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2012 Hybrid Projector Report: Forecasts, Human Factors, Technology and Market Factors for Projectors with Hybrid Solid State Illumination

The Need:

Hybrid projectors were first introduced commercially by Casio at CES in 2010 and have since been introduced by multiple additional vendors. These projectors have all used a laser-excited green phosphor instead of a lamp, LED or laser to produce the green light. Currently pure LED projectors cannot achieve sufficient output to enter this >2000 lumen market and lasers are too expensive for most end-users. Going forward, hybrid projectors are expected to cannibalize an increasing share of the lamp-based projector market. Projector manufacturers, LED, laser and lamp suppliers, optical component suppliers, module makers and others need to understand the upcoming changes in the projection market that hybrid projectors portend. This report is designed to address this need.

Careful evaluation of the technology, markets and end-user needs are required to create forecasts that are realistic. This sober and independent evaluation is required to understand and plan for developments in the hybrid projector market, as well as the market for projectors with solid state illumination in general.

Report Organization:

The market for mobile projectors with solid-state illumination can be broken into multiple market segments, as shown in the table below. This report addresses the hybrid projection market.

Table 1: Pic/Micro/Hybrid Projector Market Segments

SegmentPico/microTypical Key Specs in 2011Identifying Characteristic
1: ToyPico<5 lumen output,
<VGA resolution
Very low cost,
low performance
2: Smart phone handsetPico<15 lumen output,<1.5WSmall enough to fit in
a cell phone handset
3: Digital camerasPico<15 lumen output,
<1.5W,VGA or better resolution
Small enough to fit in
a point-and-shoot pocket camera
4: Stand-Alone PicoprojectorsPico<25 lumens*, <5WStand-alone system
that may or may not
include a media
player and/or game
5: Consumer microprojectorsMicro>5W, >25 lumens*,
VGA/WVGA or
higher resolution
Intended for
entertainment applications
6: Presentation microprojectorsMicro>5W, >50 lumens*,
SVGA or
higher resolution
Intended for business
presentation with
some crossover to
entertainment applications
7: Hybrid projectorsHybrid>200W, >2,000 Lumens,
SVGA or higher resolutions
Hybrid illumination.
In competition with
mainstream, HID
lamp-based projectors

*By 2016, the end of the study period, 5W solid state projectors are expected be able to produce about 100 Lumens. This will produce a “grey area” where it will be difficult to categorize a unit as a picoprojector or a microprojector. Insight Media will use a more-or-less arbitrary division point of 50 lumens.

Part 1 of this report covers the technology, human factors and market drivers that are common for all seven market segments. This common section has been extensively updated and expanded from the common section in previous reports to accommodate the higher output of hybrid projectors and to include new information that became available in 2012.

Part 2 of the report then takes a deep-dive into how this general information applies to hybrid projectors. The use of hybrid projectors in three key markets; education, business and the home, is examined in detail. Part 2 also provides optimistic, conservative and expected sales forecasts through 2017 for hybrid projectors. These forecasts involve both unit sales and overall industry revenue from retail sales.

Key Findings:

Some key findings of this report include:

  • The best way to group pico/micro projectors is by use-model rather than by technology.
  • Hybrid projectors have two key advantages over competitive lamp-based projectors:
    • Long life with no lamp replacement
    • Good colorimetry
  • Hybrid projectors have one key disadvantage compared to lamp-based projectors:
    • Higher initial purchase price. This purchase price differential is expected to decline but not disappear over the study period. (2010 - 2017).
  • The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for hybrid projectors can be lower than lamp-based projectors, especially in applications where the projectors get heavy use and more than one lamp replacement is anticipated.
  • DLP currently dominates the hybrid projector industry.
    • There is no known technical reason why hybrid illumination cannot be used by 3LCD, color sequential LCoS or 3-panel DLP or LCoS designs.
  • Hybrid projectors can currently achieve lumen outputs from 2000 - 4000 lumens:
    • The upper limit is expected to rise to 7000 lumens by 2017.
    • In general, end users compare hybrid projectors to lamp-based projectors when making a purchase decision and require hybrids to have all the same features as a lamp-based projector of the same lumen output.
  • Most hybrid projector sales are expected to be in three key market segments:
    • Education, where the long life and low TCO is especially prized
    • Business applications, especially ones where the projectors are heavily used
    • Home use where they will be popular for TV, gaming, home theater and other applications.
  • The range of forecasts for hybrid projectors (from our conservative to our optimistic) in the out-years of this study is fairly large. Insight Media sees three major factors contributing to this range:
    • Price and availability of large, direct view displays
    • Lamp lifetime increases in projectors that reduce the need for hybrid technology
    • Speed of the penetration of hybrid technology into the mainstream projection market.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1. Part 1: Common Section Executive Summary
    • 1.1.1. Market Segment Analysis
    • 1.1.2. Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Human Factors Analysis
    • 1.1.3. Enabling Technology
  • 1.2. Part 2: Hybrid Projector Executive Summary
    • 1.2.1. Technology for Hybrid Projectors
    • 1.2.2. Markets and User Feedback for Hybrid Projectors
    • 1.2.3. Technologies Competitive with Hybrid Projectors
    • 1.2.4. Hybrid Projector Forecasts

