2009 Low-Cost and Toy Projection Systems Report

2009 Low-Cost and Toy Projection Systems Report published by Insight Media in March, 2009. This report consists of 200 pages and the price starts from US $ 2950.

Introduction

Abstract

Report Objective:

The objective of this report is to identify the size and shape of the opportunities for low-cost and toy projectors, as well as identify the potential threat that low price can cause on the mainstream projection market. The information developed will help product planners, technologists, managers, engineers and researchers to plan, design and market low-cost and toy projectors.

• Description of the existing market and technologies used in low-cost and toy projectors
• Evaluation of the existing low-cost and toy projectors, including both performance and technology used to achieve the low prices
• Detailed discussions of the various markets for low-cost and toy projectors
• Particular attention is given to the toy market, since this market has largely been ignored by projector manufacturers and analysts alike
• Design trade-offs that can be made to reach a $300 price point for the general market and a $150 price point for the toy market.
• Evaluation of the merits and problems of the technologies usable in projectors costing less than $300, including discussion of:
  • Light source technologies, including LEDs, HID lamps and incandescent lamps
  • Display technologies usable, including DLP, 3LCD, color sequential and color filter array LCoS and color filter array LCD
  • Architectures and optics of the various designs
  • Special requirements of the toy market
• Example BOMs for projectors targeted at the low-cost market are given through 2012.
• Unit sales forecasts for 4 major low-cost projector categories through 2013:
  • Value projectors, broken down into two sub-categories: Home Theater and Other low cost projectors.
  • Toy projectors, broken down into two sub-categories: Toys for younger children and toys for older children and teens
  • Companion picoprojectors
  • Ultraportable projectors, broken down into two sub-categories: Low-lumen (AKA Pocket) and Low/medium-lumen output ultraportables
• Optimistic, expected and conservative unit sales forecasts through 2013 broken down by category
• Optimistic, expected and conservative revenue forecasts through 2013, broken down by category
• Information on 52 companies with known interests in low-cost or toy projectors
• Detailed evaluation of three existing low-cost/toy projectors.

Methodology:

This Low-Cost and Toy Projector Report draws extensively on the Insight Media 2009 LED- and Laser-based Ultraportable Projector Report and the 2008 Pico-Projector Market Segment Analysis for information on low-cost ultraportable and low-cost companion projectors, respectively. Updated information was used in evaluation of these two categories, plus all new information was used in the Toy and Value categories.

This report draws on a variety of sources for information on low-cost and toy projector markets, market needs and technology.

• In-person, telephone and e-mail interviews with key people in the projector business. This included people in the component, projector system and distribution aspects of the business.
• Trade show visits, including both the show floors and private suites
• Forecasts and other information on projection systems and related topics from other industry analysts
• Information provided by industry trade associations such as the Toy Industry Association
• News reports in the trade and general press
• Press releases from component manufacturers, projector manufacturers and distribution channels
• Web-based information sources

All available data was correlated to settle discrepancies. Forecasts, especially BOM cost estimate forecasts, were checked with experts in the industry with knowledge of the detailed cost structures of projection systems and components.

• This report should be purchased by manufacturers of projection systems, especially if they mass-market projectors, including low-cost or toy systems.
• The report is of value to people planning research, development or products for the projector market.
• Toy industry personnel concerned with the replacement of the current generation of toy film projectors with electronic projectors
• Engineers and researchers involved in low-cost and toy projection systems
• Investors looking for information to support due diligence
• Anyone interested in the current or future low-cost or toy projector market.

Table of Contents

1. Table of Contents

2. Introduction & Executive Summary

• 2.1. What is a Low Cost Projector?
• 2.2. Summary of Report Results
  • 2.2.1. Microdisplay Technology
  • 2.2.2. Light Source Technology
  • 2.2.3. Achieving Low Cost in a Projector Design
  • 2.2.4. Competitive Technologies
  • 2.2.5. Low Cost Projector Categories
  • 2.2.6. Projector Sales Summary

3. Technology

• 3.1. Design Tradeoffs
  • 3.1.1. Reduced Resolution
  • 3.1.2. Reduced Brightness
  • 3.1.3. Reduced Lifetime
  • 3.1.4. Reduced Color Gamut
  • 3.1.5. Reduced Uniformity
  • 3.1.6. Reduced Contrast
  • 3.1.7. Feature Elimination
• 3.2. Projector Architectures and Imaging Devices
  • 3.2.1. DLP Single-Panel Color-Sequential Systems
  • 3.2.2. Transmissive LCD
  • 3.2.3. Single-Panel LCOS
  • 3.2.4. Laser-Based Technologies
• 3.3. Illumination Systems
  • 3.3.1. Incandescent Lamps
  • 3.3.2. Low-Cost HID Lamps
  • 3.3.3. LEDs
  • 3.3.4. Lasers
• 3.4. Other Components
  • 3.4.1. Electronics
  • 3.4.2. Add-ins
  • 3.4.3. Other Projector Costs

