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Video in the Emerging Connected Home: Connected device forecasts 2011-2016

“The absence of a cross-device, cross-manufacturer platform has not inhibited new services and devices entering the connected home. The stakes continue to be raised as connected devices become ever more commonplace and each of the big boys attempt to establish themselves as the definitive gatekeeper of premium content.” Andrew Ladbrook, Research Analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media.

Summary:

Includes connected device forecasts, by device type, region and key market, and analysis of each device' s expected role within the home. Also features strategic insight into how to successfully deliver a high-quality multiroom IP video service within the connected home.

Overview:

For now, the supposedly empowered user has very little choice for their multi-device multiroom experiences beyond Apple, Netflix and the iPlayer. However, it remains to be seen if these earlier movers can keep their advantages as connected devices become more commonplace and standards mature.

This first edition of Informa' s connected device forecasts tracks sales, household penetration and the installed base of in-home connected devices. This includes connected TVs, connected Blu-ray players, games consoles, media-streaming devices and hybrid set-top boxes. It also examines how quickly the connected TV will become the pre-eminent device and the impact this will have on sales of other devices.

As connected devices become more popular, the greater the need for video services - be that pay-TV or OTT - to deliver services to them. However, the challenges of delivering video in and around the connected home are many. For OTT players, the greatest concern remains how to get to the TV in the hope that revenues will follow. Pay-TV operators, having already overcome that hurdle, are looking to effectively and cheaply deliver multiroom experiences.

The quandary facing CE manufacturers is how to take advantage of forecasted burgeoning connected devices sales and whether they wish to be a gatekeeper or a service provider. If it is the latter, how can that service be attractive to users who own devices produced by competitors.

One problem that almost every player seems to be ignoring is the home network itself, which in many homes will simply not be good enough to cope with the demands that video will put upon it. It remains to be seen if any wireless technologies can bridge these gaps.

Operators and OTT players

  • Which connected devices are popular - both now and in the future
  • Which devices should the IP video service be launched on
  • The advantages and disadvantages of using new home-networking technologies to deliver IP video
  • Case studies highlighting new business models and video delivery from the cloud

CE manufacturers and equipment vendors

  • How the market is likely to develop over the next five years and which devices are going to be important
  • What technologies are important to include as standard in devices
  • How best to partner with content owners and providers
  • Plan for expected device trends and developments

Case studies include:

  • Telstra' s T-box
  • Sony' s Qriocity
  • Toshiba Places

Regions covered in our forecasts and analysis:

  • Africa Asia Pacific
  • Eastern Europe
  • Latin America
  • Middle East
  • North America
  • Western Europe

Plus individual country forecasts for:

  • Brazil
  • China
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Russia
  • Spain
  • US
  • Canada
  • France
  • India
  • Japan
  • South Korea
  • UK

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Table of Contents

Video in the Emerging Connected Home: Connected device forecasts 2011 - 2016

Executive Summary - PowerPoint file (26 Slides)

Connected devices in 2016: evolution, not revolution

  • Fig. 1: Global, in-home connected-device installed base, 2011-2016
  • Fig. 2: Global, connected-device installed base by device, 2011-2016
  • Fig. 3: TV and games-console sales, 2008-2010
  • Fig. 4: Global, games-console sales by market share, 2011
  • Fig. 5: Global, connected-TV and games-console installed base, 2011-2016
  • Fig. 6: Global, connected-TV and games-console sales, 2011-2016
  • Fig. 7: Years TV installed base exceeds games-console installed base
  • Fig. 8: Connected-TV-platform discontinuity, 2007-2010
  • Fig. 9: Global, media-streamer sales penetration, 2016
  • Fig. 10: Factors affecting consumer device purchases
  • Fig. 11: US, Blu-ray player and media-streamer prices, Jun-11
  • Fig. 12: Global, media-streamer and connected Blu-ray player sales, 2011-2016
  • Fig. 13: Expected household set-top box penetration, 2011
  • Fig. 14: Global, hybrid STBs launched
  • Fig. 15: Global, STB sales, 2011-2016
  • Fig. 16: Hybrid STB penetration of total STB installed base, 2011-2016

Online-video-to-TV use on the rise, but global usage will remain low

  • Fig. 1: Global, online-video-to-TV users by country, 2010-2015
  • Fig. 2: Online-video-to-TV, penetration of Internet users, 2010-2015
  • Fig. 3: Online-video-to-TV, events per year, 2010-2015
  • Fig. 4: Online-video-to-TV scorecard, 2011