2. Introduction & Methodology

3. Part 1: Common Section

3. Market Segment Analysis

  • 3.1. What are Pico and Micro Projectors?
  • 3.2. A Brief History of Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projectors
  • 3.3. Market Data Uncertainty
  • 3.4. Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Use Models
    • 3.4.1. Picoprojector Use Models
    • 3.4.2. Microprojector Use Models
    • 3.4.3. Hybrid Projector Use Models
  • 3.5. Market Segments for Pico- and Micro- Projectors
  • 3.6. Market Trends Through 2017
    • 3.6.1. Market Pull vs. Technology Push
    • 3.6.2. Lumen Output Increases
    • 3.6.3. Supply Chain Consolidation
    • 3.6.4. Focused Designs
  • 3.7. Milestone Roadmap
  • 3.8. Technologies In Competition with Mobile Projectors
    • 3.8.1. Low-cost Mainstream Projectors
    • 3.8.2. Direct-View LCD and OLED Mobile Displays
    • 3.8.3. e-Paper including Rollable and Foldable Displays
    • 3.8.4. Transflective Displays
    • 3.8.5. Head Mounted Displays
    • 3.8.6. Non-portable Displays

4. Pico/Micro Projector Human Factors Analysis

  • 4.1. Mobile Projector Colorimetry
    • 4.1.1. Wavelength Choice for LEDs
    • 4.1.2. Wavelength Choice for Lasers
  • 4.2. Projector Luminance, Image Brightness, Image Size and Contrast
    • 4.2.1. Helmholtz-Kohlrausch Effect
  • 4.3. Resolution
    • 4.3.1. Text Legibility
  • 4.4. Mobile Projector Laser Safety

5. Enabling Technology Analysis

  • 5.1. Valid Technology Combinations
  • 5.2. Etendue and Power Limited Mobile Projector Systems
    • 5.2.1. Etendue Limitations
    • 5.2.2. Power Limitations
  • 5.3. Image Sources
    • 5.3.1. Scanned Mirror Systems
    • 5.3.2. Micromirror Arrays
    • 5.3.3. LCoS CFA
    • 5.3.4. Color Sequential LCoS
    • 5.3.5. Other Approaches to Pico/Micro Projection
  • 5.4. Illumination Sources for Pico, Micro and Hybrid Projectors
    • 5.4.1. Polarization and Collection Efficiency
    • 5.4.2. RGB LED Illumination
    • 5.4.3. White LED Illumination
    • 5.4.4. Laser Illumination
    • 5.4.5. Hybrid Illumination Systems
  • 5.5. Power for Mobile Projectors
    • 5.5.1. General Power Requirements
    • 5.5.2. Batteries for Mobile Projectors
  • 5.6. Projector/Source Connectivity
    • 5.6.1. Internal Connections
    • 5.6.2. Wired Connections
    • 5.6.3. Wireless Connections
  • 5.7. Pico/Micro Projector Manufacturing Issues
  • 5.8. Hybrid Projector Manufacturing Issues

6. Other Applications

  • 6.1. Retail Use
  • 6.2. Automotive
  • 6.3. Aviation
  • 6.4. Industrial
  • 6.5. Medical
  • 6.6. Other Potential Applications