4. Existing Low-Cost Projectors

5. Segment Analysis

• 5.1. Toy Projectors
  • 5.1.1. Product Description
  • 5.1.2. Use Models and Market
• 5.2. Companion Picoprojectors
  • 5.2.1. Product Description
  • 5.2.2. Use Models and Market
  • 5.2.3. Integrated Picoprojector
• 5.3. Low Lumen Output Ultraportables
  • 5.3.1. Product Description
  • 5.3.2. Use Models and Market
• 5.4. Low/Medium Ultraportable Projectors
  • 5.4.1. Product Description
  • 5.4.2. Use Models and Market
• 5.5. Value Projectors
  • 5.5.1. Product Description
  • 5.5.2. Use Models and Market

6. Supply Chain, Distribution & Business Models

• 6.1. Supply Chain Management
• 6.2. Distribution for Low Cost Projectors
  • 6.2.1. Toy Retail
  • 6.2.2. Novelty Electronic Store
  • 6.2.3. General Merchandiser
  • 6.2.4. Internet / E-tailer
  • 6.2.5. Warehouse Clubs
  • 6.2.6. Big Box Electronic Retail
  • 6.2.7. IT Retailer
  • 6.2.8. Office Supply
  • 6.2.9. ProAV
  • 6.2.10. Local Camera/Electronics Stores
• 6.3. Business Models
  • 6.3.1. The Marketing Challenge
  • 6.3.2. The Revenue Model
  • 6.3.3. Rental Market

7. Competitive Displays

8. BOM Estimates

• 8.1. LCOS Color Filter Array BOMs
• 8.2. Color Sequential LCOS BOM
• 8.3. 3LCD BOMs
• 8.4. LCD Color Filter Array BOMs
• 8.5. DLP BOMs
• 8.6. BOM Summary

9. Low-Cost Projector Forecasts

• 9.1. Total Front Projector Forecasts
  • 9.1.1. Optimistic and Conservative Forecasts
  • 9.1.2. Summary Front Projector Forecasts
• 9.2. Penetration Rates
• 9.3. Value Projector Forecasts
• 9.4. Toy Projector Forecasts
  • 9.4.1. Toy Projectors for Younger Children
  • 9.4.2. Toy Projectors for Older Children and Teens
  • 9.4.3. ASP and Revenue Forecasts
• 9.5. Low-Cost Companion Projector Forecasts
• 9.6. Low-Cost Ultraportable Projector Forecasts
• 9.7. Forecast Summary
  • 9.7.1. Unit Sales Forecasts for Low Cost Projectors
  • 9.7.2. Projector Average Selling Prices
  • 9.7.3. Low-Cost Projector Revenue Forecasts

10. Appendix A - Players and Photos

• 10.1. Companies with Known Involvement in Low-Cost Projectors
• 10.2. Photographic Survey of Representative Low-Cost Projectors
  • 10.2.1. Image Quality
  • 10.2.2. Projector Design & Key Components
  • 10.2.3. Torpedo
  • 10.2.4. Phantiq

