish the Total Available Market (TAM)
      • 3.1.1.2. Evaluate and Select Penetration Models
      • 3.1.1.3. Develop Optimistic and Conservative Forecasts
    • 3.1.2. Bottoms-up Approach
      • 3.1.2.1. Market Development Analysis (Technology Independent)
      • 3.1.2.2. Price-Performance-Competitive Analysis (Technology Dependent)
      • 3.1.2.3. Consumer Expectations Analysis (Technology Dependent and Technology Independent)
    • 3.1.3. Final Forecasts Development
      • 3.1.3.1. Intermediate Forecasts (by Region and by Technology)
      • 3.1.3.2. Apply Regional and Distribution Factors
      • 3.1.3.3. Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Regional Forecasts
      • 3.1.3.4. Technology Forecasts by Region
      • 3.1.3.5. Validation
      • 3.1.3.6. Final Forecasts

4. 3DTV Analysis and Forecast Results

  • 4.1. Tops-Down Approach
    • 4.1.1. Top Level World Wide TV Forecast by Technology and Region
    • 4.1.2. Adjusted TAM Based on Size and Technology
    • 4.1.3. Penetration Models
  • 4.2. Bottoms-Up Approach
    • 4.2.1. Market Development Analysis (Technology Independent)
      • 4.2.1.1. Introduction
      • 4.2.1.2. Comment about Terrestrial Broadcast
      • 4.2.1.3. Glasses for 3DTV
      • 4.2.1.4. Content and Infrastructure Analysis
    • 4.2.2. Consumer Expectations Analysis (Technology Independent)
    • 4.2.3. Price Performance Competitive Analysis (Technology Dependent)
      • 4.2.3.1. DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping
      • 4.2.3.2. LCD: x-pol
      • 4.2.3.3. LCD: Page-Flipping
      • 4.2.3.4. LCD: Active Retarder
      • 4.2.3.5. Plasma: Page-Flipping
      • 4.2.3.6. OLED: Page-Flipping
      • 4.2.3.7. LCD Autostereoscopic
    • 4.2.4. Consumer Expectations Analysis (Technology Dependent)
      • 4.2.4.1. DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping
      • 4.2.4.2. LCD: x-pol
      • 4.2.4.3. LCD: Page-Flipping
      • 4.2.4.4. LCD: Active Retarder
      • 4.2.4.5. Plasma: Page-Flipping
      • 4.2.4.6. OLED: Page-Flipping
      • 4.2.4.7. LCD Autostereoscopic
    • 4.2.5. Consumer Expectations Analysis Scoring Summary
  • 4.3. Adjustments, Validation and Final Forecast Development
    • 4.3.1. Intermediate Forecasts
    • 4.3.2. Regional and Distribution Factors
      • 4.3.2.1. USA & Canada
      • 4.3.2.2. Europe
      • 4.3.2.3. Japan & Korea
      • 4.3.2.4. China
      • 4.3.2.5. India
      • 4.3.2.6. ROW Developed
      • 4.3.2.7. ROW Under-Developed
  • 4.4. Regional Forecasts
    • 4.4.1. Worldwide
    • 4.4.2. USA & Canada
    • 4.4.3. Europe
    • 4.4.4. Japan & Korea
    • 4.4.5. China
    • 4.4.6. India
    • 4.4.7. ROW Developed
    • 4.4.8. ROW Under-Developed
  • 4.5. Technology Forecasts by Region (Expected)
    • 4.5.1. LCD 3DTV Forecast by Region
      • 4.5.1.1. LCD: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region
      • 4.5.1.2. LCD: x-pol
      • 4.5.1.3. LCD: Active Retarder Forecast by Region
      • 4.5.1.4. LCD: Autostereoscopic Forecast by Region
    • 4.5.2. Plasma: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region
    • 4.5.3. OLED: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region
    • 4.5.4. DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region
  • 4.6. Rolled-up Forecasts