7. Part 2: Hybrid Market Segment

7. Hybrid Projector Competitive Analysis

  • 7.1. Current Hybrid Projectors
  • 7.2. Technology for Hybrid Projector Systems
    • 7.2.1. Technology for Hybrid Illumination
    • 7.2.2. Technology of Existing Hybrid Projectors
    • 7.2.3. Evolution of Hybrid Projectors
  • 7.3. Application of Hybrid Projectors
    • 7.3.1. Educational Applications
    • 7.3.2. Business Applications
    • 7.3.3. Home Applications
  • 7.4. Competitive Analysis of Hybrid Projectors
    • 7.4.1. Competition from Lamp-Based Mainstream Projectors
    • 7.4.2. Competition from High-output LED Projectors
    • 7.4.3. Competition from Direct View Displays
    • 7.4.4. Competition by Market Segment
  • 7.5. End User Feedback and Use Models for Hybrid Projectors
  • 7.6. Technology and Markets Trend Analysis
  • 7.7. Hybrid Projector Purchase Decision Factors

8. Hybrid Projector Forecast

  • 8.1. Forecasting Method
  • 8.2. The Projector Market
    • 8.2.1. Market Segmentation by Application
    • 8.2.2. Market Segmentation by Brightness
    • 8.2.3. Market Segmentation by Price
    • 8.2.4. Total Available Market (TAM) Analysis
  • 8.3. Sales Penetration Analysis
    • 8.3.1. Projector Market Penetration Curves
    • 8.3.2. Hybrid Projector Penetration Curves

9. Hybrid Projector Forecast Results

  • 9.1. Hybrid Projector Unit Forecasts
  • 9.2. Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range
  • 9.3. Hybrid Projector Revenue Forecasts
    • 9.3.1. Projector Price Development
    • 9.3.2. Hybrid Projector Price Premium
    • 9.3.3. Hybrid Projector Forecast
  • 9.4. Market Upside Potential