Connected-TV landscape starts to mature, but it' s still too early to name the winners

  • Fig. 1: Over-the-top-TV viewers and proportion of Internet users, 2010-2015
  • Fig. 2: Overview of TV manufacturers' connected-TV platforms, Apr-11
  • Fig. 3: Sony' s Google TV
  • Fig. 4: US, selected manufacturers, prices of connected and unconnected TVs, Apr-11
  • Fig. 5: Google TV interface on Vizio TV, Jan-11
  • Fig. 6: Connected-TV multiscreen-video implementations
  • Fig. 7: Approximate connection rates of selected connected devices, end-2010
  • Fig. 8: Comparison of habits of DailyMotion users with best and worst connected-TV models, Dec-10
  • Fig. 9: Connected-TV value chain

BesTV looks to connected TVs to secure stake in pay TV market

  • Fig. 1: BesTV subscriptions, 2H07-2H10
  • Fig. 2: China, FTTH-B subscription growth, 2006-2010
  • Fig. 3: China, digital TV subscriptions, 2005-2010

HbbTV, with wide broadcaster adoption in Germany, extends to other key European markets

  • Fig. 1: Germany, HbbTV compliant devices in market, Jun-11
  • Fig. 2: Germany, broadcasters with HbbTV apps, Apr-11
  • Fig. 3: Germany, ARD HbbTV-enabled videotext page
  • Fig. 4: Germany, Bayerische Rundfunk HbbTV-enabled videotext page
  • Fig. 5: Germany, ARD HbbTV-enabled entry page
  • Fig. 6: Germany, ARD HbbTV-enabled EPG
  • Fig. 7: Europe, HbbTV status in different countries, Jun-11
  • Fig. 8: Europe, HbbTV status in different countries, Jun-11

Case study: Telstra' s connected-TV strategy

  • Fig. 1: Live channels available on T-Box
  • Fig. 2: The Telstra T-Box
  • Fig. 3: Telstra, fixed-broadband market share, 2005-2010
  • Fig. 4: Australia, household pay TV penetration, 2005-2010
  • Fig. 5: Telstra, retail fixed-broadband ARPU, 2H08-2H10
  • Fig. 6: Australia, fixed-broadband subscriptions by operator, 2006-2010
  • Fig. 7: Australia, VOD-service comparisons
  • Fig. 8: Telstra strategic SWOT analysis

CE device manufacturers and pay-TV players struggle with conflicting and complementary interests

  • Fig. 1: Alternative connected device strategies
  • Fig. 2: Recent TiVo pay-TV client wins, Jun-10 to Jan-11
  • Fig. 3: Manufacturers' set-top box strategies
  • Fig. 4: Horizon features
  • Fig. 5: Global, manufacturers' market share of connected-TV shipments, 2010
  • Fig. 6: Liberty Global/UPC European operational footprint
  • Fig. 7: Selected members of the RVU Alliance

First look: Sony' s Qriocity service

  • Fig. 1: Qriocity key facts
  • Fig. 2: Sony, early Qriocity prototype, 2009
  • Fig. 3: Sony Qriocity device availability, May-11
  • Fig. 4: Qriocity competitors
  • Fig. 5: Global, legal music-download and peer-to-peer users, 2010-2015
  • Fig. 6: Qriocity, key partnerships
  • Fig. 7: Qriocity SWOT analysis

Challenges of HD video streaming being overcome, but consumers unlikely benefit in near future

  • Fig. 1: Online-video traffic by type, 2010-2015
  • Fig. 2: Properties of in-home wireless technologies
  • Fig. 3: Bandwidth requirements for video streaming
  • Fig. 4: Broadcast and beamforming signal delivery
  • Fig. 5: Wi-Fi developments
  • Fig. 6: WHDI video-stream protection
  • Fig. 7: Selected wireless technologies, principle silicon manufacturers, May-11
  • Fig. 8: Support for digital-content-streaming DRM
  • Fig. 9: Selected wireless-video-streaming devices

In-home media sharing still failing users

  • Fig. 1: Video sharing between Apple devices
  • Fig. 2: Supported video-sharing technologies, selected devices
  • Fig. 3: Video sharing by DLNA , selected scenarios
  • Fig. 4: Video sharing via RVU
  • Fig. 5: Video-sharing-technology score card

Connected device forecasts 2011-2016 - Excel file

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