5. Appendix A: 3DTV Product Announcements

6. Appendix B: Technology Independent Criteria Definitions

7. Appendix C: Technology Dependent Criteria Definitions

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast
  • Figure 2: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast Expected by Region
  • Figure 3: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic
  • Figure 4: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected
  • Figure 5: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative
  • Figure 6: Worldwide LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology
  • Figure 7: Forecast Methodology Flowchart
  • Figure 8: Sample Meets Expectations vs. Importance Plot
  • Figure 9: Product Assessment Using the Evaluation Chart
  • Figure 10: Worldwide TV Forecast by Region
  • Figure 11: Adjusted Worldwide TAM (>30") by Technology
  • Figure 12: Adjusted USA & Canada TAM (>30") by Technology
  • Figure 13: Adjusted Europe TAM (>30") by Technology
  • Figure 14: Adjusted Japan & Korea TAM (>30") by Technology
  • Figure 15: Adjusted China TAM (>30") by Technology
  • Figure 16: Adjusted India TAM (>30") by Technology
  • Figure 17: Adjusted ROW Developed TAM (>30") by Technology
  • Figure 18: Adjusted ROW Under-Developed TAM (>30") by Technology
  • Figure 19: Consumer Electronics Household Penetration Curves Normalized to Year Zero
  • Figure 20: Consumer Electronics Penetration Curves Normalized to 50%
  • Figure 21: Consumer Expectations Analysis - General Issues - 2009
  • Figure 22: Consumer Expectations Analysis - General Issues - 2011
  • Figure 23: Consumer Expectations Analysis - General Issues - 2013
  • Figure 24: Consumer Expectations Analysis - General Issues - 2015
  • Figure 25: Consumer Expectations Analysis - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2009
  • Figure 26: Consumer Expectations Analysis - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2011
  • Figure 27: Consumer Expectations Analysis - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2013
  • Figure 28: Consumer Expectations Analysis - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2015
  • Figure 29: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: x-pol - 2009
  • Figure 30: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: x-pol - 2011
  • Figure 31: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: x-pol - 2013
  • Figure 32: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: x-pol - 2015
  • Figure 33: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2011
  • Figure 34: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2013
  • Figure 35: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2015
  • Figure 36: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Active Retarder - 2013
  • Figure 37: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Active Retarder - 2015
  • Figure 38: Consumer Expectations Analysis - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2009
  • Figure 39: Consumer Expectations Analysis - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2011
  • Figure 40: Consumer Expectations Analysis - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2013
  • Figure 41: Consumer Expectations Analysis - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2015
  • Figure 42: Consumer Expectations Analysis - OLED: Page-Flipping - 2013
  • Figure 43: Consumer Expectations Analysis - OLED: Page-Flipping - 2015
  • Figure 44: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Autostereoscopic - 2013
  • Figure 45: Consumer Expectations Analysis - LCD: Autostereoscopic - 2015
  • Figure 46: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast Expected by Region
  • Figure 47: USA & Canada 3DTV Forecast
  • Figure 48: USA & Canada 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic
  • Figure 49: USA & Canada 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected
  • Figure 50: USA & Canada 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative
  • Figure 51: USA & Canada LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology
  • Figure 52: Europe 3DTV Forecast
  • Figure 53: Europe 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic
  • Figure 54: Europe 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected
  • Figure 55: Europe 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative
  • Figure 56: Europe LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology
  • Figure 57: Japan & Korea 3DTV Forecast
  • Figure 58: Japan & Korea 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic
  • Figure 59: Japan & Korea 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected
  • Figure 60: Japan & Korea 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative
  • Figure 61: Japan & Korea LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology
  • Figure 62: China 3DTV Forecast
  • Figure 63: China 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic
  • Figure 64: China 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected
  • Figure 65: China 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative
  • Figure 66: China LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology
  • Figure 67: India 3DTV Forecast
  • Figure 68: India 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic
  • Figure 69: India 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected
  • Figure 70: India 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative
  • Figure 71: India LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology
  • Figure 72: ROW Developed 3DTV Forecast
  • Figure 73: ROW Developed 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic
  • Figure 74: ROW Developed 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected
  • Figure 75: ROW Developed 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative
  • Figure 76: ROW Developed LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology
  • Figure 77: ROW Under-Developed 3DTV Forecast
  • Figure 78: ROW Under-Developed Forecast by Technology - Optimistic
  • Figure 79: ROW Under-Developed 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected
  • Figure 80: ROW Under-Developed 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative
  • Figure 81: ROW Under-Developed LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology
  • Figure 82: LCD 3DTV Forecast by Region
  • Figure 83: LCD: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region
  • Figure 84: LCD: x-pol Forecast by Region
  • Figure 85: LCD: Active Retarder Forecast by Region
  • Figure 86: LCD: Autostereoscopic Forecast by Region
  • Figure 87: Plasma: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region
  • Figure 88: OLED: Page Flipping Forecast by Region
  • Figure 89: DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping Forecast by Region
  • Figure 90: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast
  • Figure 91: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Optimistic
  • Figure 92: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Expected
  • Figure 93: Worldwide 3DTV Forecast by Technology - Conservative
  • Figure 94: Worldwide LCD 3DTV Forecast Expected by Technology
  • Figure 95: 3DTV Product Announcements

Table of Tables

  • Table 1: Sample Criteria Definitions
  • Table 2: Sample Analysis Score
  • Table 3: 3D Glasses Assumptions
  • Table 4: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - 2009
  • Table 5: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - 2011
  • Table 6: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - 2013
  • Table 7: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - 2015
  • Table 8: Price Performance Competitive Analysis - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping
  • Table 9: Brand Support - LCD: x-pol
  • Table 10: Brand Support - LCD: Page-Flipping
  • Table 11: Brand Support - LCD: Active Retarder
  • Table 12: Brand Support - Plasma: Page-Flipping
  • Table 13: Brand Support - OLED: Page-Flipping
  • Table 14: Brand Support - LCD: Autostereoscopic
  • Table 15: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2009
  • Table 16: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2011
  • Table 17: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2013
  • Table 18: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - DLP-RPTV: Page-Flipping - 2015
  • Table 19: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: x-pol - 2009
  • Table 20: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: x-pol - 2011
  • Table 21: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: x-pol - 2013
  • Table 22: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: x-pol - 2015
  • Table 23: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2011
  • Table 24: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2013
  • Table 25: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Page-Flipping - 2015
  • Table 26: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Active Retarder - 2013
  • Table 27: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Active Retarder - 2015
  • Table 28: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2009
  • Table 29: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2011
  • Table 30: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2013
  • Table 31: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - Plasma: Page-Flipping - 2015
  • Table 32: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - OLED: Page-Flipping - 2013
  • Table 33: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - OLED: Page-Flipping - 2015
  • Table 34: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Autostereoscopic - 2013
  • Table 35: Consumer Expectations Analysis Score - LCD: Autostereoscopic - 2015
  • Table 36: Consumer Expectations Analysis Scoring Summary
  • Table 37: 3DTV Regional Brand Support
  • Table 38: Technology Independent Criteria Definitions
  • Table 39: Technology Dependent Criteria Definitions
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