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall
  • Figure 2: Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast
  • Figure 3: Hybrid Projector Industry Revenue
  • Figure 4: Four Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2008
  • Figure 5: Five Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2009
  • Figure 6: Sample Pico & Micro Projectors from CES 2010
  • Figure 7: Sample Pico & Micro Projectors from CES 2011
  • Figure 8: Hybrid Projectors
  • Figure 9: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles
  • Figure 10: Mainstream Projector for Under $400
  • Figure 11: Direct-View Displays In Competition with Pico & Micro Projectors
  • Figure 12: iPad Connected with a 3M Picoprojector
  • Figure 13: Amazon Kindle e-Book Readers
  • Figure 14: Qualcomm Mirasol 5.7" display at CES 2011
  • Figure 15: Flexible OLEDs
  • Figure 16: Stretchable OLED from UCLA
  • Figure 17: Transflective Pixel Qi Display
  • Figure 18: Transflective Pixel Qi Display as an External Display Module
  • Figure 19: Example HMDs
  • Figure 20: Large Screen Displays at Lower Price Points than Projectors
  • Figure 21: Colorimetry of RGB LED and Laser Projectors
  • Figure 22: LED Optical Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies
  • Figure 23: LED Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies
  • Figure 24: LED Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies
  • Figure 25: Laser Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies
  • Figure 26: Laser Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies
  • Figure 27: Laser Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies
  • Figure 28: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen (10:1 Contrast)
  • Figure 29: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen (10:1 Contrast)
  • Figure 30: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall (10:1 Contrast)
  • Figure 31: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall (10:1 Contrast)
  • Figure 32: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen (40:1 Contrast)
  • Figure 33: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen (40:1 Contrast)
  • Figure 34: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall (40:1 Contrast)
  • Figure 35: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall (40:1 Contrast)
  • Figure 36: Brightness Enhancement of LED vs Lamp Projectors
  • Figure 37: Laser Safety Evaluation Geometry
  • Figure 38: Laser Safety Evaluations
  • Figure 39: Etendue Definition
  • Figure 40: Etendue with uniform cone angle
  • Figure 41: Etendue conservation with a simple lens
  • Figure 42: MicroVision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner
  • Figure 43: Two Scanning Mirror System from bTendo
  • Figure 44: Funai Picoprojector with Nippon Signal Module
  • Figure 45: Eco Scan Two-Mirror Pico Module from Nippon Signal
  • Figure 46: Members of the DLP Pico Family of Microdisplays
  • Figure 47: Himax CFA LCoS Design
  • Figure 48: Himax CFA LCoS Products
  • Figure 49: Pulse Width Modulation
  • Figure 50: Micron Imagers
  • Figure 51: Products in the Syndiant Suite at CES 2011
  • Figure 52: Syndiant Microdisplays
  • Figure 53: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Panels
  • Figure 54: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Designs
  • Figure 55: Layout of a Light Blue Optics Projector
  • Figure 56: Hologram, Subframe and Frame in a LBO Projector
  • Figure 57: LBO Demonstration Projectors
  • Figure 58: Transmissive LCD Panels for the Display Photonic Systems Architecture
  • Figure 59: Block Diagram of Display Photonic Systems Architecture
  • Figure 60: ImagineOptix PG-Based Pico Module
  • Figure 61: Polarization Recycling in the MM200 Module from 3M
  • Figure 62: LED Recycling from Wavien
  • Figure 63: LED Light Collection with a Color-combining Prism from Syndiant
  • Figure 64: LED combiner from Optoma PK-101
  • Figure 65: Two Channel illumination path
  • Figure 66: Typical Non-Linearities of LEDs
  • Figure 67: Phosphor vs Conventional Green LEDs from Osram
  • Figure 68: Spectra of the Osram Oslon LX Series
  • Figure 69: Citizen LEDs Compared to Other Lamp Types
  • Figure 70: White LED from 3M MPro 110 Picoprojector
  • Figure 71: Red Light Increased by Recycling
  • Figure 72: Efficiency of Blue, Green and Red Lasers
  • Figure 73: Pico/Micro Projectors With Direct Green Lasers
  • Figure 74: Laser Speckle Reduction with FLC Cell
  • Figure 75: Focus-Free Microdisplay-Based Laser Projector
  • Figure 76: Hybrid Illumination Systems From Casio
  • Figure 77: Block Diagram for a Himax Picoprojector Module
  • Figure 78: Pico/Micro Projectors with iPod Docks
  • Figure 79: PicoPix 1020 from Philips/Sagemcom
  • Figure 80: USB 2.0 A/B sockets
  • Figure 81: Video and Power via a USB 3.0 Connection
  • Figure 82: 3M MPro 180 Projector with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth
  • Figure 83: Mobile Connectivity with WHDI and Amimon Low-Power Chips
  • Figure 84: ViewSonic Wi-Fi Connectivity
  • Figure 85: IBM's Vision of a 60GHz Wireless Home Network
  • Figure 86: WirelessHD Wireless Video Area Network (“WVAN”) Example
  • Figure 87: Proposed Usage Models by the WiGig Alliance
  • Figure 88: Example Pico/Micro Projection Modules
  • Figure 89: Two Modules from Asia Optical
  • Figure 90: Light Blue Optics Projectors used at a Restaurant
  • Figure 91: BrightSign Digital Signage Display
  • Figure 92: Casio “Virtual Presenter”
  • Figure 93: HUDs Based on MicroVision PicoP Module at CES 2011
  • Figure 94: F-35 and Virtual HUD
  • Figure 95: Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture
  • Figure 96: Examples of Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture
  • Figure 97: VeinViewer from Christie Medical Holdings
  • Figure 98: Example Hybrid Projectors
  • Figure 99: Hybrid Illumination Systems From Casio
  • Figure 100: Hybrid Illumination System From BenQ
  • Figure 101: Projector Resolution Trend with Year
  • Figure 102: Projector Resolution Trend with Lumens
  • Figure 103: Projector Lumen Trend
  • Figure 104: Price Premium of Hybrid Projectors
  • Figure 105: Summary of End-User Reviews for Casio Hybrid Projectors
  • Figure 106: 1080p vs. WXGA
  • Figure 107: Hybrid Projector Forecast Methodology
  • Figure 108: Projector Market Development and Forecast
  • Figure 109: Projector Sales and Forecast by Region
  • Figure 110: Worldwide Projector Sales Forecast in Units by Market Segment
  • Figure 111: Corporate & Home Market Breakdown for Americas and the World
  • Figure 112: Institutional & Public Market Breakdown for Americas and the World
  • Figure 113: Worldwide Projector Brightness Development in the 1,000 - 7,000 Lm. Range
  • Figure 114: Projector Sales by Price Points in the Americas
  • Figure 115: Average Sales Price Trend of Projectors in the Americas
  • Figure 116: Price Development
  • Figure 117: Hybrid Projector Available Market based on Brightness Distribution
  • Figure 118: Worldwide TAM for Hybrid Projectors
  • Figure 119: Historic Projector Market Penetration Rates
  • Figure 120: Penetration Curves for Hybrid Projectors
  • Figure 121: Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast
  • Figure 122: Optimistic Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range
  • Figure 123: Expected Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range
  • Figure 124: Conservative Worldwide Hybrid Projector Forecast by Brightness Range
  • Figure 125: Price Decline Model for Projectors in the Americas
  • Figure 126: Expected Price Premium Decline of Hybrid Projectors
  • Figure 127: Expected Price Development of Hybrid Projectors by Brightness Range
  • Figure 128: Hybrid Projector Revenue Forecast