Table of Figures

• Figure 1: Retail Price for a Low-end Mainstream and Value Projectors
• Figure 2: Unit Sales for Toy Projectors
• Figure 3: Lumen Output Limits for Ultraportable Projector Categories
• Figure 4: Expected Unit Sales Forecast of Low-cost Projectors by Category
• Figure 5: Optimistic and Conservative Unit Sales Compared to Expected
• Figure 6: ASP Forecast for Low-cost Projectors by Category
• Figure 7: Expected Revenue Forecast for Low-cost Projectors by Category
• Figure 8: Screen Diagonal vs Lumens
• Figure 9: Minimum Target Color Gamut for Displays
• Figure 10: Color Space for LED-Based Projectors
• Figure 11: Color Space of a Laser-Based Projection Display
• Figure 12: Telecentric vs Non-Telecentric Optical Systems
• Figure 13: Single-Panel LED-based DLP Projector Design
• Figure 14: Samsung SOM Linear Array Design
• Figure 15: Design of a Color Filter Array LCD Panel
• Figure 16: Colorimetry of Several Color Filter Array LCD Video Systems
• Figure 17: Design of a Lamp-Based 3LCD Projector
• Figure 18: Design of a LED-Based 3LCD Projector
• Figure 19: Dark Field and Bright Field Schlieren Optical Systems for Projection
• Figure 20: Operation of a PDLC - Scattering (Dark) State
• Figure 21: Operation of a PDLC - Non-scattering (Bright) State
• Figure 22: Color Sequential FLC Optical System
• Figure 23: 3M' s MPro110 and MPro220 Pico Projectors
• Figure 24: Color Filter Array on a LCOS Panel
• Figure 25: Color Gamut of LCOS CFA Projector
• Figure 26: Laser Scanning Systems
• Figure 27: Diffraction-based F-LCOS Optical System
• Figure 28: Cost vs Lumen Output for Various Illumination Technologies
• Figure 29: Spectral Output of Incandescent and UHP-type lamps
• Figure 30: Lamp and Cage
• Figure 31: Philips Ujoy Lamp
• Figure 32: Wavien DPR Lamp System
• Figure 33: ADLT 45W MH-Lamp
• Figure 34: Projectors with LED illumination
• Figure 35: Spectra of Blue, Green and Red LEDs
• Figure 36: Spectra of White LEDs
• Figure 37: LED Packages from Luminus Devices
• Figure 38: LED Binning by Color and Luminus Flux at Cree
• Figure 39: Mitsubishi LaserVue RPTV
• Figure 40: Projector Optical Architecture Based on Laser Illumination
• Figure 41: Cinemin Station (top) with iPod, Cinemin Stick (left) and Cinemin Swivel (right)
• Figure 42: 8GB CompactFlash Card & Hard Drive
• Figure 43: Epson MovieMate 55
• Figure 44: Front Projectors Priced Below $4,000
• Figure 45: Two $70 Digital Cameras
• Figure 46: Historical Toy Film Projectors
• Figure 47: Currently Available Toy Film Projectors
• Figure 48: Current or Recent Electronic Toy Projectors
• Figure 49: Smart Cycle from Fisher-Price
• Figure 50: Toy Products from Jakks Pacific
• Figure 51: 3M /Himax Light Engine and 3M MPro110 Companion Picoprojector
• Figure 52: The Logic Bolt Projector Phone
• Figure 53: Lumen Output Limits for Ultraportable Projector Categories
• Figure 54: Examples of Low-Lumen Ultraportable Projectors
• Figure 55: Meiloon Industrial Co Ltd, Ujoy Projectors
• Figure 56: The LG HS102, Samsung P400 & Taxan PL-105S LED-powered Projectors
• Figure 57: Typical Value Projectors
• Figure 58: Classes of Low Cost Projectors
• Figure 59: Channel Structure for Toy Projectors
• Figure 60: Distribution Options for Companion Picoprojectors
• Figure 61: Distribution Channels for Ultra Portable and Pocket Projectors
• Figure 62: Summary of Channel Structure for Low Cost Projectors
• Figure 63: Retail Price for a Low-end Mainstream and Value Projectors
• Figure 64: Sanyo PDG-DSU21N Mainstream/Value Projector
• Figure 65: Direct View LCD Screen Size that Can be Bought for $300
• Figure 66: Direct view 22" LCD Available in January 2009 for $280
• Figure 67: Front Projection Forecasts
• Figure 68: Revised Mobile Device Forecast from iSuppli
• Figure 69: Relationship Between Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Forecasts
• Figure 70: Front Projection Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Forecasts
• Figure 71: Expected Front Projection Forecast by Categories
• Figure 72: Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Forecast for Ultraportables
• Figure 73: Historical Consumer Electronics Penetration Rates
• Figure 74: Home Theater Projector Forecast
• Figure 75: Other Front Projector Forecast
• Figure 76: Home Theater Projector Estimated Unit Prices
• Figure 77: Other Front Projector Estimated Unit Prices
• Figure 78: Fraction of Home Theater and Other Front Projectors Under $300
• Figure 79: Unit Forecast for Home Theater Projectors Under $300
• Figure 80: Unit Forecast for Other Projectors Under $300
• Figure 81: Revenue Forecast for Home Theater Projectors Under $300
• Figure 82: Revenue Forecast for Other Front Projectors Under $300
• Figure 83: Toy Projector Sales in the US for Younger Children
• Figure 84: Worldwide Toy Projector Sales for Younger Children
• Figure 85: Forecast Range for World Wide Toy Projector Sales for Younger Children
• Figure 86: World Wide Toy Projector Sales for Older Children and Teens
• Figure 87: ASPs for Toy Projectors
• Figure 88: Revenue for Toy Projectors for Younger Children
• Figure 89: Revenue for Toy Projectors for Older Children and Teens
• Figure 90: Companion Projector Estimated Unit Prices
• Figure 91: Fraction of Companion Projectors Under $300
• Figure 92: Unit Forecast for Companion Projectors Under $300
• Figure 93: Revenue Forecast for Companion Projectors Under $300
• Figure 94: Low-Lumen UP Projector Estimated Unit Prices
• Figure 95: Low/Medium UP Projector Estimated Unit Prices
• Figure 96: Fraction of Ultraportable Projectors Under $300
• Figure 97: Unit Forecast for Low-Lumen Ultraportable Projectors Under $300
• Figure 98: Unit Forecast for Low/Medium Ultraportable Projectors Under $300
• Figure 99: Revenue Forecast for Low-lumen UP Projectors Under $300
• Figure 100: Revenue Forecast for Low/Medium UP Projectors Under $300
• Figure 101: Optimistic Low Cost Projector Unit Sales
• Figure 102: Expected Low Cost Projector Unit Sales
• Figure 103: Conservative Low Cost Projector Unit Sales
• Figure 104: Optimistic and Conservative Unit Sales Compared to Expected
• Figure 105: Optimistic Low Cost Projector Revenues
• Figure 106: Expected Low Cost Projector Revenues
• Figure 107: Conservative Low Cost Projector Revenues
• Figure 108: Projectors Reviewed - Torpedo (left), MMLP and Phantiq (right)
• Figure 109: Contrast Ratio
• Figure 110: Resolution & White Point
• Figure 111: Primary Colors
• Figure 112: Flesh Tones & Contrast
• Figure 113: Wii Main Menu
• Figure 114: Wii Sports Menu
• Figure 115: Wii Baseball
• Figure 116: The MMLP with Accessories
• Figure 117: MMLP Picture Gallery
• Figure 118: MMLP Lamp Removal Process
• Figure 119: The MMLP 150W Metal Halide, Double Ended Lamp
• Figure 120: MMLP Light Path & Key Internal Components
• Figure 121: Torpedo Entertainment Projector by Senario
• Figure 122: Torpedo Projector & Accessories
• Figure 123: Torpedo Photo Gallery
• Figure 124: Torpedo Lamp Removal
• Figure 125: Torpedo Electronic Components & Light Path
• Figure 126: Torpedo Key Optical Components
• Figure 127: Phantiq Game Projector by Phantastic
• Figure 128: Phantiq With Supplied Accessories
• Figure 129: Phantiq Photo Gallery
• Figure 131: Phantiq Lamp Removal
• Figure 132: Phantiq Fan Duct
• Figure 133: Phantiq Internal View (Side Elevation)
• Figure 134: Phantiq Imaging Module