Table of Tables

  • Table 1: Pico/Micro/Hybrid Projector Market Segments
  • Table 2: Technology Combinations for Pico/Micro/Hybrid projectors
  • Table 3: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Education Market
  • Table 4: Pico, Micro and Mainstream Projector Differentiators
  • Table 5: Projector Market Segments for Projectors with Solid State Illumination
  • Table 6: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles
  • Table 7: Lumen Increases Through 2016 for Pico and Micro Projectors
  • Table 8: Hybrid Projector Evolution: Lumens and Resolution
  • Table 9: Roadmap of Events Expected to Affect Mobile Projector Sales
  • Table 10: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies vs. Micros/Picos
  • Table 11: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies vs Hybrids
  • Table 12: Specifications for the Vivitek Model D510
  • Table 13: Properties of Various Color Gamuts in Figure 21
  • Table 14: Optimum and Acceptable Peak LED Wavelengths for Displays
  • Table 15: Optimum and Acceptable Laser Wavelengths for Displays
  • Table 16: Luminance Limits of Projector Categories
  • Table 17: Illumination from Various Sources
  • Table 18: Resolution Requirements for Pico/Micro Projectors
  • Table 19: Minimum and Target Resolutions for Various Market Segments
  • Table 20: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions
  • Table 21: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions and Projector Lumens
  • Table 22: Technology Combinations for Pico, Micro and Hybrid Projectors
  • Table 23: Example Etendues
  • Table 24: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers
  • Table 25: Micron Microdisplay Specifications
  • Table 26: Syndiant Microdisplay Specifications
  • Table 27: Himax CS Microdisplay Specifications
  • Table 28: Laser Category Definitions
  • Table 29: Availability of Different Laser Categories
  • Table 30: Laser Wall Plug Efficiency
  • Table 31: Approaches to Speckle Reduction
  • Table 32: Picoprojector Power Consumption Categories
  • Table 33: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wired Formats
  • Table 34: 60MHz Bandwidth Allocation
  • Table 35: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wireless Formats
  • Table 36: Pico/Micro Projector Module Components
  • Table 37: Pico/Micro Projector Module Manufacturers
  • Table 38: Factors Affecting the Design of Hybrid Projectors
  • Table 39: Current Hybrid Projectors
  • Table 40: Use of Technology in 2000 Lm. - 5000 Lm. Hybrid Projectors
  • Table 41: Technology Factors that Would Eliminate the Need for Hybrid Projectors
  • Table 42: Factors Likely to Increase Lumen Output of Hybrid Projectors
  • Table 43: Hybrid Projector Evolution: Most Popular Lumen Output
  • Table 44: Hybrid Projector Evolution: Hybrid Upper Lumen Limit
  • Table 45: Projector Requirements for the Education Market
  • Table 46: School Technology Sales Season
  • Table 47: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Education Market
  • Table 48: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Business Market
  • Table 49: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technology in the Consumer Market
  • Table 50: Likes and Dislikes of Reviewers of Casio Hybrid Projectors
  • Table 51: Trend Factors Affecting Hybrid Projectors
  • Table 52: Projector Purchase Factor Development
  • Table 53: Purchase Decision Factor Rating
  • Table 54: Breakdown of Market Segments by Application
  • Table 55 Hybrid Projector Addressable Market
  • Table 56: Worldwide Hybrid Projector Revenue Forecast
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