Table of Tables

• Table 1: Pixel Counts, Areas and estimated Prices for Various DLP Imager Formats
• Table 2: Estimated UHP-type Lamp/Ballast Prices
• Table 3: Examples of Low-Cost Projectors
• Table 4: Summary of Average Gross Margins by Channel
• Table 5: Imager/Light Source Combinations Likely to Lead to Low Cost Projectors
• Table 6: LCOS CFA with Metal Halide Lamp
• Table 7: LCOS CFA with Mercury (Ujoy) Lamp
• Table 8: LCOS CFA with White LED
• Table 9: Toy LCOS CFA with White LED
• Table 10: LCOS CFA with Tungsten-Halogen Lamp
• Table 11: Color Sequential LCOS with RGB LEDs
• Table 12: Toy Color Sequential LCOS with RGB LEDs
• Table 13: 3LCD Projector with Ujoy Lamp
• Table 14: 3LCD Projector with RGB LEDs
• Table 15: LCD CFA with Metal Halide Lamp
• Table 16: LCD CFA with Mercury Lamp
• Table 17: WVGA LCD CFA with White LED
• Table 18: QVGA LCD CFA with White LED
• Table 19: LCD CFA with Tungsten-Halogen Lamp
• Table 20: W/SVGA DLP with Ujoy Lamp
• Table 21: W/SVGA DLP with RGB LEDs
• Table 22: HVGA DLP with Ujoy Lamp
• Table 23: HVGA DLP with RGB LEDs
• Table 24: BOM Summary
• Table 25: Source for Front Projection Forecasts
• Table 26: Consumer Products with Delayed Acceptance Dates
• Table 27: Estimated Projector Selling Prices
• Table 28: Companies with Known Involvement in Low-Cost Projectors
• Table 29: Summary of Opto-Mechanical Properties of Selected Projectors

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